|An integrated nitrogen budget for Europe
Leip, A. ; Aardenne, J.A. van; Vries, W. de; Gall, A.C. Le; Geupel, M. ; Spranger, T. - \ 2010
In: Proceedings of the 5th International Nitrogen Conference, New Dehli, India, 3 - 7 December, 2010. - New Delhi, India : - p. 387 - 387.
Inverse modeling of European CH4 emissions 2001–2006
Bergamaschi, P. ; Krol, M.C. ; Meirink, J.F. ; Dentener, F. ; Segers, A. ; Aardenne, J.A. van; Monni, S. ; Vermeulen, A.T. - \ 2010
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 115 (2010). - ISSN 2169-897X - 18 p.
atmospheric methane - greenhouse gases - transport - history - tm5 - co2 - oh
European CH4 emissions are estimated for the period 2001–2006 using a fourdimensional variational (4DVAR) inverse modeling system, based on the atmospheric zoom model TM5. Continuous observations are used from various European monitoring stations, complemented by European and global flask samples from the NOAA/ESRL network. The available observations mainly provide information on the emissions from northwest Europe (NWE), including the UK, Ireland, the BENELUX countries, France and Germany. The inverse modeling estimates for the total anthropogenic emissions from NWE are 21% higher compared to the EDGARv4.0 emission inventory and 40% higher than values reported to U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. Assuming overall uncertainties on the order of 30% for both bottom-up and top-down estimates, all three estimates can be still considered to be consistent with each other. However, the uncertainties in the uncertainty estimates prevent us from verifying (or falsifying) the bottom-up inventories in a strict sense. Sensitivity studies show some dependence of the derived spatial emission patterns on the set of atmospheric monitoring stations used, but the total emissions for the NWE countries appear to be relatively robust. While the standard inversions include a priori information on the spatial and temporal emission patterns from bottom-up inventories, a further sensitivity inversion without this a priori information results in very similar NWE country totals, demonstrating that the available observations provide significant constraints on the emissions from the NWE countries independent from bottom-up inventories.
Influence of future air pollution mitigation strategies on total aerosol radiative forcing
Kloster, S. ; Dentener, F. ; Feichter, J. ; Raes, F. ; Aardenne, J.A. van; Roeckner, E. ; Lohmann, U. ; Stier, P. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2008
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 8 (2008)21. - ISSN 1680-7316 - p. 6405 - 6437.
climate model echam5-ham - global sulfate distribution - cloud microphysics - greenhouse-gas - sulfur cycle - emissions - impact - simulation - albedo - flux
We apply different aerosol and aerosol precursor emission scenarios reflecting possible future control strategies for air pollution in the ECHAM5-HAM model, and simulate the resulting effect on the Earth's radiation budget. We use two opposing future mitigation strategies for the year 2030: one in which emission reduction legislation decided in countries throughout the world are effectively implemented (current legislation; CLE 2030) and one in which all technical options for emission reductions are being implemented independent of their cost (maximum feasible reduction; MFR 2030). We consider the direct, semi-direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols. The total anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere radiation between 2000 and pre-industrial times amounts to -2.00 W/m2. In the future this negative global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing will only slightly change (+0.02 W/m2) under the "current legislation" scenario. Regionally, the effects are much larger: e.g. over Eastern Europe radiative forcing would increase by +1.50 W/m2 because of successful aerosol reduction policies, whereas over South Asia it would decrease by -1.10 W/m2 because of further growth of emissions. A "maximum feasible reduction" of aerosols and their precursors would lead to an increase of the global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing by +1.13 W/m2. Hence, in the latter case, the present day negative anthropogenic aerosol forcing could be more than halved by 2030 because of aerosol reduction policies and climate change thereafter will be to a larger extent be controlled by greenhouse gas emissions. We combined these two opposing future mitigation strategies for a number of experiments focusing on different sectors and regions. In addition, we performed sensitivity studies to estimate the importance of future changes in oxidant concentrations and the importance of the aerosol microphysical coupling within the range of expected future changes. For changes in oxidant concentrations caused by future air pollution mitigation, we do not find a significant effect for the global annual mean radiative aerosol forcing. In the extreme case of only abating SO2 or carbonaceous emissions to a maximum feasible extent, we find deviations from additivity for the radiative forcing over anthropogenic source regions up to 10% compared to an experiment abating both at the same time.
The atmospheric chemistry general circultation model ECHAM5/MESSy1: Consistent simulation of ozone from the surface to the mesosphere
Jöckel, P. ; Tost, H. ; Pozzer, A. ; Brülh, Ch. ; Buchholz, J. ; Ganzeveld, L.N. ; Hoor, P. ; Kerkweg, A. ; Lawrence, M.G. ; Sander, R. ; Steil, B. ; Stiller, G. ; Tanarhte, M. ; Taraborrelli, D. ; Aardenne, J.A. van; Lelieveld, J. - \ 2006
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 6 (2006)12. - ISSN 1680-7316 - p. 5067 - 5104.
quasi-biennial oscillation - submodel system messy - doppler-spread parameterization - halogen occultation experiment - wave momentum deposition - limb emission-spectra - tropospheric ozone - technical note - middle atmosphere - climate model
The new Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) describes atmospheric chemistry and meteorological processes in a modular framework, following strict coding standards. It has been coupled to the ECHAM5 general circulation model, which has been slightly modified for this purpose. A 90-layer model setup up to 0.01 hPa was used at spectral T42 resolution to simulate the lower and middle atmosphere. With the high vertical resolution the model simulates the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The model meteorology has been tested to check the influence of the changes to ECHAM5 and the radiation interactions with the new representation of atmospheric composition. In the simulations presented here a Newtonian relaxation technique was applied in the tropospheric part of the domain to weakly nudge the model towards the analysed meteorology during the period 1998–2005. This allows an efficient and direct evaluation with satellite and in-situ data. It is shown that the tropospheric wave forcing of the stratosphere in the model suffices to reproduce major stratospheric warming events leading e.g. to the vortex split over Antarctica in 2002. Characteristic features such as dehydration and denitrification caused by the sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud particles and ozone depletion during winter and spring are simulated well, although ozone loss in the lower polar stratosphere is slightly underestimated. The model realistically simulates stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes as indicated by comparisons with satellite and in situ measurements. The evaluation of tropospheric chemistry presented here focuses on the distributions of ozone, hydroxyl radicals, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen compounds. In spite of minor shortcomings, mostly related to the relatively coarse T42 resolution and the neglect of inter-annual changes in biomass burning emissions, the main characteristics of the trace gas distributions are generally reproduced well. The MESSy submodels and the ECHAM5/MESSy1 model output are available through the internet on request
Technical Note: Anthropogenic and natural offline emissions and the online EMissions and dry DEPosition submodel EMDEP of the Modular Earth Submodel system (MESSy)
Ganzeveld, L.N. ; Aardenne, J.A. van; Butler, T.M. ; Lawrence, M.G. ; Metzger, S.M. ; Stier, P. ; Zimmermann, P. ; Lelieveld, J. - \ 2006
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 6 (2006). - ISSN 1680-7367 - p. 5457 - 5483.
We present the online calculated Earth's surface trace gas and aerosol emissions and dry deposition in the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) submodel EMDEP as well as the currently applied anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. These inventories, being read-in by the MESSy submodel OFFLEM, include the industrial, fossil fuel, agricultural and biomass burning emissions considering emission height profiles as a function of the source category based on the EDGAR v3.2 fast track 2000 inventory. Terrestrial and marine emissions of a selection of trace gases and aerosols are calculated online in EMDEP using climate model parameters such as wind speed, temperature and land cover and land use parameters. The online dry deposition calculation includes gases and aerosols, where the default selection for the trace gases for the dry deposition scheme can be easily extended using a commonly applied method based on trace gas solubility and reactivity. In general, the simulated global annual emissions agree with previously reported inventories, although differences exist, partly dependent on the applied model resolution. A high sensitivity of the simulated dry deposition to the applied emission height profiles stresses the importance of a realistic and consistent representation of the spatial and temporal variability in surface exchange processes in Earth system models.
|Recent trends in global greenhouse gas emissions: regional trends and spatial distribution of key sources
Olivier, J.G.J. ; Aardenne, J.A. van; Dentener, F. ; Ganzeveld, L.N. ; Peters, J.A.H.W. - \ 2005
In: Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases (NCGG-4) Rotterdam : Millpress - ISBN 9789059660434 - p. 325 - 330.
Recent trends in global greenhouse gas emissions: regional trends 1970-2000 and spatial distribution of key sources in 2000
Olivier, J.G.J. ; Aardenne, J.A. van; Dentener, F. ; Pagliari, V. ; Ganzeveld, L.N. ; Peters, J.A.H.W. - \ 2005
Environmental Sciences 2 (2005)2-3. - ISSN 1569-3430 - p. 81 - 99.
In 2004, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) and the Max Plank Institute for Chemistry (MPIC) started a project to create fast (bi-)annual updates of the EDGAR global emission inventory system, based on the more detailed previous version 3.2. Here, the key features of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research, EDGAR 3 are first summarized, and then the compilation of recent global trends having a major influence on variables and the new 'Fast Track' approach to estimate recent emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in 2000 at a country-specific level are described. Also provided is an overview of the approaches and data sources used for this EDGAR 3.2 Fast Track 2000 dataset, the different source sectors and the accuracies achieved, with a focus on anthropogenic sources of methane and nitrous oxide. Results of global emission trends for four air pollutants are also briefly addressed. Results for various sources and greenhouse gases at regional and national scales and on 11 degree grid have been made available on the EDGAR website.
|Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment models: A review of recent approaches
Gabbert, S.G.M. ; Kroeze, C. ; Hordijk, L. ; Aardenne, J.A. van - \ 2002
risicoschatting - milieutoets - onzekerheid - verzuring - modellen - risk assessment - environmental assessment - uncertainty - acidification - models
The paper reviews the current state of research with regard to uncertainty analysis in Integrated Assessment Models. The critique concerning previous treatment of uncertainty is summarised and the three most important frameworks that have been developed for a more systematic uncertainty analysis are outlined. A comparison of these frameworks with regard to their applicability to Integrated Assessment Models for acidification is the focus of the paper
Uncertainties in emission inventories
Aardenne, J.A. van - \ 2002
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): L. Hordijk; M.P.J. Pulles; C. Kroeze. - S.l. : S.n. - ISBN 9789058086419 - 143
emissie - luchtverontreinigende stoffen - luchtverontreiniging - stikstofoxiden - milieueffect - inventarisaties - emission - air pollutants - air pollution - nitrogen oxides - environmental impact - inventories
Emission inventories provide information about the amount of a pollutant that is emitted to the atmosphere as a result of a specific anthropogenic or natural process at a given time or place. Emission inventories can be used for either policy or scientific purposes. For policy purposes, emission inventories can be used to monitor the progress of environmental policy or to check compliance with conventions and protocols. For scientific purposes, emission inventories can be used as input into atmospheric dispersion models that are aimed at understanding the chemical and physical processes and the behaviour of air pollutants in the atmosphere. A strict separation between policy and scientific oriented emission inventories is not always possible. The usefulness of emission inventories for policy or science depends on the accuracy and the reliability of the inventories. There is uncertainty about an emission inventory when the accuracy and reliability of the emission estimates are not known. Proper use of emissions inventories requires an assessment of the uncertainties, including identification, qualification and quantification of the uncertainty. Although different methods for the assessment of uncertainty in emission inventories have been proposed, a systematic approach for identification, qualification and quantification of uncertainty does not exist. The objective of this thesis is to develop such a systematic approach for large-scale inventories. In order to meet this objective three research questions have been formulated:
(i) What are the potential sources of uncertainty in emission inventories
(ii) Which methods can be followed for the assessment of uncertainty
(111)To what extent can uncertainty in emission inventories be identified, qualified or quantified.
The methodology of emission inventory compilation typical for large-scale emission inventories has been illustrated by two emission inventories. In chapter 2, time series of past worldwide emission of anthropogenic trace gases for the period 1890 - 1990 are described. Chapter 3 presents projections for NOx emissions in Asia for the period 1990 -2020. The construction of these emission inventories was hampered by the lack of experimental data on the different sources of emission. As a result, the emissions were calculated on another scale than on which the emission processes occur in reality. The activity data and emission factors were based on extrapolation of existing information. Due to these aggregations and extrapolations, the emission inventories are inaccurate representations of the actual emissions.
Chapter 4 describes the theoretical basis for our definitions of uncertainties, followed by a categorisation of uncertainties in emission inventories. It is argued that two types of uncertainty in emission inventories exist. Uncertainty about accuracy is the lack of knowledge about the sources and size of the inaccuracy. Uncertainty about reliability is the lack of knowledge about the degree to which the emission inventory is meeting user-specified quality criteria. These user-specified criteria depend on the purpose of the emission inventory. For scientific purposes the reliability is defined by the accuracy of the inventory. For policy purposes, quality criteria can be related to transparency, application of agreed upon methodologies or sometimes also to the assessment of accuracy. Uncertainty about reliability exists when either the accuracy of the emission inventory is not known or when the documentation of the inventory is inadequate and incomplete. Uncertainty about accuracy exists when the different sources of inaccuracy or the extent to which the inventory is inaccurate is not known. A categorisation of uncertainty about different sources of inaccuracy has been presented. Uncertainty about structural inaccuracy is the lack knowledge about the extent to which the structure of an emission inventory allows for an accurate calculation of the 'real' emission. Three causes for structural inaccuracy have been defined. These are aggregation error, incompleteness and mathematical formulation error. Uncertainty about input value inaccuracy is the lack of knowledge about the values of activity data and emission factors. Four causes for input value inaccuracy have been identified. These are extrapolation error, measurement error, unknown developments and reporting error.
Uncertainty about reliability can be assessed through peer review. For the assessment of inaccuracy, a distinction is made between internal and external assessment of uncertainty. In an internal assessment, the methodology and information to construct an emission inventory form the basis for the assessment of inaccuracy. Based on review of available methodologies six methods for internal assessment are proposed: (i) qualitative discussion, (ii) data quality rating, (iii) calculation cheek and evaluation of mathematical formulation, (iv) expert judgement, (v) error propagation and (vi) importance analysis. In an external assessment, the difference between the emission inventory and external sources of information is used to identify, qualify or quantify inaccuracy in the emission inventory. Four methods can be used:(1)comparison with other emission inventories, (ii) comparison with (in)direct measurements, (iii) forward air quality modelling and (iv) inverse air quality modelling.
Against this background we developed a systematic approach for the assessment of uncertainty in emission inventories. This framework, FRAULEIN (FRamework for the Assessment of Uncertainty in Large-scale Emission INventories) can be used to assess uncertainty about reliability and uncertainty about accuracy. It provides guidance for selection of the methods that can be used to identify, qualify or quantify different sources of uncertainty.
Several methods included in the framework have been analysed in more detail to identify the advantages and disadvantages of these methods in practice. Chapter 5 presents the results of assessment of uncertainties in estimates of 1990 N20 emissions from agriculture in The Netherlands using the methods of error propagation and importance analysis. The results indicate that only a small number (three out of 23) of uncertain inventory parameters have large share in the inaccuracy of the emission inventory. These parameters include emission factors for indirect N20 emissions (EF5), the fraction of N leaching from agricultural soils (Fracleach) and the emission factor for direct soil emissions (EF1). Reducing the inaccuracy in the inventory should therefore focus on improved quantification of indirect emissions (based on EF5 and Fracleach) and direct soil emissions (EF1). From a methodological point of view, the results of the N20 case study show that quantification of input value inaccuracy through error propagation is influenced by the statistical
quantification interpretation of the available information in the IPCC Guidelines (default values, and uncertainty ranges of emission factors in particular). This result provides an indication that the extent to which inaccuracies can be assessed depends not only on the characteristics of the method used for the assessment but also on the available information on inventory parameters. Identification of inventory parameters having the largest share in the inaccuracy, on the other hand, was not influenced by the statistical interpretation of IPCC information.
Chapter 6 describes the results of assessment of uncertainty in a European emission inventory of S02 in 1994 using forward air quality modelling and atmospheric measurements. The problem with this type of assessment is that it is not easy to pinpoint emission inventory inaccuracy as single cause of the deviation between measurements and model results. Inaccuracies exist in both the inventory, model and measurements. In the case study it has been analysed whether wind-direction-dependent differences between calculated and measured concentrations can be used to assess inaccuracies in emission inventories. The results indicate that in three regions within the study domain inaccuracy in the emission inventory is the most likely cause for the discrepancy between modelled and observed S02 concentrations. These regions are Sachsen/Brandenburg (Germany), Central England and the western part of the Russian Federation. In Sachsen/Brandenburg and Central England the spatial distribution of the emissions seems to be inaccurate while in the western part of the Russian Federation the total emission estimate seems to be inaccurate. We developed a relatively simple method to identify inventory inaccuracies based on differences between the air quality model and atmospheric measurements. However, it was also shown that the method is primarily a tool for identifying relatively inaccurate parts of the inventory. The method cannot be used to analyse causes of the inaccuracies, such as inaccurate structure or input values. Furthermore, it was concluded that the method is more a qualitative than a quantitative approach.
There are three ways to use FRAULEIN in practice. First, in situations where the method for uncertainty assessment is prescribed, FRAULEIN clarifies the sources of uncertainty that can be identified, qualified or quantified. Second, if the objective of a study is to assess a specific source of uncertainty, FRAULEIN may serve as a guide for selection of the appropriate methods. Third, if the aim is to perform a full assessment of inaccuracy, FRAULEIN forms the basis of a four-step approach: (1) identification, qualification (2) and quantification (3) of the sources of inaccuracy, followed by evaluation to prioritise further research (4).
|Wind-direction-dependent differences between model calculations and field measurements as indicator for inaccuracies in emission inventories
Aardenne, J.A. van; Builtjes, P. ; Pulles, T. ; Hordijk, L. ; Kroeze, C. - \ 2002
In: Annual Symposium, Emission factor and inventory group : US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta GA, 2001 Atlanta :
Using wind-direction-dependent differences between model calculations and field measurements as indicator for the inaccuracy of emission inventories
Aardenne, J.A. van; Builtjes, P.J.H. ; Hordijk, L. ; Kroeze, C. ; Pulles, M.P.J. - \ 2002
Atmospheric Environment 36 (2002). - ISSN 1352-2310 - p. 1195 - 1204.
|N2O emissions from manure management
Aardenne, J. van; Amon, B. ; Amstel, A. van; Groenestein, K. ; Heinemeijer, O. ; Oenema, O. - \ 2001
In: IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Chapter 4.4
A 1° x 1° resolution data set of historical anthropogenic trace gas emissions for the period 1890-1990
Aardenne, J.A. van; Dentener, F.J. ; Olivier, J.G.J. ; Klein Goldewijk, C.G.M. ; Lelieveld, J. - \ 2001
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15 (2001)4. - ISSN 0886-6236 - p. 909 - 928.
An anthropogenic emissions data set has been constructed for CO2, CO, CH4, nonmethane volatile organic compounds, SO2, NOx, N2O, and NH3 spanning the period 1890–1990. The inventory is based on version 2.0 of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR 2.0). In EDGAR the emissions are calculated per country and economic sector using an emission factor approach. Calculations of the emissions with 10 year intervals are based on historical activity statistics and selected emission factors. Historical activity data were derived from the Hundred Year Database for Integrated Environmental Assessments (1890–1990) supplemented with other data and our own estimates. Emission factors account for changes in economical and technological developments in the past. The calculated emissions on a country basis have been interpolated onto a 1°x1° grid. This consistent data set can be used in trend studies of tropospheric trace gases and in environmental assessments, for example, the analysis of historical contributions of regions and countries to environmental forcing like the enhanced greenhouse gas effect, acidification, and eutrofication. The database focuses on energy/industrial and agricultural/waste sources; for completeness, historical biomass-burning estimates where added using a simple and transparent approach. ? 2001 American Geophysical Union
|IMAGE 2 as IA tool to support the framework convention on climate change
Leemans, R. ; Aardenne, J. van - \ 2001
In: Puzzle-solving for policy: a provisional handbook for integrated assessment / van Asselt, M.B.A., Rotmans, J., Greeuw, S.C.H., Maastricht : International Centre for Integrative Studies - p. 145 - 149.
|Good practice in greenhouse gas emission inventories; agricultural emissions of methane and nitrous oxide
Amstel, A.R. van; Kroeze, C. ; Aardenne, J.A. van; Mosier, A.R. - \ 2000
In: Non-CO2 Greenhouse gases: scientific understanding, control and implementation / van Ham, J., Dordrecht : Kluwer Academic Publishers - ISBN 9780792361992 - p. 507 - 513.
|Uncertainties in the calculation of agricultural N2O emissions in the Netherlands using IPCC guidelines
Aardenne, J.A. van; Kroeze, C. ; Pulles, M.P.J. ; Hordijk, L. - \ 2000
In: Non CO2 greenhouse gases : scientific understanding, control and implementation / van Ham, J., Baede, A.P.M., Meyer, L.A., Ybema, R., Dordrecht : Kluwer Academic Publishers - p. 493 - 498.
|Verification, validation and uncertainties
Pulles, T. ; Aardenne, J.A. van - \ 2000
In: Monitoring of greenhouse gases in the Netherlands: uncertainty and priorities for improvement : National Workshop Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases in the Netherlands, Bilthoven, 9-2000 / van Amstel, A.R., Olivier, J.G.J., Ruyssenaars, P.G., Bilthoven : VROM/RIVM/WIMEK - p. 31 - 51.
|Anthropogenic fossil fuel sulfur and nitrogen emissions and sectorial in Asia
Carmichael, G. ; Streets, D.G. ; Aardenne, J.A. van; Arndt, R.L. - \ 2000
In: Proceedings of a Synthesis workshop on greenhouse gas emissions, aerosols, land use and cover changes in Southeast Asia : Synthesis Workshop on greenhouse gas emissions, aerosols, land use and cover changes in Southeast Asia, China-Taipei, november 15-18 China-Taipei : SARCS/IGAC/LUCC/IGBP Nat. Com. of Ac. Sinica - p. 51 - 59.
|Integrated assessment models and uncertainty analysis
Hordijk, L. ; Aardenne, J.A. ; Kroeze, C. - \ 1999
In: teh EFIEA Workshop on Uncertainty. Parkhotel Baden, Austria, 10-18 July, 1999. - [S.l.] : [s.n.], 1999 - p. 1 - 1.
|Uncertainties in the calculation of agricultural N2O emission in the Netherlands using IPCC guidelines
Aardenne, J.A. van; Kroeze, C. ; Pulles, M.P.J. ; Hordijk, L. - \ 1999
In: Proceedings Second Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Conference, Noordwijkerhout, 8-10 september 1999. - [S.l.] : [s.n.], 1999 - p. 1 - 1.