Substantial Reductions in Cloud Cover and Moisture Transport by Dynamic Plant Responses
Sikma, Martin ; Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Jordi - \ 2019
Geophysical Research Letters 46 (2019)3. - ISSN 0094-8276 - p. 1870 - 1878.
cloud shading - heterogeneity - land-atmosphere interactions - LES - plant stomatal responses - wind
Cumulus clouds make a significant contribution to the Earth's energy balance and hydrological cycle and are a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. Reducing uncertainty by expanding our understanding of the processes that drive cumulus convection is vital to the accurate identification of future global and regional climate impacts. Here we adopt an interdisciplinary approach that integrates interrelated scales from plant physiology to atmospheric turbulence. Our explicit simulations mimic the land-atmosphere approach implemented in current numerical weather prediction, and global climate models enable us to conclude that neglecting local plant dynamic responses leads to misrepresentations in the cloud cover and midtropospheric moisture convection of up to 21% and 56%, respectively. Our approach offers insights into the key role played by the active vegetation on atmospheric convective mixing that has recently been identified as the source of half of the variance in global warming projections (i.e., equilibrium climate sensitivity).
In de stad waait het wat harder
Droste, A.M. - \ 2018
towns - wind - air quality
Cities are windier
Droste, A.M. - \ 2018
towns - wind - climate - air quality
Towns and cities are sometimes windier than the surrounding countryside, found researcher Arjan Droste. He calls this surprising phenomenon the wind island effect.
The Importance of Combined Tidal and Meteorological Forces for the Flow and Sediment Transport on Intertidal Shoals
de Vet, P.L.M. ; van Prooijen, B.C. ; Schrijvershof, R.A. ; van der Werf, J.J. ; Ysebaert, T. ; Schrijver, M.C. ; Wang, Z.B. - \ 2018
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 123 (2018)10. - ISSN 2169-9003 - p. 2464 - 2480.
hydrodynamics - intertidal area - morphology - numerical model - sediment transport - wind
Estuarine intertidal areas are shaped by combined astronomical and meteorological forces. This paper reveals the relative importance of tide, surge, wind, and waves for the flow and sediment transport on large intertidal shoals. Results of an intensive field campaign have been used to validate a numerical model of the Roggenplaat intertidal shoal in the Eastern Scheldt Estuary, the Netherlands, in order to identify and quantify the importance of each of the processes over time and space. We show that its main tidal creeks are not the cause for the dominant direction of the net flow on the shoal. The tidal flow over the shoal is steered by the water level differences between the surrounding channels. Also during wind events, the tidal flow (enhanced by surge) is dominant in the creeks. In contrast, wind speeds of order 40 times the typical tidal flow velocity are sufficient to completely alter the flow direction and magnitude on an intertidal shoal. This has significant consequences for the sediment transport patterns. Apart from this wind-driven flow dominance during these events, the wind also increases the bed shear stress by waves. For the largest intertidal part of the Roggenplaat, only ∼1–10% of the yearly transport results from the 50% least windy tides, even if the shoal is artificially lowered half the tidal range. This dominance of energetic meteorological conditions in the transports matches with field observations, in which the migration of the creeks and high parts of the shoal are in line with the predominant wind direction.
Introducing the urban wind island effect
Droste, A.M. ; Steeneveld, G.J. ; Holtslag, A.A.M. - \ 2018
Environmental Research Letters 13 (2018)9. - ISSN 1748-9318
meteorology - model - urban climate - urban weather - wind - wind island
Wind is a key component of the urban climate due to its relevance for ventilation of air pollution and urban heat, wind nuisance, as well as for urban wind energy engineering. These winds are governed by the dynamics of the atmosphere closest to the surface, the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Making use of a conceptual bulk model of the ABL, we find that for certain atmospheric conditions the boundary-layer mean wind speed in a city can surprisingly be higher than its rural counterpart, despite the higher roughness of cities. This urban wind island effect (UWI) prevails in the afternoon, and appears to be caused by a combination of differences in ABL growth, surface roughness and the ageostrophic wind, between city and countryside. Enhanced turbulence in the urban area deepens the ABL, and effectively mixes momentum into the ABL from aloft. Furthermore, the oscillation of the wind around the geostrophic equilibrium, caused by the rotation of the Earth, can create episodes where the urban boundary-layer mean wind speed is higher than the rural wind. By altering the surface properties within the bulk model, the sensitivity of the UWI to urban morphology is studied for the 10 urban local climate zones (LCZs). These LCZs classify neighbourhoods in terms of building height, vegetation cover etc, and represent urban morphology regardless of culture or location. The ideal circumstances for the UWI to occur are a deeper initial urban boundary-layer than in the countryside, low-rise buildings (up to 12 m) and a moderate geostrophic wind (∼5 m s-1). The UWI phenomenon challenges the commonly held perception that urban wind is usually reduced due to drag processes. Understanding the UWI can become vital to accurately model urban air pollution, quantify urban wind energy potential or create accurate background conditions for urban computational fluid dynamics models.
Interactions among drainage flows, gravity waves and turbulence: a BLLAST case study
Román Cascón, C. ; Yagüe, C. ; Mahrt, L. ; Sastre, M. ; Steeneveld, G.J. ; Pardyjak, E. ; Boer, A. van de; Hartogensis, O.K. - \ 2015
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15 (2015). - ISSN 1680-7316 - p. 9031 - 9047.
stable boundary-layer - intermittent turbulence - density-current - flux - field - wind - disturbances - simulations - stability - dynamics
The interactions among several stable-boundary-layer (SBL) processes occurring just after the evening transition of 2 July 2011 have been analysed using data from instruments deployed over the area of Lannemezan (France) during the Boundary Layer Late Afternoon and Sunset Turbulence (BLLAST) field campaign. The near-calm situation of the afternoon was followed by the formation of local shallow drainage flows (SDFs) of less than 10 m depth at different locations. The SDF stage ended with the arrival of a stronger wind over a deeper layer more associated with the mountain-plain circulation, which caused mixing and destruction of the SDFs. Several gravity-wave-related oscillations were also observed on different time series. Wavelet analyses and wave parameters were calculated from high resolution and accurate surface pressure data of an array of microbarometers. These waves propagated relatively long distances within the SBL. The effects of these phenomena on turbulent parameters (friction velocity and kinematic heat flux) have been studied through multi-resolution flux decomposition methods performed on high frequency data from sonic anemometers deployed at different heights and locations. With this method, we were able to detect the different time-scales involved in each turbulent parameter and separate them from wave contributions, which becomes very important when choosing averaging-windows for surface flux computations using eddy covariance methods. The extensive instrumentation allowed us to highlight in detail the peculiarities of the surface turbulent parameters in the SBL, where several of the noted processes were interacting and producing important variations in turbulence with height and between sites along the sloping terrain.
Measuring crosswind using scintillometry
Dinther, D. van - \ 2015
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Bert Holtslag, co-promotor(en): Oscar Hartogensis. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789462571815 - 161
scintillometrie - meteorologische waarnemingen - wind - methodologie - meting - scintillometry - meteorological observations - wind - methodology - measurement
This thesis demonstrates that a scintillometer is able to obtain a path-averaged value of the crosswind (i.e., wind component perpendicular to a path). A scintillometer consists of a transmitter and a receiver spaced a few hundred meters to a few kilometres apart. The transmitter emits light with a certain wavelength, which is refracted by scintillations in the atmosphere (eddies with a different temperature and moisture content than their surrounding). The atmosphere is turbulent, thus the receiver of the scintillometer measures the intensity of the fluctuations of the light. Two scintillometer setup next to each other in principle measure the same eddy field except for a time-shift. It is known that this time-shift is linked to the crosswind: the lower the time shift the stronger the crosswind. This thesis shows that experimental calibration in the field to measure the crosswind with a scintillometer is not necessary. Also we developed two new algorithms, which are able to obtain the crosswind from the scintillometer signal. First, the algorithms were validated with measurements made above a flat grassland field. Later, measurements took place over more complex terrains (i) above the city of Helsinki, Finland and (ii) next to a runway at Schiphol airport, the Netherlands. We highlight that even in these complex terrains the scintillometer was able to obtain the crosswind correctly. At Schiphol airport also other applications of scintillometry were investigated: visibility measurements, and wake vortex detection. To use scintillometers as a visibility sensor, more research is necessary. In contrast, the scintillometer proved to be able to detect wake vortices created by airplanes during the night, when the atmospheric turbulence is low.
Vegetation and sedimentation on coastal foredunes
Keijsers, J.G.S. ; Groot, A.V. de; Riksen, M.J.P.M. - \ 2015
Geomorphology 228 (2015). - ISSN 0169-555X - p. 723 - 734.
prince-edward-island - sand transport - ammophila-breviligulata - dutch coast - air-flow - dunes - wind - dynamics - geomorphology - morphology
On a timescale of years to decades, vegetated foredunes may show various modes of morphological development. Vegetation is one of the factors that determine the sedimentation pattern and thus morphology on the foredune. In turn, the vegetation pattern may be controlled by the sedimentation pattern. Although these effects have been quantified for short timescales, there is relatively little information on the interaction between vegetation and sedimentation for timescales of over a year. For the island of Ameland, the Netherlands, elevation measurements and aerial photographs between 2002 and 2012 were used to derive changes in elevation and vegetation patterns on a year-to-year basis. This was done for a range of stable to accreting foredunes. Sedimentation increases from the beach to a maximum halfway up the seaward slope of the foredune, and then decreases again when going landward. This trend is further modified by the vegetation's spatial pattern. On a timescale of years, there is no correlation between the density of vegetation cover and the amount of accretion. However, by accounting for the gradual depletion of the sand load over the foredune, a relationship can be defined between vegetation cover and its trapping efficiency. Foredune vegetation spreads mainly by lateral expansion of existing patches. No strong effect was found of the sedimentation balance on the expansion of vegetation. It is suggested that other growth-limiting factors are of similar importance, masking any possible dependency of vegetation growth on sand accretion.
Het effect van spuitboombeweging en windvector op de drift : Randvariatie metingen 2007-2008
Groot, T.T. ; Stallinga, H. ; Michielsen, J.G.P. ; Velde, P. van; Zande, J.C. van de - \ 2014
Wageningen : Plant Research International, Business Unit Agrosysteemkunde (Rapport / Plant Research International 605) - 58
akkerbouw - drift - spuitdoppen - snelheid - wind - gewasbescherming - spuitapparaten - verstuiven (insectenbestrijding) - spuiten - booms - modellen - arable farming - drift - fan nozzles - velocity - wind - plant protection - sprayers - drift spraying - spraying - booms - models
Spray drift measurements have been performed to quantify the effect of variations in wind angle and wind speed during application and the sprayer boom movement alongside the sprayed edge of the field on spray drift deposition alongside a sprayed potato field (2007-2008). Results of these spray drift measurements are used to develop spray drift models incorporating the effects of wind variability and sprayer boom movement on spray drift deposition. Measured spray drift deposition patterns are analysed based on the wind field and sprayer boom movements measured during the spray drift experiments. Models have been developed incorporating the variability of the windfield and the sprayer boom movement calculating the trajectories of individual packages of spray drift from discrete nozzle positions in time during the spraying of the edge of the field. The addition of sprayer boom movement in the spray drift model over wind field alone improved the calculated results of spray drift deposition variation alongside the field.
From bathrub to bypass: Backfiring bommerangs in Dutch water governance
Buuren, A. van; Warner, J.F. - \ 2014
Environment and Planning C. Government and Policy 32 (2014)6. - ISSN 0263-774X - p. 1000 - 1016.
renewable energy - science - netherlands - narratives - discourse - security - wind
The discursive framing of projects is an oft-used strategy to claim legitimacy and create support for proposed measures. By giving a project an appealing ‘label’, politicians and policy makers try to prevent criticism. However, policy labels are thrown out like ‘boomerangs’ with a view to gaining leverage, resources, and legitimacy. The thrower, however, cannot control how the boomerang comes back. This paper sheds light on the consequences of these ‘backfiring labels’ with the help of two illustrative case studies: a ‘calamity polder’ for controlled flood storage (Ooijpolder) and a ‘bypass’ for the river IJssel near Kampen, respectively. Interestingly, the wider frames from which these labels originate differ and give rise to different dynamics, but with the same outcome: the label reaped the opposite effect. We analyze the way in which this process of strategic ‘labelling’ takes place, its discursive power, its impact on the governance process in question, and how policy makers react upon backfiring consequences.
Measuring and modeling the effect of surface moisture on the spectral reflectance of coastal beach sand
Nolet, C. ; Poortinga, A. ; Roosjen, P.P.J. ; Bartholomeus, H. ; Ruessink, G. - \ 2014
PLoS ONE 9 (2014)11. - ISSN 1932-6203 - 9 p.
aeolian sediment transport - soil-water-content - wind - entrainment - variability - penetration - light - wet
Surface moisture is an important supply limiting factor for aeolian sand transport, which is the primary driver of coastal dune development. As such, it is critical to account for the control of surface moisture on available sand for dune building. Optical remote sensing has the potential to measure surface moisture at a high spatio-temporal resolution. It is based on the principle that wet sand appears darker than dry sand: it is less reflective. The goals of this study are (1) to measure and model reflectance under controlled laboratory conditions as function of wavelength () and surface moisture () over the optical domain of 350–2500 nm, and (2) to explore the implications of our laboratory findings for accurately mapping the distribution of surface moisture under natural conditions. A laboratory spectroscopy experiment was conducted to measure spectral reflectance (1 nm interval) under different surface moisture conditions using beach sand. A non-linear increase of reflectance upon drying was observed over the full range of wavelengths. Two models were developed and tested. The first model is grounded in optics and describes the proportional contribution of scattering and absorption of light by pore water in an unsaturated sand matrix. The second model is grounded in soil physics and links the hydraulic behaviour of pore water in an unsaturated sand matrix to its optical properties. The optical model performed well for volumetric moisture content 24% ( 0.97), but underestimated reflectance for between 24–30% ( 0.92), most notable around the 1940 nm water absorption peak. The soil-physical model performed very well ( 0.99) but is limited to 4% 24%. Results from a field experiment show that a short-wave infrared terrestrial laser scanner ( = 1550 nm) can accurately relate surface moisture to reflectance (standard error 2.6%), demonstrating its potential to derive spatially extensive surface moisture maps of a natural coastal beach.
Spatio-temporal variability in accretion and erosion of coastal foredunes in the Netherlands: regional climate and local topography
Keijsers, J.G.S. ; Poortinga, A. ; Riksen, M.J.P.M. ; Maroulis, J. - \ 2014
PLoS ONE 9 (2014)3. - ISSN 1932-6203
aeolian sediment transport - dune erosion - dutch coast - sand transport - decadal-scale - beach - fetch - dynamics - wind - evolution
Depending on the amount of aeolian sediment input and dune erosion, dune size and morphology change over time. Since coastal foredunes play an important role in the Dutch coastal defence, it is important to have good insight in the main factors that control these changes. In this paper the temporal variations in foredune erosion and accretion were studied in relation to proxies for aeolian transport potential and storminess using yearly elevation measurements from 1965 to 2012 for six sections of the Dutch coast. Longshore differences in the relative impacts of erosion and accretion were examined in relation to local beach width. The results show that temporal variability in foredune accretion and erosion is highest in narrow beach sections. Here, dune erosion alternates with accretion, with variability displaying strong correlations with yearly values of storminess (maximum sea levels). In wider beach sections, dune erosion is less frequent, with lower temporal variability and stronger correlations with time series of transport potential. In erosion dominated years, eroded volumes decrease from narrow to wider beaches. When accretion dominates, dune-volume changes are relatively constant alongshore. Dune erosion is therefore suggested to control spatial variability in dune-volume changes. On a scale of decades, the volume of foredunes tends to increase more on wider beaches. However, where widths exceed 200 to 300 m, this trend is no longer observed.
Effect of geomorphology and nitrogen deposition on rate of vegetation succession in inland drift sands
Sparrius, L.B. ; Kooijman, A.M. ; Riksen, M.J.P.M. ; Sevink, J. - \ 2013
Applied Vegetation Science 16 (2013)3. - ISSN 1402-2001 - p. 379 - 389.
campylopus-introflexus - soil development - organic-matter - coastal dunes - netherlands - dry - erosion - wind - moss
Questions (1) At what rate does succession take place in active and more stabilized drift sands in regions with low and high N deposition in the Netherlands? (2) What is the present composition of pioneer vegetation in active and more stabilized drift san
Aeolian sediment mass fluxes on a sandy soil in Central Patagonia
Sterk, G. ; Parigiani, J. ; Cittadini, E. ; Peters, P. ; Scholberg, J.M.S. ; Peri, P. - \ 2012
Catena 95 (2012). - ISSN 0341-8162 - p. 112 - 123.
saltation transport - wind - environment - windbreaks - models
The climate of Patagonia is semi-arid and characterised by frequent strong winds. Wind erosion is potentially a serious soil degradation process that impacts long-term sustainability of local agricultural systems, but the conditions and the rates of wind erosion in this region have not been studied extensively. The aim of this study was to quantify windblown mass transport on asandysoil in CentralPatagonia. Aeolianmassfluxes were measured in the valley of Sarmiento (Chubut province, Argentina) using two saltiphones and 24 Modified Wilson and Cooke (MWAC) sediment catchers. The latter were installed along three transects: (1) a control on a bare strip of land cleared of its natural vegetation, to measure the maximum wind erosion; (2) a similar transect protected by an artificial windbreak with an optical porosity of 50%; and (3) a transect in a cherry orchard protected with the same type of windbreak. Nine windstorms were recorded throughout the experimental period. Storms with wind speed peaks of 20 m s- 1 caused a total soil loss of 248 Mg ha- 1 in the control strip and heavily depleted the soil of its erodible fraction. The artificial windbreak reduced the soil loss by 51.0% on average, while no erosion was recorded in the cherry orchard. Measured maximum mass transport values were used to fit five sediment transport equations in order to select the best equation to integrate into a GIS-based wind erosion prediction system. The Kawamura (1964) equation showed the highest model efficiency and was considered to be the best sediment transport equation for the Patagonia conditions. It expresses total mass transport as a function of two empirical constants: the threshold friction velocity (u*t), and an erodibility coefficient CKa. It is concluded that wind erosion in CentralPatagonia poses a serious risk of soil degradation once the natural vegetation is removed due to overgrazing or other anthropogenic activities.
Commentary: Terrestrial vs aquatic plants: how general is the drag tolerance-avoidance trade-off?
Anten, N.P.R. ; Sterck, F.J. - \ 2012
New Phytologist 193 (2012). - ISSN 0028-646X - p. 6 - 8.
wind - mechanics - history - leaves
Effect of local weather on butterfly flight behaviour, movement, and colonization: significance for dispersal under climate change
Cormont, A. ; Malinowska, A.H. ; Kostenko, O. ; Radchuk, V. ; Hemerik, L. ; Wallis de Vries, M.F. ; Verboom, J. - \ 2011
Biodiversity and Conservation 20 (2011)3. - ISSN 0960-3115 - p. 483 - 503.
klimaatverandering - weersgegevens - diergedrag - vliegen - lepidoptera - migratie - dispersie - climatic change - weather data - animal behaviour - flight - lepidoptera - migration - dispersion - british butterflies - range margins - habitat - landscapes - metapopulations - temperature - responses - search - models - wind
Recent climate change is recognized as a main cause of shifts in geographical distributions of species. The impacts of climate change may be aggravated by habitat fragmentation, causing regional or large scale extinctions. However, we propose that climate change also may diminish the effects of fragmentation by enhancing flight behaviour and dispersal of ectothermic species like butterflies. We show that under weather conditions associated with anticipated climate change, behavioural components of dispersal of butterflies are enhanced, and colonization frequencies increase. In a field study, we recorded flight behaviour and mobility of four butterfly species: two habitat generalists (Coenonympha pamphilus; Maniola jurtina) and two specialists (Melitaea athalia; Plebejus argus), under different weather conditions. Flying bout duration generally increased with temperature and decreased with cloudiness. Proportion of time spent flying decreased with cloudiness. Net displacement generally increased with temperature. When butterflies fly longer, start flying more readily and fly over longer distances, we expect dispersal propensity to increase. Monitoring data showed that colonization frequencies moreover increased with temperature and radiation and decreased with cloudiness. Increased dispersal propensity at local scale might therefore lower the impact of habitat fragmentation on the distribution at a regional scale. Synergetic effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on population dynamics and species distributions might therefore appear to be more complex than previously assumed
De rozeschildluis Aulacaspis rosae
Pijnakker, J. ; Leman, A. ; Ramakers, P.M.J. - \ 2011
aulacaspis rosae - rozen - cymbidium - verspreiding - wind - dieren - aulacaspis rosae - roses - cymbidium - dispersal - wind - animals
Informatieposter over de rozeschildluis Aulacaspis rosae
Use of high resolution sonar for near-turbine fish observations (DIDSON) - We@Sea 2007-002
Couperus, A.S. ; Winter, H.V. ; Keeken, O.A. van; Kooten, T. van; Tribuhl, S.V. ; Burggraaf, D. - \ 2010
IJmuiden : IMARES (Report / IMARES Wageningen UR C0138/10) - 29
resolutie - turbines - wind - windmolens - effecten - reacties - vis - pelagische visserij - visfauna - resolution - turbines - wind - windmills - effects - responses - fish - pelagic fishery - fish fauna
In this study we investigate small scale distribution of pelagic fish within a windfarm by means of a high resolution sonar (DIDSON, Dual frequency IDentification SONar; Soundmetrics). In addition we assess the bias of small scale variations induced by the effects of wind turbines (monopiles) on distribution of the pelagic fish community in the hydro acoustic surveys carried out on the OWEZ Near Shore Wind farm (NSW).
Impact of Surface Flux Formulations and Geostrophic Forcing on Large-Eddy Simulations of Diurnal Atmospheric Boundary Layer Flow
Kumar, V. ; Svensson, G. ; Holtslag, A.A.M. ; Meneveau, C. ; Parlange, M.B. - \ 2010
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 49 (2010)7. - ISSN 1558-8424 - p. 1496 - 1516.
profile relationships - complex terrain - land-surface - model - wind - temperature - turbulence - cases-99
The impact of surface flux boundary conditions and geostrophic forcing on multiday evolution of flow in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) was assessed using large-eddy simulations (LES). The LES investigations included several combinations of surface boundary conditions (temperature and heat flux) and geostrophic forcing (constant, time varying, time and height varying). The setup was based on ABL characteristics observed during a selected period of the Cooperative Atmosphere–Surface Exchange Study—1999 (CASES-99) campaign. The LES cases driven by a constant geostrophic wind achieved the best agreement with the CASES-99 observations specifically in terms of daytime surface fluxes and daytime and nighttime profiles. However, the nighttime fluxes were significantly overestimated. The LES cases with the surface temperature boundary condition and driven by a time- and height-varying geostrophic forcing showed improved agreement with the observed nighttime fluxes, but there was less agreement with other observations (e.g., daytime profiles). In terms of the surface boundary condition, the LES cases driven by either surface temperature or heat fluxes produced similar trends in terms of the daytime profiles and comparisons with data from soundings. However, in reproducing the fluxes and nighttime profiles, the agreement was better with imposed temperature because of its ability to interact dynamically with the air temperature field. Therefore, it is concluded that surface temperature boundary condition is better suited for simulations of temporally evolving ABL flow as in the diurnal evolution of the ABL
Assessing risk and adaptation options to fires and windstorms in European forestry
Schelhaas, M.J. ; Hengeveld, G. ; Moriondo, M. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Kundzewicz, Z.W. ; Maat, H.W. ter; Bindi, M. - \ 2010
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15 (2010)7. - ISSN 1381-2386 - p. 681 - 701.
climate-change - natural disturbances - elevated co2 - model - growth - impact - wind - netherlands - management - deposition
Risks can generally be described as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Using this framework, we evaluated the historical and future development of risk of fire and wind damage in European forestry at the national level. Fire risk is expected to increase, mainly as a consequence of an increase in fire hazard, defined as the Fire Weather Index in summer. Exposure, defined as forest area, is expected to increase slightly as a consequence of active afforestation and abandonment of marginal agricultural areas. Adaptation options to fire risk should therefore aim to decrease the vulnerability, where a change in tree species from conifers to broadleaves had most effect. Risk for wind damage in forests is expected to increase mainly as a consequence of increase in exposure (total growing stock) and vulnerability (defined by age class and tree species distribution). Projections of future wind climate indicate an increase in hazard (storminess) mainly over Western Europe. Adaptation options should aim to limit the increase in exposure and vulnerability. Only an increase in harvest level can stop the current build-up of growing stock, while at the same time it will lower vulnerability through the reduction of the share of old and vulnerable stands. Changing species from conifers to broadleaves helps to reduce vulnerability as well. Lowering vulnerability by decreasing the rotation length is only effective in combination with a high demand for wood. Due to data limitations, no forecast of future fire area or damaged timber amount by storms was possible