Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe–their causes and consequences for decision making
Kundzewicz, Z.W. ; Krysanova, V. ; Dankers, R. ; Hirabayashi, Y. ; Kanae, S. ; Hattermann, F.F. ; Huang, S. ; Milly, P.C.D. ; Stoffel, M. ; Driessen, P.P.J. ; Matczak, P. ; Quevauviller, P. ; Schellnhuber, H.J. - \ 2017
Hydrological Sciences Journal 62 (2017)1. - ISSN 0262-6667 - p. 1 - 14.
climate change - decision making - Europe - flood hazard - projections - science–policy interactions
This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe. EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned
Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models
Kassie, B.T. ; Asseng, S. ; Rotter, R.P. ; Hengsdijk, H. ; Ruane, A.C. ; Ittersum, M.K. van - \ 2015
Climatic Change 129 (2015)1-2. - ISSN 0165-0009 - p. 145 - 158.
africa - yield - agriculture - risks - opportunities - vulnerability - temperatures - uncertainty - variability - projections
Exploring adaptation strategies for different climate change scenarios to support agricultural production and food security is a major concern to vulnerable regions, including Ethiopia. This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and explores specific adaptation options under climate change scenarios for the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia by mid-century. Impacts and adaptation options were evaluated using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and two crop models. Results indicate that maize yield decreases on average by 20 % in 2050s relative to the baseline (1980–2009) due to climate change. A negative impact on yield is very likely, while the extent of impact is more uncertain. The share in uncertainties of impact projections was higher for the three GCMs than it was for the two RCPs and two crop models used in this study. Increasing nitrogen fertilization and use of irrigation were assessed as potentially effective adaptation options, which would offset negative impacts. However, the response of yields to increased fertilizer and irrigation will be less for climate change scenarios than under the baseline. Changes in planting dates also reduced negative impacts, while changing the maturity type of maize cultivars was not effective in most scenarios. The multi-model based analysis allowed estimating climate change impact and adaptation uncertainties, which can provide valuable insights and guidance for adaptation planning.
Communicating climate (change) uncertainties: simulation games as boundary objects
Pelt, S.C. van; Haasnoot, M. ; Arts, B.J.M. ; Ludwig, F. ; Swart, R.J. ; Biesbroek, G.R. - \ 2015
Environmental Science & Policy 45 (2015). - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 41 - 52.
science-policy interface - decision-support - projections - adaptation - politics - information - transition - management - working - systems
Climate science is characterized by large uncertainties about the direction, extent and time frame of climate change. Communicating these uncertainties is important for decision making on robust adaptation strategies, but proves to be a challenge for scientists particularly because of the complexity of uncertainties that are part of natural variability and of human induced climate change. The aim of this paper is to assess the role of a simulation game, as intermediate, to the communication of climate change uncertainties to water managers. In three workshops with water managers, the simulation game ‘Sustainable Delta’ was played to test the influence of the game on their understanding of climate change uncertainty using ex ante and ex post surveys. In each workshop an experimental- and control group were given different assignments to measure the influence of the game. The results show that although the differences between groups were not statistically significant, a change in their understanding of uncertainties was observed. The paper concludes that the learning effect of the game is inconclusive, but that the game does fosters a broader understanding of the concept climate change uncertainty. In doing so, simulation games are a promising approach to support the communication of climate change uncertainties meaningfully and support the process of adaptation to an uncertain future.
Climate-smart tank irrigation: A multi-year analysis of improved conjunctive water use under high rainfall variability
Siderius, C. ; Boonstra, H. ; Munaswamy, V. ; Ramana, C. ; Kabat, P. ; Ierland, E.C. van; Hellegers, P.J.G.J. - \ 2015
Agricultural Water Management 148 (2015). - ISSN 0378-3774 - p. 52 - 62.
surface-water - tamil-nadu - india - groundwater - management - projections - efficiency
Although water harvesting is receiving renewed attention as a strategy to cope with increasing seasonal and inter-annual rainfall variability, many centuries-old local water-harvesting reservoirs (tanks) in India are rapidly deteriorating. Easy access to groundwater is seen as one of the major threats to their maintenance and functioning. Potentially, however, conjunctive use of water from rain, tanks and groundwater reserves, supported by proper monitoring, could improve the resilience and productivity of traditional tank irrigation systems. To date, few quantitative multi-annual analyses of such climate-smart systems have been published. To redress this, we assess the sustainability of a rehabilitated tank irrigation system, by monitoring all inputs and outputs over a period of six years (12 cropping seasons). Our results show that during the period considered, improved conjunctive use resulted in a more stable cropping intensity, increased economic water productivity and higher net agricultural income. Groundwater tables were not negatively affected. We argue that improved conjunctive use can considerably reduce the vulnerability of tank irrigation to rainfall variability and thus is a valuable strategy in light of future climate change.
Identification of changes in hydrological drought characteristics from a multi-GCM driven ensemble constrained by observed discharge
Huijgevoort, M.H.J. van; Lanen, H.A.J. van; Teuling, A.J. ; Uijlenhoet, R. - \ 2014
Journal of Hydrology 512 (2014). - ISSN 0022-1694 - p. 421 - 434.
environment simulator jules - climate-change - global-scale - ocean circulation - model description - water-resources - river runoff - impact - sensitivity - projections
Drought severity and related socio-economic impacts are expected to increase due to climate change. To better adapt to these impacts, more knowledge on changes in future hydrological drought characteristics (e.g. frequency, duration) is needed rather than only knowledge on changes in meteorological or soil moisture drought characteristics. In this study, effects of climate change on droughts in several river basins across the globe were investigated. Downscaled and bias-corrected data from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the A2 emission scenario were used as forcing for large-scale models. Results from five large-scale hydrological models (GHMs) run within the EU-WATCH project were used to identify low flows and hydrological drought characteristics in the control period (1971–2000) and the future period (2071–2100). Low flows were defined by the monthly 20th percentile from discharge (Q20). The variable threshold level method was applied to determine hydrological drought characteristics. The climatology of normalized Q20 from model results for the control period was compared with the climatology of normalized Q20 from observed discharge of the Global Runoff Data Centre. An observation-constrained selection of model combinations (GHM and GCM) was made based on this comparison. Prior to the assessment of future change, the selected model combinations were evaluated against observations in the period 2001–2010 for a number of river basins. The majority of the combinations (82%) that performed sufficiently in the control period, also performed sufficiently in the period 2001–2010. With the selected model combinations, future changes in drought for each river basin were identified. In cold climates, model combinations projected a regime shift and increase in low flows between the control period and future period. Arid climates were found to become even drier in the future by all model combinations. Agreement between the combinations on future low flows was low in humid climates. Changes in hydrological drought characteristics relative to the control period did not correspond to changes in low flows in all river basins. In most basins (around 65%), drought duration and deficit were projected to increase by the majority of the selected model combinations, while a decrease in low flows was projected in less basins (around 51%). Even if low discharge (monthly Q20) was not projected to decrease for each month, droughts became more severe, for example in some basins in cold climates. This is partly caused by the use of the threshold of the control period to determine drought events in the future, which led to unintended droughts in terms of expected impacts. It is important to consider both low discharge and hydrological drought characteristics to anticipate on changes in droughts for implementation of correct adaptation measures to safeguard future water resources.
Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research.
Ruijven, B.J. ; Levy, M. ; Agrawal, A. ; Biermann, F. ; Birkmann, J. ; Carter, T.R. ; Ebi, K.L. ; Garschagen, M. ; Jones, B. ; Jones, R. ; Kemp-Benedict, E. ; Kok, M. ; Kok, K. ; Lemos, M.C. ; Lucas, P.L. ; Orlove, B. ; Pachauri, S. ; Parris, T. ; Patwardhan, A. ; Petersen, A. ; Preston, B.L. ; Ribot, J. ; Rothman, D.S. ; Schweizer, V.J. - \ 2014
Climatic Change 122 (2014)3. - ISSN 0165-0009 - p. 481 - 494.
global environmental-change - emissions scenarios - spatially explicit - sres climate - land-use - assessments - 21st-century - projections - storylines - indicators
This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.
Exploring the efficiency of bias corrections of regional climate model output for the assessment of future crop yields in Europe
Bakker, A.M.R. ; Bessembinder, J.J.E. ; Wit, A.J.W. de; Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den; Hoek, S.B. - \ 2014
Regional Environmental Change 14 (2014)3. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 865 - 877.
weather generator - global radiation - change scenarios - era-interim - variability - precipitation - projections - simulation - uncertainty - circulation
Excessive summer drying and reduced growing season length are expected to reduce European crop yields in future. This may be partly compensated by adapted crop management, increased CO2 concentration and technological development. For food security, changes in regional to continental crop yield variability may be more important than changes in mean yields. The assessment of changes in regional and larger scale crop variability requires high resolution and spatially consistent future weather, matching a specific climate scenario. Such data could be derived from regional climate models (RCMs), which provide changes in weather patterns. In general, RCM output is heavily biased with respect to observations. Due to the strong nonlinear relation between meteorological input and crop yields, the application of this biased output may result in large biases in the simulated crop yield changes. The use of RCM output only makes sense after sufficient bias correction. This study explores how RCM output can be bias corrected for the assessment of changes in European and subregional scale crop yield variability due to climate change. For this, output of the RCM RACMO of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute was bias corrected and applied within the crop simulation model WOrld FOod STudies to simulate potential and water limited yields of three divergent crops: winter wheat, maize and sugar beets. The bias correction appeared necessary to successfully reproduce the mean yields as simulated with observational data. It also substantially improved the year-to-year variability of seasonal precipitation and radiation within RACMO, but some bias in the interannual variability remained. This is caused by the fact that the applied correction focuses on mean and daily variability. The interannual variability of growing season length, and as a consequence the potential yields too, appeared even deteriorated. Projected decrease in mean crop yields is well in line with earlier studies. No significant change in crop yield variability was found. Yet, only one RCM is analysed in this study, and it is recommended to extend this study with more climate models and a slightly adjusted bias correction taking into account the variability of larger time scales as well
Climate variability and change in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: challenges for rainfed crop production
Kassie, B.T. ; Roetter, R.P. ; Hengsdijk, H. ; Asseng, S. ; Ittersum, M.K. van; Kahiluoto, J. ; Keulen, H. van - \ 2014
The Journal of Agricultural Science 152 (2014)1. - ISSN 0021-8596 - p. 58 - 74.
dry spell - africa - risk - agriculture - projections - systems - trends - model
Ethiopia is one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change on agriculture. The present study aims to understand and characterize agro-climatic variability and changes and associated risks with respect to implications for rainfed crop production in the Central Rift Valley (CRV). Temporal variability and extreme values of selected rainfall and temperature indices were analysed and trends were evaluated using Sen's slope estimator and Mann–Kendall trend test methods. Projected future changes in rainfall and temperature for the 2080s relative to the 1971–90 baseline period were determined based on four General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two emission scenarios (SRES, A2 and B1). The analysis for current climate showed that in the short rainy season (March–May), total mean rainfall varies spatially from 178 to 358 mm with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 32–50%. In the main (long) rainy season (June–September), total mean rainfall ranges between 420 and 680 mm with a CV of 15–40%. During the period 1977–2007, total rainfall decreased but not significantly. Also, there was a decrease in the number of rainy days associated with an increase (statistically not significant) in the intensity per rainfall event for the main rainy season, which can have implications for soil and nutrient losses through erosion and run-off. The reduced number of rainy days increased the length of intermediate dry spells by 0·8 days per decade, leading to crop moisture stress during the growing season. There was also a large inter-annual variability in the length of growing season, ranging from 76 to 239 days. The mean annual temperature exhibited a significant warming trend of 0·12–0·54 °C per decade. Projections from GCMs suggest that future annual rainfall will change by +10 to -40% by 2080. Rainfall will increase during November–December (outside the growing season), but will decline during the growing seasons. Also, the length of the growing season is expected to be reduced by 12–35%. The annual mean temperature is expected to increase in the range of 1·4–4·1 °C by 2080. The past and future climate trends, especially in terms of rainfall and its variability, pose major risks to rainfed agriculture. Specific adaptation strategies are needed for the CRV to cope with the risks, sustain farming and improve food security.
Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using a scenario approach and sensitivity analysis: A study for land use in Europe
Verburg, P.H. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Hatna, E. - \ 2013
Journal of Environmental Management 127 (2013)suppl.. - ISSN 0301-4797 - p. S132 - S144.
climate-change - global change - cover data - future - models - projections - validation - impact - eu
Land change model outcomes are vulnerable to multiple types of uncertainty, including uncertainty in input data, structural uncertainties in the model and uncertainties in model parameters. In coupled model systems the uncertainties propagate between the models. This paper assesses uncertainty of changes in future spatial allocation of agricultural land in Europe as they arise from a general equilibrium model coupled to a spatial land use allocation model. Two contrasting scenarios are used to capture some of the uncertainty in the development of typical combinations of economic, demographic and policy variables. The scenario storylines include different measurable assumptions concerning scenario specific drivers (variables) and parameters. Many of these assumptions are estimations and thus include a certain level of uncertainty regarding their true values. This leads to uncertainty within the scenario outcomes. In this study we have explored how uncertainty in national-level assumptions within the contrasting scenario assumptions translates into uncertainty in the location of changes in agricultural land use in Europe. The results indicate that uncertainty in coarse-scale assumptions does not translate into a homogeneous spread of the uncertainty within Europe. Some regions are more certain than others in facing specific land change trajectories irrespective of the uncertainty in the macro-level assumptions. The spatial spread of certain and more uncertain locations of land change is dependent on location conditions as well as on the overall scenario conditions. Translating macro-level uncertainties to uncertainties in spatial patterns of land change makes it possible to better understand and visualize the land change consequences of uncertainties in model input variables.
Summer temperatures in Europe and land heat fluxes in observation-based data and regional climate simulations
Stegehuis, A.I. ; Vautard, R. ; Ciais, Ph. ; Teuling, A.J. ; Jung, P. - \ 2013
Climate Dynamics 41 (2013)2. - ISSN 0930-7575 - p. 455 - 477.
weather regimes - soil-moisture - variability - ensemble - precipitation - performance - heatwaves - surface - projections - reanalysis
The occurrence and intensity of heatwaves is expected to increase with climate change. Early warnings of hot summers have therefore a great socio-economical value. Previous studies have shown that hot summers are preceded by a Southern European rainfall deficit during winter, and higher spring temperatures. Changes in the surface energy budget are believed to drive this evolution, in particular changes in the latent and sensible heat fluxes. However these have rarely been investigated due to the lack of long-term reliable observation data. In this study, we analyzed several data-derived gridded products of latent and sensible heat fluxes, based on flux tower observations, together with re-analyses and regional climate model simulations over Europe. We find that warm summers are preceded by an increase in latent heat flux in early spring. During warm summers, an increase in available energy results in an excess of both latent and sensible heat fluxes over most of Europe, but a latent heat flux decrease over the Iberian Peninsula. This indicates that, on average, a summertime soil-moisture limited evapotranspiration regime only prevails in the Iberian Peninsula. In general, the models that we analyzed overestimate latent heat and underestimate sensible heat as compared to the flux tower derived data-product. Most models show considerable drying during warm seasons, leading to the establishment of a soil-moisture limited regime across Europe in summer. This over-estimation by the current generation of models of latent heat and hence of soil moisture deficit over Europe in summer has potential consequences for future summertime climate projections and the projected frequency of heat waves. We also show that a northward propagation of drought during warm summers is found in model results, a phenomenon which is also seen in the flux tower data-product. Our results lead to a better understanding of the role of latent and sensible heat flux in summer heatwaves, and provide a framework for benchmark of modeling studies.
Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change : Letter
Asseng, S. ; Ewert, F. ; Rosenzweig, C. ; Jones, J.W. ; Supit, I. - \ 2013
Nature Climate Change 3 (2013)9. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 827 - 832.
tarwe - gewasproductie - klimaatverandering - gewasgroeimodellen - wheat - crop production - climatic change - crop growth models - models - food - co2 - temperature - projections - adaptation - scenarios - ensemble - impacts
Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.
Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations
Pelt, S.C. van; Beersma, J.J. ; Buishand, T.A. ; Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den; Kabat, P. - \ 2012
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16 (2012)12. - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 4517 - 4530.
klimaatverandering - hydrologie van stroomgebieden - afvoer - neerslag - rijn - modellen - climatic change - catchment hydrology - discharge - precipitation - river rhine - models - generalized pareto distribution - multisite simulation - change impacts - river thames - tall tales - temperature - projections - uncertainties - ensemble - europe
Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better description of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias-corrected RCM simulations of the 1961–2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES) were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961–1995) precipitation time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also results in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods.
Robust assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin using a GCM
Kew, S.F. ; Selten, F.M. ; Lenderink, G. ; Hazeleger, W. - \ 2011
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15 (2011). - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 1157 - 1166.
klimaatverandering - neerslag - regen - meteorologische factoren - simulatiemodellen - toekomst - watersystemen - waterstand - rivieren - hydrologie van stroomgebieden - rijn - climatic change - precipitation - rain - meteorological factors - simulation models - future - water systems - water level - rivers - catchment hydrology - river rhine - regional climate model - storm track - simulations - europe - shift - temperature - netherlands - projections - scenarios
Estimates of future changes in extremes of multiday precipitation sums are critical for estimates of future discharge extremes of large river basins. Here we use a large ensemble of global climate model SRES A1b scenario simulations to estimate changes in extremes of 1–20 day precipitation sums over the Rhine basin, projected for the period 2071–2100 with reference to 1961–1990. We find that in winter, an increase of order 10%, for the 99th percentile precipitation sum, is approximately fixed across the selected range of multiday sums, whereas in summer, the changes become increasingly negative as the summation time lengthens. Explanations for these results are presented that have implications for simple scaling methods for creating time series of a future climate. We show that the dependence of quantile changes on summation time is sensitive to the ensemble size and indicate that currently available discharge estimates from previous studies are based on insufficiently long time series.
Climate Change Risk Management in Transnational River Basins: The Rhine
Pelt, S.C. van; Swart, R.J. - \ 2011
Water Resources Management 25 (2011)14. - ISSN 0920-4741 - p. 3837 - 3861.
klimaatverandering - hydrologie van stroomgebieden - afvoer - risicobeheersing - rijn - climatic change - catchment hydrology - discharge - risk management - river rhine - impact - model - adaptation - temperature - flood - uncertainties - precipitation - netherlands - cooperation - projections
Climate change is likely to have an impact on the discharge of the European river Rhine. To base adaptation strategies, to deal with these changing river discharges, on the best scientific and technical knowledge, it is important to understand potential climate impacts, as well as the capacity of social and natural systems to adapt. Both are characterized by large uncertainties, at different scales, that range from individual to local to regional to international. This review paper addresses three challenges. Dealing with climate change uncertainties for the development of adaptation strategies is the first challenge. We find that communication of uncertainties in support of river basin adaptation planning generally only covers a small part of the spectrum of prevailing uncertainties, e.g. by using only one model or scenario and one approach to deal with the uncertainties. The second challenge identified in this paper is to overcome the current mismatch of supply of scientific knowledge by scientists and the demand by policy makers. Early experiences with ‘assess-risk-of-policy’ approaches analysis of options, starting from the resilience of development plans, suggests that this approach better responds to policy makers’ needs. The third challenge is to adequately capture the transnational character of the Rhine river basin in research and policy. Development and implementation of adaptation options derived from integrated analysis at the full river basin level, rather than within the boundaries of the riparian countries, can offer new opportunities, but will also meet many practical challenges.
Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years
Patt, A.G. ; Tadross, M. ; Nussbaumer, P. ; Asante, K. ; Metzger, M.J. ; Rafael, J. ; Goujon, A. ; Brundrit, G. - \ 2010
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107 (2010)4. - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. 1333 - 1337.
natural disasters - adaptive capacity - adaptation - projections - impacts
When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation.
Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index
Perch-Nielsen, S. ; Amelung, B. ; Knutti, R. - \ 2010
Climatic Change 103 (2010)3-4. - ISSN 0165-0009 - p. 363 - 381.
regional climate - model - precipitation - simulation - temperature - seasonality - performance - projections - recreation - reanalysis
Climate is an important resource for many types of tourism. One of several metrics for the suitability of climate for sightseeing is Mieczkowski’s “Tourism Climatic Index” (TCI), which summarizes and combines seven climate variables. By means of the TCI, we analyse the present climate resources for tourism in Europe and projected changes under future climate change. We use daily data from five regional climate models and compare the reference period 1961–1990 to the A2 scenario in 2071–2100. A comparison of the TCI based on reanalysis data and model simulations for the reference period shows that current regional climate models capture the important climatic patterns. Currently, climate resources are best in Southern Europe and deteriorate with increasing latitude and altitude. With climate change the latitudinal band of favourable climate is projected to shift northward improving climate resources in Northern and Central Europe in most seasons. Southern Europe’s suitability for sightseeing tourism drops strikingly in the summer holiday months but is partially compensated by considerable improvements between October and April
The effect of different mitigation strategies on international financing of adaptation
Hof, A.F. ; Bruin, K.C. de; Dellink, R.B. ; Elzen, M.G.J. den; Vuuren, D.P. van - \ 2009
Environmental Science & Policy 12 (2009)7. - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 832 - 843.
climate-change - greenhouse gases - damage costs - trade-offs - model - policy - projections - economics - targets - regimes
Recent proposals at the UNFCCC meeting in Bali in December 2007 suggest that a 2% levy on the CDM could finance adaptation costs in developing regions. Other proposals include extending the scope of the levy to emissions trading. This study applies an Integrated Assessment Model to gain insight in the interactions between adaptation costs, residual damages and mitigation costs and to analyse the effectiveness of a 2% levy on both the CDM and emissions trading from developing countries. We show that adaptation is especially important in lower income regions where damages are higher. The revenues of a 2% levy strongly depend on both the climate mitigation target and the burden-sharing regime. A more stringent climate mitigation target results in more emissions trade and, in the longer run, less need for adaptation. Both factors increase the share of adaptation costs that can be funded. The burden-sharing regime strongly affects the revenues of a 2% levy as well: relatively more stringent targets for developed countries increase the revenues of a 2% levy. However, in the next two decades the share of adaptation that can be financed remains well below 20% in most cases. Additional funding mechanisms are therefore necessary to substantially finance adaptation costs in developing countries.
Sphere size distributions from finite thickness sections: a forward approach employing a genetic algorithm
Nooijer, S. de; Ketelaar, M.J. ; Mulder, B. - \ 2008
Journal of Microscopy 231 (2008)2. - ISSN 0022-2720 - p. 257 - 264.
particle-size - pathological research - numerical evaluation - electron-microscopy - projections - diagnosis - objects
We formulate, implement and test a robust method of determining sphere size distributions from finite thickness planar sections. The method uses a forward approach in which populations of proposed distributions are tested against the input data and refined using a genetic algorithm. This method is then applied to a real-world data set concerning endo- and exocytotic vesicles in the apical region of tip growing pollen tubes of Arabidopsis thaliana.
Global drought in the 20th and 21st centuries : analysis of retrospective simulations and future projections of soil moisture
Sheffield, J. - \ 2008
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): P.A. Troch, co-promotor(en): E.F. Wood. - [S.l.] : S.n. - ISBN 9789085048060 - 206
droogte - bodemwater - computersimulatie - simulatiemodellen - historische verslagen - projecties - toekomst - drought - soil water - computer simulation - simulation models - historical records - projections - future
We describe the analysis of global and regional drought over the second half of the 20th century from a retrospective model simulation of the terrestrial water cycle, and projected 21st century changes using multi-scenario data from multiple climate models. A global meteorological forcing dataset is developed for 1948-2000 to drive the retrospective simulation by combining observations with reanalysis. Biases in the reanalysis precipitation, temperature and radiation are corrected for systematic bias and spurious trends, which exert erroneous effects on the land water budgets. A monthly soil moisture based drought index is developed from the simulation and is used to investigate the occurrence, variability and trends in drought for 1950-2000. The frequencies of short-term droughts (6 months and less) are highest in humid regions. Medium term droughts (6-12 months) are more prevalent in mid- to high-latitudes, driven by persistent frozen soil moisture anomalies. Over the Sahel and parts of high northern latitudes, the frequency of long-term droughts is at a maximum. Severe drought events are systematically identified in terms of spatial coverage, including the 1988 USA, 1982/83 Australian, 1983/4 Sahel and 1965/66 Indian droughts. There is an overall increasing trend in global soil moisture, driven by precipitation, reflected especially in North America. Regional variation is nevertheless apparent and significant drying over West Africa, stands out. Trends in drought characteristics are mostly decreasing but statistically significant changes are limited in areal extent and generally less than 10% of continental areas. Concurrent decreases in global drought spatial extent are 0.04% yr−1. Within the long-term trends we find interannual and decadal variations in soil moisture and drought characteristics driven mainly by ENSO variability, although the AMO plays an important role in many regions. Drought is driven primarily by variability in precipitation, but temperature has an effect that appears to be exaggerated in the late 20th century, especially in high northern latitudes. At global scales the soil moisture index and the PDSI are reasonably well correlated but this breaks down in cooler regions and seasons, and notably for recent years when the PDSI shows a larger drying trend, possibly due to its temperature-based evaporation estimate. To investigate future projected changes in drought, soil moisture data is analyzed for three future IPCC AR4 climate scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) from eight GCMs. A decrease in 21st century global soil moisture is accompanied by a doubling of the spatial extent and frequency of short-term droughts. Long-term droughts become three v times more common. Regionally, the Mediterranean, West African, Central Asian and Central American regions show large increases, as does mid-latitude North America but with larger inter-scenario variation. Changes under the B1 scenario are the least and the A1B and A2 results are similar. Although the changes are generally monotonic increasing, they are not statistically different from natural variability for multiple decades, in contrast to air temperature, and this depends on the drought variable, magnitude of change, natural variability and statistical confidence. In contrast, changes in the means of hydrologic variables, including soil moisture, are essentially undetectable within the 21st century, implying that changes in extremes may be more detectable than changes in mean quantities.
Cattle trade and the risk of importing animal diseases into the Netherlands
Achterbosch, T.J. ; Dopfer, D.D.V. - \ 2005
Den Haag : LEI (Report / LEI : Domain 8, Models and data ) - ISBN 9789086150427 - 87
agrarische bedrijfsvoering - landbouwbeleid - dierziekten - rundveeziekten - rundvee - epidemiologie - mond- en klauwzeer - bovine spongiforme encefalopatie - leptospirose - landbouwbedrijven - aantallen vee - diergezondheid - projecties - risico - handel - import - kleine landbouwbedrijven - nederland - farm management - agricultural policy - animal diseases - cattle diseases - cattle - epidemiology - foot and mouth disease - bovine spongiform encephalopathy - leptospirosis - farms - livestock numbers - animal health - projections - risk - trade - imports - small farms - netherlands
This study examines the risk of importing animal diseases into the Netherlands through livestock trade. It presents projections of Dutch cattle imports until 2010, and applies quantitative epidemiology to estimate the related probabilities of importing three animal diseases (foot and mouth disease, bovine tuberculosis, and leptospirosis). A key result is that trade flows involving large numbers of cattle from a large number of small-scale farms poses alarming risks to veterinary health in the Netherlands.