Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
Schewe, Jacob ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Reyer, Christopher ; Zhao, Fang ; Ciais, Philippe ; Elliott, Joshua ; Francois, Louis ; Huber, Veronika ; Lotze, Heike K. ; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ; Vliet, Michelle T.H. Van; Vautard, Robert ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Breuer, Lutz ; Büchner, Matthias ; Carozza, David A. ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Coll, Marta ; Deryng, Delphine ; Wit, Allard De; Eddy, Tyler D. ; Folberth, Christian ; Frieler, Katja ; Friend, Andrew D. ; Gerten, Dieter ; Gudmundsson, Lukas ; Hanasaki, Naota ; Ito, Akihiko ; Khabarov, Nikolay ; Kim, Hyungjun ; Lawrence, Peter ; Morfopoulos, Catherine ; Müller, Christoph ; Müller Schmied, Hannes ; Orth, René ; Ostberg, Sebastian ; Pokhrel, Yadu ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. ; Sakurai, Gen ; Satoh, Yusuke ; Schmid, Erwin ; Stacke, Tobias ; Steenbeek, Jeroen ; Steinkamp, Jörg ; Tang, Qiuhong ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tittensor, Derek P. ; Volkholz, Jan ; Wang, Xuhui ; Warszawski, Lila - \ 2019
Nature Communications 10 (2019). - ISSN 2041-1723
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
A 7000-year history of changing plant trait composition in an Amazonian landscape; the role of humans and climate
Sande, M.T. van der; Gosling, W. ; Correa-Metrio, A. ; Prado-Junior, Jamir A. ; Poorter, L. ; Oliveira, R.S. ; Mazzei, Luca ; Bush, M.B. - \ 2019
Ecology Letters 22 (2019)6. - ISSN 1461-023X - p. 925 - 935.
Tropical forests are shifting in species and trait composition, but the main underlying causes remain unclear because of the short temporal scales of most studies. Here, we develop a novel approach by linking functional trait data with 7000 years of forest dynamics from a fossil pollen record of Lake Sauce in the Peruvian Amazon. We evaluate how climate and human disturbances affect community trait composition. We found weak relationships between environmental conditions and traits at the taxon level, but strong effects for community‐mean traits. Overall, community‐mean traits were more responsive to human disturbances than to climate change; human‐induced erosion increased the dominance of dense‐wooded, non‐zoochorous species with compound leaves, and human‐induced fire increased the dominance of tall, zoochorous taxa with large seeds and simple leaves. This information can help to enhance our understanding of forest responses to past environmental changes, and improve predictions of future changes in tropical forest composition.
Data from: A 7000-year history of changing plant trait composition in an Amazonian landscape; the role of humans and climate
Sande, M.T. van der; Gosling, W. ; Correa-Metrio, A. ; Prado-Junior, J. ; Poorter, L. ; Oliveira, R.S. ; Mazzei, L. ; Bush, M. - \ 2019
Amazon - charcoal - climate change - erosion - fire - fossil pollen - functional traits - human disturbance - Peru - tropical forest
Tropical forests are shifting in species and trait composition, but the main underlying causes remain unclear because of the short temporal scales of most studies. Here, we develop a novel approach by linking functional trait data with 7000 years of forest dynamics from a fossil pollen record of Lake Sauce in the Peruvian Amazon. We evaluate how climate and human disturbances affect community trait composition. We found weak relationships between environmental conditions and traits at the taxon level, but strong effects for community-mean traits. Overall, community-mean traits were more responsive to human disturbances than to climate change; human-induced erosion increased the dominance of dense-wooded, non-zoochorous species with compound leaves, and human-induced fire increased the dominance of tall, zoochorous taxa with large seeds and simple leaves. This information can help to enhance our understanding of forest responses to past environmental changes, and improve predictions of future changes in tropical forest composition.
Next generation physiologically based kinetic (NG-PBK) models in support of regulatory decision making
Paini, A. ; Leonard, J.A. ; Joossens, E. ; Bessems, J.G.M. ; Desalegn, A. ; Dorne, J.L. ; Gosling, J.P. ; Heringa, M.B. ; Klaric, M. ; Kliment, T. ; Kramer, N.I. ; Loizou, G. ; Louisse, J. ; Lumen, A. ; Madden, J.C. ; Patterson, E.A. ; Proença, S. ; Punt, A. ; Setzer, R.W. ; Suciu, N. ; Troutman, J. ; Yoon, M. ; Worth, A. ; Tan, Y.M. - \ 2019
Computational Toxicology 9 (2019). - ISSN 2468-1113 - p. 61 - 72.
In silico - In vitro - PBPK - PBTK - Physiologically based kinetic models - Toxicokinetics

The fields of toxicology and chemical risk assessment seek to reduce, and eventually replace, the use of animals for the prediction of toxicity in humans. In this context, physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling based on in vitro and in silico kinetic data has the potential to a play significant role in reducing animal testing, by providing a methodology capable of incorporating in vitro human data to facilitate the development of in vitro to in vivo extrapolation of hazard information. In the present article, we discuss the challenges in: 1) applying PBK modelling to support regulatory decision making under the toxicology and risk-assessment paradigm shift towards animal replacement; 2) constructing PBK models without in vivo animal kinetic data, while relying solely on in vitro or in silico methods for model parameterization; and 3) assessing the validity and credibility of PBK models built largely using non-animal data. The strengths, uncertainties, and limitations of PBK models developed using in vitro or in silico data are discussed in an effort to establish a higher degree of confidence in the application of such models in a regulatory context. The article summarises the outcome of an expert workshop hosted by the European Commission Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) – European Union Reference Laboratory for Alternatives to Animal Testing (EURL ECVAM), on “Physiologically-Based Kinetic modelling in risk assessment – reaching a whole new level in regulatory decision-making” held in Ispra, Italy, in November 2016, along with results from an international survey conducted in 2017 and recently reported activities occurring within the PBK modelling field. The discussions presented herein highlight the potential applications of next generation (NG)-PBK modelling, based on new data streams.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
Frieler, Katja ; Lange, Stefan ; Piontek, Franziska ; Reyer, Christopher P.O. ; Schewe, Jacob ; Warszawski, Lila ; Zhao, Fang ; Chini, Louise ; Denvil, Sebastien ; Emanuel, Kerry ; Geiger, Tobias ; Halladay, Kate ; Hurtt, George ; Mengel, Matthias ; Murakami, Daisgbre ; Ostberg, Sebastian ; Popp, Alexander ; Riva, Riccardo ; Stevanovic, Miodrag ; SuzGBRi, Tatsuo ; Volkholz, Jan ; Burke, Eleanor ; Ciais, Philippe ; Ebi, Kristie ; Eddy, Tyler D. ; Elliott, Joshua ; Galbraith, Eric ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Hattermann, Fred ; Hickler, Thomas ; Hinkel, Jochen ; Hof, Christian ; Huber, Veronika ; Jägermeyr, Jonas ; Krysanova, Valentina ; Marcé, Rafael ; Müller Schmied, Hannes ; Mouratiadou, Ioanna ; Pierson, Don ; Tittensor, Derek P. ; Vautard, Robert ; Vliet, Michelle Van; Biber, Matthias F. ; Betts, Richard A. ; Leon Bodirsky, Benjamin ; Deryng, Delphine ; Frolking, Steve ; Jones, Chris D. ; Lotze, Heike K. ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Sahajpal, Ritvik ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Tian, Hanqin ; Yamagata, Yoshiki - \ 2017
Geoscientific Model Development 10 (2017)12. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 4321 - 4345.
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5ĝ€°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5ĝ€°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models
Zhao, Fang ; Veldkamp, Ted I.E. ; Frieler, Katja ; Schewe, Jacob ; Ostberg, Sebastian ; Willner, Sven ; Schauberger, Bernhard ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Schmied, Hannes Müller ; Portmann, Felix T. ; Leng, Guoyong ; Huang, Maoyi ; Liu, Xingcai ; Tang, Qiuhong ; Hanasaki, Naota ; Biemans, Hester ; Gerten, Dieter ; Satoh, Yusuke ; Pokhrel, Yadu ; Stacke, Tobias ; Ciais, Philippe ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Ducharne, Agnes ; Guimberteau, Matthieu ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Kim, Hyungjun ; Yamazaki, Dai - \ 2017
Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017)7. - ISSN 1748-9318
daily runoff - flood - global hydrological models - GRDC - ISIMIP - peak river discharge - river routing
Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge - which is crucial in flood simulations - has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971-2010) within the ISIMIP2a project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about 2/3 of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.
Intercomparison of global river discharge simulations focusing on dam operation - Multiple models analysis in two case-study river basins, Missouri-Mississippi and Green-Colorado
Masaki, Yoshimitsu ; Hanasaki, Naota ; Biemans, Hester ; Müller Schmied, Hannes ; Tang, Qiuhong ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Hijioka, Yasuaki - \ 2017
Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017)5. - ISSN 1748-9318
flood control - flow regimes - reservoir - river discharge

We performed an intercomparison of river discharge regulated by dams under four meteorological forcings among five global hydrological models for a historical period by simulation. This is the first global multimodel intercomparison study on dam-regulated river flow. Although the simulations were conducted globally, the Missouri-Mississippi and Green-Colorado Rivers were chosen as case-study sites in this study. The hydrological models incorporate generic schemes of dam operation, not specific to a certain dam. We examined river discharge on a longitudinal section of river channels to investigate the effects of dams on simulated discharge, especially at the seasonal time scale. We found that the magnitude of dam regulation differed considerably among the hydrological models. The difference was attributable not only to dam operation schemes but also to the magnitude of simulated river discharge flowing into dams. That is, although a similar algorithm of dam operation schemes was incorporated in different hydrological models, the magnitude of dam regulation substantially differed among the models. Intermodel discrepancies tended to decrease toward the lower reaches of these river basins, which means model dependence is less significant toward lower reaches. These case-study results imply that, intermodel comparisons of river discharge should be made at different locations along the river's course to critically examine the performance of hydrological models because the performance can vary with the locations.

Do Arctic breeding geese track or overtake a green wave during spring migration?
Si, Y. ; Xin, Q. ; Boer, W.F. de; Gong, P. ; Ydenberg, R.C. ; Prins, H.H.T. - \ 2015
Scientific Reports 5 (2015). - ISSN 2045-2322
goose branta-leucopsis - russian barnacle geese - anser-brachyrhynchus - time-series - brent geese - large herbivores - forage quality - bird migration - decision - bernicla
Geese breeding in the Arctic have to do so in a short time-window while having sufficient body reserves. Hence, arrival time and body condition upon arrival largely influence breeding success. The green wave hypothesis posits that geese track a successively delayed spring flush of plant development on the way to their breeding sites. The green wave has been interpreted as representing either the onset of spring or the peak in nutrient biomass. However, geese tend to adopt a partial capital breeding strategy and might overtake the green wave to accomplish a timely arrival on the breeding site. To test the green wave hypothesis, we link the satellite-derived onset of spring and peak in nutrient biomass with the stopover schedule of individual Barnacle Geese. We find that geese track neither the onset of spring nor the peak in nutrient biomass. Rather, they arrive at the southernmost stopover site around the peak in nutrient biomass, and gradually overtake the green wave to match their arrival at the breeding site with the local onset of spring, thereby ensuring gosling benefit from the peak in nutrient biomass. Our approach for estimating plant development stages is critical in testing the migration strategies of migratory herbivores.
Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP
Davie, J.C.S. ; Falloon, P.D. ; Kahana, R. ; Dankers, R. ; Betts, R. ; Portmann, F.T. ; Wisser, D. ; Clark, D.B. ; Ito, A. ; Masaki, Y. ; Nishina, K. ; Fekete, B. ; Tessler, Z. ; Wada, Y. ; Liu, X. ; Tang, Q. ; Hagemann, S. ; Stacke, T. ; Pavlick, R. ; Schaphoff, S. ; Gosling, S.N. ; Franssen, W.H.P. ; Arnell, N. - \ 2013
Earth System dynamics 4 (2013)2. - ISSN 2190-4979 - p. 359 - 374.
climate-change - carbon-dioxide - integrated model - hadgem2 family - surface-water - river flow - vegetation - impact - co2 - evapotranspiration
Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.
Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models
Hagemann, S. ; Chen, Cui ; Clark, D.B. ; Folwell, S. ; Gosling, S. ; Haddeland, I. ; Hanasaki, N. ; Heinke, J. ; Ludwig, F. - \ 2013
Earth System dynamics 4 (2013). - ISSN 2190-4979 - p. 129 - 144.
Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change. But there are also areas 10 showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some mid-latitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi river basin, Southern Africa, Southern China and south 15 eastern Australia.
Global Multimodel Analsysis of Drought in Runoff for the Second Half of the Twentieth Century
Huijgevoort, M.H.J. van; Hazenberg, P. ; Lanen, H.A.J. van; Teuling, A.J. ; Clark, D.B. ; Folwell, S. ; Gosling, S. ; Uijlenhoet, R. - \ 2013
Journal of Hydrometeorology 14 (2013)5. - ISSN 1525-755X - p. 1535 - 1552.
environment simulator jules - conterminous united-states - hydrological drought - model description - scale - ensemble - streamflow - europe - variability - algorithm
During the past decades large-scale models have been developed to simulate global and continental terrestrial water cycles. It is an open question whether these models are suitable to capture hydrological drought, in terms of runoff, on a global scale. A multimodel ensemble analysis was carried out to evaluate if 10 such large-scale models agree on major drought events during the second half of the twentieth century. Time series of monthly precipitation, monthly total runoff from 10 global hydrological models, and their ensemble median have been used to identify drought. Temporal development of area in drought for various regions across the globe was investigated. Model spread was largest in regions with low runoff and smallest in regions with high runoff. In vast regions, correlation between runoff drought derived from the models and meteorological drought was found to be low. This indicated that models add information to the signal derived from precipitation and that runoff drought cannot directly be determined from precipitation data alone in global drought analyses with a constant aggregation period. However, duration and spatial extent of major drought events differed between models. Some models showed a fast runoff response to rainfall, which led to deviations from reported drought events in slowly responding hydrological systems. By using an ensemble of models, this fast runoff response was partly overcome and delay in drought propagating from meteorological drought to drought in runoff was included. Finally, an ensemble of models also allows for consideration of uncertainty associated with individual model structures.
Flexibility in faithfulness of Dark-bellied Brent Geese, Branta b. bernicla to moulting sites
Ebbinge, B.S. ; Prokosch, P. ; Spaans, B. ; Müskens, G.J.D.M. ; Bom, R. ; Kokorev, Y. ; Syroechkovskiy, E.E. - \ 2013
Wildfowl 2013 (2013)3. - ISSN 0954-6324 - p. 116 - 134.
The distribution of Dark-bellied Brent Geese Branta b. bernicla moulting on the Taimyr Peninsula, in the Russian arctic, varies between years depending on whether the birds had a successful breeding season. Counts made of moulting flocks show that major shifts in numbers occur, particularly in non-breeding years, when in line with Salomonsen’s (1968) hypothesis a higher proportion of the population moults further north. For instance, the delta of the Lower Taimyr River in the northern part of the Taimyr Peninsula held 10-times more moulting Dark-bellied Brent Geese in 1989, a non-breeding year, than it did in the good 1990 breeding season. At a more local scale, in good breeding years family groups with small goslings tend to move away from breeding islands in the Pyasina Delta, western Taimyr, to avoid gosling predation by Taimyr Gulls Larus taimyrensis which nest in colonies on the same islands, whereas in poor breeding years adult geese concentrate on these same islands to moult and avoid the mainland sites used for moulting in good breeding years. Failed breeders have greater freedom than parent birds to choose where to moult as successful breeders remain with their goslings to protect and guide them to the safest nursery and moult areas. Re-captures of ringed Darkbellied Brent Geese at a moulting site in the Pyasina Delta found that, in poor breeding years, up to one-fifth the birds had moulted at the site previously, but that the majority of ringed birds known to be still alive were not site-faithful to their moulting grounds.
Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogram
Truong, N.P. ; Heuvelink, G.B.M. ; Gosling, J.P. - \ 2013
Computers and Geosciences 51 (2013). - ISSN 0098-3004 - p. 390 - 399.
spatial covariance parameters - residual maximum-likelihood - probability-distributions - robust estimation - soil properties - models - knowledge - inference - opinion - scale
The variogram is the keystone of geostatistics. Estimation of the variogram is deficient and difficult when there are no or too few observations available due to budget constraints or physical and temporal obstacles. In such cases, expert knowledge can be an important source of information. Expert knowledge can also fulfil the increasing demand for an a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling optimization. Formal expert elicitation provides a sound scientific basis to reliably and consistently extract knowledge from experts. In this study, we aimed at applying existing statistical expert elicitation techniques to extract the variogram of a regionalized variable that is assumed to have either a multivariate normal or lognormal spatial probability distribution from expert knowledge. To achieve this, we developed an elicitation protocol and implemented it as a web-based tool to facilitate the elicitation of beliefs from multiple experts. Our protocol has two main rounds: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. The web-based tool has three main components: a web interface for expert elicitation and feedback; a component for statistical computation and mathematical pooling of multiple experts’ knowledge; and a database management component. Results from a test case study show that the protocol is adequate and that the online elicitation tool functions satisfactorily. The web-based tool is free to use and supports scientists to conveniently elicit the variogram of spatial random variables from experts. The source code is available from the journal FTP site under the GNU General Public License.
Hitting Hotspots: Spatial Targeting of Malaria for Control and Elimination
Bousema, T. ; Griffin, J.T. ; Sauerwein, R.W. ; Smith, D.L. ; Churcher, T.S. ; Takken, W. ; Ghani, A. ; Drakeley, C. ; Gosling, R. - \ 2012
PLOS Medicine 9 (2012)1. - ISSN 1549-1676
plasmodium-falciparum - anopheles-gambiae - rural area - vector populations - control programs - young-children - urban malaria - west-africa - transmission - infection
Current malaria elimination guidelines are based on the concept that malaria transmission becomes heterogeneous in the later phases of malaria elimination [1]. In the pre-elimination and elimination phases, interventions have to be targeted to entire villages or towns with higher malaria incidence until only individual episodes of malaria remain and become the centre of attention [1]. With increasing evidence of clustering of malaria episodes within villages, we argue that there is an intermediate step. Heterogeneity in malaria transmission within villages is present long before areas enter the pre-elimination phase, and identifying and targeting hotspots of malaria transmission should form the cornerstone of both successful malaria control and malaria elimination.
Expert elicitation for the variogram
Truong, N.P. ; Heuvelink, G.B.M. ; Gosling, J.P. - \ 2012
In: Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 10-13 July 2012, Florianopolos, Brazil. - Federal University of Santa Catarina - p. 251 - 256.
The variogram is the keystone of Kriging. Much research has been devoted to modelling the variogram from structural analysis of observations. However, there are many instances when the variogram is needed and there are no observations to base on. This can be due to budget constraints, physical or temporal obstacles, or a demand for a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling design. Using expert knowledge that is elicited with a formal statistical expert elicitation procedure is suggested. In this study, we designed a protocol for a wellstructured elicitation procedure to elicit the variogram from expert knowledge. The protocol has two main stages: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. We built a web-based tool to facilitate the procedure. A case study was carried out to quantify spatial accuracy of a legacy map of the volumetric soil water content at field capacity. Expert elicitation returns a variogram that has a Matérn model shape with nugget = 0.45, partial sill = 54.57, range = 25410 meters and kappa = 0.40. The results show that the online elicitation tool satisfactorily captured expert opinion although, currently, it is only a prototype that needs to be further developed.
Expert elicitation of the variogram
Truong, N.P. ; Heuvelink, G.B.M. ; Gosling, J.P. - \ 2011
Web Based Expert Elicitation of Uncertainties in Environmental Model Inputs
Bastin, L. ; Williams, M. ; Gosling, J.P. ; Truong, N.P. ; Cornford, D. ; Heuvelink, G.B.M. ; Achard, F. - \ 2011
Geophysical Research Abstracts 13 (2011). - ISSN 1029-7006 - p. 5384 - 5384.
Projected hydrological changes in the 21st century and related uncertainties obtained from a multi-model ensemble
Chen, C. ; Hagemann, S. ; Clark, D. ; Folwell, S. ; Gosling, S. ; Haddeland, I. ; Hanasaki, N. ; Heinke, J. ; Ludwig, F. ; Voss, F. ; Wiltshire, A. - \ 2011
Wageningen : Wageningen Universiteit
Expert elicitation of the variogram
Truong, N.P. ; Heuvelink, G.B.M. ; Gosling, J.P. - \ 2011
In: Pedometrics 2011 - Innovations in Pedometrics; Book of abstracts, August 30 - September 2, 2011, Prague, Czech Republic. - Prague : Czech University of Life Sciences - ISBN 9788021321953 - p. 48 - 48.
Expert elicitation of the variogram P. Truong, G.B.M. Heuvelink, J.P. Gosling gerard.heuvelink@wur.nl Wageningen University, Department of Environmental Sciences, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands The variogram is the key instrument of geostatistics. Estimation of the variogram typically relies on a sufficiently large number of observations of the target variable. However, budget constraints may cause that a too sparse data set is used to estimate the variogram, which will impair the subsequent geostatistical analysis. In some cases it may even be impossible to collect observations to estimate the variogram, such as when in scenario studies the spatial variability of a variable defined in the future is to be assessed. In addition, prior information about the variogram may also be very useful to design an optimal sampling scheme in field surveys and in Bayesian geostatistics. It is, therefore, sensible to explore approaches to estimate the variogram other than through a structural analysis of observations. In this paper we explore how the variogram can be elicited from experts. Experts can be very knowledgeable about the spatial variability of target variables, but directly asking experts about the nugget, sill, range and shape of the variogram may not be sensible because many experts are not familiar with these concepts. The variogram is typically estimated by the average squared increments of the target variable over various lags, but robust estimation of the variogram uses the median of the absolute differences of the target variable over distances. Statistical expert elicitation is well developed to extract the median of uncertain quantities from experts. Thus, the median of the absolute increment is a sensible target quantity of the elicitation procedure. We developed an expert elicitation methodology on this principle, by eliciting the median for multiple separation distances and fitting a variogram. First, a protocol of a well-structured elicitation procedure was designed. Next a web-based tool for online elicitation was built that is composed of three main components: (1) web-GIS interface for elicitation and feedback, (2) statistical calculation and mathematical aggregation to merge the opinions of multiple experts and (3) database management. The prototype was tested and evaluated in a case study on elicitation of the variogram of soil pH. The evaluation showed that the online elicitation tool is satisfactory, although currently it is only a prototype that needs to be further developed.
Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: Setup and first results
Haddeland, I. ; Clark, D. ; Franssen, W.H.P. ; Ludwig, F. ; Voss, F. ; Arnell, N.W. ; Bertrand, N. ; Best, M. ; Folwell, S. ; Gerten, D. ; Gomes, S. ; Gosling, S. ; Hagemann, S. ; Hanasaki, N. ; Harding, R. ; Heinke, J. ; Kabat, P. ; Koirala, S. ; Oki, T. ; Polcher, J. ; Stacke, T. ; Viterbo, P. ; Weedon, G.P. ; Yeh, P. - \ 2011
Journal of Hydrometeorology 12 (2011)5. - ISSN 1525-755X - p. 869 - 884.
land-surface scheme - space-time climate - parameterization schemes - integrated model - project - simulation - resources - runoff - gcm - precipitation
Six land surface models and five global hydrological models participate in a model intercomparison project [Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP)], which for the first time compares simulation results of these different classes of models in a consistent way. In this paper, the simulation setup is described and aspects of the multimodel global terrestrial water balance are presented. All models were run at 0.5° spatial resolution for the global land areas for a 15-yr period (1985–99) using a newly developed global meteorological dataset. Simulated global terrestrial evapotranspiration, excluding Greenland and Antarctica, ranges from 415 to 586 mm yr-1 (from 60 000 to 85 000 km3 yr-1), and simulated runoff ranges from 290 to 457 mm yr-1 (from 42 000 to 66 000 km3 yr-1). Both the mean and median runoff fractions for the land surface models are lower than those of the global hydrological models, although the range is wider. Significant simulation differences between land surface and global hydrological models are found to be caused by the snow scheme employed. The physically based energy balance approach used by land surface models generally results in lower snow water equivalent values than the conceptual degree-day approach used by global hydrological models. Some differences in simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are explained by model parameterizations, although the processes included and parameterizations used are not distinct to either land surface models or global hydrological models. The results show that differences between models are a major source of uncertainty. Climate change impact studies thus need to use not only multiple climate models but also some other measure of uncertainty (e.g., multiple impact models).
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