Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Global distribution of earthworm diversity
Phillips, Helen R.P. ; Guerra, Carlos A. ; Bartz, Marie L.C. ; Briones, Maria J.I. ; Brown, George ; Crowther, Thomas W. ; Ferlian, Olga ; Gongalsky, Konstantin B. ; Hoogen, Johan Van Den; Krebs, Julia ; Orgiazzi, Alberto ; Routh, Devin ; Schwarz, Benjamin ; Bach, Elizabeth M. ; Bennett, Joanne ; Brose, Ulrich ; Decaëns, Thibaud ; König-Ries, Birgitta ; Loreau, Michel ; Mathieu, Jérôme ; Mulder, Christian ; Putten, Wim H. Van Der; Ramirez, Kelly S. ; Rillig, Matthias C. ; Russell, David ; Rutgers, Michiel ; Thakur, Madhav P. ; Vries, Franciska T. De; Wall, Diana H. ; Wardle, David A. ; Arai, Miwa ; Ayuke, Fredrick O. ; Baker, Geoff H. ; Beauséjour, Robin ; Bedano, José C. ; Birkhofer, Klaus ; Blanchart, Eric ; Blossey, Bernd ; Bolger, Thomas ; Bradley, Robert L. ; Callaham, Mac A. ; Capowiez, Yvan ; Caulfield, Mark E. ; Choi, Amy ; Crotty, Felicity V. ; Dávalos, Andrea ; Diaz Cosin, Darío J. ; Dominguez, Anahí ; Duhour, Andrés Esteban ; Eekeren, Nick Van; Emmerling, Christoph ; Falco, Liliana B. ; Fernández, Rosa ; Fonte, Steven J. ; Fragoso, Carlos ; Franco, André L.C. ; Fugère, Martine ; Fusilero, Abegail T. ; Gholami, Shaieste ; Gundale, Michael J. ; Gutiérrez Lopez, Monica ; Hackenberger, Davorka K. ; Hernández, Luis M. ; Hishi, Takuo ; Holdsworth, Andrew R. ; Holmstrup, Martin ; Hopfensperger, Kristine N. ; Lwanga, Esperanza Huerta ; Huhta, Veikko ; Hurisso, Tunsisa T. ; Iannone, Basil V. ; Iordache, Madalina ; Joschko, Monika ; Kaneko, Nobuhiro ; Kanianska, Radoslava ; Keith, Aidan M. ; Kelly, Courtland A. ; Kernecker, Maria L. ; Klaminder, Jonatan ; Koné, Armand W. ; Kooch, Yahya ; Kukkonen, Sanna T. ; Lalthanzara, H. ; Lammel, Daniel R. ; Lebedev, Iurii M. ; Li, Yiqing ; Jesus Lidon, Juan B. ; Lincoln, Noa K. ; Loss, Scott R. ; Marichal, Raphael ; Matula, Radim ; Moos, Jan Hendrik ; Moreno, Gerardo ; Mor n-Ríos, Alejandro ; Muys, Bart ; Neirynck, Johan ; Norgrove, Lindsey ; Novo, Marta ; Nuutinen, Visa ; Nuzzo, Victoria ; Mujeeb Rahman, P. ; Pansu, Johan ; Paudel, Shishir ; Pérès, Guénola ; Pérez-Camacho, Lorenzo ; Piñeiro, Raúl ; Ponge, Jean François ; Rashid, Muhammad Imtiaz ; Rebollo, Salvador ; Rodeiro-Iglesias, Javier ; Rodríguez, Miguel ; Roth, Alexander M. ; Rousseau, Guillaume X. ; Rozen, Anna ; Sayad, Ehsan ; Schaik, Loes Van; Scharenbroch, Bryant C. ; Schirrmann, Michael ; Schmidt, Olaf ; Schröder, Boris ; Seeber, Julia ; Shashkov, Maxim P. ; Singh, Jaswinder ; Smith, Sandy M. ; Steinwandter, Michael ; Talavera, José A. ; Trigo, Dolores ; Tsukamoto, Jiro ; Valença, Anne W. De; Vanek, Steven J. ; Virto, Iñigo ; Wackett, Adrian A. ; Warren, Matthew W. ; Wehr, Nathaniel H. ; Whalen, Joann K. ; Wironen, Michael B. ; Wolters, Volkmar ; Zenkova, Irina V. ; Zhang, Weixin ; Cameron, Erin K. ; Eisenhauer, Nico - \ 2019
Science 366 (2019)6464. - ISSN 0036-8075 - p. 480 - 485.

Soil organisms, including earthworms, are a key component of terrestrial ecosystems. However, little is known about their diversity, their distribution, and the threats affecting them. We compiled a global dataset of sampled earthworm communities from 6928 sites in 57 countries as a basis for predicting patterns in earthworm diversity, abundance, and biomass. We found that local species richness and abundance typically peaked at higher latitudes, displaying patterns opposite to those observed in aboveground organisms. However, high species dissimilarity across tropical locations may cause diversity across the entirety of the tropics to be higher than elsewhere. Climate variables were found to be more important in shaping earthworm communities than soil properties or habitat cover. These findings suggest that climate change may have serious implications for earthworm communities and for the functions they provide.

How to measure, report and verify soil carbon change to realize the potential of soil carbon sequestration for atmospheric greenhouse gas removal
Smith, Pete ; Soussana, Jean Francois ; Angers, Denis ; Schipper, Louis ; Chenu, Claire ; Rasse, Daniel P. ; Batjes, Niels H. ; Egmond, Fenny van; McNeill, Stephen ; Kuhnert, Matthias ; Arias-Navarro, Cristina ; Olesen, Jorgen E. ; Chirinda, Ngonidzashe ; Fornara, Dario ; Wollenberg, Eva ; Álvaro-Fuentes, Jorge ; Sanz-Cobena, Alberto ; Klumpp, Katja - \ 2019
Global Change Biology (2019). - ISSN 1354-1013
measurement - monitoring - MRV - reporting - soil organic carbon - soil organic matter - verification

There is growing international interest in better managing soils to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) content to contribute to climate change mitigation, to enhance resilience to climate change and to underpin food security, through initiatives such as international ‘4p1000’ initiative and the FAO's Global assessment of SOC sequestration potential (GSOCseq) programme. Since SOC content of soils cannot be easily measured, a key barrier to implementing programmes to increase SOC at large scale, is the need for credible and reliable measurement/monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) platforms, both for national reporting and for emissions trading. Without such platforms, investments could be considered risky. In this paper, we review methods and challenges of measuring SOC change directly in soils, before examining some recent novel developments that show promise for quantifying SOC. We describe how repeat soil surveys are used to estimate changes in SOC over time, and how long-term experiments and space-for-time substitution sites can serve as sources of knowledge and can be used to test models, and as potential benchmark sites in global frameworks to estimate SOC change. We briefly consider models that can be used to simulate and project change in SOC and examine the MRV platforms for SOC change already in use in various countries/regions. In the final section, we bring together the various components described in this review, to describe a new vision for a global framework for MRV of SOC change, to support national and international initiatives seeking to effect change in the way we manage our soils.

Inter- and intra-breed genome-wide copy number diversity in a large cohort of European equine breeds
Solé, Marina ; Ablondi, Michela ; Binzer-Panchal, Amrei ; Velie, Brandon D. ; Hollfelder, Nina ; Buys, Nadine ; Ducro, Bart J. ; François, Liesbeth ; Janssens, Steven ; Schurink, Anouk ; Viklund, Åsa ; Eriksson, Susanne ; Isaksson, Anders ; Kultima, Hanna ; Mikko, Sofia ; Lindgren, Gabriella - \ 2019
BMC Genomics 20 (2019)1. - ISSN 1471-2164 - 1 p.
Copy number variation - Horse - SNP genotyping array - Structural variation

BACKGROUND: Copy Number Variation (CNV) is a common form of genetic variation underlying animal evolution and phenotypic diversity across a wide range of species. In the mammalian genome, high frequency of CNV differentiation between breeds may be candidates for population-specific selection. However, CNV differentiation, selection and its population genetics have been poorly explored in horses. RESULTS: We investigated the patterns, population variation and gene annotation of CNV using the Axiom® Equine Genotyping Array (670,796 SNPs) from a large cohort of individuals (N = 1755) belonging to eight European horse breeds, varying from draught horses to several warmblood populations. After quality control, 152,640 SNP CNVs (individual markers), 18,800 segment CNVs (consecutive SNP CNVs of same gain/loss state or both) and 939 CNV regions (CNVRs; overlapping segment CNVs by at least 1 bp) compared to the average signal of the reference (Belgian draught horse) were identified. Our analyses showed that Equus caballus chromosome 12 (ECA12) was the most enriched in segment CNV gains and losses (~ 3% average proportion of the genome covered), but the highest number of segment CNVs were detected on ECA1 and ECA20 (regardless of size). The Friesian horses showed private SNP CNV gains (> 20% of the samples) on ECA1 and Exmoor ponies displayed private SNP CNV losses on ECA25 (> 20% of the samples). The Warmblood cluster showed private SNP CNV gains located in ECA9 and Draught cluster showed private SNP CNV losses located in ECA7. The length of the CNVRs ranged from 1 kb to 21.3 Mb. A total of 10,612 genes were annotated within the CNVRs. The PANTHER annotation of these genes showed significantly under- and overrepresented gene ontology biological terms related to cellular processes and immunity (Bonferroni P-value < 0.05). We identified 80 CNVRs overlapping with known QTL for fertility, coat colour, conformation and temperament. We also report 67 novel CNVRs. CONCLUSIONS: This work revealed that CNV patterns, in the genome of some European horse breeds, occurred in specific genomic regions. The results provide support to the hypothesis that high frequency private CNVs residing in genes may potentially be responsible for the diverse phenotypes seen between horse breeds.

Rarity of monodominance in hyperdiverse Amazonian forests
Steege, Hans Ter; Henkel, Terry W. ; Helal, Nora ; Marimon, Beatriz S. ; Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur ; Huth, Andreas ; Groeneveld, Jürgen ; Sabatier, Daniel ; Souza Coelho, Luiz de; Andrade Lima Filho, Diogenes de; Salomão, Rafael P. ; Amaral, Iêda Leão ; Almeida Matos, Francisca Dionízia de; Castilho, Carolina V. ; Phillips, Oliver L. ; Guevara, Juan Ernesto ; Jesus Veiga Carim, Marcelo de; Cárdenas López, Dairon ; Magnusson, William E. ; Wittmann, Florian ; Irume, Mariana Victória ; Martins, Maria Pires ; Silva Guimarães, José Renan da; Molino, Jean François ; Bánki, Olaf S. ; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez ; Pitman, Nigel C.A. ; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo ; Ramos, José Ferreira ; Luize, Bruno Garcia ; Moraes de Leão Novo, Evlyn Márcia ; Núñez Vargas, Percy ; Silva, Thiago Sanna Freire ; Venticinque, Eduardo Martins ; Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto ; Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa ; Terborgh, John ; Casula, Katia Regina ; Honorio Coronado, Euridice N. ; Montero, Juan Carlos ; Feldpausch, Ted R. ; Duque, Alvaro ; Costa, Flávia R.C. ; Arboleda, Nicolás Castaño ; Schöngart, Jochen ; Killeen, Timothy J. ; Vasquez, Rodolfo ; Mostacedo, Bonifacio ; Demarchi, Layon O. ; Assis, Rafael L. ; Baraloto, Chris ; Engel, Julien ; Petronelli, Pascal ; Castellanos, Hernán ; Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante de; Quaresma, Adriano ; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni ; Andrade, Ana ; Camargo, José Luís ; Laurance, Susan G.W. ; Laurance, William F. ; Rincón, Lorena M. ; Schietti, Juliana ; Sousa, Thaiane R. ; Sousa Farias, Emanuelle de; Lopes, Maria Aparecida ; Magalhães, José Leonardo Lima ; Mendonça Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo ; Lima de Queiroz, Helder ; Aymard C, Gerardo A. ; Brienen, Roel ; Revilla, Juan David Cardenas ; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães ; Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat ; Stevenson, Pablo R. ; Feitosa, Yuri Oliveira ; Duivenvoorden, Joost F. ; Mogollón, Hugo F. ; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro ; Ferreira, Leandro Valle ; Lozada, José Rafael ; Comiskey, James A. ; Toledo, José Julio de; Damasco, Gabriel ; Dávila, Nállarett ; Draper, Freddie ; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt ; Lopes, Aline ; Vicentini, Alberto ; Alonso, Alfonso ; Dallmeier, Francisco ; Gomes, Vitor H.F. ; Lloyd, Jon ; Neill, David ; Aguiar, Daniel Praia Portela de; Arroyo, Luzmila ; Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes ; Souza, Fernanda Coelho de; Amaral, Dário Dantas do; Feeley, Kenneth J. ; Gribel, Rogerio ; Pansonato, Marcelo Petratti ; Barlow, Jos ; Berenguer, Erika ; Ferreira, Joice ; Fine, Paul V.A. ; Guedes, Marcelino Carneiro ; Jimenez, Eliana M. ; Licona, Juan Carlos ; Peñuela Mora, Maria Cristina ; Villa, Boris ; Cerón, Carlos ; Maas, Paul ; Silveira, Marcos ; Stropp, Juliana ; Thomas, Raquel ; Baker, Tim R. ; Daly, Doug ; Dexter, Kyle G. ; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau ; Milliken, William ; Pennington, Toby ; Ríos Paredes, Marcos ; Fuentes, Alfredo ; Klitgaard, Bente ; Pena, José Luis Marcelo ; Peres, Carlos A. ; Silman, Miles R. ; Tello, J.S. ; Chave, Jerome ; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando ; Fiore, Anthony Di; Hilário, Renato Richard ; Phillips, Juan Fernando ; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo ; Andel, Tinde R. van; Hildebrand, Patricio von; Noronha, Janaína Costa ; Barbosa, Edelcilio Marques ; Barbosa, Flávia Rodrigues ; Matos Bonates, Luiz Carlos de; Sá Carpanedo, Rainiellen de; Dávila Doza, Hilda Paulette ; Fonty, Émile ; GómeZárate Z, Ricardo ; Gonzales, Therany ; Gallardo Gonzales, George Pepe ; Hoffman, Bruce ; Junqueira, André Braga ; Malhi, Yadvinder ; Andrade Miranda, Ires Paula de; Pinto, Linder Felipe Mozombite ; Prieto, Adriana ; Jesus Rodrigues, Domingos de; Rudas, Agustín ; Ruschel, Ademir R. ; Silva, Natalino ; Vela, César I.A. ; Vos, Vincent Antoine ; Zent, Egleé L. ; Zent, Stanford ; Weiss Albuquerque, Bianca ; Cano, Angela ; Carrero Márquez, Yrma Andreina ; Correa, Diego F. ; Costa, Janaina Barbosa Pedrosa ; Flores, Bernardo Monteiro ; Galbraith, David ; Holmgren, Milena ; Kalamandeen, Michelle ; Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade ; Oliveira, Alexandre A. ; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma ; Rocha, Maira ; Scudeller, Veridiana Vizoni ; Sierra, Rodrigo ; Tirado, Milton ; Umaña Medina, Maria Natalia ; Heijden, Geertje van der; Vilanova Torre, Emilio ; Vriesendorp, Corine ; Wang, Ophelia ; Young, Kenneth R. ; Ahuite Reategui, Manuel Augusto ; Baider, Cláudia ; Balslev, Henrik ; Cárdenas, Sasha ; Casas, Luisa Fernanda ; Farfan-Rios, William ; Ferreira, Cid ; Linares-Palomino, Reynaldo ; Mendoza, Casimiro ; Mesones, Italo ; Torres-Lezama, Armando ; Giraldo, Ligia Estela Urrego ; Villarroel, Daniel ; Zagt, Roderick ; Alexiades, Miguel N. ; Oliveira, Edmar Almeida de; Garcia-Cabrera, Karina ; Hernandez, Lionel ; Palacios Cuenca, Walter ; Pansini, Susamar ; Pauletto, Daniela ; Ramirez Arevalo, Freddy ; Sampaio, Adeilza Felipe ; Valderrama Sandoval, Elvis H. ; Valenzuela Gamarra, Luis ; Levesley, Aurora ; Pickavance, Georgia ; Melgaço, Karina - \ 2019
Scientific Reports 9 (2019). - ISSN 2045-2322

Tropical forests are known for their high diversity. Yet, forest patches do occur in the tropics where a single tree species is dominant. Such "monodominant" forests are known from all of the main tropical regions. For Amazonia, we sampled the occurrence of monodominance in a massive, basin-wide database of forest-inventory plots from the Amazon Tree Diversity Network (ATDN). Utilizing a simple defining metric of at least half of the trees ≥ 10 cm diameter belonging to one species, we found only a few occurrences of monodominance in Amazonia, and the phenomenon was not significantly linked to previously hypothesized life history traits such wood density, seed mass, ectomycorrhizal associations, or Rhizobium nodulation. In our analysis, coppicing (the formation of sprouts at the base of the tree or on roots) was the only trait significantly linked to monodominance. While at specific locales coppicing or ectomycorrhizal associations may confer a considerable advantage to a tree species and lead to its monodominance, very few species have these traits. Mining of the ATDN dataset suggests that monodominance is quite rare in Amazonia, and may be linked primarily to edaphic factors.

Managing the analytical challenges related to micro- and nanoplastics in the environment and food: filling the knowledge gaps
Alexy, Pavol ; Anklam, Elke ; Emans, Ton ; Furfari, Antonino ; Galgani, Francois ; Hanke, Georg ; Koelmans, Albert ; Pant, Rana ; Saveyn, Hans ; Sokull Kluettgen, Birgit - \ 2019
Food Additives & Contaminants. Pt. A, Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure & Risk Assessment (2019). - ISSN 1944-0049 - p. 1 - 10.
This paper identifies knowledge gaps on the sustainability and impacts of plastics and presents some recommendations from an expert group that met at a special seminar organised by the European Commission at the end of 2018. The benefits of plastics in society are unquestionable, but there is an urgent need to better manage their value chain. The recently adopted European Strategy for Plastics stressed the need to tackle the challenges related to plastics with a focus on plastic litter including microplastics. Microplastics have been detected mainly in the marine environment, but also in freshwater, soil and air. Based on today’s knowledge they may also be present in food products. Although nanoplastics have not yet been detected, it can be assumed that they are also present in the environment. This emerging issue presents challenges to better understand future research needs and the appropriate immediate actions to be taken to support the necessary societal and policy initiatives. It has become increasingly apparent that a broad and systematic approach is required to achieve sustainable actions and solutions along the entire supply chain. It is recognised that there is a pressing need for the monitoring of the environment and food globally. However, despite the number of research projects increasing, there is still a lack of suitable and validated analytical methods for detection and quantification of micro- and nanoplastics. There is also a lack of hazard and fate data which would allow for their risk assessment. Some priorities are identified in this paper to bridge the knowledge gaps for appropriate management of these challenges. At the same time it is acknowledged that there is a great complexity in the challenges that need to be tackled before a really comprehensive environmental assessment of plastics, covering their entire life cycle, will be possible.
Ancient pigs reveal a near-complete genomic turnover following their introduction to Europe
Frantz, Laurent A.F. ; Haile, James ; Lin, Audrey T. ; Scheu, Amelie ; Geörg, Christina ; Benecke, Norbert ; Alexander, Michelle ; Linderholm, Anna ; Mullin, Victoria E. ; Daly, Kevin G. ; Battista, Vincent M. ; Price, Max ; Gron, Kurt J. ; Alexandri, Panoraia ; Arbogast, Rose Marie ; Arbuckle, Benjamin ; Bǎlǎşescu, Adrian ; Barnett, Ross ; Bartosiewicz, László ; Baryshnikov, Gennady ; Bonsall, Clive ; Borić, Dušan ; Boroneanţ, Adina ; Bulatović, Jelena ; Çakirlar, Canan ; Carretero, José Miguel ; Chapman, John ; Church, Mike ; Crooijmans, Richard ; Cupere, Bea De; Detry, Cleia ; Dimitrijevic, Vesna ; Dumitraşcu, Valentin ; Plessis, Louis Du; Edwards, Ceiridwen J. ; Erek, Cevdet Merih ; Erim-Özdoǧan, Asli ; Ervynck, Anton ; Fulgione, Domenico ; Gligor, Mihai ; Götherström, Anders ; Gourichon, Lionel ; Groenen, Martien A.M. ; Helmer, Daniel ; Hongo, Hitomi ; Horwitz, Liora K. ; Irving-Pease, Evan K. ; Lebrasseur, Ophélie ; Lesur, Joséphine ; Malone, Caroline ; Manaseryan, Ninna ; Marciniak, Arkadiusz ; Martlew, Holley ; Mashkour, Marjan ; Matthews, Roger ; Matuzeviciute, Giedre Motuzaite ; Maziar, Sepideh ; Meijaard, Erik ; McGovern, Tom ; Megens, Hendrik Jan ; Miller, Rebecca ; Mohaseb, Azadeh Fatemeh ; Orschiedt, Jörg ; Orton, David ; Papathanasiou, Anastasia ; Pearson, Mike Parker ; Pinhasi, Ron ; Radmanović, Darko ; Ricaut, François Xavier ; Richards, Mike ; Sabin, Richard ; Sarti, Lucia ; Schier, Wolfram ; Sheikhi, Shiva ; Stephan, Elisabeth ; Stewart, John R. ; Stoddart, Simon ; Tagliacozzo, Antonio ; Tasić, Nenad ; Trantalidou, Katerina ; Tresset, Anne ; Valdiosera, Cristina ; Hurk, Youri Van Den; Poucke, Sophie Van; Vigne, Jean Denis ; Yanevich, Alexander ; Zeeb-Lanz, Andrea ; Triantafyllidis, Alexandros ; Gilbert, M.T.P. ; Schibler, Jörg ; Rowley-Conwy, Peter ; Zeder, Melinda ; Peters, Joris ; Cucchi, Thomas ; Bradley, Daniel G. ; Dobney, Keith ; Burger, Joachim ; Evin, Allowen ; Girdland-Flink, Linus ; Larson, Greger - \ 2019
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 116 (2019)35. - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. 17231 - 17238.
Domestication - Evolution - Gene flow - Neolithic

Archaeological evidence indicates that pig domestication had begun by ∼10,500 y before the present (BP) in the Near East, and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) suggests that pigs arrived in Europe alongside farmers ∼8,500 y BP. A few thousand years after the introduction of Near Eastern pigs into Europe, however, their characteristic mtDNA signature disappeared and was replaced by haplotypes associated with European wild boars. This turnover could be accounted for by substantial gene flow from local European wild boars, although it is also possible that European wild boars were domesticated independently without any genetic contribution from the Near East. To test these hypotheses, we obtained mtDNA sequences from 2,099 modern and ancient pig samples and 63 nuclear ancient genomes from Near Eastern and European pigs. Our analyses revealed that European domestic pigs dating from 7,100 to 6,000 y BP possessed both Near Eastern and European nuclear ancestry, while later pigs possessed no more than 4% Near Eastern ancestry, indicating that gene flow from European wild boars resulted in a near-complete disappearance of Near East ancestry. In addition, we demonstrate that a variant at a locus encoding black coat color likely originated in the Near East and persisted in European pigs. Altogether, our results indicate that while pigs were not independently domesticated in Europe, the vast majority of human-mediated selection over the past 5,000 y focused on the genomic fraction derived from the European wild boars, and not on the fraction that was selected by early Neolithic farmers over the first 2,500 y of the domestication process.

Emulation of a Detailed Urban Drainage Simulator to Be Applied for Short-Term Predictions
Mahmoodian, Mahmood ; Torres-Matallana, J.A. ; Leopold, Ulrich ; Schutz, Georges ; Clemens, Francois - \ 2019
In: New Trends in Urban Drainage Modelling - UDM 2018. - Springer Verlag (Green Energy and Technology ) - ISBN 9783319998664 - p. 592 - 596.
Emulator - Gaussian process - InfoWorks® ICM - Surrogate model - Urban drainage

The challenge of this study is to investigate on applicability of a data-driven Gaussian Process Emulator (GPE) technique to develop a surrogate model for a computationally expensive and detailed urban drainage simulator. The novelty is the consideration of (short) time series for the simulation inputs and outputs. Such simulation setup is interesting in applications such as Model Predictive Control (MPC) in which numerous, fast and frequent simulation results are required. Here, an emulator is developed to predict a storage tank’s volume in a small case study in Luxembourg. Three main inputs are considered as the GPE’s parameters: Initial volume in the tank, the level in which the outlet pump of the tank must start to work, and the time series of expected rainfall in the upcoming 2 h. The output of interest is the total volume of the storage tank for the next 24 h. A dataset of 2000 input-output scenarios were produced using different possible combinations of the inputs and running the detailed simulator (InfoWorks® ICM). 80% of the dataset were applied to train the emulator and 20% to validate the results. Distributions of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Volumetric Efficiency are presented as indicators for quantification of the emulation error. Based on the preliminary results, it can be concluded that the introduced technique is able to reduce the simulations runtime significantly while imposing some inevitable accuracy cost. More investigation is required to validate the more generic applicability of this technique for multiple outputs and interactions between different urban drainage components.

Macrophage-Specific NF-κB Activation Dynamics Can Segregate Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients
Papoutsopoulou, Stamatia ; Burkitt, Michael D. ; Bergey, François ; England, Hazel ; Hough, Rachael ; Schmidt, Lorraine ; Spiller, David G. ; White, Michael H.R. ; Paszek, Pawel ; Jackson, Dean A. ; Martins Dos Santos, Vitor A.P. ; Sellge, Gernot ; Pritchard, D.M. ; Campbell, Barry J. ; Müller, Werner ; Probert, Chris S. - \ 2019
Frontiers in Immunology 10 (2019). - ISSN 1664-3224 - 11 p.
The heterogeneous nature of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) presents challenges, particularly when choosing therapy. Activation of the NF-κB transcription factor is a highly regulated, dynamic event in IBD pathogenesis. Using a lentivirus approach, NF-κB-regulated luciferase was expressed in patient macrophages, isolated from frozen peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples. Following activation, samples could be segregated into three clusters based on the NF-κB-regulated luciferase response. The ulcerative colitis (UC) samples appeared only in the hypo-responsive Cluster 1, and in Cluster 2. Conversely, Crohn's disease (CD) patients appeared in all Clusters with their percentage being higher in the hyper-responsive Cluster 3. A positive correlation was seen between NF-κB-induced luciferase activity and the concentrations of cytokines released into medium from stimulated macrophages, but not with serum or biopsy cytokine levels. Confocal imaging of lentivirally-expressed p65 activation revealed that a higher proportion of macrophages from CD patients responded to endotoxin lipid A compared to controls. In contrast, cells from UC patients exhibited a shorter duration of NF-κB p65 subunit nuclear localization compared to healthy controls, and CD donors. Analysis of macrophage cytokine responses and patient metadata revealed a strong correlation between CD patients who smoked and hyper-activation of p65. These in vitro dynamic assays of NF-κB activation in blood-derived macrophages have the potential to segregate IBD patients into groups with different phenotypes and may therefore help determine response to therapy.
Genomic regions associated with IgE levels against culicoides spp. Antigens in three horse breeds
François, Liesbeth ; Hoskens, Hanne ; Velie, Brandon D. ; Stinckens, Anneleen ; Tinel, Susanne ; Lamberigts, Chris ; Peeters, Liesbet ; Savelkoul, Huub F.J. ; Tijhaar, Edwin ; Lindgren, Gabriella ; Janssens, Steven ; Ducro, Bart J. ; Buys, Nadine ; Schurink, Anouk - \ 2019
Genes 10 (2019)8. - ISSN 2073-4425
Belgian Warmblood horse - Diagnostic ELISA test - Genome-wide association study - Icelandic horse - IgE - Insect bite hypersensitivity - Shetland pony - Summer eczema

Insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH), which is a cutaneous allergic reaction to antigens from Culicoides spp., is the most prevalent skin disorder in horses. Misdiagnosis is possible, as IBH is usually diagnosed based on clinical signs. Our study is the first to employ IgE levels against several recombinant Culicoides spp. allergens as an objective, independent, and quantitative phenotype to improve the power to detect genetic variants that underlie IBH. Genotypes of 200 Shetland ponies, 127 Icelandic horses, and 223 Belgian Warmblood horses were analyzed while using a mixed model approach. No single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) passed the Bonferroni corrected significance threshold, but several regions were identified within and across breeds, which confirmed previously identified regions of interest and, in addition, identifying new regions of interest. Allergen-specific IgE levels are a continuous and objective phenotype that allow for more powerful analyses when compared to a case-control set-up, as more significant associations were obtained. However, the use of a higher density array seems necessary to fully employ the use of IgE levels as a phenotype. While these results still require validation in a large independent dataset, the use of allergen-specific IgE levels showed value as an objective and continuous phenotype that can deepen our understanding of the biology underlying IBH.

Patient’s characteristics and outcomes in necrotising soft-tissue infections: results from a Scandinavian, multicentre, prospective cohort study
Madsen, Martin Bruun ; Skrede, Steinar ; Perner, Anders ; Arnell, Per ; Nekludov, Michael ; Bruun, Trond ; Karlsson, Ylva ; Hansen, Marco Bo ; Polzik, Peter ; Hedetoft, Morten ; Rosén, Anders ; Saccenti, Edoardo ; Bergey, François ; Martins Dos Santos, Vitor A.P. ; Norrby-teglund, Anna ; Hyldegaard, Ole - \ 2019
Intensive Care Medicine 45 (2019)9. - ISSN 0342-4642 - p. 1241 - 1251.
Purpose: Necrotising soft-tissue infections (NSTI) are characterised by necrosis, fast progression, and high rates of morbidity and mortality, but our knowledge is primarily derived from small prospective studies and retrospective studies. Methods: We performed an international, multicentre, prospective cohort study of adults with NSTI describing patient’s characteristics and associations between baseline variables and microbiological findings, amputation, and 90-day mortality. Results: We included 409 patients with NSTI; 402 were admitted to the ICU. Cardiovascular disease [169 patients (41%)] and diabetes [98 (24%)] were the most common comorbidities; 122 patients (30%) had no comorbidity. Before surgery, bruising of the skin [210 patients (51%)] and pain requiring opioids [172 (42%)] were common. The sites most commonly affected were the abdomen/ano-genital area [140 patients (34%)] and lower extremities [126 (31%)]. Monomicrobial infection was seen in 179 patients (44%). NSTI of the upper or lower extremities was associated with monomicrobial group A streptococcus (GAS) infection, and NSTI located to the abdomen/ano-genital area was associated with polymicrobial infection. Septic shock [202 patients (50%)] and acute kidney injury [82 (20%)] were common. Amputation occurred in 22% of patients with NSTI of an extremity and was associated with higher lactate level. All-cause 90-day mortality was 18% (95% CI 14–22); age and higher lactate levels were associated with increased mortality and GAS aetiology with decreased mortality. Conclusions: Patients with NSTI were heterogeneous regarding co-morbidities, initial symptoms, infectious localisation, and microbiological findings. Higher age and lactate levels were associated with increased mortality, and GAS infection with decreased mortality.
Adaptation and application of a two-plasmid inducible CRISPR-Cas9 system in Clostridium beijerinckii
Diallo, M. ; Hocq, Rémi ; Collas, Florent ; Chartier, Gwladys ; Wasels, François ; Wijaya, Hani Surya ; Werten, Marc W.T. ; Wolbert, Emil J.H. ; Kengen, Servé W.M. ; Oost, John van der; Ferreira, Nicolas Lopes ; López-Contreras, A.M. - \ 2019
Methods : a companion to Methods in enzymology (2019). - ISSN 1046-2023 - 10 p.
Clostridium beijerinckii - CRISPR-Cas9 - Genome editing - Nuclease

Recent developments in CRISPR technologies have opened new possibilities for improving genome editing tools dedicated to the Clostridium genus. In this study we adapted a two-plasmid tool based on this technology to enable scarless modification of the genome of two reference strains of Clostridium beijerinckii producing an Acetone/Butanol/Ethanol (ABE) or an Isopropanol/Butanol/Ethanol (IBE) mix of solvents. In the NCIMB 8052 ABE-producing strain, inactivation of the SpoIIE sporulation factor encoding gene resulted in sporulation-deficient mutants, and this phenotype was reverted by complementing the mutant strain with a functional spoIIE gene. Furthermore, the fungal cellulase-encoding celA gene was inserted into the C. beijerinckii NCIMB 8052 chromosome, resulting in mutants with endoglucanase activity. A similar two-plasmid approach was next used to edit the genome of the natural IBE-producing strain C. beijerinckii DSM 6423, which has never been genetically engineered before. Firstly, the catB gene conferring thiamphenicol resistance was deleted to make this strain compatible with our dual-plasmid editing system. As a proof of concept, our dual-plasmid system was then used in C. beijerinckii DSM 6423 ΔcatB to remove the endogenous pNF2 plasmid, which led to a sharp increase of transformation efficiencies.

Biomass for bioenergy in the EU – the support framework
Banja, Manjola ; Sikkema, R. ; Jégard, Martin ; Motola, Vincenzo ; Dallemand, Jean-François - \ 2019
Energy Policy 131 (2019). - ISSN 0301-4215 - p. 215 - 228.
This paper aims to produce a quantitative approach on the overall measures and on public support framework for biomass for energy, based on the EU countries reports under RED and existing literature. The way in which the support for biomass is implemented in the EU energy sector is not similar across EU countries. Feed-in tariffs and feed-in-premiums are still the dominant support schemes for the deployment of bioelectricity, whereas subsidies remain the main support for bioheat. Furthermore, a vast number of EU countries apply mandatory blending quotas for biofuels for transport. The paper shows that biomass for energy has a key role within the EU policy support for RES, in which targets are the main drivers, together with overarching biomass guidelines to anticipate any environmental constraints. Stable support showed the highest effectiveness in the past and remains the key factor for biomass deployment beyond 2020. The renewed targets need to be accompanied by long-term support measures and a commonly shared policy vision. A further harmonization of public bioenergy support towards a single EU cleaner energy market is recommended. This implies four policy actions for all EU countries: in-depth efficiency review, integration with RED-2, compatible sustainability guidelines and local impact assessments.
Author Correction: Climatic controls of decomposition drive the global biogeography of forest-tree symbioses
Steidinger, B.S. ; Crowther, T.W. ; Liang, J. ; Nuland, M.E. Van; Werner, G.D.A. ; Reich, P.B. ; Nabuurs, G.J. ; de-Miguel, S. ; Zhou, M. ; Picard, N. ; Herault, B. ; Zhao, X. ; Zhang, C. ; Routh, D. ; Peay, K.G. ; Abegg, Meinrad ; Adou Yao, C.Y. ; Alberti, Giorgio ; Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica ; Alvarez-Davila, Esteban ; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia ; Alves, Luciana F. ; Ammer, Christian ; Antón-Fernández, Clara ; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro ; Arroyo, Luzmila ; Avitabile, Valerio ; Aymard, Gerardo ; Baker, Timothy ; Bałazy, Radomir ; Banki, Olaf ; Barroso, Jorcely ; Bastian, Meredith ; Bastin, Jean Francois ; Birigazzi, Luca ; Birnbaum, Philippe ; Bitariho, Robert ; Boeckx, Pascal ; Bongers, Frans ; Bouriaud, Olivier ; Brancalion, Pedro H.H.S. ; Decuyper, Mathieu ; Hengeveld, Geerten ; Herold, Martin ; Lu, Huicui ; Parren, Marc ; Poorter, Lourens ; Schelhaas, Mart Jan ; Sheil, Douglas ; Zagt, Roderick - \ 2019
Nature 571 (2019)7765. - ISSN 0028-0836

In this Letter, the middle initial of author G. J. Nabuurs was omitted, and he should have been associated with an additional affiliation: ‘Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands’ (now added as affiliation 182). In addition, the following two statements have been added to the Supplementary Acknowledgements. (1): ‘We would particularly like to thank The French NFI for the work of the many field teams and engineers, who have made extraordinary efforts to make forest inventory data publicly available.’ (1): ‘Sergio de Miguel benefited from a Serra- Húnter Fellowship provided by the Generalitat of Catalonia.’ Finally, the second sentence of the Methods section should have cited the French NFI, which provided a national forestry database used in our analysis, to read as follows: ‘The GFBi database consists of individual-based data that we compiled from all the regional and national GFBi forest-inventory datasets, including the French NFI (IGN—French National Forest Inventory, raw data, annual campaigns 2005 and following, https://inventaire-forestier.ign.fr/spip.php?rubrique159, site accessed on 01 January 2015)’. All of these errors have been corrected online.

Genotyping-by-sequencing and SNP-arrays are complementary for detecting quantitative trait loci by tagging different haplotypes in association studies
Negro, Sandra S. ; Millet, Emilie J. ; Madur, Delphine ; Bauland, Cyril ; Combes, Valérie ; Welcker, Claude ; Tardieu, François ; Charcosset, Alain ; Nicolas, Stéphane D. - \ 2019
BMC Plant Biology 19 (2019)1. - ISSN 1471-2229
Genome coverage - GWAS - High-throughput genotyping technologies - Linkage disequilibrium - Maize

Background: Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) array and re-sequencing technologies have different properties (e.g. calling rate, minor allele frequency profile) and drawbacks (e.g. ascertainment bias). This lead us to study their complementarity and the consequences of using them separately or combined in diversity analyses and Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). We performed GWAS on three traits (grain yield, plant height and male flowering time) measured in 22 environments on a panel of 247 F1 hybrids obtained by crossing 247 diverse dent maize inbred lines with a same flint line. The 247 lines were genotyped using three genotyping technologies (Genotyping-By-Sequencing, Illumina Infinium 50 K and Affymetrix Axiom 600 K arrays). Results: The effects of ascertainment bias of the 50 K and 600 K arrays were negligible for deciphering global genetic trends of diversity and for estimating relatedness in this panel. We developed an original approach based on linkage disequilibrium (LD) extent in order to determine whether SNPs significantly associated with a trait and that are physically linked should be considered as a single Quantitative Trait Locus (QTL) or several independent QTLs. Using this approach, we showed that the combination of the three technologies, which have different SNP distributions and densities, allowed us to detect more QTLs (gain in power) and potentially refine the localization of the causal polymorphisms (gain in resolution). Conclusions: Conceptually different technologies are complementary for detecting QTLs by tagging different haplotypes in association studies. Considering LD, marker density and the combination of different technologies (SNP-arrays and re-sequencing), the genotypic data available were most likely enough to well represent polymorphisms in the centromeric regions, whereas using more markers would be beneficial for telomeric regions.

Recent Advances in Forest Observation with Visual Interpretation of Very High-Resolution Imagery
Schepaschenko, Dmitry ; See, Linda ; Lesiv, Myroslava ; Bastin, Jean-François ; Mollicone, Danilo ; Tsendbazar, Nandin-Erdene ; Bastin, Lucy ; McCallum, Ian ; Laso Bayas, Juan Carlos ; Baklanov, Artem ; Perger, Christoph ; Dürauer, Martina ; Fritz, Steffen - \ 2019
Surveys in Geophysics 40 (2019)4. - ISSN 0169-3298 - p. 839 - 862.
The land area covered by freely available very high-resolution (VHR) imagery has grown dramatically over recent years, which has considerable relevance for forest observation and monitoring. For example, it is possible to recognize and extract a number of features related to forest type, forest management, degradation and disturbance using VHR imagery. Moreover, time series of medium-to-high-resolution imagery such as MODIS, Landsat or Sentinel has allowed for monitoring of parameters related to forest cover change. Although automatic classification is used regularly to monitor forests using medium-resolution imagery, VHR imagery and changes in web-based technology have opened up new possibilities for the role of visual interpretation in forest observation. Visual interpretation of VHR is typically employed to provide training and/or validation data for other remote sensing-based techniques or to derive statistics directly on forest cover/forest cover change over large regions. Hence, this paper reviews the state of the art in tools designed for visual interpretation of VHR, including Geo-Wiki, LACO-Wiki and Collect Earth as well as issues related to interpretation of VHR imagery and approaches to quality assurance. We have also listed a number of success stories where visual interpretation plays a crucial role, including a global forest mask harmonized with FAO FRA country statistics; estimation of dryland forest area; quantification of deforestation; national reporting to the UNFCCC; and drivers of forest change.
Genomic prediction of maize yield across European environmental conditions
Millet, Emilie J. ; Kruijer, Willem ; Coupel-Ledru, Aude ; Alvarez Prado, Santiago ; Cabrera-Bosquet, Llorenç ; Lacube, Sébastien ; Charcosset, Alain ; Welcker, Claude ; Eeuwijk, Fred van; Tardieu, François - \ 2019
Nature Genetics 51 (2019). - ISSN 1061-4036 - p. 952 - 956.

The development of germplasm adapted to changing climate is required to ensure food security1,2. Genomic prediction is a powerful tool to evaluate many genotypes but performs poorly in contrasting environmental scenarios3–7 (genotype × environment interaction), in spite of promising results for flowering time8. New avenues are opened by the development of sensor networks for environmental characterization in thousands of fields9,10. We present a new strategy for germplasm evaluation under genotype × environment interaction. Yield was dissected in grain weight and number and genotype × environment interaction in these components was modeled as genotypic sensitivity to environmental drivers. Environments were characterized using genotype-specific indices computed from sensor data in each field and the progression of phenology calibrated for each genotype on a phenotyping platform. A whole-genome regression approach for the genotypic sensitivities led to accurate prediction of yield under genotype × environment interaction in a wide range of environmental scenarios, outperforming a benchmark approach.

Tracing the ancestry of modern bread wheats
Pont, Caroline ; Leroy, Thibault ; Seidel, Michael ; Tondelli, Alessandro ; Duchemin, Wandrille ; Armisen, David ; Lang, Daniel ; Bustos-Korts, Daniela ; Goué, Nadia ; Balfourier, François ; Molnár-Láng, Márta ; Lage, Jacob ; Kilian, Benjamin ; Özkan, Hakan ; Waite, Darren ; Dyer, Sarah ; Letellier, Thomas ; Alaux, Michael ; Russell, Joanne ; Keller, Beat ; Eeuwijk, Fred van; Spannagl, Manuel ; Mayer, Klaus F.X. ; Waugh, Robbie ; Stein, Nils ; Cattivelli, Luigi ; Haberer, Georg ; Charmet, Gilles ; Salse, Jérôme - \ 2019
Nature Genetics 51 (2019)5. - ISSN 1061-4036 - p. 905 - 911.

For more than 10,000 years, the selection of plant and animal traits that are better tailored for human use has shaped the development of civilizations. During this period, bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) emerged as one of the world’s most important crops. We use exome sequencing of a worldwide panel of almost 500 genotypes selected from across the geographical range of the wheat species complex to explore how 10,000 years of hybridization, selection, adaptation and plant breeding has shaped the genetic makeup of modern bread wheats. We observe considerable genetic variation at the genic, chromosomal and subgenomic levels, and use this information to decipher the likely origins of modern day wheats, the consequences of range expansion and the allelic variants selected since its domestication. Our data support a reconciled model of wheat evolution and provide novel avenues for future breeding improvement.

Apple whole genome sequences : recent advances and new prospects
Peace, Cameron P. ; Bianco, Luca ; Troggio, Michela ; Weg, Eric van de; Howard, Nicholas P. ; Cornille, Amandine ; Durel, Charles Eric ; Myles, Sean ; Migicovsky, Zoë ; Schaffer, Robert J. ; Costes, Evelyne ; Fazio, Gennaro ; Yamane, Hisayo ; Nocker, Steve van; Gottschalk, Chris ; Costa, Fabrizio ; Chagné, David ; Zhang, Xinzhong ; Patocchi, Andrea ; Gardiner, Susan E. ; Hardner, Craig ; Kumar, Satish ; Laurens, Francois ; Bucher, Etienne ; Main, Dorrie ; Jung, Sook ; Vanderzande, Stijn - \ 2019
Horticulture Research 6 (2019)1. - ISSN 2052-7276

In 2010, a major scientific milestone was achieved for tree fruit crops: publication of the first draft whole genome sequence (WGS) for apple (Malus domestica). This WGS, v1.0, was valuable as the initial reference for sequence information, fine mapping, gene discovery, variant discovery, and tool development. A new, high quality apple WGS, GDDH13 v1.1, was released in 2017 and now serves as the reference genome for apple. Over the past decade, these apple WGSs have had an enormous impact on our understanding of apple biological functioning, trait physiology and inheritance, leading to practical applications for improving this highly valued crop. Causal gene identities for phenotypes of fundamental and practical interest can today be discovered much more rapidly. Genome-wide polymorphisms at high genetic resolution are screened efficiently over hundreds to thousands of individuals with new insights into genetic relationships and pedigrees. High-density genetic maps are constructed efficiently and quantitative trait loci for valuable traits are readily associated with positional candidate genes and/or converted into diagnostic tests for breeders. We understand the species, geographical, and genomic origins of domesticated apple more precisely, as well as its relationship to wild relatives. The WGS has turbo-charged application of these classical research steps to crop improvement and drives innovative methods to achieve more durable, environmentally sound, productive, and consumer-desirable apple production. This review includes examples of basic and practical breakthroughs and challenges in using the apple WGSs. Recommendations for “what’s next” focus on necessary upgrades to the genome sequence data pool, as well as for use of the data, to reach new frontiers in genomics-based scientific understanding of apple.

Biotechnology of health-promoting bacteria
Douillard, François P. ; Vos, Willem M. de - \ 2019
Biotechnology Advances 37 (2019)6. - ISSN 0734-9750
Applied genomics - Gut microbiota - Next-generation therapeutic bacteria - Probiotics

Over the last decade, there has been an increasing scientific and public interest in bacteria that may positively contribute to human gut health and well-being. This interest is reflected by the ever-increasing number of developed functional food products containing health-promoting bacteria and reaching the market place as well as by the growing revenue and profits of notably bacterial supplements worldwide. Traditionally, the origin of probiotic-marketed bacteria was limited to a rather small number of bacterial species that mostly belong to lactic acid bacteria and bifidobacteria. Intensifying research efforts on the human gut microbiome offered novel insights into the role of human gut microbiota in health and disease, while also providing a deep and increasingly comprehensive understanding of the bacterial communities present in this complex ecosystem and their interactions with the gut-liver-brain axis. This resulted in rational and systematic approaches to select novel health-promoting bacteria or to engineer existing bacteria with enhanced probiotic properties. In parallel, the field of gut microbiomics developed into a fertile framework for the identification, isolation and characterization of a phylogenetically diverse array of health-promoting bacterial species, also called next-generation therapeutic bacteria. The present review will address these developments with specific attention for the selection and improvement of a selected number of health-promoting bacterial species and strains that are extensively studied or hold promise for future food or pharma product development.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
Schewe, Jacob ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Reyer, Christopher ; Zhao, Fang ; Ciais, Philippe ; Elliott, Joshua ; Francois, Louis ; Huber, Veronika ; Lotze, Heike K. ; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ; Vliet, Michelle T.H. Van; Vautard, Robert ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Breuer, Lutz ; Büchner, Matthias ; Carozza, David A. ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Coll, Marta ; Deryng, Delphine ; Wit, Allard De; Eddy, Tyler D. ; Folberth, Christian ; Frieler, Katja ; Friend, Andrew D. ; Gerten, Dieter ; Gudmundsson, Lukas ; Hanasaki, Naota ; Ito, Akihiko ; Khabarov, Nikolay ; Kim, Hyungjun ; Lawrence, Peter ; Morfopoulos, Catherine ; Müller, Christoph ; Müller Schmied, Hannes ; Orth, René ; Ostberg, Sebastian ; Pokhrel, Yadu ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. ; Sakurai, Gen ; Satoh, Yusuke ; Schmid, Erwin ; Stacke, Tobias ; Steenbeek, Jeroen ; Steinkamp, Jörg ; Tang, Qiuhong ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tittensor, Derek P. ; Volkholz, Jan ; Wang, Xuhui ; Warszawski, Lila - \ 2019
Nature Communications 10 (2019). - ISSN 2041-1723
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
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