Potential impacts of agricultural development on freshwater biodiversity in the Lake Victoria basin
Soesbergen, Arnout van; Sassen, Marieke ; Kimsey, Samuel ; Hill, Samantha - \ 2019
Aquatic conservation: marine and freshwater ecosystems 29 (2019)7. - ISSN 1052-7613 - p. 1052 - 1062.
agricultural development - freshwater biodiversity - Lake Victoria - land-use change - modelling - rivers - scenarios
The Lake Victoria basin (LVB) and its tributary rivers are a major biodiversity hot spot, containing at least 234 native fish species, 135 native aquatic plant species, and 50 native freshwater mollusc species. Lake Victoria itself is home to around 500 fish species, most of which are haplochromine cichlids. The LVB is increasingly under threat from unsustainable land conversion and the intensification of agriculture. High population growth is driving the expansion of agriculture, urbanization, and freshwater abstractions, which have a profound impact on freshwater biodiversity. In addition, increased demand for agricultural crops from domestic and international markets are likely to lead to larger agricultural operations, further threatening freshwater biodiversity. This study explores these potential future impacts on the biodiversity found in freshwater rivers in the LVB as a result of projected future changes in land use. A newly developed database of land-use impacts on freshwater biodiversity is introduced, with a focus on ecological community composition data from freshwater habitats under human pressures. Impacts on freshwater biodiversity are then projected under four different scenarios of land-use change. Results show that land use has a significant impact on freshwater biodiversity. Freshwater biodiversity is projected to be at most risk in sub-basins in the Tanzanian, Rwandan, and Burundian part of the LVB, such as the Kagera and Magoga/Isonga sub-basins. Local species richness levels are particularly affected in the Magoga/Isonga sub-basin in Tanzania, with an average loss of 10.8% across all scenarios. Model results show the potential to identify broad spatial patterns of likely threats and pressures on freshwater ecosystems under different socio-economic futures. The analysis of these patterns, where they are consistent and where they differ, can support the production of policy that strives to find the optimal balance between development and conservation in an uncertain future.
FOODSECURE Scenario Driver Database
Dijk, Michiel van; Gramberger, M. ; Laborde, D. ; Mandryk, Maryia ; Shutes, Lindsay ; Stehfest, Elke ; Valin, H. ; Zellmer, K. - \ 2019
Wageningen University & Research
food security - scenarios - drivers - population - yield - gdp - gross domestic product - storylines
The FOODSECURE Scenario Driver Database contains projections for key drivers that, in combination with storylines, describe four scenarios for the assessment of global food security. The database provides information for 19 regions that together have global coverage for the period 2010-2050.
From environmental nuisance to environmental opportunity: housefly larvae convert waste to livestock feed
Zanten, H.H.E. van; Mollenhorst, H. ; Oonincx, D.G.A.B. ; Bikker, P. ; Meerburg, B.G. ; Boer, I.J.M. de - \ 2015
Journal of Cleaner Production 102 (2015). - ISSN 0959-6526 - p. 362 - 369.
life-cycle perspective - bio-energy - food - consequences - variability - digestion - scenarios - amazon - manure - land
The livestock sector is in urgent need for more sustainable feed sources, because of the increased demand for animal-source food and the already high environmental costs associated with it. Recent developments indicate environmental benefits of rearing insects for livestock feed, suggesting that insect-based feed might become an important alternative feed source in the coming years. So far, however, this potential environmental benefit of waste-fed insects is unknown. This study, therefore, explores the environmental impact of using larvae of the common housefly grown on poultry manure and food waste as livestock feed. Data were provided by a laboratory plant in the Netherlands aiming to design an industrial plant for rearing housefly larvae. Production of 1 ton dry matter of larvae meal directly resulted in a global warming potential of 770 kg CO2 equivalents, an energy use of 9329 MJ and a land use of 32 m2, caused by use of water, electricity, and feed for flies, eggs and larvae. Production of larvae meal, however, also has indirect environmental consequences. Food waste, for example, was originally used for production of bio-energy. Accounting for these indirect consequences implies, e.g., including the environmental impact of production of energy needed to replace the original bio-energy function of food waste. Assuming, furthermore, that 1 ton of larvae meal replaced 0.5 ton of fishmeal and 0.5 ton of soybean meal, the production of 1 ton larvae meal reduced land use (1713 m2), but increased energy use (21,342 MJ) and consequently global warming potential (1959 kg CO2-eq). Results of this study will enhance a transparent societal and political debate about future options and limitations of larvae meal as livestock feed. Results of the indirect environmental impact, however, are situation specific, e.g. in this study food waste was used for anaerobic digestion. In case food waste would have been used for, e.g., composting, the energy use and related emission of greenhouse gases might decrease. Furthermore, the industrial process to acquire housefly larvae meal is still advancing, which also offers potential to reduce energy use and related emissions. Eventually, land scarcity will increase further, whereas opportunities exist to reduce energy use by, e.g., technical innovations or an increased use of solar or wind energy. Larvae meal production, therefore, has potential to reduce the environmental impact of the livestock sector.
Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands
Reidsma, P. ; Wolf, J. ; Kanellopoulos, A. ; Schaap, B.F. ; Mandryk, M. ; Verhagen, J. ; Ittersum, M.K. van - \ 2015
Environmental Research Letters 10 (2015)4. - ISSN 1748-9326
european-union - crop yields - agriculture - responses - models - wheat - variability - improvement - strategies - scenarios
Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semiquantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world.
Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe: a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors
Kebede, A.S. ; Dunford, R. ; Mokrech, M. ; Rickebusch, S. - \ 2015
Climatic Change 128 (2015)3-4. - ISSN 0165-0009 - p. 261 - 277.
integrated assessment - adaptation - vulnerability - reduction - scenarios - scale - uk
Integrated cross-sectoral impact assessments facilitate a comprehensive understanding of interdependencies and potential synergies, conflicts, and trade-offs between sectors under changing conditions. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a European integrated assessment model, the CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform (IAP). The IAP incorporates important cross-sectoral linkages between six key European land- and water-based sectors: agriculture, biodiversity, flooding, forests, urban, and water. Using the IAP, we investigate the direct and indirect implications of a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic drivers to identify: (1) those sectors and regions most sensitive to future changes, (2) the mechanisms and directions of sensitivity (direct/indirect and positive/negative), (3) the form and magnitudes of sensitivity (linear/non-linear and strong/weak/insignificant), and (4) the relative importance of the key drivers across sectors and regions. The results are complex. Most sectors are either directly or indirectly sensitive to a large number of drivers (more than 18 out of 24 drivers considered). Over twelve of these drivers have indirect impacts on biodiversity, forests, land use diversity, and water, while only four drivers have indirect effects on flooding. In contrast, for the urban sector all the drivers are direct. Moreover, most of the driver–indicator relationships are non-linear, and hence there is the potential for ‘surprises’. This highlights the importance of considering cross-sectoral interactions in future impact assessments. Such systematic analysis provides improved information for decision-makers to formulate appropriate adaptation policies to maximise benefits and minimise unintended consequences.
Impacts of agricultural changes in response to climate and socio economic change on nitrogen deposition in nature reserves
Kros, J. ; Bakker, M.M. ; Reidsma, P. ; Kanellopoulos, A. ; Alam, S.J. ; Vries, W. de - \ 2015
Landscape Ecology 30 (2015)5. - ISSN 0921-2973 - p. 871 - 885.
netherlands - diversity - scenarios
Context - This paper describes the environmental consequences of agricultural adaptation on eutrophication of the nearby ecological network for a study area in the Netherlands. More specifically, we explored (i) likely responses of farmers to changes in climate, technology, policy, and markets; (ii) subsequent changes in nitrogen (N) emissions in responses to farmer adaptations; and (iii) to what extent the emitted N was deposited in nearby nature reserves, in view of the potential impacts on plant species diversity and desired nature targets. Methods - For this purpose, a spatially-explicit study at landscape level was performed by integrating the environmental model INITIATOR, the farm model FSSIM, and the land-use model RULEX. We evaluated two alternative scenarios of change in climate, technology, policy, and markets for 2050: one in line with a ‘global economy’ (GE) storyline and the other in line with a ‘regional communities’ (RC) storyline. Results - Results show that the GE storyline resulted in a relatively strong increase in agricultural production compared to the RC storyline. Despite the projected conversions of agricultural land to nature (as part of the implementation of the National Ecological Network), we project an increase in N losses and N deposition due to N emissions in the study area of about 20 %. Even in the RC storyline, with a relatively modest increase in agricultural production and a larger expansion of the nature reserve, the N losses and deposition remain at the current level, whereas a reduction is required. Conclusions - We conclude that more ambitious green policies are needed in view of nature protection.
Managing the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity
Navarro-Ortega, A. ; Acuña, V. ; Bellin, A. ; Burek, P. ; Cassiani, G. ; Choukr-Allah, R. ; Dolédec, S. ; Elosegi, A. ; Ferrari, F. ; Ginebreda, A. ; Grathwohl, P. ; Jones, C. ; Ker Rault, P.A. ; Kok, K. ; Koundouri, P. ; Ludwig, R.P. ; Merz, R. ; Milacic, R. - \ 2015
Science of the Total Environment 503-504 (2015). - ISSN 0048-9697 - p. 3 - 9.
climate-change - fresh-water - mediterranean rivers - southern europe - management - scenarios - quality - systems
Water scarcity is a serious environmental problem in many European regions, and will likely increase in the near future as a consequence of increased abstraction and climate change. Water scarcity exacerbates the effects of multiple stressors, and thus results in decreased water quality. It impacts river ecosystems, threatens the services they provide, and it will force managers and policy-makers to change their current practices. The EU-FP7 project GLOBAQUA aims at identifying the prevalence, interaction and linkages between stressors, and to assess their effects on the chemical and ecological status of freshwater ecosystems in order to improve water management practice and policies. GLOBAQUA assembles a multidisciplinary team of 21 European plus 2 non-European scientific institutions, as well as water authorities and river basin managers. The project includes experts in hydrology, chemistry, biology, geomorphology, modelling, socio-economics, governance science, knowledge brokerage, and policy advocacy. GLOBAQUA studies six river basins (Ebro, Adige, Sava, Evrotas, Anglian and Souss Massa) affected by water scarcity, and aims to answer the following questions: how does water scarcity interact with other existing stressors in the study river basins? How will these interactions change according to the different scenarios of future global change? Which will be the foreseeable consequences for river ecosystems? How will these in turn affect the services the ecosystems provide? How should management and policies be adapted to minimise the ecological, economic and societal consequences? These questions will be approached by combining data-mining, field- and laboratory-based research, and modelling. Here, we outline the general structure of the project and the activities to be conducted within the fourteen work-packages of GLOBAQUA.
A framework with an integrated computer support tool to assess regional biomass delivery chains
Elbersen, B.S. ; Annevelink, E. ; Roos Klein-Lankhorst, J. ; Lesschen, J.P. ; Staritsky, I.G. ; Langeveld, J.W.A. ; Elbersen, H.W. ; Sanders, J.P.M. - \ 2014
Regional Environmental Change 14 (2014)3. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 967 - 980.
netherlands - scenarios
In this paper, we first provide a brief overview of other decision support tools for bioenergy and assess to which extent the integrated tool central in this paper is different and novel. Next, a description is given of the tool, the different models used and the functionalities. The working of the tool is then illustrated with three case studies based in the northern part of The Netherlands. The computerised tool is meant to support the communication process between stakeholders to come to the implementation of regional biomass delivery chains. It helps to create a quick and common understanding of optimal biomass use in a region. Although the tool has been applied only to bioenergy chains, other biochemical and biomaterial chains are also suitable to be incorporated. The three case studies presented include a conventional sugar beet bioethanol production chain, an advanced Miscanthus bioethanol conversion chain and a straw-based electricity chain. The main conclusions are that optimal biomass use for nonfood purposes from a sustainability and resource-efficient perspective depend on many different factors specific to the conversion chains. For example, the green house gas (GHG) emission and mitigation potential of a sugar beetbased bioethanol chain requires careful organisation particularly on the primary biomass production and transport, while in a straw-based electricity chain, the largest efficiency gains can be reached in the conversion part. Land use change (LUC) to sugar beet generally causes more negative environmental impacts than LUC to Miscanthus. This applies to both GHG efficiency, soil organic carbon content and emissions of nitrogen to surface waters. At the same time, it becomes clear that the different scenario assumptions can be very influential, particularly on the final economic performance of a chain. Overall, it is clear from the cases that the users understand much better under which circumstances and through which mechanisms the designed chains can become profitable and can become more environmentally sustainable.
Land Use Dynamics, Climate Change, and Food Security in Vietnam: A Global-to-local Modeling Approach
Rutten, M.M. ; Dijk, M. van; Rooij, W. van; Hilderink, H. - \ 2014
World Development 59 (2014). - ISSN 0305-750X - p. 29 - 46.
eu biofuel policies - impact - scenarios - future - europe
We present an innovative global-to-local modeling approach to analyze impacts of uncertain and complex futures on Vietnam’s economy via changes in land use patterns. Socio-economic changes are shown to have major implications for the Vietnamese landscape, including natural forest losses with negative consequences for biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions, and losses of paddy rice and other agricultural lands in the Red River Delta and the Mekong River delta. Climate-related flood risks in these areas further threaten the population, economic assets, and food security. The scenarios reveal the importance of investments in agriculture, land markets, and climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets
Friedlingstein, P. ; Andrew, R.M. ; Rogelj, J. ; Schaeffer, M. ; Vuuren, D.P. van - \ 2014
Nature Geoscience 7 (2014). - ISSN 1752-0894 - p. 709 - 715.
cumulative carbon emissions - dioxide - temperature - variability - mitigation - scenarios - storage - system - policy - 2-degrees-c
Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2 °C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates. We show that CO2 emissions track the high end of the latest generation of emissions scenarios, due to lower than anticipated carbon intensity improvements of emerging economies and higher global gross domestic product growth. In the absence of more stringent mitigation, these trends are set to continue and further reduce the remaining quota until the onset of a potential new climate agreement in 2020. Breaking current emission trends in the short term is key to retaining credible climate targets within a rapidly diminishing emission quota.
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for futures studies : a methodological assessment of concepts and methods
Jetter, J.J. ; Kok, K. - \ 2014
Futures 61 (2014). - ISSN 0016-3287 - p. 45 - 57.
mapping approach - mental models - knowledge - scenarios - stakeholders - integration - management - policy - tool
Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) modelling is highly suitable for the demands of future studies: it uses a mix of qualitative and quantitative approaches, it enables the inclusion of multiple and diverse sources to overcome the limitations of expert opinions, it considers multivariate interactions that lead to nonlinearities, and it aims to make implicit assumptions (or mental models) explicit. Despite these properties, the field of future studies is slow to adopt FCM and to apply the increasingly solid theoretical foundations and rigorous practices for FCM applications that are evolving in other fields. This paper therefore discusses theoretical and practical aspects of constructing and applying FCMs within the context of future studies: based on an extensive literature review and the authors’ experience with FCM projects, it provides an introduction of fundamental concepts of FCM modelling, a step-wise description and discussion of practical methods and their pitfalls, and an overview over future research directions for FCM in future studies.
Exploring the future of timber resources in the high forest zone of Ghana
Oduro, K. ; Arts, B.J.M. ; Hoogstra-Klein, M.A. ; Kyereh, B. ; Mohren, G.M.J. - \ 2014
International Forestry Review 16 (2014)6. - ISSN 1465-5489 - p. 573 - 585.
deforestation - scenarios - market
Ghana's forests, particularly the timber resources, face an uncertain future, because of high deforestation rate, a rapidly declining timber resource base, rapid population growth and increasing demand for timber. This paper explores the future development of timber resource in Ghana by constructing scenarios and considering options policy-makers could take to ensure sustainable future development of the timber resource. Data was collected by reviewing the literature and consulting experts. The scenarios follow the deductive approach, exploring the potential interactions among key driving forces as selected by experts. The two most important driving forces for the future of timber resource s selected by the experts were forest governance and resource demand. Four plausible scenarios were developed: legal forestry scenario with emphasis on improving the resource base to meet high demand; forest degradation, a business-as-usual scenario; forest transition, with emphasis on expanding the resource base in response to environmental concerns; and timber substitution scenario seeking to provide wood substitutes to conserve the resource base. The scenarios provide insights for policy making and strategic planning for forest resource management in Ghana. To ensure a sustainable future for timber resources, policy reform is needed, focusing on land and tree tenure, revenue capture, benefit-sharing schemes and satisfying the domestic demand for timber.
Simplifying modeling of nanoparticle aggregation-sedimentation behavior in environmental systems: A theoretical analysis
Quik, J.T.K. ; Meent, D. van de; Koelmans, A.A. - \ 2014
Water Research 62 (2014). - ISSN 0043-1354 - p. 193 - 201.
sedimentatie - bodemdeeltjes - waterkwaliteit - modellen - sedimentation - aggregates - water quality - models - engineered nanoparticles - carbon nanotubes - nanomaterials - exposure - heteroaggregation - coagulation - challenges - scenarios - kinetics - release
Parameters and simplified model approaches for describing the fate of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) are crucial to advance the risk assessment of these materials. Sedimentation behavior of ENPs in natural waters has been shown to follow apparent first order behavior, a ‘black box’ phenomenon that is insufficiently understood and therefore of limited applicability. Here we use a detailed Smoluchowski-Stokes model that accounts for homo- and heteroaggregation and sedimentation of ENPs and natural colloids (NCs), to simulate and interpret experimental ENP aggregation-sedimentation data. The model adequately simulated the observed time and initial concentration dependence of CeO2 settling data, and also predicted the conditions for aggregation rate-limitations of overall removal. Heteroaggregation with natural colloids was identified as the dominating removal process. Finally, the empirical apparent first order model data were calibrated against the mechanistic Smoluchowski-Stokes model simulation data, showing excellent fits for a range of NC initial concentrations. Using first order removal rates thus can be considered a valid and informed approximation when modeling ENP fate in the aquatic environment
Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison
Lotze-Campen, H. ; Lampe, M. von; Kyle, P. ; Fujimori, S. ; Havlik, P. ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Hasegawa, T. ; Popp, A. ; Schmitz, C. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Valin, H. ; Willenbockel, D. ; Wise, M. - \ 2014
Agricultural Economics 45 (2014)1. - ISSN 0169-5150 - p. 103 - 116.
greenhouse-gas emissions - land-use - energy - productivity - scenarios - policies - capture - storage - system
Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
Schellnhuber, H.J. ; Heinke, J. ; Gerten, D. ; Haddeland, I. ; Arnell, N.W. ; Clark, D.B. ; Dankers, R. ; Eisner, S. ; Kabat, P. - \ 2014
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111 (2014)9. - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. 3245 - 3250.
future food-production - model description - bias correction - river runoff - resources - availability - vulnerability - uncertainty - scenarios - trends
Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (
Future structural developments in Dutch and German livestock production and implications for contagious livestock disease control
Hop, G.E. ; Mourits, M.C.M. ; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. ; Saatkamp, H.W. - \ 2014
Technological Forecasting and Social Change 82 (2014). - ISSN 0040-1625 - p. 95 - 114.
classical swine-fever - netherlands - delphi - scenarios - prospects - epidemic - industry - systems - models - spread
The structure of livestock production is subject to driving forces that alter veterinary and economic risks of contagious livestock diseases. Insight into changes in this structure is thus important for veterinary contingency planning. The objective of this paper was to explore changes in future production structure features within the cross-border region of the Netherlands (NL), North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) and Lower Saxony (LS) projected towards 2020 using the Policy Delphi method. Additionally, the findings of this study were elaborated in terms of possible implications for contagious livestock disease introduction, spread and control. Experts expected a sharp reduction in the number of farms, a sharp increase in farm size and regional concentration of livestock production, especially in NL. Increases in cross-border trade were expected, particularly in the pig sector, resulting in intensified mutual cross-border production dependency in most sectors. The cross-border region of NL-NRW-LS becomes, therefore, increasingly a single epidemiological area in which disease introduction is a shared veterinary and, consequently, economic risk. This situation results in increased need for collaboration among NL-NRW-LS to improve the joint prevention and control of contagious livestock diseases. It is concluded that veterinary policy makers should proactively anticipate these future changes in the production structure of livestock.
Assessing the impacts of livestock production on biodiversity in rangeland ecosystems
Alkemade, R. ; Reid, R.S. ; Berg, M. van den; Leeuw, J. de; Jeuken, M. - \ 2013
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110 (2013)52. - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. 20900 - 20905.
land-use changes - south-africa - diversity - conservation - assemblages - grassland - management - scenarios - responses - savanna
Biodiversity in rangelands is decreasing, due to intense utilization for livestock production and conversion of rangeland into cropland; yet the outlook of rangeland biodiversity has not been considered in view of future global demand for food. Here we assess the impact of future livestock production on the global rangelands area and their biodiversity. First we formalized existing knowledge about livestock grazing impacts on biodiversity, expressed in mean species abundance (MSA) of the original rangeland native species assemblages, through metaanalysis of peer-reviewed literature. MSA values, ranging from 1 in natural rangelands to 0.3 in man-made grasslands, were entered in the IMAGE-GLOBIO model. This model was used to assess the impact of change in food demand and livestock production on future rangeland biodiversity. The model revealed remarkable regional variation in impact on rangeland area and MSA between two agricultural production scenarios. The area of used rangelands slightly increases globally between 2000 and 2050 in the baseline scenario and reduces under a scenario of enhanced uptake of resource-efficient production technologies increasing production [high levels of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology (high-AKST)], particularly in Africa. Both scenarios suggest a global decrease in MSA for rangelands until 2050. The contribution of livestock grazing to MSA loss is, however, expected to diminish after 2030, in particular in Africa under the high-AKST scenario. Policies fostering agricultural intensification can reduce the overall pressure on rangeland biodiversity, but additional measures, addressing factors such as climate change and infrastructural development, are necessary to totally halt biodiversity loss.
Convergence of European wheat yields
Powell, J.P. ; Rutten, M.M. - \ 2013
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 28 (2013). - ISSN 1364-0321 - p. 53 - 70.
agricultural land-use - panel-data - model - productivity - estimators - regression - scenarios - emissions - gas
The paper makes several contributions to the study of wheat yield changes in Europe and the resulting economic consequences in the near to medium term future. In particular, it addresses the issue of the effects of yield changes on land use. The transition and growth of yields are estimated using a combination of convergence, time-series and dynamic panel models. Scenarios are then run using estimated yields as input into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The CGE model provides a narrative framework through which the total economic impact of changes in yields can be analyzed. Together, the complementary approaches of econometrics and general equilibrium models allow a more complete economic analysis of the consequences of yield changes for this important biofuels crop to emerge. Although there is no evidence of a common rate of yield convergence across Europe, there is evidence of absolute convergence. Standard time series and panel forecasting methods indicate the potential for only very modest yearly yield increases across most of Europe given optimistic assumptions; although potential yearly increases in newer European states could, in some cases, be substantially higher. However, the total amount of land released as a result of potential yield increases in the wheat sector is only modest because of an increase in demand for land by sectors other than wheat. The overall question of whether significant yield increases will necessarily lead to large increases in land available to produce bio-energy crops is rejected. Land freed by wheat yield increases will go to the production of a wide range of agricultural products that value it as an input. The same reasoning which links yields and land use applies to all agricultural products when there are well functioning markets. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia
Potgieter, A. ; Meinke, H.B. ; Doherty, A. ; Sadras, V.O. ; Hammer, G. ; Crimp, S. ; Rodriguez, D. - \ 2013
Climatic Change 117 (2013)1-2. - ISSN 0165-0009 - p. 163 - 179.
water-use efficiency - climate-change - eastern australia - south-australia - northeast australia - western-australia - risk analysis - model - variability - scenarios
Climate projections over the next two to four decades indicate that most of Australia's wheat-belt is likely to become warmer and drier. Here we used a shire scale, dynamic stress-index model that accounts for the impacts of rainfall and temperature on wheat yield, and a range of climate change projections from global circulation models to spatially estimate yield changes assuming no adaptation and no CO2 fertilisation effects. We modelled five scenarios, a baseline climate (climatology, 1901-2007), and two emission scenarios ("low" and "high" CO2) for two time horizons, namely 2020 and 2050. The potential benefits from CO2 fertilisation were analysed separately using a point level functional simulation model. Irrespective of the emissions scenario, the 2020 projection showed negligible changes in the modelled yield relative to baseline climate, both using the shire or functional point scale models. For the 2050-high emissions scenario, changes in modelled yield relative to the baseline ranged from -5 % to +6 % across most of Western Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, and from -5 to -30 % in northern NSW, Queensland and the drier environments of Victoria, South Australia and in-land Western Australia. Taking into account CO2 fertilisation effects across a North-south transect through eastern Australia cancelled most of the yield reductions associated with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall by 2020, and attenuated the expected yield reductions by 2050.
Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe.
Harrison, P.A. ; Holman, I.P. ; Cojocaru, G. ; Kok, K. ; Kontogianni, A. ; Metzger, M.J. ; Gramberger, M. - \ 2013
Regional Environmental Change 13 (2013)4. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 761 - 780.
global water-resources - agricultural land-use - north-west england - integrated assessment - east-anglia - model - scenarios - policy - scale - coastal
Abstract Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder ‘lay insight’ and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of ‘what if’s’ to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the ‘right’ answers.