Water allocation under future climate change and socio-economic development : the case of Pearl River Basin
Yan, Dan - \ 2017
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): P. Kabat, co-promotor(en): S.E. Werners; F. Ludwig; H.Q. Huang. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463438193 - 140
water allocation - climatic change - socioeconomics - china - watertoewijzing - klimaatverandering - sociale economie - china
Water shortage has become a major challenge in many parts of the world due to climate change and socio-economic development. Allocating water is critical to meet human and ecosystem needs in these regions now and in the future. However, water allocation is being challenged by uncertainties associated with climate change and socio-economic development. This thesis aims to assess the combined effects of climate change and socio-economic development on water supply and demand in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) in China, and identify water allocation plans, which are robust to future climate change and socio-economic development. To do so, the impact of climate change on future water availability is first assessed. Next, different model frameworks are developed to identify robust water allocation plans for improving reservoir management, ensuring sufficient flow into the delta to reduce salt intrusion, and providing sufficient freshwater for human and industrial consumption under future climate change and socio-economic development.
Results show that water availability is becoming more variable throughout the basin due to climate change. River discharge in the dry season is projected to decrease throughout the basin. For a moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5), low flows reduce between 6 and 48 % depending on locations. For a high climate change scenario (RCP8.5), the decreases of low flows can reach up to 72%. In the wet season, river discharge tends to increase in the middle and lower reaches and decreases in the upper reach of the Pearl River Basin. The variation of river discharge is likely to aggravate water stress. Especially the reduction of low flow is problematic as already the basin experiences water shortages during the dry season in the delta.
The model frameworks developed in this study not only evaluate the performance of existing water allocation plans in the past, but also the impact of future climate change on robustness of previous and newly generated water allocation plans. The performance of the four existing water allocation plans reduces under climate change. New water allocation plans generated by the two model frameworks perform much better than the existing plans. Optimising water allocation using carefully selected state-of-the-art multi-objective evolutionary algorithms in the Pearl River Basin can help limit water shortage and salt intrusion in the delta region. However, the current water allocation system with six key reservoirs is insufficient in maintaining the required minimum discharge at two selected gauge stations under future climate change. More reservoirs, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Pearl River, could potentially improve the future low flow into the delta.
This study also explored future water shortage in the Pearl River Basin under different water availability and water use scenarios. Four different strategies to allocate water were defined. These water allocation strategies prioritize upstream water use, Pearl River Delta water use, irrigation water use, and manufacturing water use, respectively. Results show that almost all the regions in the Pearl River Basin are likely to face temporary water shortage under the four strategies. The increasing water demand contributes twice as much as the decreasing water availability to water shortage. All four water allocation strategies are insufficient to solve the water scarcity in the Pearl River Basin. The economic losses differ greatly under the four water allocation strategies. Prioritizing the delta region or manufacturing production would result in lower economic losses than the other two strategies. However, all of them are rather extreme strategies. Development of water resources management strategies requires a compromise between different water users. Optimization algorithms prove to be flexible and useful tool in adaptive water resources allocation for providing multiple approximate Pareto solutions. In addition, new technologies and increasing water use efficiency will be important to deal with future water shortage in the Pearl River Basin.
Water use in a heavily urbanized delta : scenarios and adaptation options for sectorial water use in the Pearl River Basin, China
Yao, Mingtian - \ 2017
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): P. Kabat, co-promotor(en): S.E. Werners; R.W.A. Hutjes; Huang Heqing. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463438230 - 175
water use - water management - water resources - socioeconomics - salt water intrusion - water deficit - china - watergebruik - waterbeheer - watervoorraden - sociale economie - zoutwaterindringing - watertekort - china
Water use is increasing globally to meet the growing demand for food and industrial products, and the rising living standard. Water scarcity has been reported in many regions, questioning the long-term sustainability of water use. The objective of this thesis is to better understand sectorial water use development in an urbanizing river delta, and to explore the potential of water use management as an adaptation option to reduce water shortage. The Pearl River Basin in Southern China is taken as study area. The upstream part of the basin is one of the poorer regions of China, whereas the Pearl River Delta (PRD) is the world’s largest urban region in both population and area. This study presents the first consistent analysis of sectorial water use in the PRD. Results show that during the period of 2000-2010, the PRD managed to stabilize its annual total water use. Nevertheless, severe salt intrusion induced water shortages occur. Assessment of water use at a monthly resolution shows that water use contributes to salt intrusion by further reducing the already low dry season river discharge.
To investigate the possible future development of water use, this study proposed a method to derive region specific water use scenarios from a global assessment of water use. Scenarios based on regionalised assumptions project substantially lower water use than those based on national assumptions. Nevertheless, hydrological challenges remain for the PRD. The total water use of the PRD may still increase by up to 54% in 2030 in the regionalized scenarios. Also, water use in the upstream regions increases with socio-economic development. To address water shortage, four extreme water allocation strategies were analysed against water use and water availability scenarios under climate change. None of these strategies proved to be sufficient to fully avoid water scarcity in the Pearl River Basin.
This study obtains a better understanding of the sectorial water use development and its impact on salt intrusion induced water shortage in a heavily urbanized river delta. The water use framework and methods used to derive regional water use scenarios are transferable to other regions, provided that data is available. Water use scenarios are crucial to sustainably manage water resources in a changing world.
Agronomic and socioeconomic sustainability of farming systems : A case in Chencha, South Ethiopia
Dersseh, Waga Mazengia - \ 2017
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): P.C.. Struik, co-promotor(en): R.P.O. Schulte; D. Griffin. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463436830 - 157
potatoes - solanum tuberosum - ethiopia - food security - farming systems - mixed farming - sustainability - optimization - efficiency - farm surveys - household surveys - socioeconomics - self sufficiency - profits - training - agronomic characteristics - productivity - soil fertility - rotation - animal feeding - improved varieties - inorganic fertilizers - aardappelen - solanum tuberosum - ethiopië - voedselzekerheid - bedrijfssystemen - gemengde landbouw - duurzaamheid (sustainability) - optimalisatie - efficiëntie - bedrijfsonderzoeken - huishoudonderzoeken - sociale economie - zelfvoorziening - winsten - opleiding - agronomische kenmerken - productiviteit - bodemvruchtbaarheid - rotatie - diervoedering - veredelde rassen - anorganische meststoffen
Potato has multiple benefits and thus can play a vital role in ensuring food security in Ethiopia. However, for diverse reasons, its productivity is low. The farming systems in Ethiopia in which potato is grown, are predominantly mixed farming systems.
Most of the research in Ethiopia is focused on crop-specific constraints and thus there is limited research in which the interrelations between crop and livestock management practices are investigated. There is also not enough research focused on combined analysis of soil nutrient and animal feed balances and agronomic and socioeconomic efficiencies at farm level.
This study assessed production constraints and agronomic and socioeconomic sustainability of the farming systems in South Ethiopia and explored the possible synergetic options to alleviate major constraints. More specifically, the study intended to quantify the variation in input and output among farms, to identify constraints hindering expansion of potato production, to evaluate the sustainability of the farming systems at farm level, to identify constraints of sustainable intensification, and to explore synergetic solutions for the major constraints. Different research approaches were used ranging from lab analysis, household surveys, group discussions, to farm surveys.
Results showed that constraints related to input and product use in potato production vary across households indicating a need for a pluriform advisory model recognizing (and building upon alleviation of) the diversity of constraints identified in this analysis. The sustainability of the farming system is constrained by low agricultural productivity, low soil fertility, poor labour efficiency and limited economic return associated with improper crop rotation, inappropriate soil fertility management practices, shortage of animal feed, labour- and economically inefficient farm practices and labour shortage. However, there is ample scope to overcome the major constraints and simultaneously to optimize farm management.
The core messages of the study can be summarized as follows:
1) the current potato production is characterized by low productivity and economic returns due to various socioeconomic, agronomic and biological factors;
2) the soil fertility is low and there is uneven distribution of nutrients over plots with relatively high fertility levels in the homestead areas;
3) the current labour shortage can be attributed to mainly inefficiency of agricultural management practices and labour migration to towns for economic reasons indicating that the farming system is not sustainable in terms of labour;
4) considering the direct return from animal production, most of the farms had very low gross margin with the current management system and this reduced the overall operating profit of farms. The low return from animal rearing was offset by the relatively high profit from crop production indicating the benefit of mixed farming system in sustaining agricultural production; and
5) each farm can have a wide range of optimized solutions mainly through introduction of improved technologies and subsequent redesigning of the farm managements.
In general, the findings of the current study indicate that it is worthwhile to assess the sustainability of agricultural production in different farming systems and agro-ecologies of Ethiopia. In addition, the combined effect of introducing improved agricultural technologies and subsequent reconfiguring the farm management is very crucial to increase and sustain agricultural production.
Quantifying the impact of socioeconomic development and climate change on Escherichia coli concentrations in the Pakistani Kabul River
Iqbal, Shahid - \ 2017
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Rik Leemans, co-promotor(en): Nynke Hofstra. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463434478 - 183
escherichia coli - rivers - climatic change - socioeconomics - water quality - regression analysis - water pollution - health - escherichia coli - rivieren - klimaatverandering - sociale economie - waterkwaliteit - regressieanalyse - waterverontreiniging - gezondheid
Clean water is indispensable for the sustenance of life and maintenance of health. However, water quality is threatened by changes in socio-economic developments (population growth, urbanisation, livestock increase and sanitation) and climate (surface air temperature and precipitation patterns). Major water quality contaminants include microorganisms, such as fecal coliforms, Escherichia Coli (E.coli) and pathogens. Microbial contamination poses serious health risks in developing countries like Pakistan, where people do not have access to clean water due to lack of waste water treatment and thorough manure management. Therefore, to reduce the present and future health risk, it is important to understand the impacts of socio-economic development and climate-change on microbial fate and transport in surface water resources in the Kabul River Basin in Pakistan.
The objective of this study is quantifying the impact of socio-economic development and climate change on E.coli concentrations in the Pakistani Kabul River. To reach the objective, I sampled E.coli concentrations at several locations in Kabul River, applied statistical and process based modelling, developed future global change scenarios and analysed the impact of these scenarios on E.coli concentrations. I focus on E.coli rather than pathogens, because sampling of pathogens and its chemical analysis are expensive. Kabul River Basin is a tributary of the Indus river and is located in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKH) and suffers from floods every year. The population suffers from a high risk of waterborne diseases. The water is contaminated by direct sewage inputs from large cities, like Peshawar, direct manure inputs from animal sheds along the river and indirect manure inputs from the land.
Kabul River Basin is subjected to hazardous levels of microbiological pollution. The concentration of micro-organisms is influenced by hydro-climatic variables, such as water and surface air temperature, precipitation and discharge. However, the net effect of these variables remains thus far unclear. High concentrations of E.coli were found in the main stream and its tributaries (Chapter 2). Samples were collected along the Kabul river and drinking water samples from the city of Nowshera (April 2013 to July 2015) and all surface water samples violate the bathing water criteria and all drinking water samples violate the drinking water criteria. The correlation between hydro-climatic variables and E.coli concentration was analysed. Water temperature and surface air temperature were positively correlated, most likely because high temperatures coincide with high precipitation and discharge. Precipitation and river discharge data were also positively correlated with E.coli concentrations. This shows that precipitation, which increases the surface runoff, transports E.coli and other waterborne pathogens to the river nearby (correlation with precipitation) and further upstream (correlation with discharge). A regression model was also applied that explained 61% of the E.coli variability in surface water and 55% of E.coli variability in drinking water resources, even when other factors, such as location and land-use variables are ignored (Chapter 2).
To better understand the hydrology in the basin, the current and future flows of Kabul river were modelled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which serves as a basis for the process-based E.coli model. Flash floods occur every year in the basin as a result of increased discharge due to snow and glacier melt together with monsoon precipitation. The Kabul River Basin is one of the most vulnerable regional basin to climate change. The hydrological model was calibrated and validated for the full Kabul River Basin and performed well (NSE equals 0.77 and 0.72 respectively). Flood frequency and expected return period were analysed for a contemporary period (1981-2000) and two future periods (i.e. 2031-2050 and 2081-2100) using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on four bias-corrected downscaled climate models (Chapter 3). The flood frequency analysis shows that the present day’s one-in-a-fifty year event could occur between once in every 3 year (EC-EARTH and MIROC climate-models) and once in every 24 years (IPSL climate-model). This study presents climate-change impact assessment in the Kabul River Basin. The selected approach is in general well accepted in the scientific community and the results can be useful in flood management in the region. Outcomes of this study can be helpful for regions that have similar hydro-climatological conditions.
To better understand the fate and transport of bacteria from land to water resources and to assess source contribution, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated for E.coli. Our study is the first bacterial modelling study for the Kabul River Basin (Chapter 4). The simulated concentrations have slightly lower variability than the observed concentrations. The model performance could be improved further by using more input E.coli data, but the current model results agree well enough with our measured E.coli concentrations (NSE equals 0.69 and 0.66 for calibration and validation respectively). Based on the pathogen source estimations, point (direct) sources are identified to be the most important microbial pollution sources. Pollution from upstream areas is also important, while non-point (diffuse) sources play a role mostly during the periods with high discharge. Our study underlines the importance of wastewater treatment and manure management both in and upstream of the study area. Studies like ours were lacking in developing countries like Pakistan and can be used for scenario analyses in the region (Chapter 4). The model can be useful in microbial water quality assessments in other watersheds and for pathogenic microorganisms, such as Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus.
The calibrated and validated SWAT bacterial model (Chapter 4) was used to assess E.coli concentrations in a comprehensive scenario analysis (Chapter 5). We developed two future scenarios based on state-of-the-art approaches, using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), RCPs and own assumptions in line with the SSP storylines. We took the modelled E.coli concentrations from Chapter 4 as baseline scenarios and defines two future scenarios as Scenario_1 (sustainability scenario) and Scenario_2 (uncontrolled scenario). These scenarios represent different socio-economic development and climate change. The two scenarios were developed by combining SSP1, a sustainable, equitable and environmentally focussed world with RCP4.5 (limed climate change) in Scenario_1, and SSP3 (a divided world, with no interest in the environment) with RCP8.5 (strong climate change) in Scenario_2. Currently, no wastewater treatment plant exists in the basin, because the 2010 floods destroyed the available plants. We assumed excellent and poor wastewater and manure treatment for 2050s and 2100s for Scenario_1 and Scenario_2 respectively, in line with the storylines. Scenario_2 resulted in higher E.coli concentrations compared to the baseline scenarios due to high population growth, poor wastewater and manure treatment and land-use changes. However, microbial water quality was found to improve under Scenario_1. This was achieved by implementing improved and technologically advanced wastewater treatment and manure management. Future concentrations were found to be between 0.6% and 7% of the baseline concentrations depending on the treatment technology used (Chapter 5). This study highlights the need for substantial improvements in wastewater and manure treatment systems in the Kabul River Basin to assure future E.coli concentrations in water sources will be within the limits of WHO and US-EPA regulations for drinking and bathing water quality. The primary treatment facility that is currently installed is a good start, but insufficient to strongly reduce concentrations. Hence major investments are required to install technologically advanced wastewater treatment and manure treatment plants to cut-down the current contamination level of Kabul river.
My PhD thesis provides a base for devising optimal coping strategies that are essential for the sustainability of hydrological resources under socio-economic developments and climate-change impacts. The results of our research are helpful to further assess alternative water quality management options. The outcomes of this study also increase the knowledge in the field of microbial fate and transport in water resources in a developing country like Pakistan, where such studies are lacking. A limited number of previous studies on global change impacts on microbial contamination of surface water in other areas of the world focused only on the climate-change impacts on microbial water quality. This is the first study to evaluate the influence of combined socio-economic and climate-change impacts on E.coli concentrations in the Kabul River Basin. The developed SWAT model and scenario analysis can be used for other contaminants, such as nutrients, pesticides and heavy metals. Our study can be a first step to improve water quality of the Kabul River Basin by providing tools for water managers and health specialists to improve the water quality and reduce the risks related to the use of contaminated water resources. This study will be useful not only in this region, but also for other regions of the world with similar microbial water contamination issues.
The Mekong’s future flows : quantifying hydrological changes and developing adaptation options
Hoang, Long Phi - \ 2017
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): P. Kabat; R. Leemans, co-promotor(en): F. Ludwig; M.T.H. van Vliet. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463431088 - 159
hydrology - mekong river - modeling - climatic change - socioeconomics - water resources - water use - south east asia - hydrologie - mekong - modelleren - klimaatverandering - sociale economie - watervoorraden - watergebruik - zuidoost-azië
This multidisciplinary study focuses on projecting and adapting to future hydrological changes in the Mekong – an international river of global significance in terms of rapidly increasing human pressures and climate-change vulnerability. A modelling framework was developed to project future changes in both the river flow regime and hydrological extremes (i.e. high/low flows and floods), under multiple scenarios of climate change, irrigation and hydropower developments. Furthermore, we developed a combined quantitative-qualitative approach to develop suitable adaptation measures and strategies to future floods in the Mekong Delta being a key vulnerability hotspot.
Results show that the Mekong’s future flow regime is subjected to substantial changes under climate change and human developments. Climate change will intensify the hydrological cycle, resulting in increasing average river flows (between +5 % and +16%, annually), and more frequent and extreme high flows during the wet season. Flow regime shows substantial alterations in the seasonal flow distributions under the combined impacts of climate change, irrigation expansions and hydropower developments. While dry season flows increase strongly (monthly changes up to +150%), wet season flows show contrasting changes with reductions during June - October (up to -25%) and substantial increases during November – December (up to 36%). A follow-up modelling assessment for the Mekong Delta shows substantial increases in flood hazards under climate change and sea level rise, shown by higher flood frequencies and flood depths across the whole delta. Increasing flood hazards therefore represents a key issue to be addressed in terms of future adaptation. The adaptation appraisal study further shows that effective adaptation requires looking beyond sole infrastructural investments. Instead, technological innovations for flood risk management combined with improved governance and institutional capacities offer ample opportunities to adapt to future hydrological changes.
This study projects substantial future hydrological changes under future climate change and accelerating socioeconomic developments and shows potentially serious consequences for water related safety and sustainable water resources uses and allocations. Furthermore, this study demonstrates amble opportunities to manage future changes through strategic development planning and through adaptive interventions. Insights from this study address the needs for quantified future hydrological changes and emphasize adequate adaptation to the associated risks in an important international river experiencing climate change and rapid socioeconomic developments.
Biofuel production in Vietnam : Greenhouse gas emissions and socioeconomic impacts
Thanh, L. le - \ 2016
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Ekko van Ierland; Xueqin Zhu. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789462576186 - 197
biofuels - greenhouse gases - environmental economics - emission - socioeconomics - fuels - natural resources - vietnam - biobrandstoffen - broeikasgassen - milieueconomie - emissie - sociale economie - brandstoffen - natuurlijke hulpbronnen - vietnam
The overall objective of this thesis is to study the energy efficiency, GHG emission savings, and the economic viability of biofuels as energy for transportation and to examine the impacts of biofuel policies on food production, welfare, and emission in Vietnam.
Fisheries displacement effects related to closed areas : a literature review of relevant aspects
Slijkerman, D.M.E. ; Tamis, J.E. - \ 2015
Den Helder : IMARES (Report / IMARES C170/15) - 51
marine fisheries - fishing grounds - displacement - environmental protection - socioeconomics - fishery management - north sea - netherlands - zeevisserij - visgronden - verplaatsing - milieubescherming - sociale economie - visserijbeheer - noordzee - nederland
An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet
Weijerman, M. - \ 2015
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Rik Leemans; Wolf Mooij, co-promotor(en): E.A. Fulton; R.E. Brainard. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789462574304 - 285
koraalriffen - milieubeheer - aquatische ecosystemen - aquatische ecologie - oceanografie - modellen - ecosystemen - sociale economie - coral reefs - environmental management - aquatic ecosystems - aquatic ecology - oceanography - models - ecosystems - socioeconomics
Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem services, and the loss of functionally important species. Marine resource managers are challenged with providing strategies that can mitigate or prevent such phase shifts and losses and promote the sustainable use of marine resources. Additionally, managers need to take into account the impacts of these strategies on the socioeconomic conditions of the many resource users. To respond to these challenges scientists, managers and policy makers have advocated for an ecosystem-based approach instead of the traditional focus on individual (economically important) species. Ecosystem-based management includes the various dynamic processes that influence an ecosystem, such as hydrology, ecology, biogeochemistry, and human activities.
The management strategy evaluation (MSE) tool commonly used in single species stock assessments for evaluating socioeconomic and ecological tradeoffs of alternative management strategies, has now become more widely applied in multi-species or ecosystem assessments. Ecosystem modelling can include more of the key dynamic processes that drive ecosystems and by using that in an MSE framework provides a better understanding of the socio-ecological consequences of management options and quantifies these tradeoffs.
In this thesis, I review the use of minimal, intermediate and complex coral reef ecosystem models for their suitability of MSE applications. I conclude that complex models can integrate the myriad dynamic processes that govern coral reef ecosystems and are most suitable for MSE, but that minimal and intermediate models are needed to provide the relationships relevant to these dynamics. The main objective of this thesis was to develop a complex model and quantify the effects of watershed management and fishery regulations on coral reef ecosystem services against a backdrop of climate change impacts. For this model development, I selected the Atlantis ecosystem model framework and applied it to a case study of the coral reef ecosystems around Guam to evaluate the performance of alternative management strategies against identified ecosystem metrics.
Following the step-wise approach recommended for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments, I started with a workshop involving local stakeholders (including resource managers and other coral reef users) to identify the (1) overarching goal of coral reef management, (2) ecological indicators of reef status, and (3) socioeconomic indicators of reef users. Using an Ecopath model I identified additional ecosystem indicators of fishing impacts that could also be used as performance metrics in the ecosystem modelling of alternative strategies. Published relationships for key coral reef dynamics were used to apply the Atlantis framework to coral reef ecosystems. I then developed and parameterized the Guam Atlantis model including 42 functional species groups and the system impacts of eutrophication, sedimentation, fishing and ocean warming and acidification. I validated the model simulations of no local or global stressors, a ‘control run’, following common guidelines for Atlantis development and I validated the added dynamics with published and empirical data or with expert judgement. Due to the absence of time series, model skill assessment was difficult but I could compare biomass of included fish groups after a 1985–2015 simulation with observational data in 2011. These results showed that the model is biased and overestimates various fish groups. However, because the origin of the bias is unknown, rectifying the bias at this point was not possible. Despite this, based on the model validations I concluded that the model was ‘scenario ready’ and suitable for use as a basis of relative comparisons of management strategies, allowing for evaluations to be conducted in an internally consistent context.
I applied the model to evaluate the relative performance of management strategies against a set of criteria based on the overall goals identified by local resource managers. These included: (1) improved water quality, (2) increased reef resilience, (3) enhanced fish biomass, and (4) similar or improved fishery landings. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed ‘best’ for at least one of the performance indicators. The integrated ‘full regulation’ scenario (size and bag limits, marine preserves and no land-based sources of pollution) outperformed other scenarios with two thirds of the performance metrics approaching the criteria at the cost of reef-fish landings. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, the selected scenarios performed fairly equally, but none could prevent a collapse in coral biomass by mid-century under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission scenario. To get a better understanding of how these same management scenarios influence the economically important tourism sector and the socially important reef-fishing sector, I coupled the Guam Atlantis model to two human behavior models, one representing divers and the other fishers.
Ecosystem modelling also allows for the comparison of cumulative impacts. Assessments of individual and cumulative impacts of three stressors to reef ecosystems: land-based sources of pollution, fishing and climate change, showed that, to-date, fishing has had the most negative influence on ecosystem metrics that represent reef status, resilience and functioning, and climate change will have the most negative effect in the future most noticeably on the benthic community structure. Cumulative simulations generally showed that the actual effect was slightly less than could be expected based on the sum of their individual effects, keeping in mind that the actual effect size was negative.
With this model now developed, it provides a tool for assessing and quantifying a range of questions in support for EBM for coral reef ecosystems.
Socio-economic impact of landing obligation for the Dutch demersal fisheries
Turenhout, Mike - \ 2015
demersal fisheries - socioeconomics - economic impact - social impact - netherlands - landings
Socioeconomic differences in micronutrient intake and status in Europe
Novakovic, R.N. - \ 2013
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Pieter van 't Veer; Lisette de Groot, co-promotor(en): Anouk Geelen; M. Gurinovic. - [S.l. : S.n. - ISBN 9789461735775 - 154
sporenelementen - voedingsstoffenopname (mens en dier) - voedingstoestand - sociale economie - sociaal-economische positie - europa - vitaminen - trace elements - nutrient intake - nutritional state - socioeconomics - socioeconomic status - europe - vitamins
The aim of this thesis was to evaluate micronutrient intake and status of socioeconomic disadvantaged populations, such as from Central and Eastern European (CEE) as compared to other European populations, and low socioeconomic status (SES) groups as compared to high SES groups within European countries. We addressed the micronutrients that have been prioritized because of their relevance for nutritional health by the EC-funded EURRECA Network of Excellence. Moreover, we assessed the association between folate intake and status which can be used in the process of setting folate DRVs.
Micronutrient intake and status of CEE countries versus other European countries
CEE countries have recently experienced rising income inequalities over a period of economic transition. There is some evidence that these reforms have been accompanied by health inequalities. Inadequacy in micronutrient intake and status may contribute to these inequalities. Because in more affluent Western European countries wide ranges in micronutrient intake and status are observed, we studied if low micronutrient intake and status levels are prevailing in CEE. The findings from this thesis signal no differences in micronutrient intake and status between CEE populations in comparison to those of other European regions with the exception of calcium intake in adults and iodine status in children that were lower in CEE than in other European regions. Since data from Western Europe indicate that inadequacies do exist among SES strata, more insight in the nutritional situation of lower SES populations in CEE and an understanding of both its determinants and consequences is needed. It is important to mention that evidence from grey literature added to that from open access sources. Fundamental to further studying of nutritional health in CEE, is suitable data. We underline the necessity for conducting nutritional surveillances on micronutrient intake and status in CEE as we have identified significant knowledge gaps for many life-stage groups.
Differences in micronutrient intake between SES groups
Considering that not enough studies have addressed the relationship between SES and micronutrient intake and status in their analyses of nutritional health, we performed a systematic review on this topic and we used data from the large European EPIC cohort to address that issue.
To be able to conclude on socioeconomic, i.e. educational, occupational and income, inequalities associated with intake and status of prioritized micronutrients for all life stages in Europe, substantial knowledge gaps should be filled. Currently, data are mostly available for the intake of calcium, vitamin C and iron as collected from adults in Western European countries. When either of the above mentioned SES indicators was applied to estimate relative differences in micronutrient intake and status between the lowest and the highest SES category within one study, the results often, but not consistently, indicated a lower intake and/or status in low versus high SES groups. For example, in eight out of ten studies a lower intake for calcium intake was found with relative differences ranging from -2 to -14%. Similar patterns were found for vitamin C and iron: in eleven out of twelve studies relative differences ranged from -5 to -48% for vitamin C, whereas in nine of ten studies on iron relative differences went up to -14%. Studies on intake and/or status of folate, vitamin B12, zinc, iodine, and intake of vitamin D, selenium and copper were limited. Still, when differences were observed, it appeared that lower intake in low than in high SES groups was found except for vitamin B12 and zinc for which the findings were inconsistent.
Furthermore, using education as a proxy for SES, we assessed differences in micronutrient intake between educational levels using the individual-participant data on European adults and elderly from the EPIC cohort. Based on data from 10 Western European countries it appeared that intake of calcium (except in France and a distinctive ‘health-conscious’ group in the UK), folate (except in Greece), and vitamin C was lower in the lowest than in the highest education groups: relative differences ranged up to 12, 13 and 23%, respectively. The intake of iron differed marginally, whereas the variation in intake of vitamins D and B12 was inconsistent. The observed association between educational level and intake of micronutrients was the same for men and women. Furthermore, differences in micronutrient intake were found to be larger between countries than between SES groups.
With respect to SES differences in micronutrient intake and status, there are significant gaps in the open source literature for many life-stage groups in Europe, but particularly in CEE countries. There is a clear need for cross-country and within country comparative research and for the monitoring of trends in dietary intake across different SES groups and European countries.
Relationship between folate intake and status to add complementary evidence for deriving folate dietary reference values (DRVs)
DRVs are under continuous review and periodic revision as the cumulative evidence base and body of knowledge evolve. Folate is considered a public health priority micronutrient for which re-evaluation of DRVs is needed. For this micronutrient, a systematic review of observational studies on the relationship between intake and status was done followed by meta-analysis. The intake of folate was significantly associated with markers of folate status. The results of our meta-analysis showed that an average person with a folate intake of 100 µg/day has a serum/plasma folate status concentration that is 26% higher and a red blood cell folate status that is 21% higher than a person who has a folate intake of 50 µg/day; plasma homocysteine was found to be 16% lower. The difference between natural food folate and that from supplements and fortified foods (folic acid) significantly influenced the estimated relationship between folate intake and serum/plasma status. Associations were stronger when assessed as folate from the diet than as folate from diet and supplements. Dietary assessment method did not significantly influence the association, although pooled estimates were somewhat higher when FFQs were used as compared to 24-hour recalls combined with food records. To focus on the impact of poor intakes on related health outcomes, data modelling can be conducted to produce estimates for Average Nutrient Requirements. For this analysis datasets and statistical models developed within the EURRECA NoE are available and can be used.
Overall, further research would benefit from methodologically comparable data on food intake in all age ranges, especially on so far understudied CEE populations. Both intakes obtained through diet and from supplements and fortified foods should be assessed. Monitoring of trends across SES strata should be done with standardized SES measurements that would also facilitate cross-country comparative research. The findings on the level and distribution of micronutrient intake and status could be used for development of food based dietary guidelines. To make them effective in meeting populations’ micronutrient needs, they should be created accounting for the country specific dietary patterns giving consideration to the socioeconomic context.
|Regionale clustermonitor voor Topsectoren, Agro-industrie en Bio-economie
Leeuwen, M.G.A. van - \ 2012
officiële statistieken - landbouwstatistieken - agrarische economie - biobased economy - sociale economie - duurzaamheid (sustainability) - economische sectoren - official statistics - agricultural statistics - agricultural economics - socioeconomics - sustainability - economic sectors
Deze monitor presenteert tabellen, grafieken en kaartjes over de bijdrage van Topsectoren, Agro-industrie en Bio-economie aan de socio-economie en duurzaamheid van Nederlandse provincies en regio's, in verleden en toekomst. Met aandacht voor zowel de direct bijdrage van sectoren, als de indirecte bijdrage ervan via hun verwevenheid met de rest van de economie.
Foot disorders in dairy cattle : a socio-economic approach to improve dairy cow welfare
Bruijnis, M.R.N. - \ 2012
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Elsbeth Stassen, co-promotor(en): Henk Hogeveen. - S.l. : s.n. - ISBN 9789461733924 - 174
melkvee - melkkoeien - voetziekten - dierenwelzijn - diergezondheid - sociale economie - simulatiemodellen - verliezen - gebruiksduur - melkveehouderij - dairy cattle - dairy cows - foot diseases - animal welfare - animal health - socioeconomics - simulation models - losses - longevity - dairy farming
Klauwaandoeningen en de kreupelheid die daardoor ontstaat zijn een belangrijk probleem in de huidige melkveehouderij. Op basis van de incidentie, duur en ernst van klauwaandoeningen, worden ze aangemerkt als het belangrijkste welzijnsprobleem. Ondanks dat er veel kennis is over de klauwaandoeningen en de risicofactoren, is het probleem nog niet afgenomen. Bovendien onderschatten melkveehouders de grootte van het probleem van klauwaandoeningen, evenals de relatie met kreupelheid.
Public and private service provision of solid waste management in Kampala, Uganda
Katusiimeh, M.W. - \ 2012
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Arthur Mol; Erwin Bulte, co-promotor(en): Kees Burger. - S.l. : s.n. - ISBN 9789461732903 - 186
afvalbeheer - vaste afvalstoffen - afvalverwijdering - uganda - milieubeleid - overheidsdiensten - dienstensector - afrika - cost effective analysis - sociale economie - waste management - solid wastes - waste disposal - uganda - environmental policy - public services - services - africa - cost effectiveness analysis - socioeconomics
Following the largely unimpressive performance of the public sector in the provision of solid waste services in many cities of African countries, the search for alternative strategies for addressing this challenge became inevitable. One of the strategies is the involvement of the private sector in solid waste management. As of today, the contribution by the private sector to solid waste service provision is now a common phenomenon in most cities in developing countries. However, SWM cannot be easily left to be handled by the private sector alone because it has strong external effects and markets may not achieve socially acceptable levels of equity. Therefore, public intervention is necessary for example in form of regulation of the private sector. Public intervention has sometimes involved governments allocating huge sums of money for beautification of cities especially when major events are hosted in those cities with upgrading of waste management services given a special consideration. Even without government involvement, a proportion of people who make a living from activities in the informal sector have played a big role in solid waste management in many cities in the developing world.
Despite the active involvement of many actors in SWM and the policies and initiatives introduced and implemented in recent decades in East Africa, many urban centres are still facing major problems. Even where successes have been registered, the question is whether that success can be sustained for a long time. This study addresses the situation of household waste collection in Kampala. It is one of the key factors in ensuring the health and safety of the population. This study is part of the Partnerships for Research on Viable Environmental Infrastructure in East Africa (PROVIDE), towards sustainable waste water and solid waste infrastructures in East African cities. It contributes to the PROVIDE project by addressing issues of governance and management of solid waste in Kampala. The study’s contribution is a deeper understanding of the various actors in solid waste collection and the performance of the interventions and policies so far implemented in the solid waste management sector in Kampala. Specifically, the study compares the operations and assesses the effectiveness of public and private provision of solid waste collection in Kampala; examines the effect of removal of communal containers popularly known as ‘skips’ in Kampala; examines how the informal sector co-exists with the formal sector in solid waste collection in Kampala and lastly examines the environmental legacies related to solid waste management from hosting the 2007 CHOGM event in Uganda.
Chapter two compares the operations and discusses the effectiveness of public and private sector provision of solid waste collection in Kampala, Uganda. Household data suggest that the private sector is more effective than the public sector. Private sector companies provide services like container provision and providing timely and fixed collection time tables. Contrary to popular perception, fees charged by private companies are moderate. Public sector clients are charged fees even when the service is supposed to be free. Clients of private sector providers are more satisfied than those of public sector providers. It is however, revealed that while public sector serve mainly the low incomes, the private sector serves mainly the rich. In spite of these notable differences, clients of both public and private sector perceive the problem of solid waste management (SWM) in Kampala to be very serious. The effectiveness of public and private sector operations in solid waste collection in Kampala is hampered by corruption and lack of transparency.
Chapter three examines the impact of the removal of communal containers (skips) in Kampala. From the analysis related to the choices made and the perceptions after most of the skips were removed, the major alternative to skips was the use of the commercial services, mainly private sector’s services. When asked to rate the skips system, the respondents in the surveys indicated a strong association of skips with lack of cleanliness. The lack of satisfaction with the skip system (and appreciation of the current system) was most notably recorded in high-income areas. On average the present system was much better evaluated. We found that the evaluation of skips is negatively affected by not only the income level of the neighbourhood but also the household income and education level. In addition, we found a weak positive effect of the current fees paid. The effects of income are strong enough to render the evaluation of the skips system equal, if not superior to the current system for the households with lower income and education and outside the rich areas. The removal of many of the skips not only induced the former skip-users to switch to commercial services, but also enabled many non-users of skips to avail of these services. The lowest benefits are derived from mere dumping and many households have chosen to abandon this practice in exchange for commercial solid waste collection services, typically much more expensive. Formerly many households paid people (informal workers) to take their waste to collection points, including the skips. These informal workers continued to do so, though some shifted to using commercial services especially (formal) private sector. The advent of the (formal) private sector thus led to a decrease of the demand for informal services. The evaluation by households of the waste disposal services before and after the removal of skips shows that richer households are clearly pleased with the removal, but that poorer households, particularly those with low levels of education do not feel better served than they were before.
Chapter four addresses the co-existence of formal and informal providers in solid waste collection in Kampala. Study findings show that the informal collectors distinguish themselves from the formal waste collectors by providing ‘first-line’ services only, taking garbage away from households, but not taking this all the way to the dumpsite. They avoid regulation more than large firms. As the opportunities for restricting themselves to this stage are typically enhanced by KCC that offers (free-access) container services, informal collectors can be seen as structurally linked to the formal public sector. And the informal providers provide a cheaper, but lower rated level of service, and more often (but certainly not exclusively) to poorer households. The fairly large market shares of informal collectors can be explained by their competitiveness vis-à-vis the formal private sector: their fees are substantially lower than private sector fees. The informal collectors can do so as they provide less packaging material, have little equipment, and do not carry waste far. In fact they exploit the lapse in enforcement of environmental regulation. Their continued role next to public service provision is explained by them filling a niche in taking garbage from the households to collection points, while earning incomes at par with alternative occupations.
Chapter five examines the environmental legacies of major events in cities of the developing world. The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Kampala is taken as a case study. Although CHOGM was not a mega-event (in terms of infrastructure construction, masses of people attending, and intense global media coverage), for Uganda and Kampala it was a major event with international visibility. Hence, significant efforts were made by the Uganda and Kampala authorities to invest in the city in the road towards CHOGM 2007. Solid waste management was one of the main areas that received additional resources and faced institutional changes. This resulted in considerable improvements in solid waste management practices during CHOGM, as could be expected. As solid waste management often differs throughout metropolitan cities in developing countries and major events are not equally spread over these cities one can expect that environmental legacies are unequally distributed over the city. Following CHOGM, we found that there are no longer significant different perceptions in solid waste management between Central and Kawempe divisions. Central division and Kawempe division are perceived as equally clean (or equally dirty), suggesting that solid waste management innovations are gradually spreading across divisions. In a more fine-tuned comparison between citizens living close to places where the CHOGM events took place and locations more peripheral to CHOGM, the distinction in solid waste management started to fade somewhat during CHOGM, but there are signs of a reemerging distinction, indicating the erosion of leveling effects. However, this does not dispute the fact that, one year after CHOGM, solid waste management was perceived to be still significantly better than before CHOGM.
Generally, this research has shown the dynamics involved in the public and private provisioning of solid waste services. The reform initiatives introduced have had an impact on the general organization of SWM. What clearly comes out of this study are the challenges faced in public and private provisioning of solid waste services. It is also clear that certain policies like privatization if not well thought out could end up being not helpful to some sections of the population especially the marginalized ones. Finally, in agreement with the modernized mixtures approach, we can derive the conclusion that SWM initiatives and reforms are likely to have a positive impact if all actors and stakeholders are involved. The mixture of actors and strategies are required for solid waste management to improve for instance an appropriate mix of public and private service (formal and informal).
Adapting agriculture in 2050 in Flevoland; perspectives from stakeholders
Schaap, B.F. ; Reidsma, P. ; Mandryk, M. ; Verhagen, A. ; Wal, M.M. van der; Wolf, J. ; Ittersum, M.K. van - \ 2011
Wageningen : Wageningen UR (AgriAdapt Project report 6)
boeren - houding van boeren - innovaties - flevoland - sociale economie - rurale sociologie - farmers - farmers' attitudes - innovations - flevoland - socioeconomics - rural sociology
Although recently more research has gone into farm level studies, little attention has been given to the variety of responses of farmers, considering their characteristics, objectives and the socio-economic, technological and political contexts (Reidsma et al, 2010). In the Agri-Adapt project we focus on farm level adaptation within an agricultural region considering the socio-economic context of 2050.
Control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza; Epidemiological and economic aspects
Backer, J.A. ; Bergevoet, R.H.M. ; Fischer, E.A.J. ; Nodelijk, G. ; Bosman, K.J. ; Saatkamp, H.W. ; Roermund, H.J.W. van - \ 2011
Den Haag : LEI, part of Wageningen UR (LEI report 2011-032) - ISBN 9789086155200 - 80
aviaire influenzavirussen - pluimveeziekten - dierziekten - pluimvee - ziektebestrijding - vaccinatie - methodologie - efficiëntie - invloeden - epidemiologie - economische aspecten - economische situatie - economie - sociale economie - economische analyse - europese unie - nederland - avian influenza viruses - poultry diseases - animal diseases - poultry - disease control - vaccination - methodology - efficiency - influences - epidemiology - economic aspects - economic situation - economics - socioeconomics - economic analysis - european union - netherlands
Epidemieën van hoog pathogene aviaire influenza (HPAI) kunnen een grote invloed hebben op het dierenwelzijn, de pluimveesector en, vanwege de zoönotische aard, ook op de volksgezondheid. Vanwege de vele mogelijke insleeproutes, reservoirs en mutaties in laag pathogene AI (LPAI) loopt het pluimvee in Nederland voortdurend het gevaar te worden besmet met HPAI. In geval van een uitbraak moeten de besmette boerderijen worden geruimd, moet het transport worden gereguleerd, moeten er beschermings- en toezichtsgebieden worden opgezet en moeten gevaarlijke contacten worden opgespoord, dit alles volgens de vereisten van de EU. Er kunnen ook bestrijdingsmaatregelen worden genomen om de blootgestelde bedrijfsdichtheid in het getroffen gebied te verkleinen door preventief ruimen of vaccineren. Net zoals in 2003, kan een nieuwe HPAI epidemie grote gevolgen hebben voor de pluimveesector. Het bestrijden van aangifteplichtige ziektes zoals AI door grootschalig preventief ruimen, wordt maatschappelijk steeds minder geaccepteerd, en de roep om alternatieve bestrijdingsmaatregelen zoals vaccinatie wordt steeds luider. Dit onderzoek ondersteunt het besluitvormingsproces.
Kennisagenda EL&I en bevolkingsdaling
Breman, B.C. ; Coninx, I. - \ 2011
Wageningen : Alterra (Alterra-rapport 2168) - 31
bevolkingsafname - overheidsbeleid - sociale economie - landgebruik - nederland - population decrease - government policy - socioeconomics - land use - netherlands
Het thema krimp staat hoog op de politieke en bestuurlijke agenda. Krimp is in eerste instantie een demografisch verschijnsel maar bevolkingsdaling heeft ook invloed op de sociaal-economische omstandigheden en op (het gebruik van) de fysieke ruimte. Daarmee heeft krimp heeft ook (potentiële) gevolgen voor de domeinen van het ministerie van EL&I en voor het realiseren van de bijbehorende beleidsdoelstellingen. Andersom kan vanuit de EL&I-beleidsdomeinen mogelijk ook een bijdrage worden geleverd aan de ontwikkeling van krimp- en anticipeerregio’s.
Scaling and governance conference 2010 : "Towards a New Knowledge for Scale Sensitive Governance of Complex Systems" : conference program and book of abstracts, Wageningen, the Netherlands November 11-12, 2010
Kolijn, B. - \ 2010
Wageningen : Wageningen University - 103
ecosystemen - ecologie - landgebruik - sociale economie - meervoudige schalen - governance - conferenties - ecosystems - ecology - land use - socioeconomics - multiple scales - governance - conferences
Both the ecological and the socio-economic domain are organized across a multitude of scales and levels. Governance encompasses all those structures and activities of social, political and administrative actors that can be seen as purposeful efforts to guide, steer, control, or manage sustainable development or other moral principles like good governance, accountability or environmental justice.
Assessment of the status, development and diversification of fisheries-dependent communities: Urk Case Study Report
Delaney, A.E. ; Hoefnagel, E.W.J. ; Bartelings, H. ; Oosterhout, J. van - \ 2010
The Hague : LEI, part of Wageningen UR (EU Fish 2006 / 09. 2010) - 33
vissersgemeenschappen - visserij - sociale verandering - sociale ontwikkeling - sociale gevolgen - sociale situatie - demografie - economische situatie - sociale economie - werkgelegenheid - flevoland - fishing communities - fisheries - social change - social development - social impact - social situation - demography - economic situation - socioeconomics - employment - flevoland
This case study about Urk shows which social and economic challenges this traditional fishing community faces due to its specialization on just a few stocks, the increasing independence of a processing sector no longer reliant on it to supply locally caught fish, and culturally preferences in the way of life and ways of doing things, and the additional hardship of limited TACs, forced decommissioning, low stock prices, and high fixed costs (fuel costs).
Jatropha Assessment. Agronomy, socio-economic issues, and ecology. Facts from literature.
Eijck, J.A.J. van; Smeets, E. ; Romijn, H.A. ; Balkema, A.J. ; Jongschaap, R.E.E. - \ 2010
Utrecht, the Netherlands : NL Agency (Report NL Agency, November 2010 ) - 157
jatropha - agronomie - sociale economie - duurzaamheid (sustainability) - voedselzekerheid - haalbaarheidsstudies - biobased economy - jatropha - agronomy - socioeconomics - sustainability - food security - feasibility studies - biobased economy
Jatropha (Jatropha curcas L.) has been promoted as a potential renewable energy source for many of its advantageous properties in comparison to other biomass feedstock. This report summarises the agronomy, socio-economic issues, and ecology facts from literature on Jatropha. Such an overview is essential to formulate recommendations and policy guidelines to stimulate best project practices and also help to avoid the promotion of unviable or unsustainable practices.
Destructive storms in European Forests: Past and Forthcoming Impacts. Final report to European Commission - DG Environment,
Gardiner, B. ; Blennow, K. ; Carnus, J.M. ; Fleischner, P. ; Ingemarson, F. ; Landmann, G. ; Lindner, M. ; Marzano, M. ; Nicoll, B. ; Orazio, C. ; Peyron, J.L. ; Reviron, M.P. ; Schelhaas, M. ; Schuck, A. ; Spielmann, M. ; Usbeck, T. - \ 2010
Joensuu, Finland : European Forest Institute - 138
bossen - bosschade - stormen - windschade - sociale economie - bosbeleid - herstel - europa - forests - forest damage - storms - wind damage - socioeconomics - forest policy - rehabilitation - europe