Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Drought at the global scale in the 2nd part of the 20th century (1963-2001)
Huijgevoort, M.H.J. van; Hazenberg, P. ; Lanen, H.A.J. van; Bertrand, N. ; Clark, D. ; Folwell, S. ; Gosling, S. ; Hanasaki, N. ; Heinke, J. ; Stacke, T. ; Voss, F. - \ 2011
Brussel : European Commission (Technical report / WATCH no. 42) - 40
droogte - hydrologische gegevens - aardoppervlak - modellen - hydrologie - klimatologie - geschiedenis - drought - hydrological data - land surface - models - hydrology - climatology - history
The large impacts of drought on society, economy and environment urge for a thorough investigation. A good knowledge of past drought events is important for both understanding of the processes causing drought, as well as to provide reliability assessments for drought projections for the future. Preferably, the investigation of historic drought events should rely on observations. Unfortunately, for a global scale these detailed observations are often not available. Therefore, the outcome of global hydrological models (GHMs) and off-line land surface models (LSMs) is used to assess droughts. In this study we have investigated to what extent simulated gridded time series from these large-scale models capture historic hydrological drought events. Results of ten different models, both GHMs and LSMs, made available by the WATCH project, were compared. All models are run on a global 0.5 degree grid for the period 1963-2000 with the same meteorological forcing data (WATCH forcing data). To identify hydrological drought events, the monthly aggregated total runoff values were used. Different methods were developed to identify spatio-temporal drought characteristics. General drought characteristics for each grid cell, as for example the average drought duration, were compared. These characteristics show that when comparing absolute values the models give substantially different results, whereas relative values lead to more or less the same drought pattern. Next to the general drought characteristics, some documented major historical drought events (one for each continent) were selected and described in more detail. For each drought event, the simulated drought clusters (spatial events) and their characteristics are given for one month during the event. It can be concluded that most major drought events are captured by all models. However, the spatial extent of the drought events differ substantially between the models. In general the models show a fast reaction to rainfall and therefore also capture drought events caused by large rainfall anomalies. More research is still needed, since here we only looked at a few selected number of documented drought events spread over the globe. To assess more in detail if these large-scale models are able to capture drought, additional quantitative analyses are needed together with a more elaborated comparison against observed drought events.
Drought at the global scale in the 21st Century
Corzo Perez, G. ; Lanen, H.A.J. van; Bertrand, N. ; Chen, C. ; Clark, D. ; Folwell, S. ; Gosling, S. ; Hanasaki, N. ; Heinke, J. ; Voss, F. - \ 2011
Brussel : European Commission (Technical report / WATCH no. 43) - 117
Expert elicitation of the variogram
Truong, N.P. ; Heuvelink, G.B.M. ; Gosling, J.P. - \ 2010
Analysis of population development and effectiveness of mnagement in resident greylag geese Anser anser in the Netherlands
Klok, T.C. ; Turnhout, C. van; Willems, F. ; Voslamber, B. - \ 2010
Animal Biology 60 (2010)4. - ISSN 1570-7555 - p. 373 - 393.
density-dependence - brent geese - demographic-models - branta-canadensis - south sweden - goose - conservation - growth - scotland - canada
The resident Greylag goose population in the Netherlands has strongly increased in number which led to conflict with agricultural interests, public concern on goose hunting and legal debate on the need to regulate geese. Such a debate can be facilitated by insight in population development and the effectiveness of management options. In this paper we analyse the historic population development and apply density independent and density dependent models to investigate possible future population development and the impact of management on this development. We explored the influence of density dependence by applying the amount of gosling rearing habitat as the first limiting factor. The models were parameterised with life-history data of two well studied populations during their exponential growth phase as a proxy for the total Dutch population for which life-history data are unavailable. The effectiveness of two management options aimed to reduce population growth: culling birds and egg reduction are assessed with these models. The developed models can be used as a management tool to evaluate the consequences of different measures in advance of their implementation. The results show significant positive growth rates which approximate the growth rate of the total Dutch population based on census data. With density dependence in the amount of gosling rearing habitat the population will grow for another one or two decades before it stabilizes. Of the two considered management options culling birds is more effective in reducing bird numbers than egg reduction. This conclusion holds both under density independent and density dependent conditions.
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