Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    Following the water: Characterising de facto wastewater reuse in agriculture in the Netherlands
    Beard, Jack E. ; Bierkens, Marc F.P. ; Bartholomeus, Ruud P. - \ 2019
    Sustainability 11 (2019)21. - ISSN 2071-1050
    Circular economy - Drought - Irrigation - Wastewater reuse - Water quality

    De facto (or indirect) wastewater reuse is the practice of extracting from surface water bodies which are impacted by treated wastewater (TWW) for anthropogenic use. The extent to which surface water bodies in the Netherlands are impacted by TWW is poorly understood, and the distribution of de facto reuse even more so. This study addresses these knowledge gaps, with a focus on reuse for agricultural irrigation. This is achieved via a novel application of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) Explorer water quality model, allowing for the distribution of different flow components-namely TWW and flow from transboundary rivers-to be discerned for the national surface water network. When paired with data on surface water extractions for irrigation, this identifies notable areas of de facto reuse. Results show that during dry conditions, TWW is a significant flow component in many surface water bodies, particularly in smaller streams located close to WWTPs. De facto reuse is indicated as widespread, with several key areas identified in which extractions are from impacted surface water bodies. This study represents a first attempt to directly link TWW emissions to agricultural irrigation, highlighting a mechanism by which wastewater-associated contaminants can propagate through the hydrological system.

    Determining the relation between groundwater flow velocities and measured temperature differences using active heating-distributed temperature sensing
    Bakx, Wiecher ; Doornenbal, Pieter J. ; Weesep, Rebecca J. van; Bense, Victor F. ; Oude Essink, Gualbert H.P. ; Bierkens, Marc F.P. - \ 2019
    Water 11 (2019)8. - ISSN 2073-4441
    Distributed temperature sensing - Groundwater monitoring - Groundwater velocities

    Active Heating-Distributed Temperature Sensing (AH-DTS) has the potential to allow for the measurement of groundwater flow velocities in situ. We placed DTS fiber-optic cables combined with a heating wire in direct contact with aquifer sediments in a laboratory scale groundwater flow simulator. Using this setup, we empirically determined the relationship between ΔT, the temperature difference by constant and uniform heating of the DTS cable and the background temperature of the groundwater system, and horizontal groundwater flow velocity. Second, we simulated the observed temperature response of the system using a plan-view heat transfer flow model to calibrate for the thermal properties of the sediment and to optimize cable setup for sensitivity to variation in groundwater flow velocities. Additionally, we derived an analytical solution based on the heat flow equation that can be used to explicitly calculate flow velocity from measured ΔT for this specific AH-DTS cable setup. We expect that this equation, after calibration for cable constitution, is valid for estimating groundwater flow velocity based on absolute temperature differences measured in field applications using this cable setup.

    Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH)–a community perspective
    Blöschl, Günter ; Bierkens, Marc F.P. ; Chambel, Antonio ; Cudennec, Christophe ; Destouni, Georgia ; Fiori, Aldo ; Kirchner, James W. ; McDonnell, Jeffrey J. ; Savenije, Hubert H.G. ; Sivapalan, Murugesu ; Stumpp, Christine ; Toth, Elena ; Volpi, Elena ; Carr, Gemma ; Lupton, Claire ; Salinas, Josè ; Széles, Borbála ; Viglione, Alberto ; Aksoy, Hafzullah ; Allen, Scott T. ; Amin, Anam ; Andréassian, Vazken ; Arheimer, Berit ; Aryal, Santosh K. ; Baker, Victor ; Bardsley, Earl ; Barendrecht, Marlies H. ; Bartosova, Alena ; Batelaan, Okke ; Berghuijs, Wouter R. ; Beven, Keith ; Blume, Theresa ; Bogaard, Thom ; Borges de Amorim, Pablo ; Böttcher, Michael E. ; Boulet, Gilles ; Breinl, Korbinian ; Brilly, Mitja ; Brocca, Luca ; Buytaert, Wouter ; Castellarin, Attilio ; Castelletti, Andrea ; Chen, Xiaohong ; Chen, Yangbo ; Chen, Yuanfang ; Chifflard, Peter ; Claps, Pierluigi ; Clark, Martyn P. ; Collins, Adrian L. ; Croke, Barry ; Dathe, Annette ; David, Paula C. ; Barros, Felipe P.J. de; Rooij, Gerrit de; Baldassarre, Giuliano Di; Driscoll, Jessica M. ; Duethmann, Doris ; Dwivedi, Ravindra ; Eris, Ebru ; Farmer, William H. ; Feiccabrino, James ; Ferguson, Grant ; Ferrari, Ennio ; Ferraris, Stefano ; Fersch, Benjamin ; Finger, David ; Foglia, Laura ; Fowler, Keirnan ; Gartsman, Boris ; Gascoin, Simon ; Gaume, Eric ; Gelfan, Alexander ; Geris, Josie ; Gharari, Shervan ; Gleeson, Tom ; Glendell, Miriam ; Gonzalez Bevacqua, Alena ; González-Dugo, María P. ; Grimaldi, Salvatore ; Gupta, A.B. ; Guse, Björn ; Han, Dawei ; Hannah, David ; Harpold, Adrian ; Haun, Stefan ; Heal, Kate ; Helfricht, Kay ; Herrnegger, Mathew ; Hipsey, Matthew ; Hlaváčiková, Hana ; Hohmann, Clara ; Holko, Ladislav ; Hopkinson, Christopher ; Hrachowitz, Markus ; Illangasekare, Tissa H. ; Inam, Azhar ; Innocente, Camyla ; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan ; Jarihani, Ben ; Kalantari, Zahra ; Kalvans, Andis ; Khanal, Sonu ; Khatami, Sina ; Kiesel, Jens ; Kirkby, Mike ; Knoben, Wouter ; Kochanek, Krzysztof ; Kohnová, Silvia ; Kolechkina, Alla ; Krause, Stefan ; Kreamer, David ; Kreibich, Heidi ; Kunstmann, Harald ; Lange, Holger ; Liberato, Margarida L.R. ; Lindquist, Eric ; Link, Timothy ; Liu, Junguo ; Loucks, Daniel Peter ; Luce, Charles ; Mahé, Gil ; Makarieva, Olga ; Malard, Julien ; Mashtayeva, Shamshagul ; Maskey, Shreedhar ; Mas-Pla, Josep ; Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria ; Mazzoleni, Maurizio ; Mernild, Sebastian ; Misstear, Bruce Dudley ; Montanari, Alberto ; Müller-Thomy, Hannes ; Nabizadeh, Alireza ; Nardi, Fernando ; Neale, Christopher ; Nesterova, Nataliia ; Nurtaev, Bakhram ; Odongo, Vincent O. ; Panda, Subhabrata ; Pande, Saket ; Pang, Zhonghe ; Papacharalampous, Georgia ; Perrin, Charles ; Pfister, Laurent ; Pimentel, Rafael ; Polo, María J. ; Post, David ; Prieto Sierra, Cristina ; Ramos, Maria Helena ; Renner, Maik ; Reynolds, José Eduardo ; Ridolfi, Elena ; Rigon, Riccardo ; Riva, Monica ; Robertson, David E. ; Rosso, Renzo ; Roy, Tirthankar ; Sá, João H.M. ; Salvadori, Gianfausto ; Sandells, Mel ; Schaefli, Bettina ; Schumann, Andreas ; Scolobig, Anna ; Seibert, Jan ; Servat, Eric ; Shafiei, Mojtaba ; Sharma, Ashish ; Sidibe, Moussa ; Sidle, Roy C. ; Skaugen, Thomas ; Smith, Hugh ; Spiessl, Sabine M. ; Stein, Lina ; Steinsland, Ingelin ; Strasser, Ulrich ; Su, Bob ; Szolgay, Jan ; Tarboton, David ; Tauro, Flavia ; Thirel, Guillaume ; Tian, Fuqiang ; Tong, Rui ; Tussupova, Kamshat ; Tyralis, Hristos ; Uijlenhoet, Remko ; Beek, Rens van; Ent, Ruud J. van der; Ploeg, Martine van der; Loon, Anne F. Van; Meerveld, Ilja van; Nooijen, Ronald van; Oel, Pieter R. van; Vidal, Jean Philippe ; Freyberg, Jana von; Vorogushyn, Sergiy ; Wachniew, Przemyslaw ; Wade, Andrew J. ; Ward, Philip ; Westerberg, Ida K. ; White, Christopher ; Wood, Eric F. ; Woods, Ross ; Xu, Zongxue ; Yilmaz, Koray K. ; Zhang, Yongqiang - \ 2019
    Hydrological Sciences Journal 64 (2019)10. - ISSN 0262-6667 - p. 1141 - 1158.
    hydrology - interdisciplinary - knowledge gaps - research agenda - science questions

    This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.

    ICON.NL: coastline observatory to examine coastal dynamics in response to natural forcing and human interventions
    Aarninkhof, Stefan ; Schipper, Matthieu De; Luijendijk, Arjen ; Ruessink, Gerben ; Bierkens, Marc ; Wijnberg, Kathelijne ; Roelvink, Dano ; Limpens, J. ; Baptist, M.J. ; Riksen, Michel ; Bouma, Tjeerd ; Vries, Sierd de; Reniers, Ad ; Hulscher, Suzanne ; Wijdeveld, Arjan ; Dongeren, Ap van; Gelder-Maas, Carola van; Lodder, Quirijn ; Spek, Ad van der - \ 2019
    - 8 p.
    In the light of challenges raised by a changing climate and increasing population pressure in coastal regions, it has become clear that theoretical models and scattered experiments do not provide the data we urgently need to understand coastal conditions and processes. We propose a Dutch coastline observatory named ICON.NL, based at the Delfland Coast with core observations focused on the internationally well-known Sand Engine experiment, as part of an International Coastline Observatories Network (ICON). ICON.NL will cover the physics and ecology from deep water to the dunes. Data will be collected continuously by novel remote sensing and in-situ sensors, coupled to numerical models to yield unsurpassed long-term coastline measurements. The combination of the unique site and ambitious monitoring design enables new avenues in coastal science and a leap in interdisciplinary research.
    The Shadow Price of Irrigation Water in Major Groundwater‐Depleting Countries
    Bierkens, M.F.P. ; Reinhard, A.J. ; Bruijn, Jens A. de; Veninga, Willeke ; Wada, Yoshihide - \ 2019
    Water Resources Research 55 (2019)5. - ISSN 0043-1397 - p. 4266 - 4287.
    In many semiarid regions with irrigation, the depletion rate of groundwater resources has increased substantially during the last decades. A possible reason for this is that the price that users pay for their water does not reflect its scarcity and value. An alternative way to assess the perceived value of water is calculating its shadow price, which is defined here as the marginal value produced, and relates to the efficiency gain from current reallocation. Here we determine the shadow price of water used for irrigation for the most important groundwater‐depleting countries and for four staple crops and one cash crop. To quantify the shadow price, the relation between the output and the water input is represented using production functions. We use globally available panel data on country‐specific crop yields and prices together with crop‐specific water consumption, calculated with the global hydrological model PCR‐GLOBWB, to parameterize the production function by country and crop with econometric analyses.
    Our results show that the variation of shadow prices for staple crops within several countries is high, indicating economically inefficient use of water resources, including nonrenewable groundwater. We also analyze the effects of reallocating irrigation water between crops, showing that changes in water
    allocation could lead to either an increase in the economic efficiency of water use or large reductions in irrigation water consumption. Our study thus provides a hydroeconomic basis to stimulate sustainable use of finite groundwater resources globally.
    High-Resolution Global Water Temperature Modeling
    Wanders, Niko ; Vliet, Michelle T.H. van; Wada, Yoshihide ; Bierkens, Marc F.P. ; Beek, Ludovicus P.H. van - \ 2019
    Water Resources Research 55 (2019)4. - ISSN 0043-1397 - p. 2760 - 2778.
    global - high-resolution - modeling - water temperature

    The temperature of river water plays a crucial role in many physical, chemical, and aquatic ecological processes. Despite the importance of having detailed information on this environmental variable at locally relevant scales (≤50 km), high-resolution simulations of water temperature on a large scale are currently lacking. We have developed the dynamical 1-D water energy routing model (DynWat), that solves both the energy and water balance, to simulate river temperatures for the period 1960–2014 at a nominal 10-km and 50-km resolution. The DynWat model accounts for surface water abstraction, reservoirs, riverine flooding, and formation of ice, enabling a realistic representation of the water temperature. We present a novel 10-km water temperature data set at the global scale for all major rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. Validated results against 358 stations worldwide indicate a decrease in the simulated root-mean-square error (0.2 °C) and bias (0.7 °C), going from 50- to 10-km simulations. We find an average global increase in water temperature of 0.16 °C per decade between 1960 and 2014, with more rapid warming toward 2014. Results show increasing trends for the annual daily maxima in the Northern Hemisphere (0.62 °C per decade) and the annual daily minima in the Southern Hemisphere (0.45 °C per decade) for 1960–2014. The high-resolution modeling framework not only improves the model performance, it also positively impacts the relevance of the simulations for regional-scale studies and impact assessments in a region without observations. The resulting global water temperature data set could help to improve the accuracy of decision-support systems that depend on water temperature estimates.

    The response of metal leaching from soils to climate change and land management in a temperate lowland catchment
    Perk, Marcel van der; Stergiadi, Maria ; Nijs, Ton C.M. de; Comans, Rob N.J. ; Bierkens, Marc F.P. - \ 2018
    Catena 171 (2018). - ISSN 0341-8162 - p. 426 - 439.
    CENTURY model - Climate change - Heavy metals - Leaching - Soil organic matter - Spatial modelling

    Changes in soil hydrology as a result of climate change or changes in land management may affect metal release and leaching from soils. The aim of this study is to assess the cascading response of SOM and DOC levels and metal leaching to climate change in the medium-sized lowland Dommel catchment in the southern part of the Netherlands. We implemented the CENTURY model in a spatial setting to simulate SOM, DOC, and water dynamics in topsoils of the Dutch portion of the Dommel catchment under various climate and land management scenarios. These CENTURY model outputs were subsequently used to calculate changes in the topsoil concentrations, solubility, and leaching of cadmium (Cd) and zinc (Zn) for current (1991–2010) and future (2081–2100) conditions using empirical partition-relations. Since the metal leaching model could not be evaluated quantitatively against measured values, we focus mainly on the trends in the projected metal concentrations and leaching rates for the different scenarios. Our results show that under all climate and land management scenarios, the SOM contents in the topsoil of the Dommel catchment are projected to increase by about 10% and the DOC concentrations to decrease by about 20% in the period from present to 2100. These changes in SOM and DOC only have a minor influence on metal concentrations and leaching rates under the climate change scenarios. Our scenario calculations show a considerable decrease in topsoil Cd concentrations in the next century as a result of increased percolation rates. Zinc, however, shows an increase due to agricultural inputs to soil via manure application. These trends are primarily controlled by the balance between atmospheric and agricultural inputs and output via leaching. While SOM and DOC are important controls on the spatial variation in metal mobility and leaching rates, climate-induced changes in SOM and DOC only have a minor influence on metal concentrations and leaching rates. The climate-induced changes in metal concentrations in both the topsoil and the soil leachate are primarily driven by changes in precipitation and associated water percolation rates.

    The shadow price of fossil groundwater
    Bierkens, M.F.P. ; Reinhard, A.J. ; Bruijn, J.A. de; Wada, Yoshihide - \ 2017
    Human-water interface in hydrological modelling : Current status and future directions
    Wada, Yoshihide ; Bierkens, Marc F.P. ; Roo, Ad de; Dirmeyer, Paul A. ; Famiglietti, James S. ; Hanasaki, Naota ; Konar, Megan ; Liu, Junguo ; Schmied, Hannes Möller ; Oki, Taikan ; Pokhrel, Yadu ; Sivapalan, Murugesu ; Troy, Tara J. ; Dijk, Albert I.J.M. Van; Emmerik, Tim Van; Huijgevoort, Marjolein H.J. Van; Lanen, Henny A.J. van; Vörösmarty, Charles J. ; Wanders, Niko ; Wheater, Howard - \ 2017
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 (2017)8. - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 4169 - 4193.

    Over recent decades, the global population has been rapidly increasing and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes to an unprecedented extent. The phenomenal growth of the human footprint has significantly modified hydrological processes in various ways (e.g. irrigation, artificial dams, and water diversion) and at various scales (from a watershed to the globe). During the early 1990s, awareness of the potential for increased water scarcity led to the first detailed global water resource assessments. Shortly thereafter, in order to analyse the human perturbation on terrestrial water resources, the first generation of largescale hydrological models (LHMs) was produced. However, at this early stage few models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities, including water use and reservoir regulation, and even fewer models distinguished water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Since the early 2000s, a growing number of LHMs have incorporated human impacts on the hydrological cycle, yet the representation of human activities in hydrological models remains challenging. In this paper we provide a synthesis of progress in the development and application of human impact modelling in LHMs. We highlight a number of key challenges and discuss possible improvements in order to better represent the human-water interface in hydrological models.

    Skill of a global forecasting system in seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction
    Candogan Yossef, Naze ; Beek, Rens Van; Weerts, Albrecht ; Winsemius, Hessel ; Bierkens, Marc F.P. - \ 2017
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 (2017)8. - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 4103 - 4114.

    In this study we assess the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts with the global hydrological forecasting system Flood Early Warning System (FEWS)-World, which has been set up within the European Commission 7th Framework Programme Project Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS). FEWS-World incorporates the distributed global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (PCRaster Global Water Balance). We produce ensemble forecasts of monthly discharges for 20 large rivers of the world, with lead times of up to 6 months, forcing the system with bias-corrected seasonal meteorological forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and with probabilistic meteorological ensembles obtained following the ESP procedure. Here, the ESP ensembles, which contain no actual information on weather, serve as a benchmark to assess the additional skill that may be obtained using ECMWF seasonal forecasts. We use the Brier skill score (BSS) to quantify the skill of the system in forecasting high and low flows, defined as discharges higher than the 75th and lower than the 25th percentiles for a given month, respectively. We determine the theoretical skill by comparing the results against model simulations and the actual skill in comparison to discharge observations. We calculate the ratios of actual-to-theoretical skill in order to quantify the percentage of the potential skill that is achieved. The results suggest that the performance of ECMWF S3 forecasts is close to that of the ESP forecasts. While better meteorological forecasts could potentially lead to an improvement in hydrological forecasts, this cannot be achieved yet using the ECMWF S3 dataset.

    The evolution of process-based hydrologic models : Historical challenges and the collective quest for physical realism
    Clark, Martyn P. ; Bierkens, Marc F.P. ; Samaniego, Luis ; Woods, Ross A. ; Uijlenhoet, Remko ; Bennett, Katrina E. ; Pauwels, Valentijn R.N. ; Cai, Xitian ; Wood, Andrew W. ; Peters-Lidard, Christa D. - \ 2017
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 (2017)7. - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 3427 - 3440.
    The diversity in hydrologic models has historically led to great controversy on the "correct" approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, with debates centered on the adequacy of process parameterizations, data limitations and uncertainty, and computational constraints on model analysis. In this paper, we revisit key modeling challenges on requirements to (1) define suitable model equations, (2) define adequate model parameters, and (3) cope with limitations in computing power. We outline the historical modeling challenges, provide examples of modeling advances that address these challenges, and define outstanding research needs. We illustrate how modeling advances have been made by groups using models of different type and complexity, and we argue for the need to more effectively use our diversity of modeling approaches in order to advance our collective quest for physically realistic hydrologic models.
    Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change
    Vliet, M.T.H. van; Beek, L.P.H. van; Eisner, S. ; Flörke, M. ; Wada, Y. ; Bierkens, M.F.P. - \ 2016
    Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 40 (2016). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 156 - 170.
    Climate change - Cooling water - Global hydrological models - Hydropower - Water resources - Water temperature

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971–2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18–33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11–14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41–51% (RCP8.5–SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

    Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data erros
    Sperna Weiland, F. ; Vrugt, J.A. ; Beek, van, P.H. ; Weerts, A.H. ; Bierkens, M.F.P. - \ 2015
    Journal of Hydrology 529 (2015)part 3. - ISSN 0022-1694 - p. 1095 - 1115.
    In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.
    Quantifying energy and water fluxes in dry dune ecosystems of the Netherlands
    Voortman, B.R. ; Bartholomeus, R.P. ; Zee, S.E.A.T.M. van der; Bierkens, M.F.P. ; Witte, J.M.P. - \ 2015
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19 (2015). - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 3787 - 3805.
    Coastal and inland dunes provide various ecosystem services that are related to groundwater, such as drinking water production and biodiversity. To manage groundwater in a sustainable manner, knowledge of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) for the various land covers in dunes is essential. Aiming at improving the parameterization of dune vegetation in hydrometeorological models, this study explores the magnitude of energy and water fluxes in an inland dune ecosystem in the Netherlands. Hydrometeorological measurements were used to parameterize the Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration model for four different surfaces: bare sand, moss, grass and heather. We found that the net longwave radiation (Rnl) was the largest energy flux for most surfaces during daytime. However, modeling this flux by a calibrated FAO-56 Rnl model for each surface and for hourly time steps was unsuccessful. Our Rnl model, with a novel submodel using solar elevation angle and air temperature to describe the diurnal pattern in radiative surface temperature, improved Rnl simulations considerably. Model simulations of evaporation from moss surfaces showed that the modulating effect of mosses on the water balance is species-dependent. We demonstrate that dense moss carpets (Campylopus introflexus) evaporate more (5 %, +14 mm) than bare sand (total of 258 mm in 2013), while more open-structured mosses (Hypnum cupressiforme) evaporate less (-30 %, -76 mm) than bare sand. Additionally, we found that a drought event in the summer of 2013 showed a pronounced delayed signal on lysimeter measurements of ETa for the grass and heather surfaces, respectively. Due to the desiccation of leaves after the drought event, and their feedback on the surface resistance, the potential evapotranspiration in the year 2013 dropped by 9 % (-37 mm) and 10 % (-61 mm) for the grass and heather surfaces, respectively, which subsequently led to lowered ETa of 8 % (-29 mm) and 7 % (-29 mm). These feedbacks are of importance for water resources, especially during a changing climate with an increasing number of drought days. Therefore, such feedbacks need to be integrated into a coupled plant physiological and hydrometeorological model to accurately simulate ETa. In addition, our study showed that groundwater recharge in dunes can be increased considerably by promoting moss vegetation, especially of open-structured moss species.
    Water management in the Roman world
    Dermody, B.J. ; Beek, R.P.H. van; Meeks, E. ; Klein Goldewijk, K. ; Bierkens, M.F.P. ; Scheidel, W. ; Wassen, M.J. ; Velde, Y. van der; Dekker, S.C. - \ 2014
    Virtual water management in the Roman world
    Dermody, B.J. ; Beek, R.P.H. van; Meeks, E. ; Klein Goldewijk, K. ; Scheidel, W. ; Velde, Y. van der; Bierkens, M.F.P. ; Wassen, M.J. ; Dekker, S.C. - \ 2014
    Abstract Climate change can have extreme societal impacts particularly in regions that are water-limited for agriculture. A society’s ability to manage its water resources in such environments is critical to its long-term viability. Water management can involve improving agricultural yields through in-situ irrigation or the redistribution of virtual water resources through trade in food. Here, we explore how such water management strategies improve societal resilience by examining virtual water management during the Roman Empire in the water-limited region of the Mediterranean. Climate was prescribed based on previously published reconstructions which show that during the Roman Empire when the Central Mediterranean was wetter, the West and Southeastern Mediterranean became drier and vice-versa. Evidence indicates that these shifts in the climatic seesaw may have occurred relatively rapidly. Using the Global hydrological model PCR GLOBWB and estimates of landcover based on the HYDE dataset we generate potential agricultural yield maps under two extremes of this climatic seesaw. HYDE estimates of population in conjunction with potential yield estimates are used to identify regions of Mediterranean with a yield surplus or deficit. The surplus and deficit regions form nodes on a virtual water redistribution network with transport costs taken from the Stanford Geospatial Network Model of the Roman World (ORBIS). Our demand-driven, virtual water redistribution network allows us to quantitatively explore the importance of water management strategies such as irrigation and food trade for the Romans. By examining virtual water transport cost anomalies between climate scenarios our analysis highlights regions of the Mediterranean that were most vulnerable to climate change during the Roman Period.
    A virtual water network of the Roman world
    Dermody, B.J. ; Beek, R.P.H. van; Meeks, E. ; Klein Goldewijk, K. ; Scheidel, W. ; Velde, Y. van der; Bierkens, M.F.P. ; Wassen, M.J. ; Dekker, S.C. - \ 2014
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 11 (2014)6. - ISSN 1812-2108 - p. 6561 - 6597.
    The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanisation and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanisation and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to climate variability in the short term. However, urbanisation arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and reduced its resilience to climate variability in the long-term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.
    Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing
    Yossef, N.C. ; Winsemius, H. ; Weerts, A.H. ; Beek, R. van; Bierkens, M.F.P. - \ 2013
    Water Resources Research 49 (2013)8. - ISSN 0043-1397 - p. 4687 - 4699.
    united-states - hydrological model - water-resources - climate-change - discharge - predictability - availability - prediction - validation - balances
    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through better climate prediction or by better estimation of ICs through data assimilation depends on the relative importance of these sources of uncertainty. We use the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP (revESP) procedure to explore the impact of both sources of uncertainty at 78 stations on large global basins for lead times upto 6 months. We compare the ESP and revESP forecast ensembles with retrospective model simulations driven by meteorological observations. For each location, we determine the critical lead time after which the importance of ICs is surpassed by that of MF. We analyze these results in the context of prevailing hydroclimatic conditions for larger basins. This analysis suggests that in some basins forecast skill may be improved by better estimation of initial hydrologic states through data assimilation; whereas in others skill improvement depends on better climate prediction. For arctic and snowfed rivers, forecasts of high flows may benefit from assimilation of snow and ice data. In some snowfed basins where the onset of melting is highly sensitive to temperature changes, forecast skill depends on better climate prediction. In monsoonal basins, the variability of the monsoon dominates forecasting skill, except for those where snow and ice contribute to streamflow. In large basins, initial surface water and groundwater states are important sources of skill.
    Spatial rainfall data in open source environment
    Schuurmans, H. ; Verbree, J.M. ; Leijnse, H. ; Heeringen, K.J. van; Uijlenhoet, R. ; Bierkens, M.F.P. ; Giesen, N.C. van de; Gooijer, J. ; Houten, G.J. van den - \ 2013
    Since January 2013 The Netherlands have access to innovative high-quality rainfall data that is used for watermanagers. This product is innovative because of the following reasons. (i) The product is developed in a 'golden triangle' construction - corporation between government, business and research. (ii) Second the rainfall products are developed according to the open-source GPL license. The initiative comes from a group of water boards in the Netherlands that joined their forces to fund the development of a new rainfall product. Not only data from Dutch radar stations (as is currently done by the Dutch meteorological organization KNMI) is used but also data from radars in Germany and Belgium. After a radarcomposite is made, it is adjusted according to data from raingauges (ground truth). This results in 9 different rainfall products that give for each moment the best rainfall data. Specific knowledge is necessary to develop these kind of data. Therefore a pool of experts (KNMI, Deltares and 3 universities) participated in the development. The philosophy of the developers (being corporations) is that products like this should be developed in open source. This way knowledge is shared and the whole community is able to make suggestions for improvement. In our opinion this is the only way to make real progress in product development. Furthermore the financial resources of government organizations are optimized. More info (in Dutch):
    Dutch national rainfall radar project: a unique cooperation
    Schuurmans, H. ; Verbree, J.M. ; Leijnse, H. ; Heeringen, K.J. van; Uijlenhoet, R. ; Bierkens, M.F.P. ; Giesen, N.C. van de; Gooijer, J. ; Houten, G.J. van den - \ 2013
    Since January 2013 Dutch watermanagers have access to innovative high-quality rainfall data. This product is innovative because of the following reasons. (i) The product is developed in a 'golden triangle' construction - corporation between government, business and research institutes. (ii) Second the rainfall products are developed according to the open-source GPL license. The initiative comes from a group of water boards in the Netherlands that joined their forces to fund the development of a new rainfall product. Not only data from Dutch radar stations (as is currently done by the Dutch meteorological organization KNMI) is used but also data from radars in Germany and Belgium. After a radarcomposite is made, it is adjusted according to data from raingauges (ground truth). This results in 9 different rainfall products that give for each moment the best rainfall data. This data will be used, depending on the end-user for several applications: (i) forecasts: input for flood early warning systems, (ii) water system analysis: hydrological model input, (iii) optimization: real time control and (iv) investigation of incidents: in case of flooding, who's responsible. The latter is mainly insight in the return period of heavy rainfall events. More info (in Dutch):
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