Mapping land use changes resulting from biofuel production and the effect of mitigation measures
Hilst, Floor Van Der; Verstegen, Judith A. ; Woltjer, Geert ; Smeets, Edward M.W. ; Faaij, Andre P.C. - \ 2018
Global change biology Bioenergy 10 (2018)11. - ISSN 1757-1693 - p. 804 - 824.
Many of the sustainability concerns of bioenergy are related to direct or indirect land use change (LUC ) resulting from bioenergy feedstock production. The environmental and socio‐economic impacts of LUC highly depend on the site‐specific biophysical and socio‐economic conditions. The objective of this study is to spatiotemporally assess the potential LUC dynamics resulting from an increased biofuel demand, the related greenhouse gas (GHG ) emissions, and the potential effect of LUC mitigation measures. This assessment is demonstrated for LUC dynamics in Brazil towards 2030, considering an increase in the global demand for bioethanol as well as other agricultural commodities. The potential effects of three LUC mitigation measures (increased agricultural productivity, shift to second‐generation ethanol, and strict conservation policies) are evaluated by using a scenario approach. The novel modelling framework developed consists of the global Computable General Equilibrium model MAGNET , the spatiotemporal land use allocation model PLUC , and a GIS ‐based carbon module. The modelling simulations illustrate where LUC as a result of an increased global ethanol demand (+26 × 109 L ethanol production in Brazil) is likely to occur. When no measures are taken, sugar cane production is projected to expand mostly at the expense of agricultural land which subsequently leads to the loss of natural vegetation (natural forest and grass and shrubland) in the Cerrado and Amazon. The related losses of above and below ground biomass and soil organic carbon result in the average emission of 26 g CO 2‐eq/MJ bioethanol. All LUC mitigation measures show potential to reduce the loss of natural vegetation (18%–96%) as well as the LUC ‐related GHG emissions (7%–60%). Although there are several uncertainties regarding the exact location and magnitude of LUC and related GHG emissions, this study shows that the implementation of LUC mitigation measures could have a substantial contribution to the reduction of LUC ‐related emissions of bioethanol. However, an integrated approach targeting all land uses is required to obtain substantial and sustained LUC ‐related GHG emission reductions in general.
On the macro-economic impact of bioenergy and biochemicals – Introducing advanced bioeconomy sectors into an economic modelling framework with a case study for the Netherlands
Meijl, H. van; Tsiropoulos, I. ; Bartelings, H. ; Hoefnagels, R. ; Smeets, E. ; Tabeau, A. ; Faaij, A. - \ 2018
Biomass and Bioenergy 108 (2018). - ISSN 0961-9534 - p. 381 - 397.
Biochemicals - Bioeconomy - Bioenergy - Computable general equilibrium - Macro-economic impact
Advanced uses of biomass for bioenergy and biochemicals are being gradually introduced and are expected to grow considerably in regional economies, thus raising questions on their mid-term macro-economic impacts. To assess these impacts, we use a computable general equilibrium model and a regional energy systems model side-by-side. The former is extended with new sectors of lignocellulosic biofuels, bioelectricity, biochemicals, lignocellulosic biomass supply and tradeable pellets. Next to 1st generation biofuels and other renewable energy supply, the economic impacts of bioeconomy are assessed for technology development and trade openness scenarios. We demonstrate the macro-economic model by assessing developments of the Dutch bioeconomy in 2030. Under rapid technical growth and trade openness, the models consistently show increased biomass consumption and supply of bioenergy and biochemicals from lignocellulose through large-scale deployment of advanced biomass conversion technologies. Traditional fossil-based sectors are replaced by biomass, which brings additional macro-economic benefits on gross domestic product (0.8 bn€ a−1) and value added (0.7 bn€ a−1). Furthermore, it reduces projected decline in trade balance (0.7 bn€ a−1) and employment (2.5–4.5%) compared to low technology development. Extending the temporal scope to beyond 2030 may demonstrate additional macro-economic benefits of bioeconomy. This requires assessing the influence of improvements in the agricultural sector that may lower biomass prices, learning and other developments of promising biomass conversion technologies in the longer term. Uncertain fossil fuel and CO2 price developments necessitate additional sensitivity analysis.
|Managing LUC‐induced GHG emissions and price impacts from bioenergy under different scenarios
Levin-Koopman, Jason ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Smeets, E.M.W. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Faaij, A. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Gerssen-Gondelach, S. ; Wicke, Birka - \ 2017
Sustainability constraints in determining European bioenergy potential : A review of existing studies and steps forward
Kluts, Ingeborg ; Wicke, Birka ; Leemans, Rik ; Faaij, André - \ 2017
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 69 (2017). - ISSN 1364-0321 - p. 719 - 734.
Bioenergy - Biomass - Europe - Land use - Potential - Review
This paper reviews European land and bioenergy potential studies to 1) identify shortcomings related to how they account for agricultural intensification and its associated environmental effects, and sustainability constraints, and 2) provide suggestions on how these shortcomings can be improved in future assessments. The key shortcomings are: The environmental impacts of intensification are nearly always ignored in the reviewed studies, while these impacts should be accounted for if intensification is required to make land available for energy cropping. Future productivity developments of crops and livestock, and the associated land-use and environmental effects are currently limited to conventional intensification measures whereby the proportion between inputs and outputs is fixed. Sustainable intensification measures, which increase land productivity with similar or lower inputs, are ignored in the reviewed studies. Livestock productivity developments, livestock specific intensification measures and their environmental effects are poorly or not at all covered in the reviewed studies. Most studies neglect sustainability constraints other than GHG emissions in the selection of energy crops. This includes limitations to rainfed energy crop cultivation, a minimum number of crop species, the structural diversity within cropping areas and the integration of energy crops in existing or new crop rotations, while simultaneously considering the effects on subsequent crops. These shortcomings suggest that the identification of sustainable pathways for European bioenergy production requires a more integrative approach combining land demand for food, feed and energy crop production, including different intensification pathways, and the consequent direct and indirect environmental impacts. A better inclusion of management practices into such approach will improve the assessment of intensification, its environmental consequences and the sustainable bioenergy potential from agricultural feedstocks.
What can and can't we say about indirect land-use change in Brazil using an integrated economic - land-use change model?
Verstegen, J.A. ; Hilst, Floor van der; Woltjer, Geert ; Karssenberg, Derek ; Jong, S.M. de; Faaij, André P.C. - \ 2016
Global change biology Bioenergy 8 (2016)3. - ISSN 1757-1693 - p. 561 - 578.
Biofuel - Brazil - Error propagation - Indirect land-use change - Land-use change - Modelling - Monte Carlo - Spatio-temporal - Sugar cane - Uncertainty
It is commonly recognized that large uncertainties exist in modelled biofuel-induced indirect land-use change, but until now, spatially explicit quantification of such uncertainties by means of error propagation modelling has never been performed. In this study, we demonstrate a general methodology to stochastically calculate direct and indirect land-use change (dLUC and iLUC) caused by an increasing demand for biofuels, with an integrated economic - land-use change model. We use the global Computable General Equilibrium model MAGNET, connected to the spatially explicit land-use change model PLUC. We quantify important uncertainties in the modelling chain. Next, dLUC and iLUC projections for Brazil up to 2030 at different spatial scales and the uncertainty herein are assessed. Our results show that cell-based (5 × 5 km2) probabilities of dLUC range from 0 to 0.77, and of iLUC from 0 to 0.43, indicating that it is difficult to project exactly where dLUC and iLUC will occur, with more difficulties for iLUC than for dLUC. At country level, dLUC area can be projected with high certainty, having a coefficient of variation (cv) of only 0.02, while iLUC area is still uncertain, having a cv of 0.72. The latter means that, considering the 95% confidence interval, the iLUC area in Brazil might be 2.4 times as high or as low as the projected mean. Because this confidence interval is so wide that it is likely to straddle any legislation threshold, our opinion is that threshold evaluation for iLUC indicators should not be implemented in legislation. For future studies, we emphasize the need for provision of quantitative uncertainty estimates together with the calculated LUC indicators, to allow users to evaluate the reliability of these indicators and the effects of their uncertainty on the impacts of land-use change, such as greenhouse gas emissions.
Macroeconomic outlook of sustainable energy and biorenewables innovations (MEV II)
Meijl, J.C.M. van; Tsiropoulos, I. ; Bartelings, H. ; Broek, M. van den; Hoefnagels, R. ; Leeuwen, M.G.A. van; Smeets, E.M.W. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Faaij, A. - \ 2016
LEI Wageningen UR (LEI report 2016-001) - ISBN 9789462577374 - 167
economic development - biobased economy - economic analysis - macroeconomic analysis - netherlands - environmental economics - scenario analysis - economic models - economische ontwikkeling - biobased economy - economische analyse - macro-economische analyse - nederland - milieueconomie - scenario-analyse - economische modellen
De Nederlandse overheid verwacht dat een grootschalige toepassing van biomassa nodig is om aan de emissiedoelstellingen te voldoen, maar de macro-economische effecten hiervan op de Nederlandse economie zijn onbekend. Deze studie onderzoekt de effecten van een bio-economie op zowel systeemals macro-economisch niveau en toont aan dat de bio-economie positief kan bijdragen aan de Nederlandse economie, het behalen van broeikasgasreductiedoelstellingen en aan het reduceren van de kosten van het terugdringen van broeikasgasemissies. Om deze effecten te realiseren zijn grootschalige technologische veranderingen en wereldwijde markten belangrijk, maar lage prijzen van fossiele energie leiden tot minder macro-economische voordelen. Om de positieve macro-economische effecten en CO2-reductie te realiseren is een stimuleringsbeleid noodzakelijk.
Corrigendum to "Mobilisation of biomass for energy from boreal forests in Finland & Russia under present sustainable forest management certification and new sustainability requirements for solid biofuels" [Biomass Bioenergy 71 (2014) 28-36]
Sikkema, R. ; Faaij, A.P.C. ; Ranta, T. ; Heinimö, J. ; Gerasimov, Y.Y. ; Karjalainen, T. ; Nabuurs, G.J. - \ 2015
Biomass and Bioenergy 73 (2015). - ISSN 0961-9534 - p. 225 - 225.
Model collaboration for the improved assessment of biomass supply, demand, and impacts
Wicke, B. ; Hilst, F. van der; Daioglou, V. ; Banse, M. ; Beringer, T. ; Gerssen-Gondelach, S. ; Heijnen, S. ; Karssenberg, D. ; Laborde, D. ; Lippe, M. ; Meijl, H. van; Nassar, A. ; Powell, J.P. ; Prins, A.G. ; Rose, S.N.K. ; Smeets, E.M.W. ; Stehfest, E. ; Tyner, W.E. ; Verstegen, J.A. ; Valin, H. ; Vuuren, D.P. van; Yeh, S. ; Faaij, A.P.C. - \ 2015
Global change biology Bioenergy 7 (2015)3. - ISSN 1757-1693 - p. 422 - 437.
land-use change - global agricultural markets - greenhouse-gas emissions - eu biofuel policies - bioenergy production - united-states - energy crops - trade-offs - bio-energy - ethanol
Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales, or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage. Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches can help assess (i) the causes of differences and similarities in model output, which is important for interpreting the results for policy-making and (ii) the linkages, feedbacks, and trade-offs between different systems and impacts (e.g., economic and natural), which is key to a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of biomass supply and demand. But, full consistency or integration in assumptions, structure, solution algorithms, dynamics and feedbacks can be difficult to achieve. And, if it is done, it frequently implies a trade-off in terms of resolution (spatial, temporal, and structural) and/or computation. Three key research areas are selected to illustrate how model collaboration can provide additional ways for tackling some of the shortcomings and uncertainties in the assessment of biomass supply and demand and their impacts. These research areas are livestock production, agricultural residues, and greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change. Describing how model collaboration might look like in these examples, we show how improved model collaboration can strengthen our ability to project biomass supply, demand, and impacts. This in turn can aid in improving the information for policy-makers and in taking better-informed decisions.
Mobilization of biomass for energy from boreal forests in Finland & Russia under present sustainable forest management certification and new sustainability requirements for solid biofuels
Sikkema, R. ; Faaij, A.P.C. ; Ranta, T. ; Heinimö, J. ; Gerasimov, Y.Y. ; Karjalainen, T. ; Nabuurs, G.J. - \ 2014
Biomass and Bioenergy 71 (2014). - ISSN 0961-9534 - p. 23 - 36.
environmental impacts - wood - bioenergy - resources - fuel - alternatives - procurement - potentials - countries - products
Forest biomass is one of the main contributors to the EU's renewable energy target of 20% gross final energy consumption in 2020 (Renewable Energy Directive). Following the RED, new sustainability principles are launched by the European energy sector, such as the Initiative Wood Pellet Buyers (IWPB or SBP). The aim of our study is the investigation of the quantitative impacts from IWPB's principles for forest biomass for energy only. We deploy a bottom up method that quantifies the supplies and the costs from log harvest until forest chip delivery at a domestic consumer. We have a reference situation with existing national (forest) legislation and voluntary certification schemes (scenario 1) and a future situation with additional criteria based on the IWPB principles (scenario 2). Two country studies were selected for our (2008) survey: one in Finland with nearly 100% certification and one in Leningrad province with a minor areal share of certification in scenario 1. The sustainable potential of forest resources for energy is about 54 Mm3 (385 PJ) in Finland and about 13.5 Mm3 (95 PJ) in Leningrad in scenario 1 without extra criteria. The potential volumes reduce considerably by maximum 43% respectively 39% after new criteria from the IWPB, like a minimum use of sawlogs, stumps and slash for energy, and by an increased area of protected forests (scenario 2A Maximum extra restrictions). In case sawlogs can be used, but instead ash recycling is applied after a maximum stump and slash recovery (scenario 2B Minimum extra restrictions), the potential supply is less reduced: 5% in Finland and 22% in Leningrad region. The estimated reference costs for forest chips are between €18 and €45 solid m-3 in Finland and between €7 and €33 solid m-3 in the Leningrad region. In scenario 2A, the costs will mainly increase by €7 m-3 for delimbing full trees (Finland), and maximum €0.3 m-3 for suggested improved forest management (Leningrad region). In scenario 2B, when ash recycling is applied, costs increase by about €0.3 to €1.6 m-3, depending on the rate of soil contamination. This is an increase of 2%, on top of the costs in scenario 2A.
Comparative analysis of key socio-economic and environmental impacts of smallholder and plantation based jatropha biofuel production systems in Tanzania
Eijck, J. van; Romijn, H. ; Smeets, E.M.W. ; Bailis, R. ; Rooijakkers, M. ; Hooijkaas, N. ; Verweij, P. ; Faaij, A. - \ 2014
Biomass and Bioenergy 61 (2014). - ISSN 0961-9534 - p. 25 - 45.
agricultural landscapes - mathematical-theory - communication - certification - biodiversity - bioenergy - energy - trade - india
Two jatropha business models are compared on seven key sustainability areas of concern, which are operationalized into various quantitative and qualitative indicators. The assessment is based on two Tanzanian real-life cases, a wide range of primary and secondary sources are used. Results indicate that both the decentralized smallholder model and the centralized plantation model can lead to positive socio-economic and environmental impacts, but substantial differences are also apparent. The smallholder model scores better on land rights, GHG balance and biodiversity and it reaches more people, whereas the plantation model creates more employment and higher (local prosperity) benefits for smaller numbers of people, and could lead to higher yields. Negative impacts of the smallholder model are minimal, whereas the plantation model could lead to decreased food security, loss of land rights and biodiversity. This could permanently affect the livelihood situation of the local population, but this is not inevitable as there is considerable scope for implementing mitigating policies. The way in which a particular model is implemented in practice, its management and company values, can have a major influence. However, the biggest hurdle towards achieving sustained positive societal impacts in both models is their marginal profitability at current yields, costs and prices. Still, these results are highly sensitive to uncertain yields and oil prices. Better outcomes in the future are therefore not foreclosed. A reliable sustainability assessment requires many location-specific and operational company data. More quantitative indicators are ideally required to improve assessment of social impacts and effects on environment.
Greenhouse gas mitigation effects of integrating biomass production into European agriculture
Wit, M.P. de; Lesschen, J.P. ; Londo, M. ; Faaij, A.P.C. - \ 2014
Biofuels Bioproducts and Biorefining 8 (2014)3. - ISSN 1932-104X - p. 374 - 390.
biofuel production potentials - nitrous-oxide emissions - cultivated land - sustainable use - spring barley - n2o emissions - carbon - tillage - management - soil
As energy crop production on European croplands expands, driven by accelerating consumption of bioenergy, there is a pressing need to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with this production. The present study considers on-going yield increases as a means of boosting agricultural output which results in a limited need to convert nature areas and grasslands to additional cropland. For nine land-use variants, the study evaluates cumulative greenhouse gas emissions, net organic carbon fluxes from the soil, and abated emissions achieved by replacing fossil fuels for transport with biofuels. The main finding is that, in European agriculture, it is possible to combine large-scale biomass production with food production sustained at current levels, with limited direct or indirect land-use changes and while accomplishing significant net greenhouse gas mitigation. Maintaining the current (business as usual) agricultural system results in 4.9 GtCO2-eq. of cumulative emissions by 2030. Intensifi ed food production and energy crop production on freed cropland combined with mitigation measure implementation signifi cantly reduces cumulative emissions for the annual crop groups of oil, starch and sugarbeet to 1.9, 1.5 and 2.1 GtCO2-eq., respectively. By 2030, perennial energy crop production can mitigate cumulative emissions to a large extent, reaching negative emissions (i.e. net sequestration) for grass and wood crops of –3.3 and –4.5 GtCO2-eq., respectively. For the variants compared to the baseline, nitrous oxide emissions will increase modestly due to higher fertilizer-application rates, though at improved effi ciencies per unit crop quantity produced. Emission mitigation results partly from the temporary increase in SOC sequestration though mainly from replacement of fossil resources by biomass resources. The results indicate that research and policy efforts aimed at further increasing productivity can raise the output from existing European croplands while being able to reduce or mitigate emissions significantly.
Macro-economic impact of large-scale deployment of biomass resources for energy and materials on a national level-A combined approach for the Netherlands
Hoefnagels, R. ; Banse, M.A.H. ; Dornburg, V. ; Faaij, A. - \ 2013
Energy Policy 59 (2013). - ISSN 0301-4215 - p. 727 - 744.
biofuel mandates - land-use - emissions - bioenergy - ethanol - balance - europe - costs
Biomass is considered one of the most important options in the transition to a sustainable energy system with reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increased security of enegry supply. In order to facilitate this transition with targeted policies and implementation strategies, it is of vital importance to understand the economic benefits, uncertainties and risks of this transition. This article presents a quantification of the economic impacts on value added, employment shares and the trade balance as well as required biomass and avoided primary energy and greenhouse gases related to large scale biomass deployment on a country level (the Netherlands) for different future scenarios to 2030. This is done by using the macro-economic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model LEITAP, capable of quantifying direct and indirect effects of a bio-based economy combined with a spread sheet tool to address underlying technological details. Although the combined approach has limitations, the results of the projections show that substitution of fossil energy carriers by biomass, could have positive economic effects, as well as reducing GHG emissions and fossil energy requirement. Key factors to achieve these targets are enhanced technological development and the import of sustainable biomass resources to the Netherlands. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials-Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments
Batidzirai, B. ; Smeets, E.M.W. ; Faaij, A.P.C. - \ 2012
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 16 (2012)9. - ISSN 1364-0321 - p. 6598 - 6630.
land-use scenarios - plantation biomass resources - climate-change - carbon sequestration - greenhouse-gas - bio-energy - water-use - sustainable bioenergy - spatial-distribution - integrated approach
Published estimates of the potential of bioenergy vary widely, mainly due to the heterogeneity of methodologies, assumptions and datasets employed. These discrepancies are confusing for policy and it is thus important to have scientific clarity on the basis of the assessment outcomes. Such clear insights can enable harmonisation of the different assessments. This review explores current state of the art approaches and methodologies used in bioenergy assessments, and identifies key elements that are critical determinants of bioenergy potentials. We apply the lessons learnt from the review exercise to compare and harmonise a selected set of country based bioenergy potential studies, and provide recommendations for conducting more comprehensive assessments. Depending on scenario assumptions, the harmonised technical biomass potential estimates up to 2030 in the selected countries range from 5,2 to 27.3 EJ in China, 1.1 to 18.8 EJ in India, 2.0 to 10.9 EJ in Indonesia, 1.6 to 7.0 EJ in Mozambique and 9.3 to 23.5 EJ in the US. From the review, we observed that generally, current studies do not cover all the basic (sustainability) elements expected in an ideal bioenergy assessment and there are marked differences in the level of parametric detail and methodological transparency between studies. Land availability and suitability lack spatial detail and especially degraded and marginal lands are poorly evaluated. Competition for water resources is hardly taken into account and biomass yields are based mostly on crude ecological zoning criteria. A few studies take into account improvements in management of agricultural and forestry production systems, but the underlying assumptions are hardly discussed. Competition for biomass resources among the various applications is crudely analysed in most studies and key assumptions such as demographic dynamics, biodiversity protection criteria, etc. are not explicitly discussed. To facilitate more comprehensive bioenergy assessments, we recommend an integrated analytical framework that includes all the key factors, employs high resolution geo-referenced datasets and accounts for potential feedback effects.
Indirect land use change: review of existing models and strategies for mitigation
Wicke, B. ; Verweij, P. ; Meijl, H. van; Vuuren, D.P. van; Faaij, A.P.C. - \ 2012
Biofuels 3 (2012)1. - ISSN 1759-7269 - p. 87 - 100.
This study reviews the current status, uncertainties and shortcomings of existing models of land use change (LUC) and associated GHG emissions as a result of biofuel production. The study also identifies options for improving the models and conducting further analysis. Moreover, because the extent of indirect LUC related to biofuels largely depends on other land uses, particularly agriculture, this study explores strategies for mitigating overall LUC and its effects. Despite recent improvements and refinements of the models, this review finds large uncertainties, primarily related to the underlying data and assumptions of the market-equilibrium models. Thus, there is still considerable scope for further scientific improvements of the modeling efforts. In addition, analyzing how overall LUC and its effects can be minimized is an important topic for further research and can deliver more concrete input for developing proper policy strategies. Future studies should investigate the impact of sustainability criteria and the effects of strategies for mitigating LUC, such as increasing agricultural efficiency, optimizing bioenergy production chains, using currently unused residues and byproducts, and producing feedstocks on degraded and marginal land.
Shades of Green : Spatial and temporal variability of potentials, costs and environmental impacts of bioenergy production
Hilst, F. van der - \ 2012
Utrecht University. Promotor(en): A. Faaij; Johan Sanders. - - 369
Environmental impacts of integrating biomass production into European agriculture
Lesschen, J.P. ; Wit, M. de; Londo, M. ; Faaij, A. - \ 2012
Spatial variation of environmental impacts of regional biomass chains
Hilst, F. van der; Lesschen, J.P. ; Dam, J.M.C. van; Riksen, M.J.P.M. ; Verweij, P.A. ; Sanders, J.P.M. ; Faaij, A. - \ 2012
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 16 (2012)4. - ISSN 1364-0321 - p. 2053 - 2069.
scale bioenergy production - energy crop cultivation - land-use - organic-matter - argentina part - water-use - biodiversity - miscanthus - costs - certification
In this study, the spatial variation of potential environmental impacts of bioenergy crops is quantitatively assessed. The cultivation of sugar beet and Miscanthus for bioethanol production in the North of the Netherlands is used as a case study. The environmental impacts included are greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (during lifecycle and related to direct land use change), soil quality, water quantity and quality, and biodiversity. Suitable methods are selected and adapted based on an extensive literature review. The spatial variation in environmental impacts related to the spatial heterogeneity of the physical context is assessed using Geographical Information System (GIS). The case study shows that there are large spatial variations in environmental impacts of the introduction of bioenergy crops. Land use change (LUC) to sugar beet generally causes more negative environmental impacts than LUC to Miscanthus. LUC to Miscanthus could have positive environmental impacts in some areas. The most negative environmental impacts of a shift towards sugar beet and Miscanthus occur in the western wet pasture areas. The spatially combined results of the environmental impacts illustrate that there are several trade offs between environmental impacts: there are no areas were no negative environmental impacts occur. The assessment demonstrates a framework to identify areas with potential negative environmental impacts of bioenergy crop production and areas where bioenergy crop production have little negative or even positive environmental impacts
Analysis of the economic impact of large-scale deployment of biomass resources for energy and materials in the Netherlands : macro-economics biobased synthesis report
Hoefnagels, R. ; Dornburg, V. ; Faaij, A. ; Banse, M.A.H. - \ 2011
Utrecht : Utrecht University, Department of Science, Technology and Society (STS) / Copernicus Institute - 40
biobased economy - biomassa - scenario-analyse - economische ontwikkeling - macro-economische analyse - bio-energie - nederland - vervangbare hulpbronnen - biobased economy - biomass - scenario analysis - economic development - macroeconomic analysis - bioenergy - netherlands - renewable resources
The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (PGG), part of the Energy Transition in The Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to conduct research on the macro-economic impact of large scale deployment of biomass for energy and materials in the Netherlands. Two model approaches were applied based on a consistent set of scenario assumptions: a bottom-up study including technoeconomic projections of fossil and bio-based conversion technologies and a topdown study including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources. The results of the top-down and bottom-up modelling work are reported separately. The results of the synthesis of the modelling work are presented in this report.
De status en toekomst van iLUC in de wetenschap : van kwantificering naar preventie
Faaij, A. ; Meijl, H. van; Broens, D.F. - \ 2011
[Den Haag] : LEI Wageningen UR
biobased economy - indirecte veranderingen van landgebruik - voorspellingen - beleid - schattingen - biobased economy - indirect land use change - forecasts - policy - estimates
Biobrandstoffen worden als een duurzame oplossing gezien voor het opraken van fossiele brandstof. Toch is er veel debat over de omvang van indirect land use change (iLUC) door het stimuleren van bio-brandstoffen. In de wetenschap is sprake van voortschrijdend inzicht. De eerste hoge schattingen zijn door betere studies naar beneden bijgesteld. En er zijn nog steeds veel verbeteringen in gegevens en modellen mogelijk. Bovendien lijkt het iLUC-effect goeddeels voorkomen te kunnen worden met de juiste aanpassingen in landbouw en veeteelt.
Potential, spatial distribution and economic performance of regional biomass chains: The North of the Netherlands as example
Hilst, F. van der; Dornburg, V. ; Sanders, J.P.M. ; Elbersen, B.S. ; Graves, A. ; Turkenburg, W.C. ; Elbersen, H.W. ; Dam, J.M.C. van; Faaij, A. - \ 2010
Agricultural Systems 103 (2010)7. - ISSN 0308-521X - p. 403 - 417.
brandstofgewassen - miscanthus - economische haalbaarheid - haalbaarheidsstudies - suikerbieten - biobased economy - noord-nederland - ketenmanagement - bioethanol - fuel crops - miscanthus - economic viability - feasibility studies - sugarbeet - biobased economy - north netherlands - supply chain management - bioethanol - biofuel production potentials - europe sustainable use - land-use scenarios - energy crops - electricity-generation - cultivated land - supply chains - ireland - costs
This work assesses the viability of regional biomass chains by comparing the economic performance of potential bioenergy crops with the performance of current agricultural land uses. The biomass chains assessed are ethanol production from Miscanthus and from sugar beet in the North of the Netherlands. The competitiveness of bioenergy crops is assessed by comparing the Net Present Value (NPV) of perennial crops, current rotations, and rotation schemes which include additional years of sugar beet. The current land use and soil suitability for present and bioenergy crops are mapped using a geographical information system (GIS) and the spatial distribution of economic profitability is used to indicate where land use change is most likely to occur. Bioethanol production costs are then compared with petrol costs. The productions costs comprise costs associated with cultivation, harvest, transport and conversion to ethanol. The NPVs and cost of feedstock production are calculated for seven soil suitability classes. The results show that bioenergy crops are not competitive with current cropping systems on soils classed as ‘‘suitable”. On less suitable soils, the return on intensively managed crops is low and perennial crops achieve better NPVs than common rotations. Our results showed that minimum feedstock production costs are 5.4 €/GJ for Miscanthus and 9.7 €/GJ for sugar beet depending on soil suitability. Ethanol from Miscanthus (24 €/GJ) is a better option than ethanol from sugar beet (27 €/GJ) in terms of costs. The cost of bioethanol production from domestically cultivated crops is not competitive with petrol (12.34 €/GJ) production under current circumstances. We propose that the method demonstrated in this study, provides a generic approach for identifying viable locations for bioenergy crop production based on soil properties and current land use.