Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol
Taddei, Cristina ; Zhou, Bin ; Bixby, Honor ; Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M. ; Danaei, Goodarz ; Jackson, Rod T. ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Sophiea, Marisa K. ; Cesare, Mariachiara Di; Iurilli, Maria Laura Caminia ; Martinez, Andrea Rodriguez ; Asghari, Golaleh ; Dhana, Klodian ; Gulayin, Pablo ; Kakarmath, Sujay ; Santero, Marilina ; Voortman, Trudy ; Riley, Leanne M. ; Cowan, Melanie J. ; Savin, Stefan ; Bennett, James E. ; Stevens, Gretchen A. ; Paciorek, Christopher J. ; Aekplakorn, Wichai ; Cifkova, Renata ; Giampaoli, Simona ; Kengne, Andre Pascal ; Khang, Young Ho ; Kuulasmaa, Kari ; Laxmaiah, Avula ; Margozzini, Paula ; Mathur, Prashant ; Nordestgaard, Børge G. ; Zhao, Dong ; Aadahl, Mette ; Abarca-Gómez, Leandra ; Rahim, Hanan Abdul ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. ; Acosta-Cazares, Benjamin ; Adams, Robert J. ; Ferrieres, Jean ; Geleijnse, Johanna M. ; He, Yuna ; Jacobs, Jeremy M. ; Kromhout, Daan ; Ma, Guansheng ; Dam, Rob M. van; Wang, Qian ; Wang, Ya Xing ; Wang, Ying Wei - \ 2020
Nature 582 (2020)7810. - ISSN 0028-0836 - p. 73 - 77.
High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.
Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure : A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants
Ezzati, Majid ; Zhou, Bin ; Bentham, James ; Cesare, Mariachiara di; Bixby, Honor ; Danaei, Goodarz ; Hajifathalian, Kaveh ; Taddei, Cristina ; Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M. ; Djalalinia, Shirin ; Khatibzadeh, Shahab ; Lugero, Charles ; Peykari, Niloofar ; Zhang, Wan Zhu ; Bennett, James ; Bilano, Ver ; Stevens, Gretchen A. ; Cowan, Melanie J. ; Riley, Leanne M. ; Chen, Zhengming ; Hambleton, Ian R. ; Jackson, Rod T. ; Kengne, Andre Pascal ; Khang, Young Ho ; Laxmaiah, Avula ; Liu, Jing ; Malekzadeh, Reza ; Neuhauser, Hannelore K. ; Sorić, Maroje ; Starc, Gregor ; Sundström, Johan ; Woodward, Mark ; Abarca-Gómez, Leandra ; Abdeen, Ziad A. ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. ; Acosta-Cazares, Benjamin ; Adams, Robert J. ; Aekplakorn, Wichai ; Afsana, Kaosar ; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A. ; Geleijnse, Johanna M. - \ 2018
International Journal of Epidemiology 47 (2018)3. - ISSN 0300-5771 - p. 872 - 883i.
Blood pressure - Global health - Hypertension - Non-communicable disease - Population health
Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.
Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults
Bentham, James ; Cesare, Mariachiara Di; Bilano, Ver ; Bixby, Honor ; Zhou, Bin ; Stevens, Gretchen A. ; Riley, Leanne M. ; Taddei, Cristina ; Hajifathalian, Kaveh ; Lu, Yuan ; Savin, Stefan ; Cowan, Melanie J. ; Paciorek, Christopher J. ; Chirita-Emandi, Adela ; Hayes, Alison J. ; Katz, Joanne ; Kelishadi, Roya ; Kengne, Andre Pascal ; Khang, Young Ho ; Laxmaiah, Avula ; Li, Yanping ; Ma, Jun ; Miranda, J.J. ; Mostafa, Aya ; Neovius, Martin ; Padez, Cristina ; Rampal, Lekhraj ; Zhu, Aubrianna ; Bennett, James E. ; Danaei, Goodarz ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. ; Ezzati, Majid ; Abarca-Gómez, Leandra ; Abdeen, Ziad A. ; Hamid, Zargar Abdul ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. ; Acosta-Cazares, Benjamin ; Acuin, Cecilia ; Adams, Robert J. ; Aekplakorn, Wichai ; Afsana, Kaosar ; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A. ; Ferrieres, Jean ; Jacobs, Jeremy M. ; Kromhout, Daan ; Ma, Guansheng ; Peeters, Petra H. ; Wang, Qian ; Wang, Ya Xing ; Wang, Ying Wei ; Geleijnse, J.M. - \ 2017
The Lancet 390 (2017)10113. - ISSN 0140-6736 - p. 2627 - 2642.
Background Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. Methods We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). Findings Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24–89) million girls and 74 (39–125) million boys worldwide were obese. Interpretation The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults. Funding Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.