Forty Years of Climate and Land-Cover Change and its Effects on Tourism Resources in Kilimanjaro National Park
Kilungu, Halima ; Leemans, Rik ; Munishi, Pantaleo K.T. ; Nicholls, Sarah ; Amelung, Bas - \ 2019
Tourism Planning and Development 16 (2019). - ISSN 2156-8316 - p. 235 - 253.
attractions - climate - Kilimanjaro - land-cover - last chance tourism - tourism
This study explores the effects of observed changes in rainfall, temperature and land cover on the physical and sightseeing aspects of trekking in Kilimanjaro National Park. The impact analysis is organised around hazard-activity pairs approach, combinations of environmental change aspects (such as higher temperatures) and tourism activities (such as trekking and sightseeing). The results suggest that higher temperatures and reduced rainfall have lowered the risks of landslides, rock fall and mountain sickness, improving physical trekking conditions. Changes in land cover have affected sightseeing: there now are more flowers and groundsels to admire and less wildlife, waterfalls and snow. In the short term, the disappearing snow may give rise to “last chance tourism”, increasing visitation, but eventually, the loss of snow and forest cover will likely decrease the number of tourists. The paper concludes that effective management of the attractions in the expanding heathlands is the most promising option to limit the losses.
Spatial and temporal variation in rainfall erosivity in a Himalayan watershed
Ma, X. ; Noordwijk, M. van; Xu, J. ; Lu, X. - \ 2014
Catena 121 (2014). - ISSN 0341-8162 - p. 248 - 259.
land-cover - r-factor - climate - china - variability - catchment - river
Global climate change can modify rainfall patterns, leading to more extremes with associated erosion events. Rainfall erosivity, or the R-factor based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), indicates the potential water erosion risk and it plays an important role in water and soil conservation assessments. However, calculation of the R-factor requires high resolution data series, and thus we present an alternative model that can be used to accurately calculate the R-factor. Our erosivity model uses daily rainfall with advised regression parameters to estimate the R-factor in the watershed, which was selected by comparing the actual R-factor with 10 min high resolution rainfall data and the estimated R-factor with daily rainfall data from 1998 to 2002. The mean annual R-factor map was derived in the study using cokriging. The annual R-factor in the Kejie watershed was classified as medium and medium-strong erosivity, with a mean value of 3264 MJ.mm.ha- 1.h- 1.yr- 1 which represented a range from 2505 to 5538 MJ.mm.ha- 1.h- 1.yr- 1. A simple power relation between annual R-factor and annual rainfall was derived. The long-term change trend analysis showed no significant increasing or decreasing trend observed for the region; however, there was a significant increasing trend observed in two stations in September, one station in March. The annual R-factor with a coefficient of variation of 0.30 indicated inter-annual variation of the R-factor in the watershed was not so apparent. The intra-annual R-factor analysis illustrated the apparent seasonal and monthly distribution, about 65% from the summer season, and the maximum monthly R-factor occurring in July, followed by August and June. Consequently, the adjusted daily model can be applied in this Himalayan mountain area when high-resolution rainfall data is unavailable. The R-factor map and the simple power relation provided a useful tool for land-use planner and agriculture management in the Kejie watershed.
Importance of bistatic SAR features from TanDEM-X for forest mapping and monitoring
Schlund, M. ; Poncet, F. von; Hoekman, D.H. ; Kuntz, S. ; Schmullius, C. - \ 2014
Remote Sensing of Environment 151 (2014)sp. issue. - ISSN 0034-4257 - p. 16 - 26.
land-cover - southeast-asia - feature-selection - polarimetric sar - tropical-forest - decision tree - alos palsar - rain-forest - sir-c - classification
Deforestation and forest degradation are one of the important sources for human induced carbon dioxide emissions and their rates are highest in tropical forests. For man-kind, it is of great importance to track land-use conversions like deforestation, e.g. for sustainable forest management and land use planning, for carbon balancing and to support the implementation of international initiatives like REDD + (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation). SAR (synthetic aperture radar) sensors are suitable to reliably and frequently monitor tropical forests due to their weather independence. The TanDEM-X mission (which is mainly aimed to create a unique global high resolution digital elevation model) currently operates two X-band SAR satellites, acquiring interferometric SAR data for the Earth's entire land surface multiple times. The operational mission provides interferometric data as well as mono- and bistatic scattering coefficients. These datasets are homogenous, globally consistent and are acquired in high spatial resolution. Hence, they may offer a unique basic dataset which could be useful in land cover monitoring. Based on first datasets available from the TanDEM-X mission, the main goal of this research is to investigate the information content of TanDEM-X data for mapping forests and other land cover classes in a tropical peatland area. More specifically, the study explores the utility of bistatic features for distinguishing between open and closed forest canopies, which is of relevance in the context of deforestation and forest degradation monitoring. To assess the predominant information content of TanDEM-X data, the importance of information derived from the bistatic system is compared against the monostatic case, usually available from SAR systems. The usefulness of the TanDEM-X mission data, i.e. scattering coefficients, derived textural information and interferometric coherence is investigated via a feature selection process. The resulting optimal feature sets representing a monostatic and a bistatic SAR dataset were used in a subsequent classification to assess the added value of the bistatic TanDEM-X features in the separability of land cover classes. The results obtained indicated that especially the interferometric coherence significantly improved the separability of thematic classes compared to a dataset of monostatic acquisition. The bistatic coherence was mainly governed by volume decorrelation of forest canopy constituents and carries information about the canopy structure which is related to canopy cover. In contrast, the bistatic scattering coefficient had no significant contribution to class separability. The classification with coherence and textural information outperformed the classification with the monostatic scattering coefficient and texture by more than 10% and achieved an overall accuracy of 85%. These results indicate that TanDEM-X can serve as a valuable and consistent source for mapping and monitoring tropical forests.
Modeling larval malaria vector habitat locations using landscape features and cumulative precipitation measures
Mc Cann, R.S. ; Messina, J.P. ; MacFarlane, D.W. ; Bayoh, M.N. ; Vulule, J.M. ; Gimnig, J.E. ; Walker, E.D. - \ 2014
International Journal of Health Geographics 13 (2014). - ISSN 1476-072X - 12 p.
gambiae complex diptera - western kenya highlands - high-spatial-resolution - anopheles-gambiae - land-cover - child-mortality - breeding habitats - culicidae - africa - risk
BACKGROUND: Predictive models of malaria vector larval habitat locations may provide a basis for understanding the spatial determinants of malaria transmission. METHODS: We used four landscape variables (topographic wetness index [TWI], soil type, land use-land cover, and distance to stream) and accumulated precipitation to model larval habitat locations in a region of western Kenya through two methods: logistic regression and random forest. Additionally, we used two separate data sets to account for variation in habitat locations across space and over time. RESULTS: Larval habitats were more likely to be present in locations with a lower slope to contributing area ratio (i.e. TWI), closer to streams, with agricultural land use relative to nonagricultural land use, and in friable clay/sandy clay loam soil and firm, silty clay/clay soil relative to friable clay soil. The probability of larval habitat presence increased with increasing accumulated precipitation. The random forest models were more accurate than the logistic regression models, especially when accumulated precipitation was included to account for seasonal differences in precipitation. The most accurate models for the two data sets had area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.864 and 0.871, respectively. TWI, distance to the nearest stream, and precipitation had the greatest mean decrease in Gini impurity criteria in these models. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the usefulness of random forest models for larval malaria vector habitat modeling. TWI and distance to the nearest stream were the two most important landscape variables in these models. Including accumulated precipitation in our models improved the accuracy of larval habitat location predictions by accounting for seasonal variation in the precipitation. Finally, the sampling strategy employed here for model parameterization could serve as a framework for creating predictive larval habitat models to assist in larval control efforts.
Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology
Marco, M. Di; Buchanan, G.M. ; Szantoi, Z. ; Holmgren, M. ; Grottolo Marasini, G. ; Gross, D. ; Tranquili, S. ; Boitani, L. ; Rondini, C. - \ 2014
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. Biological sciences 369 (2014). - ISSN 0962-8436 - 12 p.
protected areas - population declines - tropical forest - human footprint - time-series - land-cover - strategy - deforestation - 21st-century - ecosystem
Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine learning models to identify correlates of extinction risk in African terrestrial mammals using a set of variables belonging to four classes: species distribution state, human pressures, conservation response and species biology. We derived information on distribution state and human pressure from satellite- borne imagery. Variables in all four classes were identified as important predictors of extinction risk, and interactions were observed among variables in different classes (e.g. level of protection, human threats, species distribution ranges). Species biology had a key role in mediating the effect of external variables. The model was 90% accurate in classifying extinction risk status of species, but in a few cases the observed and modelled extinction risk mismatched. Species in this condition might suffer from an incorrect classification of extinction risk (hence require reassessment). An increased availability of satellite imagery combined with improved resolution and classification accuracy of the resulting maps will play a progressively greater role in conservation monitoring.
Can local landscape attributes explain species richness patterns at macroecological scales?
Xu, C. ; Huang, Z. ; Chi, T. ; Chen, B.J.W. ; Zhang, M. ; Liu, M. - \ 2014
Global Ecology and Biogeography 23 (2014)4. - ISSN 1466-822X - p. 436 - 445.
habitat heterogeneity - plant diversity - nature-reserves - land-cover - biodiversity - climate - energy - china - models - fragmentation
Although the influence on species richness of landscape attributes representing landscape composition and spatial configuration has been well documented at landscape scales, its effects remain little understood at macroecological scales. We aim to assess the role of landscape attributes, and their relative importance compared with climate, habitat heterogeneity and human influence (CHH) in particular, in shaping broad-scale richness patterns.
Fusion of MODIS Images Using Kriging With External Drift
Ribeiro Sales, M.H. ; Souza, C.M. ; Kyriakidis, P.C. - \ 2013
IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 51 (2013)4. - ISSN 0196-2892 - p. 2250 - 2259.
spatial-resolution - land-cover - wavelet decomposition - prediction - forest - brazil - ihs
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has been used in several remote sensing studies, including land, ocean, and atmospheric applications. The advantages of this sensor are its high spectral resolution, with 36 spectral bands; its high revisiting frequency; and its public domain availability. The first seven bands of MODIS are in the visible, near-infrared, and mid-infrared spectral regions of the electromagnetic spectrum which are sensitive to spectral changes due to deforestation, burned areas, and vegetation regrowth, among other land-use changes, making near-real-time forest monitoring a suitable application. However, the different spatial resolution of the spectral bands placed in these spectral regions imposes challenges to combine them in forest monitoring applications. In this paper, we present an algorithm based on geostatistics to downscale five 500-m MODIS pixel bands to match two 250-m pixel bands. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of this method in relation to existing downscaling algorithms. Our proposed method merges the data to the best spatial resolution and better retains the spectral information of the original data.
Hyper-temporal remote sensing helps in relating epiphyllous liverworts and evergreen forests
Jiang, Y. ; Bie, C.A.J.M. de; Wang, T. ; Skidmore, A.K. ; Liu, X. ; Song, S. ; Shao, X. - \ 2013
Journal of Vegetation Science 24 (2013)2. - ISSN 1100-9233 - p. 214 - 226.
brazilian atlantic forest - vegetation cover - rain-forest - bryophyte communities - satellite imagery - time-series - sensor data - costa-rica - land-cover - china
Is there, at the macro-habitat scale, a relationship between the fraction of evergreen forests and the presence probability of epiphyllous liverworts? Can these two parameters be estimated and mapped using an NDVI-based indicator that is derived from time-series of SPOT-VGT imagery?
Modelling the spatial distribution of linear landscape elements in Europe
Zanden, E.H. van der; Verburg, P.H. ; Mücher, C.A. - \ 2013
Ecological Indicators 27 (2013). - ISSN 1470-160X - p. 125 - 136.
agricultural landscapes - land-cover - species richness - rural landscapes - great-britain - hedgerows - biodiversity - ecology - habitat - context
Linear landscape elements, such as ditches, hedgerows, lines of trees and field margins, provide important habitats and ecosystem services and function as ecological infrastructure for species within agricultural landscapes. Spatial maps of the distribution of these elements are needed to better represent landscape structure within regional scale environmental assessments. We present wall-to-wall maps for green lines, ditches and grass margins for Europe, using spatial modelling of ground observations on linear features from the 2009 LUCAS (land use/cover area frame statistical survey) database. We compare different spatial interpolation methods, ranging from spatial autocorrelation-based methods to methods that explain the occurrence of elements based on biophysical and socio-economic information. Our results are 1 km2 resolution maps of the occurrence of linear landscape elements for Europe. Independent validation of green lines based on aerial photographs showed the best results for interpolation based on regionally estimated regressions relating the occurrence of landscape elements to environmental and socio-economic location factors. The results confirm the importance of the underlying biophysical and socio-economic factors on the presence and abundance of linear landscape elements. However, the total explanatory strength of the considered factors is moderate and a considerable uncertainty in the exact distribution remains.
On the delineation of tropical vegetation types with an emphasis on forest/savanna transitions
Torello-Raventos, M. ; Feldpausch, T.R. ; Veenendaal, E.M. ; Sykora, K.V. - \ 2013
Plant Ecology & Diversity 6 (2013)1. - ISSN 1755-0874 - p. 101 - 137.
plant-communities - rain-forest - land-cover - african vegetation - physiognomic classification - ecological classification - cerrado vegetation - savanna vegetation - brazilian cerrado - climate-change
Background: There is no generally agreed classification scheme for the many different vegetation formation types occurring in the tropics. This hinders cross-continental comparisons and causes confusion as words, such as ‘forest’ and ‘savanna’ have different meanings to different people. Tropical vegetation formations are therefore usually imprecisely and/or ambiguously defined in modelling, remote sensing and ecological studies. Aims: To integrate observed variations in tropical vegetation structure and floristic composition into a single classification scheme. Methods: Using structural and floristic measurements made on three continents, discrete tropical vegetation groupings were defined on the basis of overstorey and understorey structure and species compositions by using clustering techniques. Results: Twelve structural groupings were identified based on height and canopy cover of the dominant upper-stratum and the extent of lower-strata woody shrub cover and grass cover. Structural classifications did not, however, always agree with those based on floristic composition; especially for plots located in the forest-savanna transition zone. This duality is incorporated into a new tropical vegetation classification scheme. Conclusions: Both floristics and stand structure are important criteria for the meaningful delineation of tropical vegetation formations, especially in the forest/savanna transition zone. A new tropical vegetation classification scheme incorporating this information has been developed.
The significance of using satellite imagery data only in Ecological Niche Modelling of Iberian herps
Sillero, N. ; Brito, J.C. ; Martin-Alfageme, S. ; Garcia-Melendez, E. ; Toxopeus, A.G. ; Skidmore, A.K. - \ 2012
Acta Herpetologica 7 (2012)2. - ISSN 1827-9635 - p. 221 - 237.
tropical forest regeneration - noaa avhrr data - land-cover - species distributions - vegetation dynamics - climate - biodiversity - prediction - conservation - amphibians
The environmental data used to calculate ecological niche models (ENM) are obtained mainly from ground-based maps (e.g., climatic interpolated surfaces). These data are often not available for less developed areas, or may be at an inappropriate scale, and thus to obtain this information requires fieldwork. An alternative source of eco-geographical data comes from satellite imagery. Three sets of ENM were calculated exclusively with variables obtained (1) from optical and radar images only and (2) from climatic and altitude maps obtained by ground-based methods. These models were compared to evaluate whether satellite imagery can accurately generate ENM. These comparisons must be made in areas with well-known species distribution and with available satellite imagery and ground-based data. Thus, the study area was the south-western part of Salamanca (Spain), using amphibian and reptiles as species models. Models' discrimination capacity was measured with ROC plots. Models' covariation was measured with a Spatial Spearman correlation. Four modelling techniques were used (Bioclim, Mahalanobis distance, GARP and Maxent). The results of this comparison showed that there were no significant differences between models generated using remotely sensed imagery or ground-based data. However, the models built with satellite imagery data exhibited a larger diversity of values, probably related to the higher spatial resolution of the satellite imagery. Satellite imagery can produce accurate ENM, independently of the modelling technique or the dataset used. Therefore, biogeographical analysis of species distribution in remote areas can be accurately developed only with variables from satellite imagery.
Changes in the vegetation composition of hay meadows between 1993 and 2009 in the Picos de Europa and implications for nature conservation
Prince, H.E. ; Bunce, R.G.H. ; Jongman, R.H.G. - \ 2012
Journal for Nature Conservation 20 (2012)3. - ISSN 1617-1381 - p. 162 - 169.
land-cover - landscape - plant - spain - biodiversity - environment - diversity - patterns - system
The Picos de Europa are a range of predominantly Carboniferous Limestone and Sandstone mountains mainly in the Cantabrian region of northern Spain. The highest peaks are precipitous and reach 2600 m. There are complex gradients between Lusitanian, Alpine and Mediterranean environmental zones, as well as variable soil types. In combination with the long history of traditional agricultural management, a wide range of diverse habitats and species is present. The herb-rich hay meadows have long been recognised as having a high nature conservation value but, as elsewhere in European mountains, such grasslands are threatened by changing agricultural practices. Accordingly, in 1993, 92 quadrats were recorded using a restricted list of indicator species from stratified random samples. The authors repeated the sample in 2009. Changed land use had only occurred in approximately 3% of meadows, however, farmyard manure was no longer used, probably because of shortage of labour. Statistical analysis of the vegetation data showed a range of significant changes consistent with the increased use of slurry, as well as re-seeding of some fields. The grass swards had not only become denser, with fewer species present, but there was also a loss of sensitive indicators especially of calcareous conditions and open vegetation. By contrast, competitors had increased and the vegetation had become simpler, with the balance of vegetation types shifting to more nutrient rich conditions. These changes have mainly occurred in the more fertile meadows used for silage. The core of about 35% of herb-rich meadows, mainly cut for hay, has remained relatively stable but the results show that they are at risk if the current trend continues. If management practices that form the core of traditional agriculture are not maintained, one of the most important resources of herb-rich meadows in Europe will be lost.
Integration of multi-sensor data to assess grassland dynamics in a Yellow River sub-watershed
Ouyang, W. ; Hao, F. ; Skidmore, A.K. ; Groen, T.A. ; Toxopeus, A.G. ; Wang, T. - \ 2012
Ecological Indicators 18 (2012)1. - ISSN 1470-160X - p. 163 - 170.
qinghai-xizang plateau - time-series - land-cover - west-africa - vegetation - modis - variability - patterns - imagery - china
Grasslands form the dominant land cover in the upper reaches of the Yellow River and provide a reliable indicator by being strongly correlated with regional terrestrial ecological status. Remote sensing can provide information useful for vegetation quality assessments, but no single sensor can meet the needs for the high temporal-spatial resolution required for such assessments on a watershed scale. To observe long-term grassland dynamics in the Longliu Watershed located in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat images were integrated to obtain Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. The MODIS images were used to identify patterns of monthly variation. With the temporal dynamics of NDVI provided by the MODIS images, an exponential regression model was obtained that described the relationship between Julian day and NDVI. Four time-series data sets from multi-spectral sensors were constructed to obtain regional grassland NDVI information from 1977 to 2006 in the Longliu Watershed. Using the daily NDVI correlation coefficient, NDVI values for different days were obtained from Landsat series images, standardised to the same day and integrated into TM format by using NDVI coefficients between the four different sensors. Thus, the NDVI data obtained from multi-sensors on different days were integrated into a comparable format. A regression analysis correlating the NDVI data from two sensors with fresh grass biomass showed that the integration procedure was reliable.
A longitudinal study on Anopheles mosquito larval abundance in distinct geographical and environmental settings in western Kenya
Imbahale, S.S. ; Paaijmans, K.P. ; Mukabana, W.R. ; Lammeren, R.J.A. van; Githeko, A.K. ; Takken, W. - \ 2011
Malaria Journal 10 (2011). - ISSN 1475-2875 - 13 p.
malaria vector control - gambiae complex - spatial-distribution - land-cover - habitat characterization - transmission - highlands - arabiensis - identification - interventions
Background - As the ecology of mosquito larvae can be complex there is need to develop a rational framework for undertaking larval ecological studies. Local environmental characteristics, such as altitude, climate and land use, can significantly impact on phenology and population dynamics of mosquito larvae, and indirectly affect the dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases. The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of implementing an integrated approach to larval source management under the distinct ecological settings. Methods - The study was conducted in two highland villages and one village, at a lower altitude, in the Lake Victoria basin, where malaria is endemic and transmitted by the same Anopheles mosquito species. In each village the stability of mosquito larval habitats was classified as either temporary or permanent. The productivity of these habitat types was quantified by carrying out weekly larval sampling using a standard dipping method for a period of two years. During sampling the physical characteristic of the larval habitat, including the vegetation cover were noted. Ambient temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were recorded on a 21 × Micro-datalogger in each study site. Results - Anopheles gambiae sensu lato larvae were found in all study sites. Anopheles arabiensis was more abundant (93%) in Nyalenda (Lake Victoria basin) and Fort Ternan (highland area; 71%). In Lunyerere (highland area), An. gambiae sensu stricto comprised 93% of the total An. gambiae s.l. larvae. Larvae of An. gambiae s.l. mosquitoes were present in both temporary and permanent habitats with monthly variations dependent on rainfall intensity and location. Anopheles larvae were more likely to be found in man-made as opposed to natural habitats. Grassy habitats were preferred and were, therefore, more productive of Anopheles larvae compared to other habitat types. Weekly rainfall intensity led to an increase or decrease in mosquito larval abundance depending on the location. Conclusion - The majority of mosquito breeding habitats were man made in all sites. Both temporary and permanent habitats were suitable for An. gambiae breeding. In Fort Ternan temporary sites were favoured for mosquito breeding above permanent sites. Significant differences in larval abundance were found depending on weekly rainfall intensity. Larval source management programmes should target permanent and temporary habitats equally and work closely with land and home owners as a majority of the breeding habitats are man made
A tool for rapid assessment of erosion risk to support decision-making and policy development at the Ngenge watershed in Uganda
Mutekanga, F.P. ; Visser, S.M. ; Stroosnijder, L. - \ 2010
Geoderma 160 (2010)2. - ISSN 0016-7061 - p. 165 - 174.
soil-erosion - land-cover - evapotranspiration - catchment - australia - highlands - ethiopia - forest - stream - basin
This study tests a rapid, user-friendly method for assessing changes in erosion risk, which yields information to aid policy development and decision-making for sustainable natural resources management. There is currently a lack of timely, up-to-date and current information to support policy development on sustainable natural resources management in Uganda. The study was carried out in the Ngenge watershed, a typical catchment in the Ugandan Highlands, characterised by deforestation in favour of subsistence agriculture without adequate soil and water conservation measures. The watershed is experiencing soil erosion, sedimentation and flooding problems which are threatening agricultural productivity and food security. Sustainable management of environmental resources is needed to ensure a livelihood for the rural population which is dependent on the land. Historical erosion risk was evaluated in three steps using multi-temporal satellite data. First, current erosion risk was assessed by combining slope and vegetation cover during periods of high intensity rainfall. The data used for the assessment was obtained from public (free) satellite images. Erosion risk was then linked to land use and finally to the change in vegetation cover over the years 1980-2000. The analysis of erosion risk using rainfall, slope and NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetative Index) as a proxy for vegetation cover gives an indication of the current erosion risk in the area. The results of historical vegetation cover change analysis indicate an overall increase in areas under erosion risk in the study area from 1980 to 2000. This method of erosion risk mapping provides a quick and straightforward means for identifying priority areas for interventions for soil and water resource management. Considering that resources are limited, the interventions to be appropriate have to be focused mainly on areas affected by degradation.
Relevant microclimate for determining the development rate of malaria mosquitoes and possible implications of climate change
Paaijmans, K.P. ; Imbahale, S.S. ; Thomas, M.B. ; Takken, W. - \ 2010
Malaria Journal 9 (2010). - ISSN 1475-2875 - 8 p.
east-african highlands - anopheles-gambiae - western kenya - infectious-diseases - land-cover - temperature - risk - transmission - resurgence - culicidae
Background The relationship between mosquito development and temperature is one of the keys to understanding the current and future dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Many process-based models use mean air temperature to estimate larval development times, and hence adult vector densities and/or malaria risk. Methods Water temperatures in three different-sized water pools, as well as the adjacent air temperature in lowland and highland sites in western Kenya were monitored. Both air and water temperatures were fed into a widely-applied temperature-dependent development model for Anopheles gambiae immatures, and subsequently their impact on predicted vector abundance was assessed. Results Mean water temperature in typical mosquito breeding sites was 4-6°C higher than the mean temperature of the adjacent air, resulting in larval development rates, and hence population growth rates, that are much higher than predicted based on air temperature. On the other hand, due to the non-linearities in the relationship between temperature and larval development rate, together with a marginal buffering in the increase in water temperature compared with air temperature, the relative increases in larval development rates predicted due to climate change are substantially less. Conclusions Existing models will tend to underestimate mosquito population growth under current conditions, and may overestimate relative increases in population growth under future climate change. These results highlight the need for better integration of biological and environmental information at the scale relevant to mosquito biology.
An exploratory survey of malaria prevalence and people's knowledge, attitudes and practices of mosquito larval source management for malaria control in western Kenya
Imbahale, S.S. ; Fillinger, U. ; Githeko, A. ; Mukabana, W.R. ; Takken, W. - \ 2010
Acta Tropica 115 (2010)3. - ISSN 0001-706X - p. 248 - 256.
dar-es-salaam - insecticide-treated nets - anopheles-gambiae s.l. - vector control - environmental-management - microbial larvicides - spatial-distribution - large-scale - land-cover - highlands
A large proportion of mosquito larval habitats in urban and rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa are man-made. Therefore, community-based larval source management (LSM) could make a significant contribution to malaria control in an integrated vector management approach. Here we implemented an exploratory study to assess malaria prevalence and people's knowledge, attitudes and practices on malaria transmission, its control and the importance of man-made aquatic habitats for the development of disease vectors in one peri-urban lowland and two rural highland communities in western Kenya. We implemented monthly cross-sectional malaria surveys and administered a semi-structured questionnaire in 90 households, i.e. 30 households in each locality. Malaria prevalence was moderate (3.2–6.5%) in all sites. Nevertheless, residents perceived malaria as their major health risk. Thirty-two percent (29/90) of all respondents did not know that mosquitoes are responsible for the transmission of malaria. Over two-thirds (69/90) of the respondents said that mosquito breeding site could be found close to their homes but correct knowledge of habitat characteristics was poor. Over one-third (26/67) believed that immature mosquitoes develop in vegetation. Man-made pools, drainage channels and burrow pits were rarely mentioned. After explaining where mosquito larvae develop, 56% (50/90) felt that these sites were important for their livelihood. Peri-urban residents knew more about mosquitoes’ role in malaria transmission, could more frequently describe the larval stages and their breeding habitats, and were more likely to use bed nets even though malaria prevalence was only half of what was found in the rural highland sites (p <0.05). This was independent of their education level or socio-economic status. Hence rural communities are more vulnerable to malaria infection, thus calling for additional methods to complement personal protection measures for vector control. Larval source management was the most frequently mentioned (30%) tool for malaria control but was only practiced by 2 out of 90 respondents. Targeting the larval stages of malaria vectors is an underutilized malaria prevention measure. Sustainable elimination or rendering of such habitats unsuitable for larval development needs horizontally organized, community-based programs that take people's needs into account. Innovative, community-based training programs need to be developed to increase people's awareness of man-made vector breeding sites and acceptable control methods need to be designed in collaboration with the communities
Disaggregating and mapping crop statistics using hypertemporal remote sensing
Khan, M.R. ; Bie, C.A.J.M. de; Keulen, H. van; Smaling, E.M.A. ; Real, R. - \ 2010
International Journal of applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 12 (2010)1. - ISSN 0303-2434 - p. 36 - 46.
land-cover - time-series - modis data - ndvi data - vegetation - model - classification - climate - africa - europe
Governments compile their agricultural statistics in tabular form by administrative area, which gives no clue to the exact locations where specific crops are actually grown. Such data are poorly suited for early warning and assessment of crop production. 10-Daily satellite image time series of Andalucia, Spain, acquired since 1998 by the SPOT Vegetation Instrument in combination with reported crop area statistics were used to produce the required crop maps. Firstly, the 10-daily (1998–2006) 1-km resolution SPOT-Vegetation NDVI-images were used to stratify the study area in 45 map units through an iterative unsupervised classification process. Each unit represents an NDVI-profile showing changes in vegetation greenness over time which is assumed to relate to the types of land cover and land use present. Secondly, the areas of NDVI-units and the reported cropped areas by municipality were used to disaggregate the crop statistics. Adjusted R-squares were 98.8% for rainfed wheat, 97.5% for rainfed sunflower, and 76.5% for barley. Relating statistical data on areas cropped by municipality with the NDVI-based unit map showed that the selected crops were significantly related to specific NDVI-based map units. Other NDVI-profiles did not relate to the studied crops and represented other types of land use or land cover. The results were validated by using primary field data. These data were collected by the Spanish government from 2001 to 2005 through grid sampling within agricultural areas; each grid (block) contains three 700 m × 700 m segments. The validation showed 68%, 31% and 23% variability explained (adjusted R-squares) between the three produced maps and the thousands of segment data. Mainly variability within the delineated NDVI-units caused relatively low values; the units are internally heterogeneous. Variability between units is properly captured. The maps must accordingly be considered “small scale maps”. These maps can be used to monitor crop performance of specific cropped areas because of using hypertemporal images. Early warning thus becomes more location and crop specific because of using hypertemporal remote sensing.
Identifying the most productive breeding sites for malaria mosquitoes in The Gambia
Fillinger, U. ; Sombroek, H. ; Majambere, S. ; Loon, E. van; Takken, W. ; Lindsay, S.W. - \ 2009
Malaria Journal 8 (2009). - ISSN 1475-2875 - 14 p.
dar-es-salaam - polymerase-chain-reaction - western kenyan highlands - anopheles-gambiae - microbial larvicides - habitat productivity - spatial-distribution - larval habitats - land-cover - rural town
Background: Ideally larval control activities should be targeted at sites that generate the most adult vectors, thereby reducing operational costs. Despite the plethora of potential mosquito breeding sites found in the floodplains of the Gambia River, about 150 km from its mouth, during the rainy season, only a small proportion are colonized by anophelines on any day. This study aimed to determine the characteristics of larval habitats most frequently and most densely populated by anopheline larvae and to estimate the numbers of adults produced in different habitats. Methods: A case-control design was used to identify characteristics of sites with or without mosquitoes. Sites were surveyed for their physical water properties and invertebrate fauna. The characteristics of 83 sites with anopheline larvae (cases) and 75 sites without (controls) were collected between June and November 2005. Weekly adult productivity was estimated with emergence traps in water-bodies commonly containing larvae. Results: The presence of anopheline larvae was associated with high invertebrate diversity (Odds Ratio, OR 11.69, 95% CI 5.61-24.34, p <0.001), the presence of emergent vegetation (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.35-5.95, p = 0.006), and algae (at borderline significance; OR 1.87, 95% CI 0.96-3.618, p = 0.065). The density of larvae was reduced in sites that were larger than 100 m in perimeter (OR 0.151; 95% CI 0.060-0.381, p <0.001), where water was tidal (OR 0.232; 95% CI 0.101-0.533, p = 0.001), vegetation shaded over 25% of the habitat (OR 0.352; 95% CI 0.136-0.911, p = 0.031) and water conductivity was above 2,000 mu S/cm (OR 0.458; 95% CI 0.220-0.990, p = 0.048). Pools produced the highest numbers of Anopheles gambiae adults compared with rice fields, floodwater areas close to the edge of the floodplain or close to the river, and stream fringes. Pools were characterized by high water temperature and turbidity, low conductivity, increased presence of algae, and absence of tidal water. Conclusion: There are few breeding sites that produce a high number of adult vectors in the middle reaches of the river in The Gambia, whereas those with low productivity are larger in area and can be found throughout the rainy season. Even though risk factors could be identified for the presence and density of larvae and productivity of habitats, the results indicate that anti-larval interventions in this area of The Gambia cannot be targeted in space or time during the rainy season
Landsliding and its multiscale influence on mountainscapes
Restrepo, C. ; Walker, L.R. ; Bussmann, R. ; Claessens, L. - \ 2009
Bioscience 59 (2009)8. - ISSN 0006-3568 - p. 685 - 698.
puerto-rican landslides - british-columbia - new-zealand - land-cover - vegetation - forest - soil - disturbance - succession - recovery
Landsliding is a complex process that modifies mountainscapes worldwide. Its severe and sometimes long-lasting negative effects contrast with the less-documented positive effects on ecosystems, raising numerous questions about the dual role of landsliding, the feedbacks between biotic and geomorphic processes, and, ultimately, the ecological and evolutionary responses of organisms. We present a conceptual model in which feedbacks between biotic and geomorphic processes, landslides, and ecosystem attributes are hypothesized to drive the dynamics of mountain ecosystems at multiple scales. This model is used to integrate and synthesize a rich, but fragmented, body of literature generated in different disciplines, and to highlight the need for profitable collaborations between biologists and geoscientists. Such efforts should help identify attributes that contribute to the resilience of mountain ecosystems, and also should help in conservation, restoration, and hazard assessment. Given the sensitivity of mountains to land-use and global climate change, these endeavors are both relevant and timely