Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    Traditional livestock systems in Tanzania: an application of the TEEB Framework
    Baltussen, W.H.M. ; Berkum, S. van; Dijkxhoorn, Y. ; Helmes, R.J.K. ; Ozkan-Gulzari, S. ; Vellinga, Th.V. ; Massawe, G.D. ; Galgani, P. ; Borniotto, D. ; Elzen, F. van den; Smith, T. - \ 2020
    TEEB - 97 p.
    Transition pathways - contours of an analytical framework
    Elzen, Boelie ; Haas, Wim de; Wigboldus, Seerp ; Bos, Bram ; Dijkshoorn-Dekker, Marijke - \ 2020
    Wageningen : Stichting Wageningen Research, Wageningen Plant Research, Business Unit Field Crops (Report WPR 839) - 30
    ZEEVIVO Zeewier in visvoer : Visproductie: selectie en karakterisatie van op zeewier gebaseerde eiwitconcentraten voor visvoeders
    Kals, Jeroen ; Schram, Edward ; Elzen, Fedor den; Hertfelder, Luca ; Hylkema, Alwin - \ 2020
    Wageningen : Wageningen Livestock Research (Rapport / Wageningen Livestock Research 1223) - 43
    Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
    Roelfsema, Mark ; Soest, Heleen L. van; Harmsen, Mathijs ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Bertram, Christoph ; Elzen, Michel den; Höhne, Niklas ; Iacobuta, Gabriela ; Krey, Volker ; Kriegler, Elmar ; Luderer, Gunnar ; Riahi, Keywan ; Ueckerdt, Falko ; Després, Jacques ; Drouet, Laurent ; Emmerling, Johannes ; Frank, Stefan ; Fricko, Oliver ; Gidden, Matthew ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Huppmann, Daniel ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Fragkiadakis, Kostas ; Gi, Keii ; Keramidas, Kimon ; Köberle, Alexandre C. ; Aleluia Reis, Lara ; Rochedo, Pedro ; Schaeffer, Roberto ; Oshiro, Ken ; Vrontisi, Zoi ; Chen, Wenying ; Iyer, Gokul C. ; Edmonds, Jae ; Kannavou, Maria ; Jiang, Kejun ; Mathur, Ritu ; Safonov, George ; Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma - \ 2020
    Nature Communications 11 (2020)1. - ISSN 2041-1723

    Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.

    Natuur maand voor op schema, volgende week hooikoorts van els
    Vliet, A.J.H. van; Hofhuis, Hidde ; Bron, W.A. ; Weger, L.A. de - \ 2019
    Nature Today
    Door de zeer warme december en januari ligt de ontwikkeling in de natuur een maand voor op schema. Overal wordt de voorlente steeds duidelijker zichtbaar met bloeiende hazelaars, sneeuwklokjes en elzen. De komende week komt de tweede lichting elzenpollen in de lucht. Hooikoortspatiënten en huisartsen dienen daar bedacht op te zijn. We verwachten tot half maart elzenpollen in de lucht.
    The RIO approach: Design and anchoring of sustainable animal husbandry systems
    Elzen, Boelie ; Bos, Bram - \ 2019
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change 145 (2019). - ISSN 0040-1625 - p. 141 - 152.
    Anchoring of sustainable innovations - Animal husbandry - Reflexive Interactive Design (RIO) - Sustainable design - Transition stimulation

    This paper discusses an approach to develop new ‘integrally sustainable’ animal production systems and stimulate their uptake in practice. It consists of a design approach called RIO, and a set of ‘anchoring’ activities to stimulate their uptake in niches and in the regime. In the period 2001–2015 we have applied the approach in various animal production sectors, and adapted and improved it while doing. The general aim of the paper is to assess the applicability of the RIO/anchoring approach to induce sustainability transitions. We conclude that RIO is especially suited for areas characterized by a ‘heterogeneous’ set of sustainability challenges (in our case, environmental burden, animal welfare, public acceptance, profitability). A RIO approach can then render ‘integrally sustainable’ alternatives that generate wide interest in the regime. Anchoring activities can successfully stimulate a variety of initial changes. This does not suffice, however, and a conducive institutional environment is key to facilitate the initial uptake of the novel systems. With relatively simple and cheap financial instruments, governments can help to create such a conducive environment.

    Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways
    Berg, Nicole J. van den; Soest, Heleen L. van; Hof, Andries F. ; Elzen, Michel G.J. den; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Chen, Wenying ; Drouet, Laurent ; Emmerling, Johannes ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Höhne, Niklas ; Kõberle, Alexandre C. ; McCollum, David ; Schaeffer, Roberto ; Shekhar, Swapnil ; Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma ; Vrontisi, Zoi ; Blok, Kornelis - \ 2019
    Climatic Change (2019). - ISSN 0165-0009

    The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay. As the results critically depend on parameter settings, we used the wide authorship from a range of countries included in this paper to determine default settings and sensitivity analyses. Results show that effort-sharing approaches that (i) calculate required reduction targets in carbon budgets (relative to baseline budgets) and/or (ii) take into account historical emissions when determining carbon budgets can lead to (large) negative remaining carbon budgets for developed countries. This is the case for the equal cumulative per capita approach and especially the greenhouse development rights approach. Furthermore, for developed countries, all effort-sharing approaches except grandfathering lead to more stringent budgets than cost-optimal budgets, indicating that cost-optimal approaches do not lead to outcomes that can be regarded as fair according to most effort-sharing approaches.

    Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?
    Elzen, Michel den; Kuramochi, Takeshi ; Höhne, Niklas ; Cantzler, Jasmin ; Esmeijer, Kendall ; Fekete, Hanna ; Fransen, Taryn ; Keramidas, Kimon ; Roelfsema, Mark ; Sha, Fu ; Soest, Heleen van; Vandyck, Toon - \ 2019
    Energy Policy 126 (2019). - ISSN 0301-4215 - p. 238 - 250.
    China - G20 economies - National climate and energy policies - NDCs - Paris Agreement

    Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to a variety of climate actions, including post-2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. This study compares projected GHG emissions in the G20 economies under current climate policies to those under the GHG targets outlined in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It is based on an assessment of official governmental estimates and independent national and global studies. The study concludes that six G20 members (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia and Turkey) are projected to meet their unconditional NDC targets with current policies. Eight members (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Republic of Korea, South Africa and the United States) require further action to achieve their targets. Insufficient information is available for Saudi Arabia, and emission projections for Brazil and Mexico are subject to considerable uncertainty. The study also presents high-level decarbonisation indicators to better understand the current progress towards meeting the NDCs – Saudi Arabia and South Africa were found to continue increasing both emission intensity per unit GDP and emissions per capita under current policies by 2030 from 2015 levels.

    Deliverable 5.2. Scenarios for legume value chain development across Europe : Fostering sustainable legume-based farming systems and agri-feed and food chains in the EU
    Kootstra, A.M.J. ; Elzen, B. ; Schoorlemmer, H.B. ; Visser, C.L.M. de - \ 2018
    Wageningen : LegValue - 27
    In order to reduce its dependency on legume imports (mainly soya bean), which poses a risk for EU livestock production, the European Union wants to promote the development of legume production chains in the EU. The goal of the analysis discussed in this report is to identify a robust package of interventions that, when applied as a strategy, can be used to promote the development of legume value chains under different future conditions. This analysis is to be used as input for the workshop to be held in Roskilde in March 2018. In a scenario analysis using two dimensions – one on economics and one on EU cohesion – we defined four very different scenario’s, or Visions of the Future. We characterise these on three levels: firstly, on a societal level using STEEP methodology, secondly, on the level of the agro-food system, and thirdly, specifically on legumes for food and feed application. We analysed a variety of optional interventions for the promotion of legume value chains forrobustness under the different visions of the future. The exploration described in this report leads to the conclusion that knowledge interventions are the most robust as a strategy implemented to promote the development of legume value chains in the European Union, taking the very different visions of the future into account. It is however also important to realise that in real life implementation of innovations, conditions will not vary as much as they do in the visionscharacterised in this report, and that the act of doing an exploration of possible interventions is an important part of finding a suitable strategy.
    Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples : the ‘good practice policies’ scenario
    Roelfsema, Mark ; Fekete, Hanna ; Höhne, Niklas ; Elzen, Michel den; Forsell, Nicklas ; Kuramochi, Takeshi ; Coninck, Heleen de; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2018
    Climate Policy 18 (2018)9. - ISSN 1469-3062 - p. 1103 - 1113.
    2°C limit - Enhancing ambition - integrated assessment modelling - sector indicators - successful policies
    This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO2e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO2e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances. Key policy insightsConsiderable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.
    Op weg naar de echte prijs, echte waarde en echte winst van voedsel : Een routekaart om te sturen op de maatschappelijke effecten van voedsel
    Groot Ruiz, Adrian de; Baltussen, Willy ; Adelhart Toorop, Renier de; Elzen, Floor van den; Janssen, Bas ; Keeken, Roland van; Logatcheva, Katja ; Martinius, Evelijn ; Ponsioen, Tommie - \ 2018
    Wageningen : Wageningen Economic Research (Wageningen Economic Research rapport 2018-016) - ISBN 9789463437677 - 85
    The effect of vitamin B12 and folic acid supplementation on routine haematological parameters in older people : an individual participant data meta-analysis
    Smelt, Antonia F.H. ; Gussekloo, Jacobijn ; Bermingham, Lynette W. ; Allen, Elizabeth ; Dangour, Alan D. ; Eussen, Simone J.P.M. ; Favrat, Bernard ; Groot, Lisette C.P.G.M. de; Kok, Frans J. ; Kwok, Timothy ; Mangoni, Arduino A. ; Ntaios, George ; Rest, Ondine van de; Seal, Eric ; Vaucher, Paul ; Verhoef, Petra ; Stijnen, Theo ; Elzen, Wendy P.J. Den - \ 2018
    European Journal of Clinical Nutrition 72 (2018)6. - ISSN 0954-3007 - p. 785 - 795.
    Background/objectives: Low vitamin B12 and folate levels in community-dwelling older people are usually corrected with supplements. However, the effect of this supplementation on haematological parameters in older persons is not known. Therefore, we executed a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised placebo-controlled trials (RCTs). Subjects/methods: We performed a systematic search in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane and CENTRAL for RCTs published between January 1950 and April 2016, where community-dwelling elderly (60+ years) who were treated with vitamin B12 or folic acid or placebo. The presence of anaemia was not required. We analysed the data on haematological parameters with a two-stage IPD meta-analysis. Results: We found 494 full papers covering 14 studies. Data were shared by the authors of four RCTs comparing vitamin B12 with placebo (n = 343) and of three RCTs comparing folic acid with placebo (n = 929). We found no effect of vitamin B12 supplementation on haemoglobin (change 0.00 g/dL, 95% CI: −0.19;0.18), and no effect of folic acid supplementation (change −0.09 g/dL, 95% CI: −0.19;0.01). The effects of supplementation on other haematological parameters were similar. The effects did not differ by sex or by age group. Also, no effect was found in a subgroup of patients with anaemia and a subgroup of patients who were treated >4 weeks. Conclusions: Evidence on the effects of supplementation of low concentrations of vitamin B12 and folate on haematological parameters in community-dwelling older people is inconclusive. Further research is needed before firm recommendations can be made concerning the supplementation of vitamin B12 and folate.
    Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets : a comprehensive framework
    Höhne, Niklas ; Fekete, Hanna ; Elzen, Michel G.J. den; Hof, Andries F. ; Kuramochi, Takeshi - \ 2018
    Climate Policy 18 (2018)4. - ISSN 1469-3062 - p. 425 - 441.
    ambition - global stocktake - INDCs - NDCs - Paris agreement - UNFCCC
    One of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries’ proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual assessment approach. We recommend that such a comprehensive ambition assessment framework, employing a large variety of approaches, is used in the future to capture a wide spectrum of perspectives on ambition. POLICY RELEVANCE Assessing the ambition of the national climate proposals is particularly important as the Paris Agreement asks for regular reviews of national contributions, keeping in mind that countries raise their ambition over time. Such an assessment will be an important part of the regular global stocktake that will take place every five years, starting with a ‘light’ version in 2018. However, comprehensive methods to assess the proposals are lacking. This article provides such a comprehensive assessment framework.
    Exploring fair and ambitious mitigation contributions under the Paris Agreement goals
    Pan, Xunzhang ; Elzen, Michel den; Höhne, Niklas ; Teng, Fei ; Wang, Lining - \ 2017
    Environmental Science & Policy 74 (2017). - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 49 - 56.
    Climate change - Effort-sharing - Fairness - NDCs - Paris Agreement
    In order to achieve the Paris Agreement goals of keeping the temperature rise well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, all countries would need to make fair and ambitious contributions to reducing emissions. A vast majority of countries have adopted reduction targets by 2030 in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). There are many alternative ways to analyze the fairness of national mitigation contributions. This article uses a model framework based on six equity principles of effort-sharing, to allocate countries’ reduction targets under global emissions scenarios consistent with meeting the Paris climate goals. It further compares these allocations with the NDCs. The analysis shows that most countries need to adopt more ambitious reduction targets by 2030 to meet 2 °C, and even more for 1.5 °C. In the context of 2 °C, the NDCs of the United States of America and the European Union lack ambition with respect to the approaches that emphasize responsibility; China's NDC projection falls short of satisfying any approach in 2030. In the context of 1.5 °C, only India, by implementing its most ambitious efforts by 2030, could be in line with most equity principles. For most countries, the NDCs would use most of their allowed emissions space for the entire 21 st century by 2030, posing a major challenge to transform to a pathway consistent with their fair contributions in the long-term.
    AgroEcological Transitions: Changes and breakthroughs in the making
    Mierlo, B.C. van; Augustyn, Anna Maria ; Elzen, B. ; Barbier, Marc - \ 2017
    In: AgroEcological Transitions / Elzen, Boelie, Augustyn, Anna Maria, Barbier, Marc, van Mierlo, Barbara, Wageningen University & Research - ISBN 9789463431149 - p. 9 - 16.
    Creating Niches by applying Reflexive Interactive Design
    Bremmer, B. ; Bos, A.P. - \ 2017
    In: AgroEcological Transitions / Elzen, Boelie, Augustyn, Anna Maria, Barbier, Marc, van Mierlo, Barbara, Wageningen University & Research - ISBN 9789463431149 - p. 19 - 34.
    Portfolio of promises: Designing and testing a new tool to stimulate transition towards sustainable agriculture
    Elzen, B. ; Janssen, A.P.H.M. ; Bos, A.P. - \ 2017
    In: AgroEcological Transitions / Elzen, Boelie, Augustyn, Anna Maria, Barbier, Marc, van Mierlo, Barbara, Wageningen University & Research - ISBN 9789463431149 - p. 143 - 161.
    Role of NGOs in system innovation towards animal friendly pork production in the Netherlands
    Buurma, J.S. ; Hoes, A.C. ; Greef, K.H. de; Beekman, V. - \ 2017
    In: AgroEcological Transitions / Elzen, Boelie, Augustyn, Anna Maria, Barbier, Marc, van Mierlo, Barbara, Wageningen University & Research - ISBN 9789463431149 - p. 162 - 175.
    Reflexivity, reflection and learning in the context of system innovation: Prying loose entangled concepts
    Beers, Pieter Jelle ; Mierlo, B.C. van - \ 2017
    In: AgroEcological Transitions / Elzen, Boelie, Augustyn, Anna Maria, Barbier, Marc, van Mierlo, Barbara, Wageningen University & Research - ISBN 9789463431149 - p. 243 - 256.
    Conclusion: a Curiosity Cabinet of Agro-Ecological Transition Studies
    Barbier, Marc ; Elzen, B. ; Mierlo, B.C. van; Augustyn, Anna Maria - \ 2017
    In: AgroEcological Transitions / Elzen, Boelie, Augustyn, Anna Maria, Barbier, Marc, van Mierlo, Barbara, Wageningen University & Research - ISBN 9789463431149 - p. 283 - 295.
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