Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    Simulation of the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale
    Bussel, L.G.J. van; Stehfest, E. ; Siebert, S. ; Müller, C. ; Ewert, F. - \ 2015
    Global Ecology and Biogeography 24 (2015)9. - ISSN 1466-822X - p. 1018 - 1029.
    climate-change - winter-wheat - annual crops - photoperiod sensitivity - geographical variation - temperature - responses - adaptation - cultivars - model
    To derive location-specific parameters that reflect the geographic differences among cultivars in vernalization requirements, sensitivity to day length (photoperiod) and temperature, which can be used to simulate the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale. Location: Global. Methods: Based on crop calendar observations and literature describing the large-scale patterns of phenological characteristics of cultivars, we developed algorithms to compute location-specific parameters to represent this large-scale pattern. Vernalization requirements were related to the duration and coldness of winter, sensitivity to day length was assumed to be represented by the minimum and maximum day lengths occurring at a location, and sensitivity to temperature was related to temperature conditions during the vegetative development phase of the crop. Results: Application of the derived location-specific parameters resulted in high agreement between simulated and observed lengths of the cropping period. Agreement was especially high for wheat, with mean absolute errors of less than 3 weeks. In the main maize cropping regions, cropping periods were over- and underestimated by 0.5-1.5 months. We also found that interannual variability in simulated wheat harvest dates was more realistic when accounting for photoperiod effects. Main conclusions: The methodology presented here provides a good basis for modelling the phenological characteristics of cultivars at the global scale. We show that current global patterns of growing season length as described in cropping calendars can be largely reproduced by phenology models if location-specific parameters are derived from temperature and day length indicators. Growing seasons can be modelled more accurately for wheat than for maize, especially in warm regions. Our method for computing parameters for phenology models from temperature and day length offers opportunities to improve the simulation of crop productivity by crop simulation models developed for large spatial areas and for long-term climate impact projections that account for adaptation in the selection of varieties.
    Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities
    Storkey, J. ; Holst, N. ; Bøjer, Q. ; Bigongiali, F. ; Bocci, G. ; Colbach, N. ; Dorner, Z. ; Riemens, M.M. ; Sartorato, I. ; Sønderskov, M. ; Verschwele, A. - \ 2015
    Weed Research 55 (2015)2. - ISSN 0043-1737 - p. 206 - 218.
    agricultural intensification - invertebrate abundance - functional diversity - assembly theory - climate-change - winter-wheat - plant - flora - management - competition
    A functional approach to predicting shifts in weed floras in response to management or environmental change requires the combination of data on weed traits with analytical frameworks that capture the filtering effect of selection pressures on traits. A weed traits database (WTDB) was designed, populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters. These relationships were used to build a generic model, operating at the level of functional traits, to simulate the impact of increasing herbicide and fertiliser use on virtual weeds along gradients of seed weight and maximum height. The model generated ‘fitness contours’ (defined as population growth rates) within this trait space in different scenarios, onto which two sets of weed species, defined as common or declining in the UK, were mapped. The effect of increasing inputs on the weed flora was successfully simulated; 77% of common species were predicted to have stable or increasing populations under high fertiliser and herbicide use, in contrast with only 29% of the species that have declined. Future development of the WTDB will aim to increase the number of species covered, incorporate a wider range of traits and analyse intraspecific variability under contrasting management and environments.
    Performance of spring barley (Hordeum vulgare) varieties under organic and conventional conditions
    Kokare, A. ; Legzdina, L. ; Beinarovica, I. ; Niks, R.E. ; Maliepaard, C.A. ; Lammerts Van Bueren, E. - \ 2014
    Euphytica 197 (2014)2. - ISSN 0014-2336 - p. 279 - 293.
    triticum-aestivum l. - low-input conditions - yield components - winter-wheat - stability - systems - agriculture - adaptation - cultivars - traits
    Organic agriculture needs spring barley varieties that are adapted to organic growing conditions and have good and stable grain yield across years, even under less favourable growing conditions. The aim of this study was to compare how varieties differ in yield and yield stability under conventional and organic management conditions. The results help to decide under which growing conditions selection of genotypes for organic farming can be most effective. Grain yield and yield components of 10 varieties were estimated in field trials for three years at four sites: two conventionally and two organically managed sites. Varieties differed in stability: some varieties had high yield under conventional conditions and relatively high and stable yield under organic conditions. Heritabilities for yield and yield components were lower under organic (especially in the field with low weed control) than under conventional conditions. Heritabilities for yield components were lower than those for yield itself. Selection for yield components, therefore, may be less effective than selection directly for grain yield. Our data showed that generally the top performing cultivars under conventional conditions also performed as the best under organic conditions, but there were also exceptions. Therefore we conclude that selection of genotypes for organic farming may take place under conventional conditions, but that a final testing should be conducted under organic conditions to confirm the suitability of the selected varieties for cultivation on organic farms.
    Broccoli Cultivar Performance under Organic and Conventional Management Systems and Implications for Crop Improvement
    Renaud, E.N.C. ; Lammerts Van Bueren, E. ; Caldas Paulo, M.J. ; Eeuwijk, F.A. van; Juvik, J.A. ; Hutton, M.G. ; Myers, J.R. - \ 2014
    Crop Science 54 (2014)4. - ISSN 0011-183X - p. 1539 - 1554.
    spring wheat - onion varieties - winter-wheat - grain-yield - adaptation - agriculture - selection - environment
    To determine if present commercial broccoli cultivars meet the diverse needs of organic management systems, such as adaptation to low N input, mechanical weed management, and no chemical pesticide use, and to propose the selection environments for crop improvement for organic production, we compared horticultural trait performance of 23 broccoli cultivars (G) under two management (M) systems (organic and conventional) in two regions of the United States (Oregon and Maine), including spring and fall trials. In our trials, location and season had the largest effect on broccoli head weight, with Oregon outperforming Maine, and fall trials outperforming spring plantings. M main effects and G × M interactions were often small, but G × M × E (location and season) were large. Cultivars with both greater head weight and stability under conventional conditions generally had high head weight and stability under organic growing conditions, although there were exceptions in cultivar rank between management systems. Larger genotypic variances and somewhat increased error variances observed in organic compared with conventional management systems led to repeatability for head weight and other horticultural traits that were similar or even higher in organic compared with conventional conditions. The ratio of correlated response (predicting performance under organic conditions when evaluated in conventional conditions) to direct response (predicted performance in organic when evaluated under organic conditions) for all traits was close to but less than 1.0 with the exception of bead uniformity. This would imply that in most cases, direct selection in an organic environment could result in a more rapid genetic gain than indirect selection in a conventional environment
    Estimation of cost-effective methods for dectection of deoxynivalenol in wheat at collector intake
    Fels, H.J. van der; Wagenberg, C.P.A. van - \ 2014
    Food Research International 56 (2014). - ISSN 0963-9969 - p. 85 - 91.
    fusarium mycotoxins - winter-wheat - europe - contamination - climate - update
    This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different methods to determine deoxynivalenol (DON) in wheat, being non-instrumental assays (dipsticks), instrumental chemical analytical methods, predictive models, and their combinations, at collector intake. A Monte Carlo simulation model encompassing the wheat supply chain from farm field to miller intake was developed. Testing of incoming batches was done at collector intake, using one out of six scenarios for detection methods. Instrumental testing of each batch was done at miller intake. Three different thresholds for DON concentration, being 500 µg/kg, 1250 µg/kg and 1750 µg/kg, above which the batch of wheat was not accepted by the miller, were applied. The model calculates total testing costs, costs associated with non-accepted wheat batches, and total amount of non-accepted wheat, using input data for The Netherlands. Results showed that, on average, the predictive DON model, either alone or in combination with either the dipstick method or the instrumental analytical method, or no testing was most cost-effective for the entire supply chain. However, the amount of rejected wheat and related costs could be very high. Using an instrumental method resulted into the lowest amount of rejected wheat, but also into the highest chain costs. The developed model provides insight into the most cost-effective testing strategy, and division of related costs over chain actors. The use of the model could lead to better appointing (the limited) resources for food safety control.
    Evaluation of preformance of Predictive Models for Deoxynivalenol in Wheat
    Fels, H.J. van der - \ 2014
    Risk Analysis 34 (2014)2. - ISSN 0272-4332 - p. 380 - 390.
    fusarium mycotoxins - winter-wheat - validation
    The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of two predictive models for deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat at harvest in the Netherlands, including the use of weather forecast data and external model validation. Data were collected in a different year and from different wheat fields than data used for model development. The two models were run for six preset scenarios, varying in the period for which weather forecast data were used, from zero-day (historical data only) to a 13-day period around wheat flowering. Model predictions using forecast weather data were compared to those using historical data. Furthermore, model predictions using historical weather data were evaluated against observed deoxynivalenol contamination of the wheat fields. Results showed that the use of weather forecast data rather than observed data only slightly influenced model predictions. The percent of correct model predictions, given a threshold of 1,250 µg/kg (legal limit in European Union), was about 95% for the two models. However, only three samples had a deoxynivalenol concentration above this threshold, and the models were not able to predict these samples correctly. It was concluded that two- week weather forecast data can reliable be used in descriptive models for deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat, resulting in more timely model predictions. The two models are able to predict lower deoxynivalenol contamination correctly, but model performance in situations with high deoxynivalenol contamination needs to be further validated. This will need years with conducive environmental conditions for deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat.
    The critical soil P levels for crop yield, soil fertility and environmental safety in different soil types
    Bai, Z.H. ; Li, H.G. ; Yang, X.Y. ; Zhou, B.K. ; Shi, X.J. ; Wang, B.R. ; Li, D.C. ; Shen, J.B. ; Chen, Q. ; Qin, W. ; Oenema, O. ; Zhang, F.S. - \ 2013
    Plant and Soil 372 (2013)1-2. - ISSN 0032-079X - p. 27 - 37.
    silty clay loam - phosphate adsorption - calcareous soils - winter-wheat - food-chain - atr-ftir - olsen p - phosphorus - china - goethite
    Sufficient soil phosphorus (P) is important for achieving optimal crop production, but excessive soil P levels may create a risk of P losses and associated eutrophication of surface waters. The aim of this study was to determine critical soil P levels for achieving optimal crop yields and minimal P losses in common soil types and dominant cropping systems in China. Four long-term experiment sites were selected in China. The critical level of soil Olsen-P for crop yield was determined using the linear-plateau model. The relationships between the soil total P, Olsen-P and CaCl2-P were evaluated using two-segment linear model to determine the soil P fertility rate and leaching change-point. The critical levels of soil Olsen-P for optimal crop yield ranged from 10.9 mg kg(-1) to 21.4 mg kg(-1), above which crop yield response less to the increasing of soil Olsen-P. The P leaching change-points of Olsen-P ranged from 39.9 mg kg(-1) to 90.2 mg kg(-1), above which soil CaCl2-P greatly increasing with increasing soil Olsen-P. Similar change-point was found between soil total P and Olsen-P. Overall, the change-point ranged from 4.6 mg kg(-1) to 71.8 mg kg(-1) among all the four sites. These change-points were highly affected by crop specie, soil type, pH and soil organic matter content. The three response curves could be used to access the soil Olsen-P status for crop yield, soil P fertility rate and soil P leaching risk for a sustainable soil P management in field.
    Long-Term Monitoring of Rainfed Wheat Yield and Soil Water at the Loess Plateau Reveals Low Water Use Efficiency
    Qin, W. ; Chi, B.L. ; Oenema, O. - \ 2013
    PLoS ONE 8 (2013)11. - ISSN 1932-6203
    fao crop model - triticum-aestivum l. - north china plain - winter-wheat - aquacrop model - semiarid environment - irrigated maize - deficit irrigation - climate-change - performance
    Increasing crop yield and water use efficiency (WUE) in dryland farming requires a quantitative understanding of relationships between crop yield and the water balance over many years. Here, we report on a long-term dryland monitoring site at the Loess Plateau, Shanxi, China, where winter wheat was grown for 30 consecutive years and soil water content (0-200 cm) was measured every 10 days. The monitoring data were used to calibrate the AquaCrop model and then to analyse the components of the water balance. There was a strong positive relationship between total available water and mean cereal yield. However, only one-third of the available water was actually used by the winter wheat for crop transpiration. The remaining two-thirds were lost by soil evaporation, of which 40 and 60% was lost during the growing and fallow seasons, respectively. Wheat yields ranged from 0.6 to 3.9 ton/ha and WUE from 0.3 to 0.9 kg/m(3). Results of model experiments suggest that minimizing soil evaporation via straw mulch or plastic film covers could potentially double wheat yields and WUE. We conclude that the relatively low wheat yields and low WUE were mainly related to (i) limited rainfall, (ii) low soil water storage during fallow season due to large soil evaporation, and (iii) poor synchronisation of the wheat growing season to the rain season. The model experiments suggest significant potential for increased yields and WUE.
    Impact of Climate Change Effects on Contamination of Cereal Grains with Deoxynivalenol
    Fels-Klerx, H.J. van der; Asselt, E.D. van; Madsen, M.S. ; Olesen, J.E. - \ 2013
    PLoS ONE 8 (2013)9. - ISSN 1932-6203
    winter-wheat - land-use - europe - productivity - scenarios - model - agriculture - temperature - nivalenol - values
    Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling was applied, considering both direct effects of changing climate on toxin contamination and indirect effects via shifts in crop phenology. Climate change projections for the IPCC A1B emission scenario were used for the scenario period 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. Climatic data from two different global and regional climate model combinations were used. A weather generator was applied for downscaling climate data to local conditions. Crop phenology models and prediction models for DON contamination used, each for winter wheat and grain maize. Results showed that flowering and full maturity of both wheat and maize will advance with future climate. Flowering advanced on average 5 and 11 days for wheat, and 7 and 14 days for maize (two climate model combinations). Full maturity was on average 10 and 17 days earlier for wheat, and 19 and 36 days earlier for maize. On the country level, contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol decreased slightly, but not significantly. Variability between regions was large, and individual regions showed a significant increase in deoxynivalenol concentrations. For maize, an overall decrease in deoxynivalenol contamination was projected, which was significant for one climate model combination, but not significant for the other one. In general, results disagree with previous reported expectations of increased feed and food safety hazards under climate change. This study illustrated the relevance of using quantitative models to estimate the impacts of climate change effects on food safety, and of considering both direct and indirect effects when assessing climate change impacts on crops and related food safety hazards.
    Cross-validation of predictive models for deoxynivalenol in wheat at harvest
    Camardo Leggieri, M. ; Fels-Klerx, H.J. van der; Battilani, P. - \ 2013
    World Mycotoxin Journal 6 (2013)4. - ISSN 1875-0710 - p. 389 - 397.
    fusarium head blight - small-grain cereals - winter-wheat - weather data - ear blight - mycotoxins - management - variables
    To date, several models that predict deoxynivalenol (DON) in wheat at harvest are available. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of two of such models, including a mechanistic model developed in Italy and an empirical model developed in the Netherlands. To this end, field data collected in the periods 2002-2004 and 2009-2011 in Italy, and in the period 2001-2010 in the Netherlands were used. These historical data covered farm observations at 1,306 wheat fields, of which 155 in the Netherlands and 1,151 in Italy. A subset of 10% of the Italian data, derived by random sampling from the total Italian dataset, was used to validate both the Italian and the Dutch model. Additionally, the Italian mechanistic model was validated using the total Dutch dataset. Before validating the Dutch model, it was recalibrated using the remaining 90% of the Italian data. Results showed that predictions of both modelling approaches (mechanistic and empirical) for independent wheat fields were in accordance. Applying a threshold for DON concentration of 1,250 ?g/kg, the mechanistic DON model predicted 90% of the samples correctly. Results for cross-validation of the mechanistic DON model and the recalibrated empirical DON model showed that 93% of the samples were correctly predicted. In general, no more than 6% of underestimates were observed.
    An analysis of developments and challenges in nutrient management in China
    Ma, L. ; Zhang, W.F. ; Ma, W.Q. ; Velthof, G.L. ; Oenema, O. ; Zhang, F.S. - \ 2013
    Journal of Environmental Quality 42 (2013)4. - ISSN 0047-2425 - p. 951 - 961.
    reducing environmental risk - crop system management - use-efficiency - food-production - chlorophyll meter - winter-wheat - nitrogen-use - soil - agriculture - phosphorus
    During the past 50 years, China has successfully realized food self-sufficiency for its rapidly growing population. Currently, it feeds 22% of the global population with 9% of the global area of arable land. However, these achievements were made at high external resource use and environmental costs. The challenge facing China is to further increase food production while drastically decreasing the environmental costs of food production. Here we review the major developments in nutrient management in China over the last 50 years. We briefly analyze the current organizational structure of the “advisory system” in agriculture, the developments in nutrient management for crop production, and the developments in nutrient management in animal production. We then discuss the nutrient management challenges for the next decades, considering nutrient management in the whole chain of crop production–animal production–food processing–food consumption by households. We argue that more coherent national policies and institutional structures are required for research extension education to be able to address the immense challenges ahead. Key actions include nutrient management in the whole food chain concomitant with a shift in objectives from food security only to food security, resource use efficiency, and environmental sustainability; improved animal waste management based on coupled animal production and crop production systems; and much greater emphasis on technology transfer from science to practice through education, training, demonstration, and extension services.
    Improving ecophysiological simulation models to predict the impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on crop productivity
    Yin, X. - \ 2013
    Annals of Botany 112 (2013)3. - ISSN 0305-7364 - p. 465 - 475.
    open-top chambers - leaf-area index - carbon-dioxide enrichment - climate-change impacts - open-air conditions - c-3 plants - photosynthetic capacity - stomatal conductance - winter-wheat - maintenance respiration
    Background - Process-based ecophysiological crop models are pivotal in assessing responses of crop productivity and designing strategies of adaptation to climate change. Most existing crop models generally over-estimate the effect of elevated atmospheric [CO2], despite decades of experimental research on crop growth response to [CO2]. Analysis - A review of the literature indicates that the quantitative relationships for a number of traits, once expressed as a function of internal plant nitrogen status, are altered little by the elevated [CO2]. A model incorporating these nitrogen-based functional relationships and mechanisms simulated photosynthetic acclimation to elevated [CO2], thereby reducing the chance of over-estimating crop response to [CO2]. Robust crop models to have small parameterization requirements and yet generate phenotypic plasticity under changing environmental conditions need to capture the carbon–nitrogen interactions during crop growth. Conclusions - The performance of the improved models depends little on the type of the experimental facilities used to obtain data for parameterization, and allows accurate projections of the impact of elevated [CO2] and other climatic variables on crop productivity.
    Proactive systems for early warning of potential impacts of natural disasters on food safety: Climate-change-induced extreme events as case in point
    Marvin, H.J.P. ; Kleter, G.A. ; Fels-Klerx, H.J. van der; Noordam, M.Y. ; Franz, E. ; Willems, D.J.M. ; Boxall, A. - \ 2013
    Food Control 34 (2013)2. - ISSN 0956-7135 - p. 444 - 456.
    harmful algal blooms - deoxynivalenol content - new-orleans - north-sea - hurricanes katrina - winter-wheat - contamination - model - europe - maize
    According to a recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the frequency of certain climate extremes is expected to increase under the influence of climate change. This review presents potential direct and indirect effects of such extremes as well as other severe weather and hydro-meteorological events on the occurrence of hazards in food produced by various agricultural systems. In addition, we review the applicability of early warning systems to warn of the development of food safety hazards induced by natural disasters, with climate-change-induced extreme events as case in point. Monitoring systems focused on food safety hazards may miss - or pick up with delay - the occurrence of new hazards or known hazards in food products in which they previously did not occur. We conclude that, by better use of the available information (being plant-, animal-, human disease-focused systems monitoring weather and other environmental conditions and/or systems collecting publications on the internet), the negative impact of severe natural events on food safety can be minimized
    Association mapping and meta-analysis: two complementary approaches for the detection of reliable Septoria tritici blotch quantitative resistance in bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)
    Goudemand, E. ; Laurent, V. ; Duchalais, L. ; Tabib Ghaffary, M.S. ; Kema, G.H.J. ; Lonnet, P. ; Margalé, E. ; Robert, O. - \ 2013
    Molecular Breeding 32 (2013)3. - ISSN 1380-3743 - p. 563 - 584.
    genome-wide association - mycosphaerella-graminicola - winter-wheat - trait loci - dwarfing genes - plant height - population-structure - azole fungicides - qtl metaanalysis - hexaploid wheat
    Septoria tritici blotch (STB), caused by the ascomycete Mycosphaerella graminicola, is one of the most ubiquitous and important diseases of bread wheat worldwide. The aim of this study was to identify markers linked to loci conferring resistance to STB from seven biparental populations. Linkage analysis, meta-analysis and association mapping were combined to identify robust quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for resistance. Linkage analysis led to the detection of 115 QTLs for resistance to STB and 66 QTLs linked to plant height and/or earliness. Meta-analysis clustered these 115 QTLs into 27 Meta-QTLs (MQTLs) of pathogen resistance, of which 14 were found to be linked to plant height and/or earliness. Both the relationship between dwarfing and susceptibility to STB and the significant negative correlation between earliness and STB symptoms were confirmed. Eleven loci were linked to STB resistance by association mapping using a general linear model and/or a mixed linear model, of which eight co-located with STB MQTLs and two co-located with individual QTLs. Associated markers located in MQTL regions enhanced the relevance of the results and validated the potential of an association mapping approach. With several biparental populations, meta-analysis is the most relevant form of genetic analysis study, but association mapping can be used as a validation method. Regions linked to resistance in both methods should be relevant for use in breeding programs for improving resistance to STB in wheat varieties. The main interest in comparing both approaches is to detect robust loci that will be functional in many genetic backgrounds rather than just in one or a few specific backgrounds
    Mycotoxin contamination of cereal grain commidities in relation to climate in North West Europe
    Fels-Klerx, H.J. van der; Klemsdal, S.S. ; Hietaniemi, V. ; lindblad, M. ; Ioannou-Kakouri, E. ; Asselt, E.D. van - \ 2012
    Food Additives & Contaminants. Pt. A, Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure & Risk Assessment 29 (2012)10. - ISSN 1944-0049 - p. 1581 - 1592.
    fusarium toxins - deoxynivalenol content - natural occurrence - winter-wheat - ochratoxin-a - head blight - ht-2 toxin - t-2 toxin - uk - trichothecenes
    This study aimed to investigate mycotoxin contamination of cereal grain commodities for feed and food production in North Western Europe during the last two decades, including trends over time and co-occurrence between toxins, and to assess possible effects of climate on the presence of mycotoxins. For these aims, analytical results related to mycotoxin contamination of cereal grain commodities, collected in the course of national monitoring programmes in Finland, Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands during a 20-year period, were gathered. Historical observational weather data, including daily relative humidity, rainfall and temperature, were obtained from each of these four countries. In total 6382 records, referring to individual sample results for mycotoxin concentrations (one or more toxins) in cereal grains were available. Most records referred to wheat, barley, maize and oats. The most frequently analysed mycotoxins were deoxynivalenol, 3-acetyl-deoxynivalenol, nivalenol, T-2 toxin, HT-2 toxin and zearalenone. Deoxynivalenol had the highest overall incidence of 46%, and was mainly found in wheat, maize and oats. Mycotoxins that showed co-occurrence were: deoxynivalenol and 3-acetyl-deoxynivalenol in oats; deoxynivalenol and zearalenone in maize and wheat; and T-2 toxin and HT-2 toxin in oats. The presence of both deoxynivalenol and zearalenone in wheat increased with higher temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall during cultivation, but the presence of nivalenol was negatively associated with most of these climatic factors. The same holds for both nivalenol and deoxynivalenol in oats. This implies that climatic conditions that are conducive for one toxin may have a decreasing effect on the other. The presence of HT-2 toxin in oats showed a slight decreasing trends over time, but significant trends for other toxins showed an increasing presence during the last two decades. It is therefore useful to continue monitoring of mycotoxins. Obtained results can be used for development of predictive models for presence of mycotoxins in cereal grains.
    Climate change impacts on natural toxins in food production systems, exemplified by deoxynivalenol in wheat and diarrhetic shellfish toxins
    Fels-Klerx, H.J. van der; Olesen, J.E. ; Naustvoll, L.J. ; Friocourt, Y. ; Mengelers, M.J.B. ; Christensen, J.H. - \ 2012
    Food Additives & Contaminants. Pt. A, Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure & Risk Assessment 29 (2012)10. - ISSN 1944-0049 - p. 1647 - 1659.
    harmful algal blooms - winter-wheat - north-sea - human health - model - phytoplankton - mycotoxins - europe - contamination - prediction
    Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal grains cultivated in the terrestrial area of north west Europe, and on the frequency of harmful algal blooms and contamination of shellfish with marine biotoxins in the North Sea coastal zone. The study focused on contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol, and on abundance of Dinophysis spp. and the possible relationship with diarrhetic shellfish toxins. The study used currently available data and models. Global and regional climate models were combined with models of crop phenology, mycotoxin prediction models, hydrodynamic models and ecological models, with the output of one model being used as input for the other. In addition, statistical data analyses using existing national datasets from the study area were performed to obtain information on the relationships between Dinophysis spp. cell counts and contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish toxins as well as on frequency of cereal cropping. In this paper, a summary of the study is presented, and overall conclusions and recommendations are given. Climate change projections for the years 2031–2050 were used as the starting point of the analyses relative to a preceding 20-year baseline period from which the climate change signal was calculated. Results showed that, in general, climate change effects lead to advanced flowering and harvest of wheat, and increased risk of contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol. Blooms of dinoflagellates were estimated to occur more often. If the group of Dinophysis spp. behaves similarly to other flagellates in the future then frequency of harmful algal blooms of Dinophysis spp. may also increase, but consequences for contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish toxins are uncertain. Climate change will also have indirect effects on toxin contamination, which may be equally important. For example, the frequency of cropping of wheat and maize in north Europe was projected to increase under climate change, which will also increase the risk of contamination of the grains with deoxynivalenol. Risk managers are encouraged to consider the entire range of the predictions of climate change effects on food safety hazards, rather than median or average values only. Furthermore, it is recommended to closely monitor levels of mycotoxins and marine biotoxins in the future, in particular related to risky situations associated with favourable climatic conditions for toxin producing organisms. In particular, it is important to pay attention to the continuity of collecting the right data, and the availability and accessibility of databases. On a European level, it is important to stress the need for harmonisation of terminology and data collection.
    Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change
    Olesen, J.E. ; Borgesen, C.D. ; Elsgaard, L. ; Palosuo, T. ; Rötter, R.P. ; Skjelväg, A.O. ; Peltonen-Sainio, P. ; Bórjesson, T. ; Trnka, M. ; Ewert, F. ; Siebert, S. ; Brisson, N. ; Eitzinger, J. ; Asselt, E.D. van; Oberforster, M. ; Fels-Klerx, H.J. van der - \ 2012
    Food Additives & Contaminants. Pt. A, Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure & Risk Assessment 29 (2012)10. - ISSN 1944-0049 - p. 1527 - 1542.
    winter-wheat - phenological development - temperate cereals - yield response - sensitivity - model - productivity - barley - crops - variability
    The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985–2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site–year–variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1–3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1–3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied.
    Modeling Deoxynivalenol Contamination of Wheat in Northwestern Europe for Climate Change Assessments
    Fels-Klerx, H.J. van der; Goedhart, P.W. ; Elen, O. ; Börjesson, T. ; Hietaniemi, V. ; Booij, C.J.H. - \ 2012
    Journal of Food Protection 75 (2012)6. - ISSN 0362-028X - p. 1099 - 1106.
    fusarium-head-blight - small-grain cereals - winter-wheat - mycotoxins - prediction - management - maize - scab
    Climate change will affect mycotoxin contamination of feed and food. Mathematical models for predicting mycotoxin concentrations in cereal grains are useful for estimating the impact of climate change on these toxins. The objective of the current study was to construct a descriptive model to estimate climate change impacts on deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination of mature wheat grown in northwestern Europe. Observational data from 717 wheat fields in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and The Netherlands were analyzed, including the DON concentrations in mature wheat, agronomical practices, and local weather. Multiple regression analyses were conducted, and the best set of explanatory variables, mainly including weather factors, was selected. The final model included the following variables: flowering date, length of time between flowering and harvest, wheat resistance to Fusarium infection, and several climatic variables related to relative humidity, temperature, and rainfall during critical stages of wheat cultivation. The model accounted for 50 % of the variance, which was sufficient to make this model useful for estimating the trends of climate change on DON contamination of wheat in northwestern Europe. Application of the model in possible climate change scenarios is illustrated.
    Genetic dissection of drought tolerance and recovery potential by quantitative trait locus mapping of a diploid potato population
    Anithakumari, A.M. ; Nataraja, K.N. ; Visser, R.G.F. ; Linden, C.G. van der - \ 2012
    Molecular Breeding 30 (2012)3. - ISSN 1380-3743 - p. 1413 - 1429.
    carbon-isotope discrimination - water-use efficiency - chlorophyll fluorescence - solanum-tuberosum - transpiration efficiency - soil-water - arabidopsis-thaliana - arid conditions - winter-wheat - leaf growth
    Potato is the third most important staple food crop in terms of consumption, yet it is relatively susceptible to yield loss because of drought. As a first step towards improving drought tolerance in this crop, we set out to identify the genetic basis for drought tolerance in a diploid potato mapping population. Experiments were carried out under greenhouse conditions in two successive years by recording four physiological, seven growth and three yield parameters under stress and recovery treatments. Genotypes showed significant variation for drought and recovery responses. The traits measured had low to moderately high heritabilities (ranging from 22 to 74 %). A total of 47 quantitative trait loci (QTL) were identified, of which 28 were drought-specific, 17 under recovery treatment and two under well-watered conditions. The majority of these growth and yield QTL co-localized with a QTL for maturity on chromosome 5. Four QTL for d13C, three for chlorophyll content and one for chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) were found to co-localize with yield and other growth trait QTL identified on other chromosomes. Several multi-year and multi-treatment QTL were detected and QTL 9 environment interaction was found for d13C. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive QTL study on water deficit and recovery potential in potato.
    Climate change increases deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat in north-western Europe
    Fels-Klerx, H.J. van der; Olesen, J.E. ; Madsen, M.S. ; Goedhart, P.W. - \ 2012
    Food Additives & Contaminants. Pt. A, Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure & Risk Assessment 29 (2012)10. - ISSN 1944-0049 - p. 1593 - 1604.
    small-grain cereals - winter-wheat - head blight - land-use - model - productivity - mycotoxins - crop - agriculture - temperature
    Climate change will affect the development of cereal crops and the occurrence of mycotoxins in these crops, but so far little research has been done on quantifying the expected effects. The aim of this study was to assess climate change impacts on the occurrence of deoxynivalenol in wheat grown in north-western Europe by 2040, considering the combined effects of shifts in wheat phenology and climate. The study used climate model data for the future period of 2031–2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975–1994. A weather generator was used for generating synthetic series of daily weather data for both the baseline and the future periods. Available models for wheat phenology and prediction of deoxynivalenol concentrations in north-western Europe were used. Both models were run for winter wheat and spring wheat, separately. The results showed that both flowering and full maturation of wheat will be earlier in the season because of climate change effects, about 1 to 2 weeks. Deoxynivalenol contamination was found to increase in most of the study region, with an increase of the original concentrations by up to 3 times. The study results may inform governmental and industrial risk managers to underpin decision-making and planning processes in north-western Europe. On the local level, deoxynivalenol contamination should be closely monitored to pick out wheat batches with excess levels at the right time. Using predictive models on a more local scale could be helpful to assist other monitoring measures to safeguard food safety in the wheat supply chain.
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