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Investing in antibiotics to alleviate future catastrophic outcomes: What is the value of having an effective antibiotic to mitigate pandemic influenza?
Megiddo, Itamar ; Drabik, D. ; Bedford, Tim ; Morton, Alec ; Wesseler, J.H.H. ; Laxminarayan, Ramanan - \ 2019
Health Economics 28 (2019)4. - ISSN 1057-9230 - p. 556 - 571.
antibiotics - antibiotics resistance - insurance value - pandemic influenza - real options analysis - secondary bacterial infections
Over 95% of post‐mortem samples from the 1918 pandemic, which caused 50
to 100 million deaths, showed bacterial infection complications. The introduc-
tion of antibiotics in the 1940s has since reduced the risk of bacterial infections,
but growing resistance to antibiotics could increase the toll from future
influenza pandemics if secondary bacterial infections are as serious as in
1918, or even if they are less severe. We develop a valuation model of the
option to withhold wide use of an antibiotic until significant outbreaks such
as pandemic influenza or foodborne diseases are identified. Using real options
theory, we derive conditions under which withholding wide use is beneficial,
and calculate the option value for influenza pandemic scenarios that lead to
secondary infections with a resistant Staphylococcus aureus strain. We find that
the value of withholding an effective novel oral antibiotic can be positive and
significant unless the pandemic is mild and causes few secondary infections
with the resistant strain or if most patients can be treated intravenously.
Although the option value is sensitive to parameter uncertainty, our results
suggest that further analysis on a case‐by‐case basis could guide investment
in novel agents as well as strategies on how to use them.
Elucidation of the Honeycrisp' pedigree through haplotype analysis with a multi-family integrated SNP linkage map and a large apple (Malus×domestica) pedigree-connected SNP data set
Howard, Nicholas P. ; Weg, Eric van de; Bedford, David S. ; Peace, Cameron P. ; Vanderzande, Stijn ; Clark, Matthew D. ; Teh, Soon Li ; Cai, Lichun ; Luby, James J. - \ 2017
Horticulture Research 4 (2017). - ISSN 2052-7276
The apple (Malus×domestica) cultivar Honeycrisp has become important economically and as a breeding parent. An earlier study with SSR markers indicated the original recorded pedigree of Honeycrisp' was incorrect and Keepsake' was identified as one putative parent, the other being unknown. The objective of this study was to verify Keepsake' as a parent and identify and genetically describe the unknown parent and its grandparents. A multi-family based dense and high-quality integrated SNP map was created using the apple 8 K Illumina Infinium SNP array. This map was used alongside a large pedigree-connected data set from the RosBREED project to build extended SNP haplotypes and to identify pedigree relationships. Keepsake' was verified as one parent of Honeycrisp' and Duchess of Oldenburg' and Golden Delicious' were identified as grandparents through the unknown parent. Following this finding, siblings of Honeycrisp' were identified using the SNP data. Breeding records from several of these siblings suggested that the previously unreported parent is a University of Minnesota selection, MN1627. This selection is no longer available, but now is genetically described through imputed SNP haplotypes. We also present the mosaic grandparental composition of Honeycrisp' for each of its 17 chromosome pairs. This new pedigree and genetic information will be useful in future pedigree-based genetic studies to connect Honeycrisp' with other cultivars used widely in apple breeding programs. The created SNP linkage map will benefit future research using the data from the Illumina apple 8 and 20 K and Affymetrix 480 K SNP arrays.
The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
Hudson, Lawrence N. ; Newbold, Tim ; Contu, Sara ; Hill, Samantha L.L. ; Lysenko, Igor ; Palma, Adriana De; Phillips, Helen R.P. ; Alhusseini, Tamera I. ; Bedford, Felicity E. ; Bennett, Dominic J. ; Bugter, R.J.F. - \ 2017
Ecology and Evolution 7 (2017)1. - ISSN 2045-7758 - p. 145 - 188.
The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
The 2016 release of the PREDICTS database
Hudson, Lawrence N. ; Newbold, Tim ; Contu, Sara ; Hill, Samantha L.L. ; Lysenko, Igor ; Palma, Adriana De; Phillips, Helen R.P. ; Alhusseini, Tamera I. ; Bedford, Felicity E. ; Bennett, Dominic J. ; Bugter, R.J.F. - \ 2016
alpha diversity - global diversity modelling - global change - habitat destruction - land cover - land use - terrestrial biodiversity
Nutrient limitation and botanical diversity in wetlands: Can fertilisation raise species richness?
Gusewell, S. ; Bailey, K.M. ; Roem, W.J. ; Bedford, B.L. - \ 2005
Oikos 109 (2005)1. - ISSN 0030-1299 - p. 71 - 80.
north-american wetlands - n-p ratios - environmental variables - european vegetation - regional patterns - community biomass - pool hypothesis - plant diversity - arctic tundra - nitrogen
The 'resource balance hypothesis' proposes that the species richness of grassland vegetation is potentially highest when the N:P ratio of plant tissues is 10-15 (co-limitation), so that species richness could be raised by fertilisation with N or P at sites with lower or higher N:P ratios, respectively. Here we use data from field surveys in Swiss, Dutch and American fens or wet grasslands to analyse what changes in N:P ratios might produce noticeable changes in species richness. Plant species numbers, above-ground biomass, tissue N and P concentrations and soil pH were recorded in plots of 0.06-4 m2. In each data set, plots with intermediate tissue N:P ratios (6-20) were on average most species-rich, but N:P ratios explained only 5-37% of the variation in species richness. Moreover, these effects were partially confounded with those of vegetation biomass and/or soil pH. The unique effects of N:P ratios (excluding those shared with biomass and pH) explained 11-17% of variation in species richness. The relationship between species richness and N:P ratios was asymmetric: plots with high N:P ratios were more species-poor than those with low N:P ratios. This was paralleled by a smaller species pool size at high N:P ratios (estimated from species numbers in multiple records), suggesting that fewer species are adapted to P-limited conditions than to N-limited conditions. According to these data, species richness in wetlands may possibly be raised by P-fertilisation when the initial N:P ratio of the vegetation is well above 20, but this option is not recommended for nature conservation as it might promote common species at the expense of rare ones
The coffee diterpene cafestol increases plasma triacylglycerol by increasing the production rate of large VLDL apolipoprotein B in healthy normolipidemic subjects
Roos, B. de; Caslake, M.J. ; Stalenhoef, A.F.H. ; Bedford, D. ; Demacker, P.N. ; Katan, M.B. ; Packard, C.J. - \ 2001
American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 73 (2001)1. - ISSN 0002-9165 - p. 45 - 52.
Background: Cafestol is a diterpene in unfiltered coffee that raises plasma triacylglycerol in humans. Objective: We studied whether cafestol increases plasma triacylglycerol by increasing the production rate or by decreasing the fractional catabolic rate of VLDL1 [Svedberg flotation unit (Sf) 60-400] apolipoprotein (apo) B. In addition, we studied the effect of cafestol on the composition of VLDL1 and VLDL2 (Sf 2060). Design: Eight healthy normolipidemic men were administered a daily dose of 75 mg cafestol for 2 wk. A bolus injection of 7 mg L-[5,5,5-2H3]leucine/kg body wt was given after a baseline period with no cafestol and again after treatment with cafestol. We derived kinetic constants to describe the metabolism of VLDL1 apo B by using a multicompartmental model. Results: Cafestol significantly increased plasma triacylglycerol by 31␘r 0.32 mmol/L (95␌I: 0.03, 0.61); the increase was due mainly to a nonsignificant rise in VLDL1 triacylglycerol of 57␘r 0.23 mmol/L (95␌I: -0.02, 0.48). Cafestol significantly increased the mean rate of VLDL1 apo B production by 80␘r 755 mg/d (95␌I: 0.2, 5353), whereas it did not significantly change the mean fractional catabolic rate of VLDL1 apo B (mean increase of 3 pools/d; 95␌I: -4, 10]). Cafestol did not change the composition of VLDL1. A significant increase in the ratio of VLDL2 cholesteryl ester to triacylglycerol indicates that VLDL2 became enriched with cholesteryl esters at the cost of triacylglycerol. Conclusion: Cafestol increases plasma triacylglycerol by increasing the production rate of VLDL1 apo B, probably via increased assembly of VLDL1 in the liver
|Informal elderly care in rural Special Region Yogyakarta, Indonesia : Preliminary results of the quantitative survey
Keasberry, I.N. - \ 1997
In: Aging Beyond 2000: One World One Future : Book of abstracts of the 16th Congress of the International Association of Gerontology, Adelaide, August 9-23, 1997 / G.R. Andrews, L.J. Mykyta, M.M. Andrews, S.A. Pearson, A.J. Gregory and J.C.Hagger(eds.).- Bedford Park, South Australia : 1997 World Congress of Gerontology, 1997. - ISBN: 0646327828 - p. 401 - 401.
|Isolation and characterisation of Bacillus cereus from pasteurised milk in household refrigerators in The Netherlands.
Giffel, M.C. te; Beumer, R.R. ; Granum, P.E. ; Rombouts, F.M. - \ 1997
In: Symposium Toxins, University of East Anglia, Norwich, 1997, Society for Applied Bacteriology, Bedford, UK (1997) xi
|Agro-ecology, participation and irrigation: Learning from different system concepts.
Vincent, L. - \ 1997
In: Workshop of the Natural Resources Syst. Progr., Silsoe, 1997. More from Less: Better Water Management. Cranfield Univ., Silsoe, Bedford, U.K - p. 13 - 24.
|The failure of adjustable irrigation technology.
Horst, L. - \ 1997
In: Workshop of the Nat. Resources Syst. Progr., Silsoe, 1997. More from Less: Better Water Management. Cranfield Univ., Silsoe, Bedford, U.K - p. 76 - 79.
|Determination of agricultural soil parameters that can be used in Plaxis finite element code.
Barneveld, A.S. - \ 1994
In: Proc. 2nd Int. Conf. Soil dynamics. Silsoe College, Silsoe, Bedford, UK - p. 7 - 9.
|Strength of substrates in urban horticulture in Amsterdam.
Koolen, A.J. - \ 1994
In: Proc. 2nd Int. Conf. Soil dynamics. Silsoe College, Silsoe, Bedford, UK - p. 63 - 65.
|Improvement of symbiotic nitrogen fixation by Alnus sp. in monoculture and in mixed stands with poplar or douglas in The Netherlands.
Hahn, D. ; Starrenburg, M.J.C. ; Akkermans, A.D.L. - \ 1988
In: Proc. CEC Int. Congr. Euroforum New Energies, Saarbrücken. Publ. H.S. Stephen & Ass., Bedford, UK. Vol. 3 - p. 437 - 439.