Records 1 - 20 / 1214
SARS-CoV-2 infection in farmed minks, the Netherlands, April and May 2020
Oreshkova, Nadia ; Molenaar, Robert Jan ; Vreman, Sandra ; Harders, Frank ; Oude Munnink, Bas B. ; Hakze-van der Honing, Renate W. ; Gerhards, Nora ; Tolsma, Paulien ; Bouwstra, Ruth ; Sikkema, Reina S. ; Tacken, Mirriam G.J. ; Rooij, Myrna M.T. de; Weesendorp, Eefke ; Engelsma, Marc Y. ; Bruschke, Christianne J.M. ; Smit, Lidwien A.M. ; Koopmans, Marion ; Poel, Wim H.M. van der; Stegeman, Arjan - \ 2020
Eurosurveillance 25 (2020)23. - ISSN 1025-496X
interstitial pneumonia - mink - SARS-CoV-2 - transmission
Respiratory disease and increased mortality occurred in minks on two farms in the Netherlands, with interstitial pneumonia and SARS-CoV-2 RNA in organ and swab samples. On both farms, at least one worker had coronavirus disease-associated symptoms before the outbreak. Variations in mink-derived viral genomes showed between-mink transmission and no infection link between the farms. Inhalable dust contained viral RNA, indicating possible exposure of workers. One worker is assumed to have attracted the virus from mink.
The montane multifunctional landscape: How stakeholders in a biosphere reserve derive benefits and address trade-offs in ecosystem service supply
Heinze, Alan ; Bongers, Frans ; Ramírez Marcial, Neptalí ; García Barrios, Luis ; Kuyper, Thomas W. - \ 2020
Ecosystem Services 44 (2020). - ISSN 2212-0416
Ecosystem service assessments - Local stakeholders - Multifunctional landscapes - Natural protected areas - Trade-offs
Ecosystem service (ES) assessments, which make an explicit link between nature and people's well-being, can support the management of natural protected areas that face complex and persistent sustainability challenges. We present a case study of ES supply in a biosphere reserve community in southern Mexico. We aimed to identify stakeholder-relevant ES and to analyse trade-offs between them. After engaging local stakeholders, we conducted a biophysical assessment of ES supply and associations across four different land uses. Closed forests and riparian areas, which occurred in different parts of the landscape, supplied high levels of multiple ES. Furthermore, co-produced farming goods and services that supported local livelihoods and conservation-oriented ecosystem services coincided in these four habitats. Together, these habitats provided a diverse array of ES across the landscape, indicating that stakeholders benefited from a multifunctional landscape. At the same time significant trade-offs were found in the supply of forage cover against most other ES, especially tree-based goods and services. These trade-offs revealed conflicts between agricultural land and neighbouring open forests and riparian areas, as well as opposed service demands among beneficiary groups. To address these trade-offs, stakeholders agreed on enhancing forest benefits in order to support both local livelihoods and conservation goals.
Will dairy cattle production in West Africa be challenged by heat stress in the future?
Rahimi, Jaber ; Mutua, John Yumbya ; Notenbaert, An M.O. ; Dieng, Diarra ; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus - \ 2020
Climatic Change (2020). - ISSN 0165-0009
Climate change - Dairy cattle - THI - West Africa
This study focuses on heat stress conditions for dairy cattle production in West Africa under current and future climatic conditions. After testing the accuracy of the dynamically downscaled climate datasets for simulating the historical daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and relative humidity (RH) in West Africa for 50 meteorological stations, we used the dataset for calculating the temperature-humidity index (THI), i.e., an index indicating heat stress for dairy cattle on a daily scale. Calculations were made for the historical period (1981–2010) using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, and for two future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) using climate predictions of the GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Here, we show that during the period from 1981 to 2010 for > 1/5 of the region of West Africa, the frequency of severe/danger heat events per year, i.e., events that result in significant decreases in productive and reproductive performances, increased from 11 to 29–38 days (significant at 95% confidence level). Most obvious changes were observed for the eastern and southeastern parts. Under future climate conditions periods with severe/danger heat stress events will increase further as compared with the historical period by 5–22% depending on the GCM used. Moreover, the average length of periods with severe/danger heat stress is expected to increase from ~ 3 days in the historical period to ~ 4–7 days by 2021–2050 and even to up to 10 days by 2071–2100. Based on the average results of three GCMs, by 2071–2100, around 22% of dairy cattle population currently living in this area is expected to experience around 70 days more of severe/danger heat stress (compare with the historical period), especially in the southern half of West Africa. The result is alarming, as it shows that dairy production systems in West Africa are jeopardized at large scale by climate change and that depending on the GCM used, milk production might decrease by 200–400 kg/year by 2071–2100 in around 1, 7, or 11%. Our study calls for the development of improved dairy cattle production systems with higher adaptive capacity in order to deal with expected future heat stress conditions.
Capturing variation in floral shape; a virtual3D based morphospace for Pelargonium
Kerke, S.J. van de; Engelenhoven, Tanja van; Es, van, Anne ; Schat, Laura ; Son, Lisa van; Vink, Sverre ; Hemerik, A. ; Velzen, R. van; Schranz, M.E. ; Bakker, F.T. - \ 2020
PeerJ PrePrints 8 (2020). - ISSN 2167-9843
Variation in floral shapes has long fascinated biologists and its modelling enables testing of evolutionary hypotheses. Recent comparative studies that explore floral shape have largely ignored 3D floral shape. We propose quantifying floral shape by using geometric morphometrics on a virtual3D model reconstructed from 2D photographical data and demonstrate its performance in capturing shape variation.
This approach offers unique benefits to complement established imaging techniques (i) by enabling adequate coverage of the potential morphospace of large and diverse flowering-plant clades; (ii) by circumventing asynchronicity in anthesis of different floral parts; and (iii) by incorporating variation in copy number of floral organs within structures. We demonstrate our approach by analysing 90 florally-diverse species of the Southern African genus Pelargonium (Geraniaceae). We quantify Pelargonium floral shapes using 117 landmarks and show similarities in reconstructed morphospaces for nectar tube, corolla (2D datasets), and a combined virtual3D dataset.
Our results indicate that Pelargonium species differ in floral shape, which can also vary extensively within a species. PCA results of the reconstructed virtual3D floral models are highly congruent with the separate 2D morphospaces, indicating it is an accurate, virtual, representation of floral shape. Through our approach, we find that adding the third dimension to the data is crucial to accurately interpret the manner of, as well as levels of, shape variation in flowers.
Drivers of decoupling and recoupling of crop and livestock systems at farm and territorial scales
Garrett, Rachael D. ; Ryschawy, Julie ; Bell, Lindsay W. ; Cortner, Owen ; Ferreira, Joice ; Garik, Anna Victoria N. ; Gil, Juliana D.B. ; Klerkx, Laurens ; Moraine, Marc ; Peterson, Caitlin A. ; Reis, Júlio César Dos; Valentim, Judson F. - \ 2020
Ecology and Society 25 (2020)1. - ISSN 1708-3087
Innovation - Integrated crop livestock systems - Mixed farming systems - Socio-technical transitions - Sustainable agriculture - Technology adoption
Crop and livestock production have become spatially decoupled in existing commercial agricultural regimes throughout the world. These segregated high input production systems contribute to some of the world’s most pressing sustainability challenges, including climate change, nutrient imbalances, water pollution, biodiversity decline, and increasingly precarious rural livelihoods. There is substantial evidence that by closing the loop in nutrient and energy cycles, recoupling crop and livestock systems at farm and territorial scales can help reduce the environmental externalities associated with conventional commercial farming without declines in profitability or yields. Yet such “integrated” crop and livestock systems remain rare as a proportion of global agricultural area. Based on an interdisciplinary workshop and additional literature review, we provide a comprehensive historical and international perspective on why integrated crop and livestock systems have declined in most regions and what conditions have fostered their persistence and reemergence in others. We also identify levers for encouraging the reemergence of integrated crop and livestock systems worldwide. We conclude that a major disruption of the current regime would be needed to foster crop-livestock reintegration, including a redesign of research programs, credit systems, payments for ecosystem services, insurance programs, and food safety regulations to focus on whole farm outcomes and the creation of a circular economy. An expansion of the number of integrated crop and livestock systems field trials and demonstrations and efforts to brand integrated crop and livestock systems as a form of sustainable agriculture through the development of eco-labels could also improve adoption, but would likely be unsuccessful at encouraging wide-scale change without a more radical transformation of the research and policy landscape.
Greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands 1990-2018 : National Inventory Report 2020
Ruyssenaars, P.G. ; Coenen, P.W.H.G. ; Rienstra, J.D. ; Zijlema, P.J. ; Arets, E.J.M.M. ; Baas, K. ; Dröge, R. ; Geilenkirchen, G. ; Hoen, M. 't; Honig, E. ; Huet, B. van; Huis, E.P. van; Koch, W.W.R. ; Lagerwerf, L.L. ; Molder, R.A. te; Montfoort, J.A. ; Vonk, J. ; Zanten, M.C. van - \ 2020
Bilthoen : National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) - 528 p.
Total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Netherlands in 2018 decreased by approximately 2.7 percent, in comparison with 2017 emissions. This decrease was mainly the result of decreased coal combustion for energy and heat production.In 2018, total GHG emissions (including indirect CO2 emissions and excluding emissions from Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF)) in the Netherlands amounted to 188.2 Tg CO2 eq. This is approximately 15.1 percent below the emissions in the base year 1990 (221.7 Tg CO2 eq.).CO2 emissions in 2018 were 1.6 percent below the level in the base year. The total of the emissions of methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases (CH4, N2O and F-gases) was reduced by more than 50% over this period.This report documents the Netherlands’ annual submission for 2020 of its GHG emissions inventory in accordance with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006) prescribed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol (KP) and the European Union’s Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism.This report includes explanations of observed trends in emissions, an assessment of the sources with the highest contribution to total national emissions (key sources) and a description of the uncertainty in the emissions es timates. Estimation methods, data sources and emission factors (EFs) are described for each source category, and there is also a description of the quality assurance system and the verification activities performed on the data. The report also describes changes in methodologies since the previous submission (NIR 2019), the results of recalculations and planned improvements.
Endocrine activities of phthalate alternatives; Assessing the safety profile of furan dicarboxylic acid esters using a panel of human cell based reporter gene assays
Vugt-Lussenburg, Barbara M.A. Van; Es, Daan S. Van; Naderman, Matthijs ; Notre, Jerome Le; Klis, Frits Van Der; Brouwer, Abraham ; Burg, Bart Van Der - \ 2020
Green Chemistry 22 (2020)6. - ISSN 1463-9262 - p. 1873 - 1883.
FDCA esters are highly relevant biobased alternatives for currently used benzene dicarboxylic acid esters. Despite all the developments on 2,5-FDCA applications, to the best of our knowledge thus far no toxicological data were available for 2,5-FDCA esters. In the present study we aimed to fill this gap, by using an in vitro reporter gene assay approach to compare the activity profile of commonly used phthalates to that of their furan-based counterparts. The assay selection was aimed at the detection of endocrine activity, since several phthalates are heavily scrutinised for their endocrine disrupting properties. However, to avoid missing other relevant toxicological endpoints, several assays able to detect various forms of cellular stress were also included in the panel. The results showed that the (ortho)benzene dicarboxylic acid esters were predominantly active on several of the endocrine assays. In comparison, six of the seven furan dicarboxylic acid based diesters tested here showed no activity in any of the 13 assays used. Only the isobutyl derivative DIBF showed moderate estrogenic activity on one assay, compared to much more pronounced activities on four assays for the ortho-phthalate analogue. Overall, the results presented in this paper are a strong indication that 2,5-FDCA based diesters in general are not only technically viable alternatives to phthalates, but also offer significant toxicological benefits, which supports a non-regrettable substitution.
City-Region Food Systems and Second Tier Cities: From Garden Cities to Garden Regions
Gaast, K.H. van der; Leeuwen, E.S. van; Wertheim-Heck, S.C.O. - \ 2020
Sustainability 12 (2020)6. - ISSN 2071-1050 - 14 p.
city-region food systems - second tier cities - Garden Regions - Almere
Theory and practice show that second-tier cities can play an important role in linking the urban and the rural. Second-tier cities are the middle ground of the urban system. The smaller spatial scale of second-tier cities, and their often-stronger connections with the rural hinterland can potentially enable a more sustainable food system. In this paper, we argue that the extent to which the benefits ascribed to the re-localisation of food can be achieved greatly depends on the contextual specifics of the second-tier city and the region in which it is embedded. Furthermore, we argue that to reach resilient, healthy and environmentally friendly city region food systems, three contextual elements need to be considered in their mutual coherence: (1) the historical development of the second-tier city and the region; (2) the proximity of food production to the second-tier city; (3) the scale and reach of the city region’s food system. We use the case-study of the Dutch city Almere to show how (a controlled) growth of cities can be combined with maintaining (or even increasing) the strength of adjacent rural areas. Such cities can play a role in creating Garden Regions: regions that foster healthy, sustainable and resilient food systems and that do not just connect urban and rural regions, but also connect city region food systems to national and global markets.
De toekomst van de Nederlandse Es waarborgen met een nieuwe collectie essenklonen
Buiteveld, Joukje ; Copini, Paul - \ 2020
Including diverse knowledges and worldviews in environmental assessment and planning: : the Brazilian Amazon Kaxinawá Nova Olinda Indigenous Land case
Ayaviri Matuk, F. ; Behagel, J.H. ; Simas, Felipe ; Amaral, Eufran Ferreira Do ; Haverroth, Moacir ; Turnhout, E. - \ 2020
Ecosystems and People 16 (2020)1. - ISSN 2639-5916 - p. 95 - 113.
The concepts of ‘ecosystem services’ (ES) and ‘nature’s contributions to people’ (NCP) inform environmental frameworks that set out to include Indigenous and Local Knowledge systems (ILK) and worldviews in policy and planning processes. These frameworks aim to enhance biodiversity conservation and human well-being in a legitimate and effective way. In this article, we explore how the concept of People’s Contributions to Nature (PCN) is complementary to NCP. We use it to investigate challenges that planners and locals face in realizing the legitimate inclusion of diverse knowledges and worldviwes that account for people and ecosystems in a relational way. We introduce a case study where planners drew on ES and NCP and used participatory methods to implement a REDD+ policy in the Kaxinawá Nova Olinda Indigenous Land (Acre-Brazil). We find that both Kaxinawás and planners emphasize both NCP and PCN in their discourses. Nevertheless, differences between knowledge systems and disciplines, uneven power relations between Kaxinawás and planners, and an under-consideration of PCN by global frameworks challenge the legitimate inclusion of the Kaxinawá knowlege and worldviews to craft assessment and planning. We conclude that by explicitly addressing these challenges, science-policy interfaces can further advance knowledge legitimacy and policy effectiveness.
Ecosystem services or nature's contributions? Reasons behind different interpretations in Latin America
Pires, Aliny P.F. ; Padgurschi, Maíra C.G. ; Castro, Paula D. de; Scarano, Fabio R. ; Strassburg, Bernardo ; Joly, Carlos A. ; Watson, Robert T. ; Groot, Rudolf de - \ 2020
Ecosystem Services 42 (2020). - ISSN 2212-0416
Ecosystem services concept - Indigenous and local knowledge - Latin America and the Caribbean - Nature's contribution to people - People-nature relationships - Quantitative methods
People depend on nature in multiple ways and there is increasing concern about how the current unsustainable use of natural resources will compromise human well-being. In this context, there is a debate about the usefulness of the terms ecosystem services (ES) and nature's contributions to people (NCP) in addressing this problem, but so far no research has been dedicated to investigating the reasons behind this. We, therefore, performed a data-based study to explore the potential explanations for the use and perceptions of the differences between the ES and NCP terms. Based on a questionnaire among 150 participants in the ESP Latin America and the Caribbean conference in 2018, we demonstrate that the choice for using one or both terms is related to the perception of the differences between them and to specific professional traits. We detected that researchers that use quantitative methods are predominantly inclined to use ES while researchers using qualitative methods use the NCP-term. Despite the predominant preference for one of the two terms, a considerable percentage of researchers used both. Our results suggest that rather than emphasizing perceived conflicts between ES and NCP terms, they can be used in a complementary way and have the potential to reach multiple audiences.
Genome-guided analysis allows the identification of novel physiological traits in Trichococcus species
Strepis, Nikolaos ; Naranjo, Henry D. ; Meier-Kolthoff, Jan ; Göker, Markus ; Shapiro, Nicole ; Kyrpides, Nikos ; Klenk, Hans Peter ; Schaap, Peter J. ; Stams, Alfons J.M. ; Sousa, Diana Z. - \ 2020
BMC Genomics 21 (2020)1. - ISSN 1471-2164
1,3-propanediol - Comparative genomics - Halophilic - Protein domains - Psychrophilic
Background: The genus Trichococcus currently contains nine species: T. flocculiformis, T. pasteurii, T. palustris, T. collinsii, T. patagoniensis, T. ilyis, T. paludicola, T. alkaliphilus, and T. shcherbakoviae. In general, Trichococcus species can degrade a wide range of carbohydrates. However, only T. pasteurii and a non-characterized strain of Trichococcus, strain ES5, have the capacity of converting glycerol to mainly 1,3-propanediol. Comparative genomic analysis of Trichococcus species provides the opportunity to further explore the physiological potential and uncover novel properties of this genus. Results: In this study, a genotype-phenotype comparative analysis of Trichococcus strains was performed. The genome of Trichococcus strain ES5 was sequenced and included in the comparison with the other nine type strains. Genes encoding functions related to e.g. the utilization of different carbon sources (glycerol, arabinan and alginate), antibiotic resistance, tolerance to low temperature and osmoregulation could be identified in all the sequences analysed. T. pasteurii and Trichococcus strain ES5 contain a operon with genes encoding necessary enzymes for 1,3-PDO production from glycerol. All the analysed genomes comprise genes encoding for cold shock domains, but only five of the Trichococcus species can grow at 0 °C. Protein domains associated to osmoregulation mechanisms are encoded in the genomes of all Trichococcus species, except in T. palustris, which had a lower resistance to salinity than the other nine studied Trichococcus strains. Conclusions: Genome analysis and comparison of ten Trichococcus strains allowed the identification of physiological traits related to substrate utilization and environmental stress resistance (e.g. to cold and salinity). Some substrates were used by single species, e.g. alginate by T. collinsii and arabinan by T. alkaliphilus. Strain ES5 may represent a subspecies of Trichococcus flocculiformis and contrary to the type strain (DSM 2094T), is able to grow on glycerol with the production of 1,3-propanediol.
A desertification risk assessment decision support tool (DRAST)
Karavitis, Christos A. ; Tsesmelis, Demetrios E. ; Oikonomou, Panagiotis D. ; Kairis, Orestis ; Kosmas, Constantinos ; Fassouli, Vassilia ; Ritsema, Coen ; Hessel, Rudi ; Jetten, Victor ; Moustakas, Nikolaos ; Todorovic, Branislav ; Skondras, Nikolaos A. ; Vasilakou, Constantina G. ; Alexandris, Stavros ; Kolokytha, Elpida ; Stamatakos, Demetrios V. ; Stricevic, Ruzica ; Chatzigeorgiadis, Emmanuel ; Brandt, Jane ; Geeson, Nicky ; Quaranta, Giovanni - \ 2020
Catena 187 (2020). - ISSN 0341-8162
Decision support systems - Desertification assessment - Desertification indicators - Desertification risk - Expert systems - Land and water resources management - Strategies to combat desertification - Web-based systems
Desertification constantly and diachronically manifested itself as one of the most critical environmental issues to be confronted and mitigated by society. This work presents the development of a land desertification risk Expert System (ES) for assessing the application of different land management practices by utilizing indicators through a desertification risk index (DRI). The DRI was developed by a desertification risk assessment framework generated in seventeen study sites worldwide. This assessment was performed through a methodological process incorporating indicators suited to a plethora of physical, social and economic characteristics. Then, the Desertification Risk Assessment Support Tool (DRAST) was created using the indicators’ methodology in an effort to efficiently handle complexity and variability in soil and water resources management. To demonstrate DRAST's applicability, an independent data base of indicators was used, and the tool was employed in all the seventeen study sites. Five indicative sites, experiencing different desertification processes, are selected as key representatives of the methodological process implementation. Overall, the assessment depicted that DRAST performs appropriately in demarcating existing desertification risk as well as in portraying how the desertification risk changes after the application of pertinent mitigation actions. Thus, the current approach may lead towards a standardized procedure, which is using the advantages of information technology to assess the effectiveness of various land management practices and facilitate stakeholders and decision-makers to produce and implement timely and appropriate responses to combat desertification.
The role of metabolism in the developmental toxicity of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon-containing extracts of petroleum substances
Kamelia, Lenny ; Haan, Laura de; Spenkelink, Bert ; Bruyneel, Ben ; Ketelslegers, Hans B. ; Boogaard, Peter J. ; Rietjens, Ivonne M.C.M. - \ 2020
Journal of Applied Toxicology 40 (2020)3. - ISSN 0260-437X - p. 330 - 341.
biotransformation - embryonic stem cell test - petroleum substances - polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons - prenatal developmental toxicity - UVCBs
In vitro assays presently used for prenatal developmental toxicity (PDT) testing only assess the embryotoxic potential of parent substances and not that of potentially embryotoxic metabolites. Here we combined a biotransformation system, using hamster liver microsomes, with the ES-D3 cell differentiation assay of the embryonic stem cell test (EST) to compare the in vitro PDT potency of two 5-ring polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) and dibenz[a,h]anthracene (DBA), and dimethyl sulfoxide extracts from five PAH-containing petroleum substances (PS) and a gas-to-liquid base oil (GTLb), with and without bioactivation. In the absence of bioactivation, DBA, but not BaP, inhibited the differentiation of ES-D3 cells into beating cardiomyocytes in a concentration-dependent manner. Upon bioactivation, BaP induced in vitro PDT, while its major metabolite 3-hydroxybenzo[a]pyrene was shown to be active in the EST as well. This means BaP needs biotransformation to exert its embryotoxic effects. GTLb extracts tested negative in the EST, with and without bioactivation. The PS-induced PDT in the EST was not substantially changed following bioactivation, implying that metabolism may not play a crucial role for the PS extracts under study to exert the in vitro PDT effects. Altogether, these results indicate that although some PAH require bioactivation to induce PDT, some do not and this latter appears to hold for the (majority of) the PS constituents responsible for the in vitro PDT of these complex substances.
Spatial quantification to examine the effectiveness of payments for ecosystem services: A case study of Costa Rica's Pago de Servicios Ambientales
Havinga, Ilan ; Hein, Lars ; Vega-Araya, Mauricio ; Languillaume, Antoine - \ 2020
Ecological Indicators 108 (2020). - ISSN 1470-160X
Carbon storage - Conservation - Ecosystem accounting - Ecosystem services - Machine learning - Payments for ecosystem services
Payments for ecosystem services (PES) have been developed as a policy instrument to help safeguard the contributions of ecosystems to human well-being. A critical measure of a programme's effectiveness is whether it is generating an additional supply of ecosystem services (ES). So far, there has been limited analysis of PES programmes based on the actual supply of ES. In line with ecosystem accounting principles, we spatially quantified three ES recognised by Costa Rica's Pago de Servicios Ambientales (PSA) programme: carbon storage, soil erosion control and habitat suitability for biodiversity as a cultural ES. We used the machine learning algorithm random forest to model carbon storage, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to model soil erosion control and Maxent to model habitat suitability. The additional effect of the PSA programme on carbon storage was examined using linear regression. Forested land was found to store 235.3 Mt of carbon, control for 148 Mt yr−1 of soil erosion and contain 762,891 ha of suitable habitat for three iconic but threatened species. PSA areas enrolled in the programme in both 2011 and 2013 were found to store an additional 9 tonC ha−1 on average. As well as enabling a direct quantification of additionality, spatial distribution analysis can help administrators target high-value areas, confirm the conditional supply of ES and support the monetary valuation of ES. Ultimately, this can help improve the social efficiency of payments by enabling a comparison of societal costs and benefits.
Uncertainty in ecosystem services maps : The case of carbon stocks in the Brazilian Amazon forest using regression analysis
Clec’h, Solen Le; Dufour, Simon ; Bucheli, Janic ; Grimaldi, Michel ; Huber, Robert ; Souza Miranda, Izildinha de; Mitja, Danielle ; Silva Costa, Luiz Gonzaga ; Oszwald, Johan - \ 2019
Wadden Sea Ecosystem 4 (2019). - ISSN 0946-896X
Deforestation - Ecosystem services - Prediction intervals - Reliability - Statistical modelling - Variability
Ecosystem Service (ES) mapping has become a key tool in scientific assessments of human-nature interactions and is being increasingly used in environmental planning and policy-making. However, the associated epistemic uncertainty underlying these maps often is not systematically considered. This paper proposes a basic procedure to present areas with lower statistical reliability in a map of an ES indicator, the vegetation carbon stock, when extrapolating field data to larger case study regions. To illustrate our approach, we use regression analyses to model the spatial distribution of vegetation carbon stock in the Brazilian Amazon forest in the State of Pará. In our analysis, we used field data measurements for the carbon stock in three study sites as the response variable and various land characteristics derived from remote sensing as explanatory variables for the ES indicator. We performed regression methods to map the carbon stocks and calculated three indicators of reliability: RMSE-Root-mean-square-error, R -coefficient of determination - from an out-of-sample validation and prediction intervals. We obtained a map of carbon stocks and made explicit its associated uncertainty using a general indicator of reliability and a map presenting the areas where our prediction is the most uncertain. Finally, we highlighted the role of environmental factors on the range of uncertainty. The results have two implications. (1) Mapping prediction interval indicates areas where the map’s reliability is the highest. This information increases the usefulness of ES maps in environmental planning and governance. (2) In the case of the studied indicator, the reliability of our prediction is very dependent on land cover type, on the site location and its biophysical, socioeconomic and political characteristics. A better understanding of the relationship between carbon stock and land-use classes would increase the reliability of the maps. Results of our analysis help to direct future research and fieldwork and to prevent decision-making based on unreliable maps.
Optimal strategies for ecosystem services provision in Amazonian production forests
Piponiot, Camille ; Rutishauser, Ervan ; Derroire, Géraldine ; Putz, Francis E. ; Sist, Plinio ; West, Thales A.P. ; Descroix, Laurent ; Guedes, Marcelino Carneiro ; Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N. ; Kanashiro, Milton ; Mazzei, Lucas ; Oliveira, Marcus Vinicio Neves D'; Pena Claros, Marielos ; Rodney, Ken ; Ruschel, Ademir R. ; Souza, Cintia Rodrigues De; Vidal, Edson ; Wortel, Verginia ; Hérault, Bruno - \ 2019
Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019)12. - ISSN 1748-9318
Amazonia - Biodiversity - Carbon - Ecosystem services - Multi-criteria optimisation - Selective logging - Timber production
Although tropical forests harbour most of the terrestrial carbon and biological diversity on Earth they continue to be deforested or degraded at high rates. In Amazonia, the largest tropical forest on Earth, a sixth of the remaining natural forests is formally dedicated to timber extraction through selective logging. Reconciling timber extraction with the provision of other ecosystem services (ES) remains a major challenge for forest managers and policy-makers. This study applies a spatial optimisation of logging in Amazonian production forests to analyse potential trade-offs between timber extraction and recovery, carbon storage, and biodiversity conservation. Current logging regulations with unique cutting cycles result in sub-optimal ES-use efficiency. Long-term timber provision would require the adoption of a land-sharing strategy that involves extensive low-intensity logging, although high transport and road-building costs might make this approach economically unattractive. By contrast, retention of carbon and biodiversity would be enhanced by a land-sparing strategy restricting high-intensive logging to designated areas such as the outer fringes of the region. Depending on management goals and societal demands, either choice will substantially influence the future of Amazonian forests. Overall, our results highlight the need for revaluation of current logging regulations and regional cooperation among Amazonian countries to enhance coherent and trans-boundary forest management.
Archetyping shared socioeconomic pathways across scales: An application to central Asia and European case studies
Pedde, Simona ; Kok, Kasper ; Hölscher, Katharina ; Oberlack, Christoph ; Harrison, Paula A. ; Leemans, Rik - \ 2019
Ecology and Society 24 (2019)4. - ISSN 1708-3087
Multiscale scenarios - Narratives - Scenario archetypes - Shared socioeconomic pathways - Worldviews
The complex interactions of drivers represented in scenarios and climate change impacts across scales have led to the development of multiscale scenarios. Since the recent development of global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), which have started being downscaled to lower scales, the potential of scenarios to be relevant for decision making and facilitate appreciation and inclusion of different perspectives has been increasing, compared with a single-scale global scenario set. However, in practice, quantitative downscaling of global scenarios results in narratives that are compressed from the global level to fit the local context to enhance consistency between global and local scales. We brought forward the concept of scenario archetypes to analyze multiscale SSP scenario narratives and highlight important diverging assumptions within the same archetype. Our methodology applied scenario archetypes both as typologies, to allocate specific cases of scenarios into existing scenario archetypes, and building blocks, conceptualized with worldviews from cultural theory. Although global SSPs generally match existing archetypes and tend to be well defined, the socially unequal SSPs at subglobal scales are more nuanced, and dominant worldviews are much less straighforward to interpret than in global scenarios. The closest match was the great transition–sustainability (SSP1) archetype, whereas the most divergent was the market forces– fossil fuel development (SSP5) archetype. Overall, our results highlight the need to improve uptake of bottom-up approaches in global scenarios to improve appreciation of different perspectives as sought after in multiscale scenarios.
How does nature contribute to human mobility? A conceptual framework and qualitative analysis
Wiederkehr, Charlotte ; Schröter, Matthias ; Adams, Helen ; Seppelt, Ralf ; Hermans, Kathleen - \ 2019
Ecology and Society 24 (2019)4. - ISSN 1708-3087
Bangladesh - Ethiopia - Immobility - Mobility - Nature’s contributions to people - Place attachment
Different types of mobility are known as longstanding strategies used by humans to deal with environmental pressure. Immobility is relevant in this context as population groups may be at considerable risk but lacking the capacity or willingness to move. Despite significant advances in this research field, grasping especially the subjective dimension of people’s migration decision remains challenging. Moreover, the conceptualization of cultural factors in this context has received rather marginal attention thus far. In light of this, we propose a framework that integrates the novel concept of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) with migration theory, in particular the triad of migration need, ability, and aspiration. NCP goes beyond the popular notion of ecosystem services by conceiving nature-society relations in a more inclusive way with culture being a key element of these. Combined with migration need, ability, and aspiration, we argue that this approach offers a valuable nuanced perspective on nature-mobility interactions, including cultural aspects of natural resource use and varying degrees of agency related to mobility decision making. We apply the framework to two archetypal climate-related migration situations, southwestern coastal Bangladesh and the northern Ethiopian highlands, to delineate the diverse mechanisms through which environmental change shapes population movement in highly resource-dependent livelihoods. We show that based on the analyzed case studies most links can be drawn between material and regulating NCP and migration need, and that nonenvironmental factors play a crucial role in mediating nature’s contributions to human mobility. More knowledge is needed though in particular on the influence of nonmaterial NCP on mobility decision making and on migration aspirations in general to better account for important cultural factors. We formulate a number of hypotheses and questions relevant for guiding future research that can inform policy interventions.
Towards an Industrial Process for Au-Catalyzed Carbohydrate Oxidations: Evaluation of Batch- vs. Continuous Reactors
Klis, Frits van der; Gootjes, Linda ; Haveren, Jacco van; Es, Daan van; Bitter, Harry - \ 2019