Implications of Trophic Variability for Modeling Biomagnification of POPs in Marine Food Webs in the Svalbard Archipelago
Hoondert, Renske P.J. ; Brink, Nico W. van den; Heuvel-Greve, Martine J. van den; Ragas, Ad M.J. ; Jan Hendriks, A. - \ 2020
Environmental Science and Technology 54 (2020)7. - ISSN 0013-936X - p. 4026 - 4035.
The occurrence of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the Arctic has been of constant concern, as these chemicals cause reproductive effects and mortality in organisms. The Arctic acts as a chemical sink, which makes this system an interesting case for bioaccumulation studies. However, as conducting empirical studies for all Arctic species and POPs individually is unfeasible, in silico methods have been developed. Existing bioaccumulation models are predominately validated for temperate food chains, and do not account for a large variation in trophic levels. This study applies Monte Carlo simulations to account for variability in trophic ecology on Svalbard when predicting bioaccumulation of POPs using the optimal modeling for ecotoxicological applications (OMEGA) bioaccumulation model. Trophic magnification factors (TMFs) were calculated accordingly. Comparing our model results with monitored POP residues in biota revealed that, on average, all predictions fell within a factor 6 of the monitored POP residues in biota. Trophic variability did not affect model performance tremendously, with up to a 25% variability in performance metrics. To our knowledge, we were the first to include trophic variability in predicting biomagnification in Arctic ecosystems using a mechanistic biomagnification model. However, considerable amounts of data are required to quantify the implications of trophic variability on biomagnification of POPs in Arctic food webs.
Balancing indicators for sustainable intensification of crop production at field and river basin levels
Chukalla, Abebe Demissie ; Reidsma, Pytrik ; Vliet, Michelle T.H. van; Silva, João Vasco ; Ittersum, Martin K. van; Jomaa, Seifeddine ; Rode, Michael ; Merbach, Ines ; Oel, Pieter R. van - \ 2020
Science of the Total Environment 705 (2020). - ISSN 0048-9697
Crop production - Nitrogen-use efficiency - Selke Basin - Sustainable intensification - Water quality and quantity indicators - Water-use efficiency
Adequate tools for evaluating sustainable intensification (SI) of crop production for agro-hydrological system are not readily available. Building on existing concepts, we propose a framework for evaluating SI at the field and river basin levels. The framework serves as a means to assess and visualise SI indicator values, including yield, water-use efficiency and nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE), alongside water and nitrogen surpluses and their effects on water quantity and quality. To demonstrate the SI assessment framework, we used empirical data for both the field level (the Static Fertilization Experiment at Bad Lauchstädt) and the river basin level (the Selke basin, 463 km2) in central Germany. Crop yield and resource use efficiency varied considerably from 1980 to 2014, but without clear trends. NUE frequently fell below the desirable range (<50%), exposing the environment to a large N surplus (>80 kg N ha−1). For the catchment as a whole, the average nitrate-N concentration (3.6 mg L−1) was slightly higher than the threshold of 2.5 mg L−1 nitrate-N in surface water. However, weather and climate-related patterns, due to their effects on transport capacity and dilution, influenced water quantity and quality indicators more than agronomic practices. To achieve SI of crop production in the Selke basin, irrigation and soil moisture management are required to reduce yield variability and reduce N surpluses at field level. In addition, optimum application of fertiliser and manure could help to reduce the nitrate-N concentration below the set water quality standards in the Selke basin. In this way, there is scope for increase in yields and resource use efficiencies, and thus potential reduction of environmental impacts at basin level. We conclude that the framework is useful for assessing sustainable production, by simultaneously considering objectives related to crop production, resource-use efficiency and environmental quality, at both field and river basin levels.
Evaluation of watershed health using Fuzzy-ANP approach considering geo-environmental and topo-hydrological criteria
Alilou, Hossein ; Rahmati, Omid ; Singh, Vijay P. ; Choubin, Bahram ; Pradhan, Biswajeet ; Keesstra, Saskia ; Ghiasi, Seid Saeid ; Sadeghi, Seyed Hamidreza - \ 2019
Journal of Environmental Management 232 (2019). - ISSN 0301-4797 - p. 22 - 36.
Analytical network process - Fuzzy theory - Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) - Soil erosion - Watershed health
Assessment of watershed health and prioritization of sub-watersheds are needed to allocate natural resources and efficiently manage watersheds. Characterization of health and spatial prioritization of sub-watersheds in data scarce regions helps better comprehend real watershed conditions and design and implement management strategies. Previous studies on the assessment of health and prioritization of sub-watersheds in ungauged regions have not considered environmental factors and their inter-relationship. In this regard, fuzzy logic theory can be employed to improve the assessment of watershed health. The present study considered a combination of climate vulnerability (Climate Water Balance), relative erosion rate of surficial rocks, slope weighted K-factor, topographic indices, thirteen morphometric characteristics (linear, areal, and relief aspects), and potential non-point source pollution to assess watershed health, using a new framework which considers the complex linkage between human activities and natural resources. The new framework, focusing on watershed health score (WHS), was employed for the spatial prioritization of 31 sub-watersheds in the Khoy watershed, West Azerbaijan Province, Iran. In this framework, an analytical network process (ANP) and fuzzy theory were used to investigate the inter-relationships between the above mentioned geo-environmental factors and to classify and rank the health of each sub-watershed in four classes. Results demonstrated that only one sub-watershed (C15) fell into the class that was defined as ‘a potentially critical zone’. This article provides a new framework and practical recommendations for watershed management agencies with a high level of assurance when there is a lack of reliable hydrometric gauge data.
Harbour seal monitoring and evaluation for the Luchterduinen offshore windfarm : Final report
Brasseur, Sophie ; Schop, Jessica ; Cremer, Jenny ; Aarts, Geert - \ 2018
Texel : Wageningen Marine Research (Wageningen Marine Research rapport C074/18) - 40
Though it seems unlikely that marine mammals, including seals suffer at a large scale from direct mortality caused by the construction or operation of windfarms at sea, they are likely to be affected by disturbance and habitat alterations.In 2014, Luchterduinen windfarm was constructed in the Dutch coastal zone south west of IJmuiden and the permit (WV/2009-1229) requested monitoring with respect to both harbour and grey seals. Two main questions were formulated:1. How do seals use the coastal zone? The aim was to gain insight in harbour and grey seal movement routes along the Dutch North Sea coastal zone (between the Wadden Sea and the Delta region).2. What is the impact of Luchterduinen on seals? (with a focus on the impact of piling).This rapport discusses the results of the harbour seal studies. The initial monitoring (T0-T1; 2013-2015) based on a series of studies on the movements and habitat use of harbour seals deployed in spring (March), was timed in relation to the construction (2014) and operation of the windfarm. These studies were evaluated after T1 (in 2016). It was concluded that by limiting the study to spring deployments, the harbour seals’ habitat use during a large part of the year was missing. Since harbour seals moult in summer, the trackers attached to the fur typically fell off in June –July. In this study (T2-T3) therefore, a deliberate choice was made to study the behaviour of the seals in the post moult, from September onwards. A total of 18 seals were tracked from September onwards: in 2016 (T2) 6 from the Wadden Sea area and 6 from the Delta and again 6 from the Wadden Sea area in 2017(T3).With longer track durations of 20 to 187 days (mean 106 ± 46 days) in this last study information has been collected covering seven calendar months, six of which had not been studied before in this region. However there was large variation in behaviour, possibly but not solely as a result of the male bias in the sample (11 males, 7 females). Though the maximum and mean distance travelled by the seals was slightly less in autumn, the waters in the study area (i.e. the area off the west coast of the Netherlands enclosed by 51.95°N to 52.94°N, and from the coast offshore to 3.73°E) were used much more extensively by the seals tracked in autumn. In total the seals tracked during T2-T3 spent 27.3% of their time in the defined study area, while during spring deployments for T0-T1, this was only 1.5%. Out of the 18 seals tracked in autumn, 11 were observed in the study area. Interestingly these were animals tagged in the Wadden Sea region. During this time of the year animals are mostly feeding, which probably explains their higher presence in the study area. In contrast, during spring, mostly seals from the Delta crossed the study area en route to their breeding sites in the Wadden Sea. This probably explains the limited amount of time spent in the coastal zone. During the complete Luchterduinen study (T0-T3) comprising of 44 animals in spring and 18 in autumn, only one animal entered the Luchterduinen wind farm area. Its visits were short; which suggests it only crossed the area. Animals tracked during T2-T3 were observed more often in the vicinity of the wind farm, compared to the animals tagged during T0-T1.Based on these studies we concluded that harbour seals use the coastal zone west of North and South Holland to migrate to breeding areas in spring/summer, and use it to feed in autumn and winter. Recently, the recovery of the harbour seals in the Wadden Sea has come to a halt. However, pup production in the Wadden Sea is still increasing, and over two thousand pups are born in the Dutch Wadden Sea each year. Since the population size no longer grows, this suggest that an equal number of individuals die each year. Possibly the population has reached a ‘natural’ carrying capacity. However, human use at sea could also play a role in influencing the survival of individuals and the size of the population. Like other North Sea countries, the Dutch government has shown a clear intention to intensify the use of the marine areas in the near future, for windfarms but also sand mining, traffic and aquaculture. Quite likely this will affect the way the seals use the marine area. Further studies are needed to better understand how habitat changes play a role in the survival of individual animals.---Hoewel het onwaarschijnlijk is dat zeezoogdieren en dus zeehonden op grote schaal direct dodelijke gevolgen ondervinden van de bouw of ingebruikname van windparken op zee, is het hoogstwaarschijnlijk zo dat ze worden beïnvloed door de verstoring en veranderingen in hun habitat.Luchterduinen windpark werd in de Nederlandse kustzone ten zuidwesten van IJmuiden gebouwd in 2014 en de vergunning (WV/2009-1229) vereiste de monitoring van grijze en gewone zeehonden. Twee belangrijke vragen werden gesteld:1.Hoe gebruiken zeehonden de kustzone? Het doel was om inzicht te krijgen in de routes van de gewone en de grijze zeehond gedurende hun aanwezigheid in de Nederlandse kustzone (tussen de Waddenzee en het Deltagebied).2.Wat is de impact van Luchterduinen op de zeehonden? (met een focus op de hei-werkzaamheden)Dit rapport bespreekt de resultaten van de studies naar de gewone zeehond. De eerste monitoring (T0-T1; 2013-2015), gebaseerd op een reeks studies van beweging en habitat gebruik van gewone zeehonden gezenderd in het voorjaar (maart), was getimed in relatie tot de constructie (2014) en ingebruikname van het park. Deze studies werden na de T1 geëvalueerd (2016). Er werd geconcludeerd dat, door de studie te beperken tot het zenderen in het voorjaar, inzicht in het habitatgebruik van de gewone zeehonden voor een belangrijk deel van het jaar ontbrak. Aangezien de dieren in de zomer verharen, verloren ze de op de vacht geplakte zenders gewoonlijk in juni-juli. In de huidige studie (T2-T3) werd daarom een bewuste keuze gemaakt om het gedrag van de gewone zeehonden na de verharing te bestuderen, vanaf september. In totaal werden 18 zeehonden in het najaar gezenderd: in 2016 (T2) 6 in het waddengebied en 6 in het Deltagebied en het jaar erna, in 2017(T3) 6 in het waddengebied.Gemiddeld was de tijd dat de dieren gevolgd werden langer dan in de eerdere studies namelijk 20 tot 187 dagen (gem. 106 ± 46 dagen). In deze studie werd bovendien informatie verzameld over een periode van zeven maanden waarvan één maand overlap vertoonde met de eerder studiesEr was een grote variatie in gedrag tussen de dieren, mogelijk speelde o.a. de scheve geslachtsverhouding van de gezenderde zeehonden hierbij een rol; er werden 11 mannetjes en 7 vrouwtjes gezenderd. Hoewel de gemiddelde en de maximale afstand die de dieren zwommen in de herfst iets lager was, gebruikten de zeehonden in deze periode het studiegebied (ten westen van de westkust van Nederland begrensd door 51.95°N en 52.94°N, en van de kust af tot 3.73°E) veel intensiever. De zeehonden gezenderd in het najaar tijdens T2-T3 besteedden 27.3% van hun tijd in dit gebied, terwijl de dieren gezenderd in het voorjaar voor T0-T1 maar 1.5% van hun tijd hier doorbrachten. Van de 18 zeehonden gezenderd in de herfst werden er 11 in het gebied gezien. Interessant is wel, dat al deze dieren in het waddengebied waren gezenderd. In deze periode van het jaar zijn de dieren vooral aan het foerageren, wat mogelijk deze verspreiding verklaart. In tegenstelling daarmee, waren het vooral de in de Delta gezenderde dieren die in de lente het gebied doorkruisten op weg naar het waddengebied waar ze zich voortplanten. Dit verklaart mogelijk de beperkte tijd dat de dieren in het studiegebied gezien werden. Tijdens de gehele Luchterduinen-studie (T0-T3) met 44 dieren gezenderd in de lente en 18 in de herfst werd er maar één dier in het park zelf gezien. Gezien de korte verblijfsperiode in het park is het waarschijnlijk dat het dier het gebied alleen doorkruist heeft. Tijdens T2-T3 werden er meer dieren in de buurt van het windpark dan tijdens T0-T1.Gebaseerd op deze studies concluderen we dat gewone zeehonden het gebied ten westen van de Noord- en Zuid-Hollandse kust in de lente en zomer vooral gebruiken om te migreren naar de voortplantingsgebieden, en in de herfst en winter om te foerageren. De laatste jaren zijn de getelde aantallen gewone zeehonden in de Waddenzee min of meer gelijk gebleven, terwijl het aantal pups nog steeds groeit. Er worden tegenwoordig jaarlijks meer dan 2000 pups geboren. Aangezien er geen groei is suggereert dit dat er even zoveel dieren jaarlijks sterven. Mogelijk heeft de populatie de “natuurlijke” draagkracht bereikt. Echter menselijk gebruik van de zee zou ook een rol kunnen spelen en de overleving van individuen en de populatiegrootte kunnen beïnvloeden. Net als andere Noordzeelanden heeft de Nederlandse regering een duidelijke intentie getoond om in de nabije toekomst het gebruik van de zee te willen intensiveren voor windparken, en daarnaast ook voor zandwinning, vaarbewegingen en aquacultuur. Het is aannemelijk dat dit de manier waarop de zeehonden de zee gebruiken zal beïnvloeden. Verdere studies zijn nodig om te begrijpen hoe verandering van het habitat van de zeehonden een rol kan spelen op de overleving van individuele dieren.
The path to economic development is growing more treacherous, again
Frankema, Ewout - \ 2018
In the 1990s economists had almost given up on the developing world. Although individual countries, like Singapore or South Korea, occasionally scaled the income ladder, the overall picture was, in the words of Lant Pritchett, a development economist at Harvard University, “divergence, big-time” between advanced economies and the rest. Then the scene changed. From the late 1990s global trade grew explosively, and the gap between the rich and the rest closed fast. Poverty tumbled. The share of people living on no more than $1.90 a day (at purchasing-power parity) fell from 36% in 1990 to just 10% in 2015. It would be the best of news if this trend could be maintained. Sadly, convergence seems to be slowing. That is bad news for Africa in particular.
Combining conventional ground-based and remotely sensed forest measurements
Decuyper, Mathieu - \ 2018
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): M. Herold; F.J.J.M. Bongers, co-promotor(en): J.G.P.W. Clevers. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463435246 - 128
The world’s natural ecosystems are under pressure due to land conversion and climate change. Forests are a major part of these natural ecosystems and cover up to 30% of the earth’s surface. Trees are crucial for timber, store carbon, and provide other ecosystem functions. Assessing and predicting forest ecosystem responses based on global environmental changes is an important task for scientists.
For many decades monitoring of forest ecosystems has been implemented using various well established (conventional) methods, but in more recent decades remote sensing techniques have made steep developments and provide opportunities in this respect. Although conventional monitoring has proven its value in many cases, monitoring forest ecosystems for decision making often requires large scale monitoring. In this sense, remote sensing (RS) offers a solution and has been successfully used for monitoring forest disturbance at regional and global scales. However, remote sensing also has made advances at plot scale, for example using near-sensing terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). Despite the potential for close collaborations between the remote sensing and forest ecology communities, there is still a disconnect (e.g. spatial / temporal resolution of data) between the two fields of expertise, which means that combining data from the two fields is difficult. To better understand for example tree physiological processes using remote sensing, further synchronisation of the two fields is vital for improving the potential for satellite data.
In this thesis, I explored how to link conventional ground-based methods with remote sensing techniques, using both satellite and novel near-sensing TLS in order to investigate aspects of forest change. To do this, I looked at four representative cases with different forest types, which were selected to address different current environmental challenges with indirect (reduced tree vitality) and direct (change in forest structure) impacts.
In chapter 2, we attempted to upscale ground-based conventional forest canopy measurements at plot level to remote sensing derived indices of the canopy in the Pampa del Tamarugal aquifer, in the hyper-arid Atacama desert of Chile. We assessed the foliage loss (dry branches) of the Prosopis tamarugo Phil. (a native tree) by ground-based visual assessment and digital pictures over three groundwater depletion conditions. These pictures were segmented and classified into green and brown canopy to derive the GCF (green canopy fraction). The GCF was then related to NDVIw (NDVI in winter time) from the WorldView2 satellite data, and NDVIw was used to estimate and thus upscale the GCF to all P. tamarugo trees in the aquifer. NDVIw derived from the Landsat archive allowed us to not only assess the current status of the P. tamarugo trees, but also changes over time. In this study we could successfully link ground-based conventional forest canopy measurements to remote sensing derived indices of the canopy. This allowed us, in combination with the groundwater level grids, to assess the tree vitality of the whole aquifer and determine a critical groundwater depth of 20 m for the P. tamarugos survival.
Chapter 3 and 4 link ring width (RW) data at plot level to remote sensing derived plot level indices of the canopy. In both chapters the aim was to better understand the effect of environmental factors (e.g. water shortage) on the growth of trees both from the stem (wood) and canopy perspective. In Chapter 3 we used the GCF (current situation) and NDVI-based indices (historical situation) from satellite data derived from chapter 2, and assessed the correlation between NDVI-based satellite indices with ground-based tree-ring increments in two contrasting sites (low and high groundwater depletion). Time-series analysis (over a period of 26 years) and NDVI-derived parameters showed significant negative trends in the high-depletion site, indicating drought stress. Ring width of P. tamarugo trees was 48% lower in the high-depletion site. At the tree level, the GCF in the highly depleted site also indicated drought stress since a larger percentage of trees fell within lower GCF classes. In this case monitoring water shortage over time was straightforward since the stand was monospecific, and water shortage happened gradually. This was not the case in chapter 4 where we addressed the effect of climate on tree growth by combining tree-ring data of 25 locations in Slovenia with remote sensing derived EVI indices (enhanced vegetation index) from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data. We attempted to upscale the results at plot scale to national level for the tree species Fagus sylvatica L. (Beech) in the temperate forests of Slovenia. We were not able to find any relations of both RW and EVI based anomalies with climate parameters, nor was there a relation between RW and EVI based anomalies. Reasons might be: (i) time-series length (i.e. overlap between the data types), (ii) complexity of the environmental stress, such as the interplay of climatic conditions with other factors such as topography (also depending on the timing and duration of a climate event within the year), (iii) a satellite pixel might consist of other tree species less sensitive to drought, and (iv) empirical linkage between parameters – uncertainty about the direct relationship between stem and canopy derived parameters. We did find indications that both RW and EVI based anomalies were negatively affected by the extreme climate events in Slovenia, in particular the effect of the ice storm of 2014. Combining dendrochronology and remote sensing allowed us to understand the effects of drought stress on two different carbon pools (crown and stem, respectively), providing more insights on the physiological response of the species to drought.
In Chapter 5 we investigated forest structure in tropical forests in Ethiopia. Here we combined conventional forest inventory measurements such as biomass, tree density, and tree species, with near-sensing TLS measurements such as PAVD (plant area vegetation density) and canopy openness. Differences between four forest types (intact forest, coffee forest, silvopasture, and plantation) for both conventional and TLS measurements were assessed. Results showed that the 3D vegetation structure (i.e. PAVD) and canopy parameters could be used to differentiate between forest types. TLS as tool for monitoring forest structure showed potential as it can capture the 3D position of the vegetation volume and open spaces at all heights. To quantify changes in different forest types, consistent monitoring of 3D structure is needed and here TLS is an add-on or an alternative to conventional forest structure monitoring.
This thesis contributes to the exploration of the advantages of combining conventional ground-based data and remote sensing derived data. Combining both data types can mutually enhance the potential capabilities of each other. Remote sensing can upscale plot data to large spatial scales, while near sensing tools such as TLS can provide detailed forest structural data. Conventional ground-based data provide insight into the ecology of stands, e.g. RW or ecophysiological processes, and can help to understand remote sensing derived canopy indices. Advances in remote sensing are moving towards higher spatial, temporal, and spectral detail, but without the in-situ ecological data these advances do not reach their full potential. I, therefore, strongly advocate closer collaborations between the two research fields in the set-up of monitoring campaigns (e.g. different spatial scales). In this thesis I explored the value of combing the two fields in an empirical way. However, not all issues have been solved and more research is needed. Future research could focus on an integrated and tree-centred approach that can help to understand climate-growth interaction and the connections between stem and canopy derived indices. Future challenges also lay in improving the data operability and data processing. For remote sensing to become a conventional method, it has to become more ecologically (ecosystem) driven in an operational and cost-effective way.
Energiemonitor van de Nederlandse glastuinbouw 2017
Velden, Nico van der; Smit, Pepijn - \ 2018
Wageningen : Wageningen Economic Research (Wageningen Economic Research rapport 2018-109) - ISBN 9789463433822 - 59
The greenhouse horticulture sector and government have agreed on a target of 4.6 megatonnes in 2020. In 2017, CO2 emissions increased to 5.9 megatonnes, which means that the greenhouse horticulture sector is above the goal. CO2 emissions fell considerably in the 2010-2014 period, primarily due to a reduction in acreage, reduced electricity sales and lower energy consumption per m2 of greenhouse. There was a slight increase between 2014 and 2017, but after correction for temperature, CO2 emissions were broadly stable. Influencing factors in this period were a reduction in acreage, more sustainable energy, increased electricity sales and an increase in energy consumption per m2. For energy consumption per m2, a strengthening of demand for electricity from lighting and for heat was an influencing factor in the 2014-2017 period. In 2017, the proportion of sustainable energy in the total energy consumption increased to 6.5% thanks to the purchasing of sustainable electricity and geothermal heat. Energy efficiency remained the same in 2017.
Drafting a Law, Dissolving a Proposal: Food Sovereignty and the State in Ecuador
Martinez Flores, A. ; Ruivenkamp, G.T.P. ; Jongerden, J.P. - \ 2018
Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy 7 (2018)3. - ISSN 2321-0281 - p. 1 - 30.
Upon being sworn in as the 56th Ecuadorian President on 15 January 2007, Rafael Correa immediately convened, through a referendum, a National Constituent Assembly to draw up a new constitution. One of the concerns of the assembly was to translate into law a food-sovereignty proposal put forward by social movements. In the process of becoming law, the food-sovereignty proposal was much changed. How is it possible that the final version, the law, so far fell short of the food-sovereignty movement’s original proposal? Addressing this question implies a reflection on the role of the state. We argue that (a) instead of strengthening the role of peasants, their participation was reduced to a bureaucratic structure (a ‘council’) that lacked the capacity to define or implement policies, and (b) the issue of the social function of land and land-reform was removed. I therefore conclude that the social movements’ proposal for food sovereignty was stripped of its essentials.
Extreme precipitation in the Netherlands : An event attribution case study
Eden, Jonathan M. ; Kew, Sarah F. ; Bellprat, Omar ; Lenderink, Geert ; Manola, Iris ; Omrani, Hiba ; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van - \ 2018
Weather and Climate Extremes 21 (2018). - ISSN 2212-0947 - p. 90 - 101.
Attributing the change in likelihood of extreme weather events, particularly those occurring at small spatiotemporal scales, to anthropogenic forcing is a key challenge in climate science. While a warmer world is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture on a global scale, the impact on the magnitude of extreme precipitation episodes has substantial regional variability. Analysis of individual cases is important in understanding the extent of these changes on spatial scales relevant to stakeholders. Here, we present a probabilistic attribution analysis of the extreme precipitation that fell in large parts of the Netherlands on 28 July 2014. Using a step-by-step approach, we aim to identify changes in intensity and likelihood of such an event as a result of anthropogenic global warming while highlighting the challenges in performing robust event attribution on high-impact precipitation events that occur at small scales. A method based on extreme value theory is applied to observational data in addition to global and regional climate model ensembles that pass a robust model evaluation process. Results based on observations suggest a strong and significant increase in the intensity and frequency of a 2014-type event as a result of anthropogenic climate change but trends in the model ensembles used are considerably smaller. Our results are communicated alongside considerable uncertainty, highlighting the difficulty in attributing events of this nature. Application of our approach to convection-resolving models may produce a more robust attribution.
Towards an explanatory framework for national level maternal health policy agenda item evolution in Ghana : An embedded case study
Koduah, Augustina ; Agyepong, Irene Akua ; Dijk, Han van - \ 2018
Health Research Policy and Systems 16 (2018)1. - ISSN 1478-4505
Decision pathway - Ghana - Maternal health - Policy actors - Policy agenda - Policy evolution - Policy fate - Power
Background: Understanding decision-making processes that influence the fate of items on the health policy agenda at national level in low- and middle-income countries is important because of the implications for programmes and outcomes. This paper seeks to advance our understanding of these processes by asking how and why maternal health policy agenda items have fared in Ghana between 1963 and 2014. Methods: The study design was a single case study of maternal health agenda evolution once on a decision pathway in Ghana, with three different agenda items as sub-units of analysis (fee exemptions for maternal health, free family planning and primary maternal health as part of a per capita provider payment system). Data analysis involved chronologically reconstructing how maternal health policy items evolved over time. Results: The fate of national level maternal health policy items was heavily influenced by how stakeholders (bureaucrats, professional bodies, general public and developmental partners) exercised power to put forward and advocate for specific ideas through processes of issues framing within a changing political and socioeconomic context. The evolution and fate of an agenda item once on a decision pathway involved an iterative process of interacting drivers shaping decisions through cycles of 'active' and 'static' pathways. Items could move from 'active' to 'static' pathways, depending on changing context and actor positions. Items that pursued the 'static' pathway in a particular cycle fell into obscurity by a process that could be described as a form of 'no decision made' in that an explicit decision was not taken to drop the item, but neither was any policy content agreed. Low political interest was exhibited and attempts to bring the item back into active decision-making were made by actors mainly in the bureaucratic arena seeking and struggling (unsuccessfully) to obtain financial and institutional support. Policy items that pursued 'active' pathways showed opposite characteristics and generally moved beyond agenda into formulation and implementation. Conclusion: Policy change requires sustaining policy agenda items into formulation and implementation. To do this, change agents need to understand and work within the relevant context, stakeholder interests, power, ideas and framing of issues.
Deindustrialization in East Africa: textile production in an era of globalization and colonization, c. 1830-1940
Frederick, Katharine - \ 2018
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): E.H.P. Frankema; E.J.V. van Nederveen Meerkerk. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463432405 - 200
While the development of handicraft textile industries has stimulated broader industrial and economic development in a number of world regions, many of East Africa’s domestic cloth industries fell into rapid decline by the early twentieth century. This study examines cases of deindustrialization in southern and central East Africa, which are subsequently considered in light of existing studies on comparatively more resilient textile industries in northern East Africa and West Africa. Scholars have generally focused on forces of globalization as the drivers of industrial decline, placing particular emphasis on purportedly devastating competition from machine-made imported cloth as regions like East Africa increasingly integrated into the global trading system from the early nineteenth century onward. However, this dissertation argues that the causes of deindustrialization lie with a number of local structural factors – particularly demographic, geographic, and institutional features – that interacted with time-dependent external forces to diminish industrial production possibilities in East Africa.
Home garden system dynamics in Southern Ethiopia
Mellisse, Beyene Teklu ; Ven, Gerrie W.J. van de; Giller, Ken E. ; Descheemaeker, Katrien - \ 2018
Agroforestry Systems 92 (2018)6. - ISSN 0167-4366 - p. 1579 - 1595.
Cash crops - Catha edulis - Commercialization - Cropping patterns - Diversification - Home garden types
Home gardens in southern Ethiopia are regarded as efficient farming systems, allowing interactions and synergies between crop, tree and livestock components. However, these age-old traditional home gardens are evolving rapidly in response to changes in both the socio-economic and biophysical environment. Altered cropping patterns, farm size and component interactions may affect the systems’ sustainability. Home gardens exhibit a huge diversity in farms and farming systems, which needs to be understood in order to design interventions for improvement. Dynamics of home gardens were studied over two-decades (1991–2013) based on a survey of 240 farm households and focus group discussions. Farms were grouped into five types: Khat-based, Enset-cereal-vegetable, Enset-based, Enset-coffee and Enset-livestock. Farm trajectories revealed a shift from food-oriented Enset-based and Enset-livestock systems to (1) cash crop oriented khat-based systems, and (2) combined food and cash crop oriented Enset-cereal-vegetable systems. In densely populated, market proximate areas a major trend was expansion of khat, from 6 to 35% of the area share per farm, while the combined area share of enset and coffee decreased from 45 to 25%. Concurrently, the cattle herd size fell from 5.8 TLU to 3.9 TLU per household. In medium populated, less accessible areas the trend was consolidation of combined production of food and cash crops. Enset and coffee together maintained a share of over 45%. Easy transport and marketing of the perishable cash-generating khat compared with traditional crops favoured its cultivation among smallholders located close to markets. The insights in home garden change in response to increasing population pressure, decreasing farm size and market development may help to design interventions to increase system sustainability.
Giant Mealworm (Zophobas Morio) as a “Vehicle” to Transport Healthy Nutritional Ingredients from Seaweed (Ascophyllum Nodosum) towards Fish Cultured: Amino Acids
Nederlof, M.A.J. ; Durif, Caroline M.F. ; Verdegem, M.C.J. ; Booms, G.H.R. ; Vries, Evert de; Ginneken, V.J.T. van - \ 2017
International Journal of Advances in Agricultural Science and Technology 4 (2017)5. - ISSN 2348-1358 - p. 1 - 13.
Zophobas morio, - Ascophyllum nodosum - amino acid composition - fish meal replacement - innovative food chain.
This study is the first step investigating a new food chain, using Zophobas morio as a potential “vehicle” to transport amino acids (AA) from Norwegian kelp (Ascophyllum nodosum) into the insect body. Additionally, suitability of Z. morio as a dietary protein substitute for fishmeal (FM) in aquaculture feeds, was evaluated. Proximate composition (dry matter, ash, protein, fat and energy) and complete (free + hydrolysed + tryptophan) AA profiles were determined for Z. morio fed with kelp granulate or oat meal. Using principle component analysis we identified similarities and differences in essential AA between diets and Z. morio fed with these diets. AA scores were calculated to evaluate protein quality of Z. morio. Results showed a slight enrichment in several essential AA for Z. morio fed kelp granulate. Protein level of Z. morio in this study fell within the ranges of protein requirements for fish. All essential AA for fish were present in Z. morio. Based on AA scores it was concluded that methionine would be first limiting. Overall, protein levels and AA profiles showed that Z. morio fed with kelp granulate can be seen as an interesting candidate to replace FM in aquatic diets.
Emissies naar lucht uit de landbouw in 2014 : berekeningen met het model NEMA
Bruggen, C. van; Bannink, A. ; Groenestein, C.M. ; Huijsmans, J.F.M. ; Luesink, H.H. ; Oude Voshaar, S.V. ; Sluis, S.M. van der; Velthof, G.L. ; Vonk, J. - \ 2017
Wageningen : Statutory Research Tasks Unit for Nature & the Environment (WOt-technical report 90) - 96
ammoniak - landbouw - emissie - mest - distikstofmonoxide - dierhouderij - modellen - nederland - ammonia - agriculture - emission - manures - nitrous oxide - animal husbandry - models - netherlands
Landbouwkundige activiteiten zijn in Nederland een belangrijke bron van ammoniak (NH3), stikstofoxide (NO), lachgas (N2O),methaan (CH4) en fijnstof (PM10 en PM2,5). De emissies in 2014 zijn berekend met het National Emission Model for Agriculture(NEMA). Tegelijk zijn enkele cijfers in de reeks 1990-2013 aangepast op basis van nieuwe inzichten. De rekenmethodiek gaatbij de berekening van de ammoniakemissie uit dierlijke mest uit van de hoeveelheid totaal ammoniakaal stikstof (TAN) in demest. De ammoniakemissie uit dierlijke mest, kunstmest en overige bronnen in 2014 bedroeg 121 miljoen kg NH3, bijna4 miljoen kg meer dan in 2013. De stijging komt voornamelijk door uitbreiding van de melkveestapel en een hogerstikstofgehalte van het ruwvoer. De N2O-emissie nam toe van 19,1 miljoen kg in 2013 naar 19,4 miljoen kg in 2014. De NOemissienam toe van 16,9 naar 17,2 miljoen kg. De methaanemissie nam iets toe van 499 tot 503 miljoen kg. De emissie vanfijnstof nam licht toe van 6,3 miljoen kg PM10 tot 6,4 miljoen kg, door een toename van het aantal stuks pluimvee. De emissievan PM2,5 bedroeg in beide jaren 0,6 miljoen kg. Sinds 1990 is de ammoniakemissie uit dierlijke mest en kunstmest mettweederde gedaald, vooral door een lagere stikstofuitscheiding door landbouwhuisdieren en emissiearme mesttoediening.Emissies van lachgas en stikstofoxide daalden in dezelfde periode eveneens, maar minder sterk (ca. 40%) omdat doorondergronds toedienen van mest de emissies hoger zijn geworden en door de omschakeling van stalsystemen met dunne naarvaste mest bij pluimvee. Tussen 1990 en 2014 daalde de emissie van methaan met 16% door een afname in de dieraantallenen een hogere voeropname en productiviteit van melkvee---Agricultural activities are in the Netherlands a major source of ammonia (NH3), nitrogen oxide (NO), nitrous oxide (N2O),methane (CH4) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5). The emissions in 2014 were calculated using the National EmissionModel for Agriculture (NEMA). At the same time some figures in the time series 1990-2013 were revised. The method calculatesthe ammonia emission from livestock manure on the basis of the total ammonia nitrogen (TAN) content in manure. Ammoniaemissions from livestock manure, fertilizers and other sources in 2014 were 121 million kg, which was almost 4 million kghigher than in 2013, mainly due to expansion of the dairy herd and a higher N-content of roughage. N2O emissions increasedfrom 19.1 million kg in 2013 to 19.4 million kg in 2014. NO emission increased slightly from 16.9 to 17.2 million kg. Methaneemissions increased from 499 to 503 million kg. Emissions of particulate matter increased slightly from 6.3 to 6.4 million kgPM10 as a result of higher poultry numbers. Emission of PM2.5 in both years was 0.6 million kg. Ammonia emissions fromlivestock manure in the Netherlands dropped by almost two thirds since 1990, mainly as a result of lower nitrogen excretionrates by livestock and low-emission manure application. Nitrous oxide and nitrogen oxide also fell over the same period, butless steeply (by about 40%), due to higher emissions from manure injection into the soil and to the shift from poultry housingsystems based on liquid manure to solid manure systems. Methane emissions fell by 16% between 1990 and 2014 caused by adrop in livestock numbers and increased feed uptake and productivity of dairy cattle
Networked health sector governance and state-building legitimacy in conflict-affected fragile states : the variable impact of non-state provision of public health services in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
Aembe, Bwimana - \ 2017
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): D.J.M. Hilhorst, co-promotor(en): D. Dijkzeul; Murhega Mashanda Job. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463431606 - 231
governance - health - congo democratic republic - central government - local area networks - non-governmental organizations - conflict - governance - gezondheid - democratische republiek kongo - rijksoverheid - lokale netwerken - niet-gouvernementele organisaties - conflict
State fragility in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has impacted the state’s ability to provide public services, as well as and the population’s experiences and perceptions of the state. For public health and for social welfare more broadly, the contributions of the state are weak and contingent on the involvement of non-state service providers (NSPs). The population has become dependent on non-state actors for the provision of basic social services, and NSPs are especially important in public health, where their engagement accounts for the survival of the sector. The state and NSPs interact through networked governance, where relevant actors are involved in a network through resource interdependency, cooperation, collaboration and even competition to achieve social goals (Klijn, 2004). Networked governance processes in the DRC public health sector take place at three structural levels: national, provincial and operational. Networked governance serves as an institutionalised public model for health sector management through these three levels.
A great deal of previous work has studied the link between legitimacy and state service delivery, but there has been little investigation of the link between basic service provision by NSPs and state legitimacy in fragile states. This study explored how the networked governance of the health sector contributes to state-building processes and to state legitimacy in the DRC, also examining how the image of the state is shaped by NSP service provision. The study focused on state-building outcomes related to effective public health governance, the strengthening of system management and health service provision through state–non-state interactions. The study also explored state legitimacy and the population’s experiences and perceptions of the state, in a context where the delivery of public health services is mediated by non-state actors.
The research was guided by the following key question:
How does the networked governance of health services, involving state and non-state actors through multi-stakeholder interactions, affect state-building and legitimacy in the fragile setting of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo?
Networked Governance in the Management of the DRC’s Health Sector
Non-state stakeholders have been actively involved in the delivery of basic public services throughout the history of the DRC (Pearson, 2011; Seay, 2013; Waldman, 2006). Some scholars have argued that strong inputs from NSPs, supported by international funding, gives the DRC’s health sector its ‘current resilient’ outlook (Pearson, 2011: 12; Seay, 2013). Although these inputs have not been homogeneous across provinces or health zones (HZs) within provinces (Pavignani, Michael, Murru, Beesley & Hill, 2013; Pearson, 2011), their aggregate contribution accounts for the persistence of the sector in terms of policy making and enforcement, health system management and service delivery.
NSPs can be categorised as national or international, and as traditional or situational partners. Faith-based organisations (FBOs) are classified as national and as traditional partners of the state. International actors recognised as traditional health policy partners mostly include bilateral and multilateral institutions that have long supported state-building in the DRC. In contrast, most international NGOs are situational partners whose emergence was spurred by state fragility and the humanitarian consequences of wars. In collaboration with the Ministry of Health (MoH), traditional international partners contribute to the process of national policy making and system strengthening. Situational partners are mostly engaged in unintegrated projects and humanitarian interventions focusing on circumstantial situations of social vulnerability. Through their frequent use of different policies and stand-alone projects, these organisations have involuntarily contributed to a decentralised and rather fragmented system. Traditional partners such as FBOs and international donor organisations play a crucial role in the networked governance of the health sector and in public health care delivery.
Networked Governance and State Legitimacy in the DRC’s Fragile Health Sector
The DRC has a long history of state fragility and deficiencies in performing the functions of modern states. NSPs operate like surrogate state service providers, and both the state and NSPs are engaged in the process of health care provision through networked governance.
In this study’s examination of state legitimacy, ‘a state is more legitimate the more it is treated by its citizens as rightfully holding and exercising political power’ (Gilley, 2006). A lack of legitimacy is a major contributor to state fragility, because it undermines state authority (Unsworth, 2010). In most cases, declines in service delivery have been found to reduce the population’s support of the state and its leadership (OECD/DAC, 2008). However, little is known about how this works in fragile settings characterised by institutional multiplicity, so how NSP interventions contribute to state legitimacy was treated as an open question in this study.
Actor-oriented Interactions in the Networked Governance of the DRC’s Health Sector
Networked governance arrangements in the DRC’s health sector have the characteristics of a social arena, which is ‘typical of actor-oriented interactions’ (Hilhorst & Jansen, 2010). As symbolic locations, arenas are neither geographical entities nor organisational systems; rather, they describe the political actions of all of the social actors involved in a specific issue (Kitschelt 1980 in Renn, 1993).
The Multilevel Nature of Health Sector Networked Governance Arenas
Health sector governance in the DRC has a pyramidal organisation involving the central (national), intermediate (provincial) and operational (HZ) levels (Bukonda, Chand, Disashi, Lumbala & Mbiye, 2012).
The central level consists of the national MoH, which is expected to play a strategic role, engaging in policy formulation, elaboration of the mechanisms for public policy implementation, sector funding and high-level interactions with non-state stakeholders (i.e. signing framework agreements or specific agreements). The MoH is responsible for general sector policy and system regulation, national programmes and tertiary hospitals (Waldman, 2006). Although policy making is an exclusive function of the MoH (Zinnen, 2012), donors and other development partners inform and support the process through technical and financial assistance.
The intermediate level concerns the management of the provincial health system and the oversight of the operational (HZ) level. The intermediate level organises and provides technical support to the HZ (World Bank, 2005). At this level, state and non-state actors interact to improve the structural system governance and to manage the provision of health services. Through the Comité Provincial de Pilotage Santé, stakeholders work towards harmonising interventions and establishing the model of engagement at the provincial level. Using HZ evidence-based reports, the Comité Provincial de Pilotage Santé defines provincial-level stakeholder priorities in line with the national health policy.
The HZ is the operational unit that integrates primary health care services and the first-referral level. An HZ covers an average population of 110,000 and consists of a central HZ office, an array of health posts and centres, and a general referral hospital (Carlson, Maw & Mafuta, 2009). Because of the lack of government financing over the last decades, HZs and their constituent facilities have operated with considerable autonomy, although MoH structures have retained administrative control, particularly over human resources (Carlson et al., 2009). Many facilities have become in effect privatised, relying on patient fees to pay staff and operating costs. At the HZ level, networked governance of the local health system takes place through the Bureau Central de Zone de Santé (HZ Management Board). In this arena, interactions take place among representatives of the state, non-state actors (where possible) and community-based organisations—especially the community health development committees (Comité de Développement Sanitaires).
This research is part of the Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium, which focuses on state legitimacy, capacity for state-building and livelihood trajectories in conflict-affected situations (Levine, 2014). This study fell under the first two of these themes, with a focus on the population’s experiences, perceptions and expectations regarding state legitimacy and on building effective states that deliver services and social protection. This study began in 2012, with the empirical research starting in August 2013. The fieldwork lasted 19 months, ending in April 2015.
Most of the research was conducted in the province of South Kivu, with complementary data collection in Kinshasa. A case study design was used, with two multi-stakeholder governance arrangements serving as the cases. The first case was performance-based financing (PBF), which is the transfer of money or material goods from a funder to a contracting recipient, on the condition that the recipient will take a measurable action or achieve a predetermined performance goal. The second case was a community-based health insurance (CBHI) programme—Mutuelle de Santé (MUS). The case study of PBF focused on health system governance because of PBF’s pivotal role in the process of building the health system. The CBHI case study explored MUS outcomes related to equity in access to health services, protection from financial risk and the financing of health services. The CBHI case study was based primarily on observations in a rural area (Katana) and a semi-urban area (Uvira).
Focusing on the multilevel networked governance of the DRC’s health sector, this study drew on institutional ethnography, which examines work processes and studies how they are coordinated, typically through examining various texts and discourses (Smith, 2009). Attention was given to discourses, relationship patterns, writings and multi-stakeholder governance arrangements throughout study period.
Six types of participants were interviewed: public health officials and state actors from MoH offices at national and provincial levels (approximately 30 participants); representatives of donor organisations, international NGOs and national NGOs (16 organisations: three donor organisations, six international organisations and seven national NGOs); health service providers throughout the province (20 medical doctors); individuals involved in the management of CBHI/MUS at multiple levels, especially in Katana and Uvira (approximately 68 participants); CBOs (35 people from Comité de Développement de l’Aire de Santé, CODESA); and community members (beneficiaries, clients and citizens), especially in Katana, Bukavu, Uvira and Idjwi (approximately 1,000 participants). For the last category of respondents, community opinions on health services, the state and NSPs were assessed through interviewees’ personal storytelling, semi-structured interviews and focus groups. To assess the baseline situation in the health sector, a content analysis of the four main official policy papers was also conducted.
Main Research Findings
The findings of this research revolved around three main study concerns: 1) the institutional outlook, functioning and state-building outcomes of networked health governance and international intervention models; 2) the review of the two schemes fostering networked governance through multi-stakeholder governance engagement; and 3) the exploration of the impact of NSP interventions on the population’s perceptions and the legitimacy of the state.
Institutional Functioning and State-building Outcomes of Networked Health Governance and International Intervention Models
Networked health sector governance and state-building outcomes (chapter 2). Longstanding patterns of interaction exist between state and non-state actors seeking to improve public health in the DRC. In many cases, private actors have stepped in to fill the void created by the lack of state health care provision. The findings demonstrate that state–non-state interactions in the DRC’s health sector create a burgeoning form of multilevel networked governance and that these interactions play a role in explaining the persistence of the health sector despite the weakness of the state. It is difficult to assess the real influence of these interactions on state-building in a context of critical fragility, where coordination and alignment are problematic. The findings also indicate that several factors—specifically, the fragmented nature of interventions conducted by the majority of international NGOs, imbalanced power relations during negotiations with development partners and weaknesses in governance—impede the construction of a coherent, resilient and sustainable health system in the DRC. Generally, the findings indicate that networked governance through interactions between the state and non-state providers may contribute to state-building.
State fragility discourse and the challenge of policy coalition-building for interventions programming and stakeholder engagement models (Chapter 3)
State fragility is a discourse without a policy coalition in the DRC’s health sector governance network. The government and donors/international NGOs have not yet harmonised their perceptions of fragility. These key stakeholders have also not reached a common understanding on intervention policy, and there is a clash between opposing institutional logics in the processes of policy making and intervention programming. The contentious nature of the concept of fragile statehood has hampered the construction of a policy coalition for health sector interventions. Donors rationalise the persistence of emergency-based interventions by emphasising fragile statehood, whereas state officials assert political statehood and argue for a paradigm shift towards a higher degree of state control. The lack of consensus around state fragility has influenced perceptions of the state and international NGOs/donors in their engagement with health interventions programming in the DRC. Government officials in the DRC see fragile statehood as a stigmatising concept that contributes to difficulties with getting international NGOs to comply with the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. However, representatives of the state and donor organisations agree that, because public health sector funding is lacking, donors’ financial contributions ensure the sector’s survival.
Multi-stakeholder Health System Arrangements: Strengthening Networked Health Governance and Community Health Coverage
International organisations and donors have supported schemes, such as PBF and CBHI/MUS, which have impacted the networked governance and system-building in the local health sector, as well as improving health care delivery.
PBF and strengthening public health governance (Chapter 4)
This study examined the effectiveness of PBF in three areas of health system governance: structural governance from a capacity-building perspective, health service provision management and demand-side empowerment for effective accountability. In general, the study found that PBF positively impacted the process of health system-building in these three areas. Although much is still lacking, health governance and the provision of services have improved, and patient-centred care and social accountability have strengthened the provider–patient relationship. The research found positive outcomes for incentive-based contracting and output-based financing. However, donors, state officials and other stakeholders doubt the sustainability of these approaches, and PBF faces obstacles associated with state fragility. In addition to structural threats and uncertain sustainability, transforming transactional motivation into transformational change is a challenge. Ultimately, the research found out that PBF supports health sector-based state-building, but it cannot repair a collapsed state.
CBHI and community health coverage (Chapter 5)
The MUS CBHI scheme began operating just after the wars in South Kivu. The research findings indicate that MUS schemes lead to improvements in access and social protection only for a portion of the population. Similar findings for outcomes related to resource mobilisation and the financial sustainability of the health sector point to continued management challenges facing MUS schemes. These challenges are compounded by state fragility. To contribute effectively to universal health coverage, the state should reinforce its stewardship presence in strengthening MUS.
NSPs and Local Perceptions of the State (Chapter 6)
Service provision—especially health care delivery—serves as a public sphere and an arena for interactions and multi-stakeholder processes. The findings indicated that the population’s perceptions of the state reflect a breach of social contract, because the state has failed to live up to the population’s needs and expectations. The presence of NSPs may have negative effects on the population’s perceptions of the state, because NSPs’ performance establishes their benevolent image while solidifying a negative image of the state. However, the state-building legitimacy outcomes of NSPs’ engagement in this context are contingent on how the services are delivered: When NSPs engage with the state on the ground, people also see the state in action. People then assign credit not only to the NSPs, but also to the state, which is important for state-building and legitimacy. There is no direct correlation between service provision by NSPs and the positive image of the state; what positively impacts the image of the state is its visibility on the ground.
Overall, this study explored state-building outcomes resulting from networked health sector governance in a war-affected context with an empirically weak state. In this context, the public health provision inputs of NSPs are crucial for the population’s welfare. The findings indicate that NSP engagement contributes strongly to public health provision and the management of the health system. However, state fragility has a negative impact on networked health governance and donor-supported interventions. Bids to respond to population vulnerability and humanitarian needs should include state-building engagement, as state fragility hampers the success and undermines the sustainability of any rational intervention carried out by non-state actors.
Integrated strategy for the assessment of kidney toxicity : the case of aristolochic acids
Abdullah, Rozaini - \ 2017
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Ivonne Rietjens, co-promotor(en): Ans Punt; Sebas Wesseling; Jochem Louisse. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463430807 - 207
animal testing alternatives - in vitro - toxicity - models - risk assessment - toxins - carboxylic acids - alternatieven voor dierproeven - in vitro - toxiciteit - modellen - risicoschatting - toxinen - carbonzuren
This PhD thesis aimed to provide additional evidence to demonstrate the potential of an integrated testing strategy using in vitro assays with physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modeling based-reverse dosimetry to predict in vivo toxicity without animal testing. Kidney toxicity was chosen as the toxicity endpoint and aristolochic acids (AAs) were selected as model chemicals. AAs are natural nephrotoxic, genotoxic and carcinogenic chemicals present in Aristolochia species. PBK models for rat, mouse and human were developed for aristolochic acid I (AAI) based on kinetic parameter values derived from in vitro incubations using relevant tissue fractions. Then, in vitro concentration-response curves for cytotoxicity of AAI were obtained in kidney cell lines and translated to in vivo dose-response curves for kidney toxicity using PBK modeling-based reverse dosimetry. The points of departure (PODs) obtained from these predicted in vivo dose-response curves generally fell within the range of PODs derived from in vivo literature data on kidney toxicity of AAI. The same PBK models were subsequently used to translate the in vitro concentration-response curves for AAI-DNA adduct formation to in vivo dose-response curves for kidney AAI-DNA adduct formation. The predicted in vivo AAI-DNA adduct formation in the rat, mouse and human kidney varied within an order of magnitude compared to the in vivo values reported in the literature. The PBK models were also used to predict the dose level that would be required in humans to obtain the level of DNA adducts in rats at the BMD10 (the benchmark dose causing a 10% extra risk above background level) value for AAI-induced tumor formation in the rat kidney. This analysis revealed that the dose level required to induce the level of DNA adduct formation that equals the DNA adduct level at the BMD10 were similar to AA doses estimated to be taken in Belgian patients that developed urinary tract cancer. Given that the exposure to AAI is often accompanied by the presence of AAII, in a next study the relative formation of DNA adducts by these two major AA congeners was investigated. The results revealed that the relative higher formation of AAI-DNA adducts as compared to AAII-DNA adducts observed in vitro was not reflected in vivo where the levels formed upon exposure to equal dose levels were relatively similar. PBK model based translation of the in vitro data to the in vivo situation revealed that PBK model based prediction of in vivo DNA adduct formation is feasible. However, predicted AAI-DNA adduct levels were higher than predicted AAII-DNA adduct levels, indicating that the difference between the in vitro and in vivo AAI-/AAII-DNA adduct ratios could only in part be explained by differences in in vivo kinetics of AAI compared to AAII. The discrepancy between the difference in DNA adduct formation of AAI and AAII in the in vitro and the in vivo situation is an issue that needs further investigation to also adequately predict the relative differences between the two AAs. In a final chapter this thesis aimed to investigate the possible risks associated with exposure to AAs based on AA levels measured in plant food supplements (PFS) and herbal products. This is of interest given the restrictions on the presence of AAs in food, installed in various countries including The Netherlands, after the incidences with induction of Aristolochic Acid Nephropathy upon use of herbal weight loss preparations that accidentally contained AAs. The risk assessment of PFS and herbal products containing AAs purchased via online markets revealed that consumers can still be exposed to AA-containing PFS and herbal products and that the corresponding levels of exposure raise concern especially for people who frequently use the products. Altogether, this thesis presented further support for the use of combined in vitro-PBK modeling based alternative tools for risk assessment and revealed the continued risks posed by AAs present in PFS and herbal products.
Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Wang, Haidong ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar ; Coates, M. ; Coggeshall, M.S. ; Dandona, L. ; Diallo, Khassoum ; Barboza Franca, Elisabeth ; Fraser, M. ; Fullman, N. ; Gething, Peter W. ; Geleijnse, J.M. - \ 2016
The Lancet 388 (2016)10053. - ISSN 0140-6736 - p. 1725 - 1774.
Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time.
Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1–4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980–2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age–sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).
Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7–6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7–53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3–43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6–2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1–57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6–3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone.
Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030.
Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Wang, Haidong ; Naghavi, Mohsen ; Allen, Christine ; Barber, R.M. ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar ; Carter, Austin ; Casey, Daniel C. ; Charlson, Fiona J. ; Chen, Alan Z. ; Coates, M. ; Geleijnse, J.M. - \ 2016
The Lancet 388 (2016)10053. - ISSN 0140-6736 - p. 1459 - 1544.
Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.
We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).
Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.
At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
Telen met gestuurde vochtafvoer : komkommers in de Venlow Energy kas
Gelder, A. de - \ 2016
Bleiswijk : Wageningen UR Glastuinbouw (Rapport GTB 1408)
teelt onder bescherming - kasgewassen - glasgroenten - glastuinbouw - dubbele beglazing - komkommers - cucumis sativus - evaporatie - ventilatie - vochtigheid - protected cultivation - greenhouse crops - greenhouse vegetables - greenhouse horticulture - double glazing - cucumbers - cucumis sativus - evaporation - ventilation - humidity
Funded by Kas als Energiebron, Wageningen UR Greenhouse Horticulture conducted an experiment witth cucumber in the Venlow Energy greenhouse with a high-wire system. The objective was to achieve a minimal evaporation during cultivation under double glazing and a film screen. In the night the evaporation fell to 15-25 g. m-2.hour-1. This was enough to grow cucumbers without deficiency symptoms. Only in March, some degree of “bolblad” occurred, but after a few sunny days the crop well recovered. The film screen was kept closed until 2 hours after sunset and one hour before sundown closed. This provided no problems for cultivation. In the night the humidity could rise above 95% without Mycosphearella problems. For the new cultivation strategy this means if other factors such as horizontal uniformity of the climate are good that cultivation in high humidity and with minimal ventilation is possible. For the Venlow Energy greenhouse ventilation rate was 0.37 and this delivers in winter conditions a sufficient degree of natural ventilation and moisture management.
Patterns of natural fungal community assembly during initial decay of coniferous and broadleaf tree logs
Wal, Annemieke van der; Klein Gunnewiek, P.J.A. ; Cornelissen, J.H.C. ; Crowther, Thomas W. ; Boer, Wietse de - \ 2016
Ecosphere 7 (2016)7. - ISSN 2150-8925
454 pyrosequencing of ITS - Competitive strength - Endophytic fungi - Fungal interactions - LOGLIFE - Natural fungal community assembly - Priority effects - Succession - Wood decomposition - Wood traits
Community assembly processes do not only influence community structure, but can also affect ecosystem processes. To understand the effect of initial community development on ecosystem processes, we studied natural fungal community dynamics during initial wood decay. We hypothesize that fungal community assembly dynamics are driven by strong priority effects of early-arriving species, which lead to predictable successional patterns and wood decay rates. Alternatively, equivalent colonization success of randomly arriving spores has the potential to drive stochastic community composition and wood decay rates over time. To test these competing hypotheses, we explored the changes in fungal community composition in logs of two tree species (one coniferous and one broadleaf) during the early stages of wood decomposition in a common garden approach. Initial communities were characterized by endophytic fungi, which were highly diverse and variable among logs. Over the first year of decomposition, there was little evidence for priority effects, as early colonizers displaced the endophytic species, and diversity fell as logs were dominated by a few fungal species. During this period, the composition of colonizing fungi was related to the decomposition rates of sapwood. During the second year of decomposition, fungal community composition shifted drastically and the successional dynamics varied considerably between tree species. Variation in fungal community composition among coniferous (Larix kaempferi) logs increased, and there remained no evidence for any priority effects as community composition became stochastic. In contrast, early colonizers still dominated many of the deciduous (Quercus rubra) logs, with a temporally consistent impact on community composition. For both tree species, wood decay rates levelled off and the relationship with fungal community composition disappeared. Our results indicate that priority effects are relatively minimal in naturally occurring fungal community assembly processes. Instead, fungal successional dynamics are governed predominantly by combative abilities of colonizing fungi, and factors that shape fungal communities over time can differ considerably between tree species. Our results indicate that an increased focus of competitive strength among species, rather than priority effects, may be key to predict community assembly and the ecosystem process they provide.