Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
Leclère, David ; Obersteiner, Michael ; Barrett, Mike ; Butchart, Stuart H.M. ; Chaudhary, Abhishek ; Palma, Adriana De; DeClerck, Fabrice A.J. ; Marco, Moreno Di; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Dürauer, Martina ; Freeman, Robin ; Harfoot, Michael ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Hellweg, Stefanie ; Hilbers, Jelle P. ; Hill, Samantha L.L. ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Jennings, Nancy ; Krisztin, Tamás ; Mace, Georgina M. ; Ohashi, Haruka ; Popp, Alexander ; Purvis, Andy ; Schipper, Aafke M. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Valin, Hugo ; Meijl, Hans van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Visconti, Piero ; Alkemade, Rob ; Almond, Rosamunde ; Bunting, Gill ; Burgess, Neil D. ; Cornell, Sarah E. ; Fulvio, Fulvio Di; Ferrier, Simon ; Fritz, Steffen ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Grooten, Monique ; Harwood, Thomas ; Havlík, Petr ; Herrero, Mario ; Hoskins, Andrew J. ; Jung, Martin ; Kram, Tom ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Matsui, Tetsuya ; Meyer, Carsten ; Nel, Deon ; Newbold, Tim ; Schmidt-Traub, Guido ; Stehfest, Elke ; Strassburg, Bernardo B.N. ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Ware, Chris ; Watson, James E.M. ; Wu, Wenchao ; Young, Lucy - \ 2020
Nature 585 (2020). - ISSN 0028-0836 - p. 551 - 556.
Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.
The percentage of total agricultural area under maize, rice, wheat, vegetables, pulses and fruit production, by country, subject to water scarcity in 2050 as estimated from a multi-model ensemble
Fitton, N. ; Alexander, P. ; Arnell, N. ; Bajzelj, B. ; Calvin, K. ; Doelman, J. ; Gerber, J.S. ; Havlik, P. ; Hasegawa, T. ; Herrero, M. ; Krisztin, T. ; Meijl, H. van; Powell, T. ; Sands, R. ; Stehfest, E. ; West, P.C. ; Smith, P. - \ 2020
University of Aberdeen
agriculture production - commodity production - future land availability - global analysis - water scarcity
Projections of global changes in water scarcity with the current extent of maize, rice, wheat, vegetables, pulses and fruit production commodities were combined to identify the potential country level vulnerabilities of cropland land to water scarcity in 2050. The data relate to an analysis of the impact changes in water availability will have on maize, rice, wheat, vegetables, pulses and fruit production commodities availability in 2050.
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?
Zeist, Willem-Jan van; Stehfest, Elke ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Valin, Hugo ; Calvin, Katherine ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Havlik, Petr ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Kyle, Page ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel ; Meijl, Hans van; Popp, Alexander ; Sulser, Timothy B. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Verhagen, Willem ; Wiebe, Keith - \ 2020
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 64 (2020). - ISSN 0959-3780
Attainable yield - Crop yield projections - Integrated assessment - Land use - Potential yield - Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)
Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and not considering future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. This is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. On a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.
Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation
Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Havlík, Petr ; Valin, Hugo ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Kyle, Page ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Müller, Christoph ; Ochi, Yuki ; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio ; Stehfest, Elke ; Sulser, Timothy B. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Takakura, Junya ; Meijl, Hans van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Wiebe, Keith ; Witzke, Peter - \ 2020
Nature Climate Change 10 (2020)5. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 420 - 421.
Modelling alternative futures of global food security: Insights from FOODSECURE
Meijl, Hans van; Shutes, Lindsay ; Valin, Hugo ; Stehfest, Elke ; Dijk, Michiel van; Kuiper, Marijke ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Havlik, Petr - \ 2020
Global Food Security 25 (2020). - ISSN 2211-9124
Environment - Food security - Integrated assessment - Long run - Scenario analysis
Global economic models have been increasingly used to project food and agricultural developments for long term-time horizons, but food security aspects have often been limited to food availability projections. In this paper, we propose a broader framework to explore the future of food and nutrition security with a focus on food availability, food access, and a reasonable proxy for food utilisation. This framework is applied to a new set of stakeholder-designed scenarios of alternative future worlds that were developed for the FOODSECURE project and are structured around the two dimensions of inequality and sustainability. The framework is tested with two global models, MAGNET-IMAGE and GLOBIOM, and illustrated through an assessment of the possible trade-offs between food and nutrition security and sustainability in each of the worlds. Our results indicate that more equal worlds improve food security over a wider range of food security indicators and neglecting the sustainability dimension might revert food security gains over time. This paper concludes that there is a need for model-based scenario analysis to assess the complex and multi-dimensional characteristics of global food security.
Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world
Roe, Stephanie ; Streck, Charlotte ; Obersteiner, Michael ; Frank, Stefan ; Griscom, Bronson ; Drouet, Laurent ; Fricko, Oliver ; Gusti, Mykola ; Harris, Nancy ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Hausfather, Zeke ; Havlík, Petr ; House, Jo ; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan ; Popp, Alexander ; Sánchez, María José Sanz ; Sanderman, Jonathan ; Smith, Pete ; Stehfest, Elke ; Lawrence, Deborah - \ 2019
Nature Climate Change 9 (2019). - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 817 - 828.
The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here we combine a review of modelled pathways and literature on mitigation strategies, and develop a land-sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector and deploying measures in agriculture, forestry, wetlands and bioenergy could feasibly and sustainably contribute about 30%, or 15 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) per year, of the global mitigation needed in 2050 to deliver on the 1.5 °C target, but it will require substantially more effort than the 2 °C target. Risks and barriers must be addressed and incentives will be necessary to scale up mitigation while maximizing sustainable development, food security and environmental co-benefits.
Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target
Frank, Stefan ; Havlík, Petr ; Stehfest, Elke ; Meijl, Hans van; Witzke, Peter ; Pérez-Domínguez, Ignacio ; Dijk, Michiel van; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Valin, Hugo - \ 2019
Nature Climate Change 9 (2019)1. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 66 - 72.
Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10–12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 °C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 °C target and decompose the mitigation potential by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism. The results show that the livestock sector will be vital to achieve emission reductions consistent with the 1.5 °C target mainly through emission-reducing technologies or structural changes. Agriculture may contribute emission reductions of 0.8–1.4 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) yr−1 at just US$20 per tCO2e in 2050. Combined with dietary changes, emission reductions can be increased to 1.7–1.8 GtCO2e yr−1. At carbon prices compatible with the 1.5 °C target, agriculture could even provide average emission savings of 3.9 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2050, which represents around 8% of current GHG emissions.
Increasing nitrogen export to sea: A scenario analysis for the Indus River
Wang, Mengru ; Tang, Ting ; Burek, P. ; Havlík, Petr ; Krisztin, Tamás ; Kroeze, Carolien ; Leclère, D. ; Strokal, Maryna ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Wang, Yaoping ; Langan, S. - \ 2019
Science of the Total Environment 694 (2019). - ISSN 0048-9697
Indus River - Nitrogen sources - Representative concentration pathways - River export of nitrogen (N) - Shared socio-economic pathways - Sub-basins
The Indus River Basin faces severe water quality degradation because of nutrient enrichment from human activities. Excessive nutrients in tributaries are transported to the river mouth, causing coastal eutrophication. This situation may worsen in the future because of population growth, economic development, and climate change. This study aims at a better understanding of the magnitude and sources of current (2010) and future (2050) river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) by the Indus River at the sub-basin scale. To do this, we implemented the MARINA 1.0 model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs). The model inputs for human activities (e.g., agriculture, land use) were mainly from the GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Model) models. Model inputs for hydrology were from the Community WATer Model (CWATM). For 2050, three scenarios combining Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs 1, 2 and 3) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 6.0) were selected. A novelty of this study is the sub-basin analysis of future N export by the Indus River for SSPs and RCPs. Result shows that river export of TDN by the Indus River will increase by a factor of 1.6–2 between 2010 and 2050 under the three scenarios. >90% of the dissolved N exported by the Indus River is from midstream sub-basins. Human waste is expected to be the major source, and contributes by 66–70% to river export of TDN in 2050 depending on the scenarios. Another important source is agriculture, which contributes by 21–29% to dissolved inorganic N export in 2050. Thus a combined reduction in both diffuse and point sources in the midstream sub-basins can be effective to reduce coastal water pollution by nutrients at the river mouth of Indus.
The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
Fitton, N. ; Alexander, P. ; Arnell, N. ; Bajzelj, B. ; Calvin, K. ; Doelman, J. ; Gerber, J.S. ; Havlik, P. ; Hasegawa, T. ; Herrero, M. ; Krisztin, T. ; Meijl, H. van; Powell, T. ; Sands, R. ; Stehfest, E. ; West, P.C. ; Smith, P. - \ 2019
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 58 (2019). - ISSN 0959-3780
Food security - Land use - Shared socio-economic pathways - Water availability
Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.
The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050
Pastor, A.V. ; Palazzo, A. ; Havlik, P. ; Biemans, H. ; Wada, Y. ; Obersteiner, M. ; Kabat, P. ; Ludwig, F. - \ 2019
Nature Sustainability 2 (2019). - ISSN 2398-9629 - p. 499 - 507.
In the face of meeting Sustainable Development Goals for the water–food–energy–ecosystems nexus, integrated assessments are a great means to measure the impact of global change on natural resources. In this study, we evaluate the impact of climate change with the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario and the impact of socioeconomics with the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 scenario on land use, water consumption and food trade under four water regulation policy scenarios (invest, exploit, environment and environment+). We used the Global Biosphere Management Model and constrained it with water availability, environmental flow requirements, and water use from agriculture, industry and households (simulated using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land model, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model and WaterGap model). Here, we show that an increase in land use by 100 Mha would be required to double food production by 2050, to meet projected food demands. International trade would need to nearly triple to meet future crop demands, with an additional 10–20% trade flow from water-abundant regions to water-scarce regions to sustain environmental flow requirements on a global scale.
A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation
Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Krey, Volker ; Riahi, Keywan ; Bertram, Christoph ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Bosetti, Valentina ; Callen, Jessica ; Després, Jacques ; Doelman, Jonathan ; Drouet, Laurent ; Emmerling, Johannes ; Frank, Stefan ; Fricko, Oliver ; Havlik, Petr ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Meijl, Hans van; Ochi, Yuki ; Popp, Alexander ; Schmitz, Andreas ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Vuuren, Detlef van - \ 2019
Nature Sustainability 2 (2019)5. - ISSN 2398-9629 - p. 386 - 396.
Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.
Key determinants of global land-use projections
Stehfest, Elke ; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Valin, Hugo ; Havlik, Petr ; Popp, Alexander ; Kyle, Page ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Bodirsky, Benjamin L. ; Calvin, Katherine ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Meijl, Hans van; Wiebe, Keith - \ 2019
Nature Communications 10 (2019). - ISSN 2041-1723 - 10 p.
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.
A systematic analysis of social, economic and environmental sustainability metrics for the range of activities and world views encompassed in the EU food systems : Deliverable No. D6.3
Achterbosch, T.J. ; Verma, Monika ; Leip, Adrian ; Zurek, Monika ; Oudendag, D.A. ; Geleijnse, J.M. ; Latka, Catharina ; Havlík, Petr ; Kuijsten, A. ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Farell, David ; Anderson, Ross ; Ruto, Elias - \ 2019
SUSFANS - 119 p.
The strengths and limitations of the SUSFANS metrics and models for assessing sustainable food and nutrition security in Europe : Deliverable No. D9.6
Latka, Catharina ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Havlík, Petr ; Frank, Stefan ; Dijk, M. van; Veer, P. van 't; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Hsu, S.H. - \ 2019
SUSFANS - 33 p.
The SUSFANS model toolbox comprises state-of-the-art foresight and newly developed diet models for a holistic sustainability and dietary assessment. The toolbox is ready to assess the food system transitions to support healthy and sustainable diets of EU citizens. A future research agenda for the modelling of food system properties is proposed regarding modelling of food supply, consumer choices, global impacts and for assessing and communicating complex model results.
Foresight of EU sustainable food and nutrition security: the interplay between major challenges and policy responses at different spatiotemporal scales : Deliverable No. 10.4
Frank, Stefan ; Latka, Catharina ; Havlik, P. ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Dijk, M. van; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Cui, David ; Geleijnse, J.M. ; Hebinck, Aniek ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Kuijsten, A. ; Leip, Adrian ; Oudendag, D.A. ; Verma, Monika ; Witzke, Heinz-Peter ; Zurek, Monika - \ 2019
SUSFANS - 75 p.
Resumé on performance of EU food systems towards European FNS and SDGs. Deliverable 2.3 : WP 2 Mapping of trends in food systems and related R&I policy frameworks
Cui, David ; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Shutes, L.J. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Latka, Catharina ; Havlík, Petr ; Frank, Stefan ; Leip, Adrian - \ 2019
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios
Kim, Hyejin ; Rosa, Isabel M.D. ; Alkemade, Rob ; Leadley, Paul ; Hurtt, George ; Popp, Alexander ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Anthoni, Peter ; Arneth, Almut ; Baisero, Daniele ; Caton, Emma ; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca ; Chini, Louise ; Palma, Adriana De; Fulvio, Fulvio Di; Marco, Moreno Di; Espinoza, Felipe ; Ferrier, Simon ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Gonzalez, Ricardo E. ; Gueguen, Maya ; Guerra, Carlos ; Harfoot, Mike ; Harwood, Thomas D. ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Haverd, Vanessa ; Havlík, Petr ; Hellweg, Stefanie ; Hill, Samantha L.L. ; Hirata, Akiko ; Hoskins, Andrew J. ; Janse, Jan H. ; Jetz, Walter ; Johnson, Justin A. ; Krause, Andreas ; Leclère, David ; Martins, Ines S. ; Matsui, Tetsuya ; Merow, Cory ; Obersteiner, Michael ; Ohashi, Haruka ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Purvis, Andy ; Quesada, Benjamin ; Rondinini, Carlo ; Schipper, Aafke M. ; Sharp, Richard ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Thuiller, Wilfried ; Titeux, Nicolas - \ 2018
Geoscientific Model Development 11 (2018)11. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 4537 - 4562.
To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
Assessing sustainable food and nutrition security of the EU food system - An integrated approach
Zurek, Monika ; Hebinck, Aniek ; Leip, Adrian ; Vervoort, Joost ; Kuiper, Marijke ; Garrone, Maria ; Havlík, Petr ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Hornborg, Sara ; Ingram, John ; Kuijsten, Anneleen ; Shutes, Lindsay ; Geleijnse, Johanna M. ; Terluin, Ida ; Veer, Pieter van 't; Wijnands, Jo ; Zimmermann, Andrea ; Achterbosch, Thom - \ 2018
Sustainability 10 (2018)11. - ISSN 2071-1050
Food system assessment - Food systems - Interdisciplinarity - Metrics - Participatory approach - SUSFANS - Sustainable food and nutrition security
Steering the EU food system towards a sustainability transformation requires a vast and actionable knowledge base available to a range of public and private actors. Few have captured this complexity by assessing food systems from a multi-dimensional and multi-level perspective, which would include (1) nutrition and diet, environmental and economic outcomes together with social equity dimensions and (2) system interactions across country, EU and global scales. This paper addresses this gap in food systems research and science communication by providing an integrated analytical approach and new ways to communicate this complexity outside science. Based on a transdisciplinary science approach with continuous stakeholder input, the EU Horizon2020 project 'Metrics, Models and Foresight for European SUStainable Food And Nutrition Security' (SUSFANS) developed a five-step process: Creating a participatory space; designing a conceptual framework of the EU food system; developing food system performance metrics; designing a modelling toolbox and developing a visualization tool. The Sustainable Food and Nutrition-Visualizer, designed to communicate complex policy change-impacts and trade-off questions, enables an informed debate about trade-offs associated with options for change among food system actors as well as in the policy making arena. The discussion highlights points for further research related to indicator development, reach of assessment models, participatory processes and obstacles in science communication.
The potential role of producer and consumer food policies in the EU to sustainable food and nutrition security
Latka, Catharina ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Batka, Miroslav ; Boere, Esther ; Chang, Chiao-Ya ; Cui, David ; Geleijnse, Marianne ; Havlík, Petr ; Kuijsten, Anneleen ; Kuiper, Marijke ; Leip, Adrian ; ’t Veer, Pieter van; Witzke, Heinz-Peter ; Ziegler, Friederike - \ 2018
Wageningen : SUSFANS - 123
EU sustainable food and nutrition security is no sure-fire success. The future of
the agro-food system is uncertain and subject to different macro-level trends.
Previous analysis revealed the role of food system drivers creating challenges and
opportunities for dietary and environmental improvements under certain future
constellations. However, these challenges and opportunities need to be addressed by policies to allow for actual improvements in the sustainability
performance of EU food systems, for people, planet and profit. In this deliverable,
an assessment and pre-test of potential policy measures is carried out. The policy
analyses are contrasted to a ‘business-as-usual’ baseline scenario with current
trends of food system drivers. We apply the SUSFANS modelling toolbox in order
to test relevant policy measures in four distinct aqua-agro-food policy sectors.
Regarding health and nutrition of the EU population, we provide a ranking of
potential dietary policies and interventions based on their effectiveness,
implementation costs and restrictiveness for consumers and producers. Based on
this overview, options for health and nutrition policy are designed containing a
mixture of different policy instruments. These apply – in line with the allocation
of policy responsibilities in the EU - at the level of individual member states and
not at the realms of an EU policy. In the context of the Common AgriculturalPolicy (CAP), we assess the impact of a livestock density restriction on EU Agricultural areas. Results indicate a reduction of soil nutrient surpluses (-9 to -13%) and of greenhouse gas emissions (-9%) at EU average and considerably stronger in the livestock density and over-fertilization hotspots. Trade openness restricts the impact on food consumption and dietary change of EU consumers. Three Common Fisheries Policies (CFP) are tested with the newly developed fish modules of GLOBIOM and CAPRI: Directing capture in EU waters to levels that keep fish stocks at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), or at the maximum economic yield (MEY), and the implementation of national aquaculture growth plans composed by EU member states. Our results show limited policy impacts due to the rlatively small size of the EU fish producing sector with some trade but
limited consumption changes. Finally, different storage policies are tested with the new short-term volatility module of GLOBIOM. The scenarios reveal that storage availability and intervention prices reduce price volatility caused by yield shocks. The assessments illustrate that individual, yet unaligned policy measures can already contribute significantly to reaching sustainable food and nutrition
security. On the way to the final foresight assessment extensions are require regarding a) metrics quantifiability, b) the harmonization of metrics computation
approaches, and c) smaller model improvements
Quantified future challenges to sustainable food and nutrition security in the EU : Deliverable No. 10.2
Frank, S. ; Dijk, M. van; Havlik, P. ; Cui, David ; Heckelei, T. ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Latka, C. ; Witzke, H.P. ; Achterbosch, T.J. - \ 2018
SUSFANS - 44 p.