Structure in Creativity; effects of structuring tools on results of participatory scenario development workshops
Vliet, M. van; Kok, K. ; Veldkamp, T. ; Sarkki, S. - \ 2012
Futures 44 (2012)8. - ISSN 0016-3287 - p. 746 - 760.
fuzzy cognitive maps - consensual assessment technique - land-use - multiscale narratives - ia perspective - conservation - europe
Scenario projects increasingly combine quantitative models with qualitative, participatory products in order to make scenarios more coherent, relevant, credible and creative. A major advantage of adding participatory, qualitative scenarios is their ability to produce creative, innovative, non-linear products. Integrating participatory results with quantitative models, however, can lower their credibility of both products when they are not consistent. The low level of structure in most participatory output limits possibilities for linking them to quantitative models. More structure could be introduced, but this might hamper the creativity of the workshop results: outcomes (process) and outputs (storylines). This paper tests a new method to analyse the creativity of scenario storylines in order to analyse the effects of structuring tools on the creativity of workshop results. Both the perceptions of participants and the resulting storylines of nine case studies across Europe are used in the analysis. Results show that the use of structuring tools can have a negative effect on the creativity of the workshop, but the influence seems to vary between the different tools. The study shows the benefit of using indicators for the scenario quality criteria. More research is needed to develop indicators for other scenario quality criteria, to improve those developed here and to study the impact of structuring tools with a larger data set.
Using a participatory scenario development toolbox: added values and impact on quality of scenarios
Kok, K. ; Vliet, M. van - \ 2011
Journal of Water and Climate Change 2 (2011)2-3. - ISSN 2040-2244 - p. 87 - 105.
fuzzy cognitive maps - multiscale narratives - ia perspective - conservation - europe - scales
To capture a system's uncertainty, a participatory, integrated approach is a prerequisite of many scenario development projects. Increasingly, a toolbox of methods is employed to facilitate stakeholder input. In this paper we evaluate four potential added values of using a toolbox of methods and the effect on the quality of resulting scenarios. Ten case studies within a large project (SCENES), that set out to develop participatory scenarios for Europe's freshwaters, are used to test our hypotheses. We analysed a first series of scenario workshops, evaluating (dis)advantages of the toolbox and the quality of scenarios as perceived by stakeholders and local organisers. As can be deduced from the resulting scenarios, results indicate that all hypothesised added values materialised to some extent. Using a toolbox enlarges the possibilities to: (1) adapt to local circumstances; (2) adapt to a variety of stakeholders; (3) compare results across scales and across case studies; and (4) facilitate a link of models and stories. However, a careful balance has to be found between the length of workshop, number and type of tools employed, and previous experience of stakeholders and local organisers. The results have implications for practitioners setting out to develop water or climate adaptation scenarios that could benefit from all the added values tested here. Finally, employing a toolbox can positively influence scenario quality, although more structured tests are needed.
Linking stakeholders and modellers in scenario studies: The use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as a communication and learning tool
Vliet, M. van; Kok, K. ; Veldkamp, A. - \ 2010
Futures 42 (2010)1. - ISSN 0016-3287 - p. 1 - 14.
multiscale narratives - ia perspective - conservation
Within large integrative scenario studies, it is often problematic to fully link narrative storylines and quantitative models. This paper demonstrates the potential use of a highly participatory scenario development framework that involves a mix of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative methods. The assumption is that the use of semi-quantitative methods will structure the participatory output, which provides a solid base for quantification. It should further facilitate the communication between stakeholders and modellers. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps is the main semi-quantitative method and has a central place in the proposed framework. The paper provides a detailed description of its implementation in participatory workshops, also because of a lack of documented testing of its implementation. We tested Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as part of the framework in two training sessions; both gave encouraging results. Results show that the tool provides a structured, semi-quantitative understanding of the system perceptions of a group of participants. Participants perceived the method as easy to understand and easy to use in a short period of time. This supports the hypothesis that Fuzzy Cognitive Maps can be used as part of a scenario development framework and that the new framework can help to bridge the gap between storylines and models.
Combining two approaches of integrated scenario development to combat desertification in the Guadalentín watershed, Spain
Kok, K. ; Delden, H. van - \ 2009
Environment and Planning B - Planning and Design 36 (2009)1. - ISSN 0265-8135 - p. 49 - 66.
land-use - multiscale narratives - ia perspective - support-system - future - involvement - europe - tool
Desertification in Spain is a largely society-driven process, which can be managed effectively only through an understanding of environmental, sociocultural, and economic driving forces. This calls for a more active role of decision makers and other stakeholders. We present two promising approaches¿participatory stakeholder workshops and a spatial policy support system (PoSS)¿to develop future scenarios of land-use change for a watershed in Spain. We furthermore discuss the efforts involved and the added values of combining both methods. Based on two local workshops, three scenarios were constructed, which were subsequently formalised, parameterised, and quantified. We conclude that there are large advantages of linking narrative storylines and a spatial PoSS. Storylines ensure an active participation of a large range of stakeholders, additionally offering the possibility to develop highly integrated scenarios. The PoSS provides a spatially detailed and quantitative output, that can also be used to check the internal consistency of the qualitative scenarios. Linking stories and models can thus open the way for more successful management strategies to combat land degradation.
Integrated Assessment of the land system: The future of land use, Editorial
Kok, K. ; Verburg, P.H. ; Veldkamp, A. - \ 2007
Land Use Policy 24 (2007)3. - ISSN 0264-8377 - p. 517 - 520.
multiscale narratives - scenario development - ia perspective - management - europe
Participatory scenario construction in land use analysis: an insight into the experiences created by stakeholder involvement in the Northern Mediterranean
Patel, M. ; Kok, K. ; Rothman, D.S. - \ 2007
Land Use Policy 24 (2007)3. - ISSN 0264-8377 - p. 546 - 561.
multiscale narratives - ia perspective
Desertification can be effectively managed only through a thorough understanding of its principal ecological, socio-cultural, and economic driving forces. This has stimulated research that pays specific attention to the social causes and consequences of land use change and land degradation. Improving the management of complex environmental problems through land use planning has resulted in policy makers becoming increasingly aware of the need to place emphasis upon problem analysis. This has involved placing greater institutional value upon widening the decision-making community to include actors not normally considered as `experts¿ but who possess equally valid and valuable knowledge and perspectives of the realities of the problems affecting their region. Active involvement of the wider stakeholder community can play a crucial function in better consideration of problems by identifying different stakeholder perspectives, provide an active learning arena for all those involved, and provide an interactive basis necessary for generating joined-up thinking. Scenario construction is one such approach that can be used to actively engage stakeholders. This paper will describe the theory surrounding interactive stakeholder involvement, reflecting upon a two-part workshop process for undertaking a participatory scenario construction process in the Northern Mediterranean region. The case study will be used to illustrate the opportunities such interactive approaches can provide for communities having to deal with complex issues surrounding their region. The focus is upon creating greater awareness of the value and need for more fundamental institutional recognition in support of greater actor involvement and interactive dialogue in problem definition, planning and decision-making.