Modelling food security : Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale
Müller, Birgit ; Hoffmann, Falk ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Müller, Christoph ; Hertel, Thomas W. ; Polhill, J.G. ; Wijk, Mark van; Achterbosch, Thom ; Alexander, Peter ; Brown, Calum ; Kreuer, David ; Ewert, Frank ; Ge, Jiaqi ; Millington, James D.A. ; Seppelt, Ralf ; Verburg, Peter H. ; Webber, Heidi - \ 2020
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 63 (2020). - ISSN 0959-3780
Agent-based models - Crop models - Economic equilibrium models - Food security - Land use - Model integration - Multi-scale interactions - Social-ecological feedbacks
Achieving food and nutrition security for all in a changing and globalized world remains a critical challenge of utmost importance. The development of solutions benefits from insights derived from modelling and simulating the complex interactions of the agri-food system, which range from global to household scales and transcend disciplinary boundaries. A wide range of models based on various methodologies (from food trade equilibrium to agent-based) seek to integrate direct and indirect drivers of change in land use, environment and socio-economic conditions at different scales. However, modelling such interaction poses fundamental challenges, especially for representing non-linear dynamics and adaptive behaviours. We identify key pieces of the fragmented landscape of food security modelling, and organize achievements and gaps into different contextual domains of food security (production, trade, and consumption) at different spatial scales. Building on in-depth reflection on three core issues of food security – volatility, technology, and transformation – we identify methodological challenges and promising strategies for advancement. We emphasize particular requirements related to the multifaceted and multiscale nature of food security. They include the explicit representation of transient dynamics to allow for path dependency and irreversible consequences, and of household heterogeneity to incorporate inequality issues. To illustrate ways forward we provide good practice examples using meta-modelling techniques, non-equilibrium approaches and behavioural-based modelling endeavours. We argue that further integration of different model types is required to better account for both multi-level agency and cross-scale feedbacks within the food system.
Report on T5.4: Sustainability impacts of potential innovations in the supply chain of livestock and fish, and fruit and vegetables, and sustainable future diets : Deliverable No. D5.4
Zanten, H.H.E. van; Hal, O. van; Ziegler, F. ; Hornborg, Sara ; Latka, Catharina ; Parodi, Alejandro ; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Bianchi, Marta ; Boer, I.J.M. de; Borthwick, Louisa ; Burgstaller, Elke ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Leip, Adrian ; Valin, H. - \ 2019
SUSFANS - 84 p.
The strengths and limitations of the SUSFANS metrics and models for assessing sustainable food and nutrition security in Europe : Deliverable No. D9.6
Latka, Catharina ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Havlík, Petr ; Frank, Stefan ; Dijk, M. van; Veer, P. van 't; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Hsu, S.H. - \ 2019
SUSFANS - 33 p.
The SUSFANS model toolbox comprises state-of-the-art foresight and newly developed diet models for a holistic sustainability and dietary assessment. The toolbox is ready to assess the food system transitions to support healthy and sustainable diets of EU citizens. A future research agenda for the modelling of food system properties is proposed regarding modelling of food supply, consumer choices, global impacts and for assessing and communicating complex model results.
Foresight of EU sustainable food and nutrition security: the interplay between major challenges and policy responses at different spatiotemporal scales : Deliverable No. 10.4
Frank, Stefan ; Latka, Catharina ; Havlik, P. ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Dijk, M. van; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Cui, David ; Geleijnse, J.M. ; Hebinck, Aniek ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Kuijsten, A. ; Leip, Adrian ; Oudendag, D.A. ; Verma, Monika ; Witzke, Heinz-Peter ; Zurek, Monika - \ 2019
SUSFANS - 75 p.
Assessing sustainable food and nutrition security of the EU food system - An integrated approach
Zurek, Monika ; Hebinck, Aniek ; Leip, Adrian ; Vervoort, Joost ; Kuiper, Marijke ; Garrone, Maria ; Havlík, Petr ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Hornborg, Sara ; Ingram, John ; Kuijsten, Anneleen ; Shutes, Lindsay ; Geleijnse, Johanna M. ; Terluin, Ida ; Veer, Pieter van 't; Wijnands, Jo ; Zimmermann, Andrea ; Achterbosch, Thom - \ 2018
Sustainability 10 (2018)11. - ISSN 2071-1050
Food system assessment - Food systems - Interdisciplinarity - Metrics - Participatory approach - SUSFANS - Sustainable food and nutrition security
Steering the EU food system towards a sustainability transformation requires a vast and actionable knowledge base available to a range of public and private actors. Few have captured this complexity by assessing food systems from a multi-dimensional and multi-level perspective, which would include (1) nutrition and diet, environmental and economic outcomes together with social equity dimensions and (2) system interactions across country, EU and global scales. This paper addresses this gap in food systems research and science communication by providing an integrated analytical approach and new ways to communicate this complexity outside science. Based on a transdisciplinary science approach with continuous stakeholder input, the EU Horizon2020 project 'Metrics, Models and Foresight for European SUStainable Food And Nutrition Security' (SUSFANS) developed a five-step process: Creating a participatory space; designing a conceptual framework of the EU food system; developing food system performance metrics; designing a modelling toolbox and developing a visualization tool. The Sustainable Food and Nutrition-Visualizer, designed to communicate complex policy change-impacts and trade-off questions, enables an informed debate about trade-offs associated with options for change among food system actors as well as in the policy making arena. The discussion highlights points for further research related to indicator development, reach of assessment models, participatory processes and obstacles in science communication.
The potential role of producer and consumer food policies in the EU to sustainable food and nutrition security
Latka, Catharina ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Batka, Miroslav ; Boere, Esther ; Chang, Chiao-Ya ; Cui, David ; Geleijnse, Marianne ; Havlík, Petr ; Kuijsten, Anneleen ; Kuiper, Marijke ; Leip, Adrian ; ’t Veer, Pieter van; Witzke, Heinz-Peter ; Ziegler, Friederike - \ 2018
Wageningen : SUSFANS - 123
EU sustainable food and nutrition security is no sure-fire success. The future of
the agro-food system is uncertain and subject to different macro-level trends.
Previous analysis revealed the role of food system drivers creating challenges and
opportunities for dietary and environmental improvements under certain future
constellations. However, these challenges and opportunities need to be addressed by policies to allow for actual improvements in the sustainability
performance of EU food systems, for people, planet and profit. In this deliverable,
an assessment and pre-test of potential policy measures is carried out. The policy
analyses are contrasted to a ‘business-as-usual’ baseline scenario with current
trends of food system drivers. We apply the SUSFANS modelling toolbox in order
to test relevant policy measures in four distinct aqua-agro-food policy sectors.
Regarding health and nutrition of the EU population, we provide a ranking of
potential dietary policies and interventions based on their effectiveness,
implementation costs and restrictiveness for consumers and producers. Based on
this overview, options for health and nutrition policy are designed containing a
mixture of different policy instruments. These apply – in line with the allocation
of policy responsibilities in the EU - at the level of individual member states and
not at the realms of an EU policy. In the context of the Common AgriculturalPolicy (CAP), we assess the impact of a livestock density restriction on EU Agricultural areas. Results indicate a reduction of soil nutrient surpluses (-9 to -13%) and of greenhouse gas emissions (-9%) at EU average and considerably stronger in the livestock density and over-fertilization hotspots. Trade openness restricts the impact on food consumption and dietary change of EU consumers. Three Common Fisheries Policies (CFP) are tested with the newly developed fish modules of GLOBIOM and CAPRI: Directing capture in EU waters to levels that keep fish stocks at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), or at the maximum economic yield (MEY), and the implementation of national aquaculture growth plans composed by EU member states. Our results show limited policy impacts due to the rlatively small size of the EU fish producing sector with some trade but
limited consumption changes. Finally, different storage policies are tested with the new short-term volatility module of GLOBIOM. The scenarios reveal that storage availability and intervention prices reduce price volatility caused by yield shocks. The assessments illustrate that individual, yet unaligned policy measures can already contribute significantly to reaching sustainable food and nutrition
security. On the way to the final foresight assessment extensions are require regarding a) metrics quantifiability, b) the harmonization of metrics computation
approaches, and c) smaller model improvements
Quantified future challenges to sustainable food and nutrition security in the EU : Deliverable No. 10.2
Frank, S. ; Dijk, M. van; Havlik, P. ; Cui, David ; Heckelei, T. ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Latka, C. ; Witzke, H.P. ; Achterbosch, T.J. - \ 2018
SUSFANS - 44 p.
Deliverable 9.3: Enhanced modelling of sustainable food and nutrition security: food supply and use of scarce resources
Heckelei, T. ; Batka, M. ; Chang, C.Y. ; Havlik, M. ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Latka, C. ; Leclère, D. ; Tamás, K. - \ 2018
SUSFANS - 65 p.
Metrics, models and foresight for European sustainable food and nutrition security: the vision of the SUSFANS project
Rutten, M.M. ; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Boer, I.J.M. de; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo ; Geleijnse, J.M. ; Havlik, P. ; Heckelei, T. ; Ingram, John ; Leip, Adrian ; Marette, Stephan ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Soler, L.G. ; Swinnen, J. ; Veer, P. van 't; Vervoort, J.M. ; Zimmermann, A. ; Zimmermann, K.L. ; Zurek, M. - \ 2018
Agricultural Systems 163 (2018). - ISSN 0308-521X - p. 45 - 57.
This paper defines the research agenda of the SUSFANS project, describes its history and its potential societal impacts. It contributes to balanced and encompassing views on how to strengthen food and nutrition security outcomes in the EU and how to improve the performance of the food system in the EU from the perspective of social, environmental and economic sustainability. The research is led by the notion that improvements in the diets of the European consumer must come from, and be supportive of, sustainable food systems. Its holistic, integrative approach builds a set of metrics, models and foresight tools, useable for navigation on sustainable food and nutrition security. This results in a coherent and supported vision on sustainable food and nutrition security in the EU and globally, and underpins a perspective on how EU policies on farming, fishing, food and nutrition could contribute to that vision with greater efficacy than today.
Deliverable No. 10.1: Quantified SUSFANS scenario drivers ready to be used by the modeling toolbox
Havlik, P. ; Dijk, M. van; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Batka, M. ; Boere, E. ; Folberth, C. ; Frank, S. ; Götz, C. ; Heckelei, T. ; Valin, H. ; Ziegler, F. ; Zurek, M. - \ 2017
SUSFANS - 24 p.
Deliverable No. 1.4: A modelling strategy for quantifying the sustainability of food and nutrition security in the EU
Kuiper, M.H. ; Zurek, Monika ; Havlik, Petr ; Deppermann, Andre ; Valin, Hugo ; Kuijsten, A. ; Geleijnse, J.M. ; Veer, P. van 't; Heckelei, T. ; Götz, Christian ; Leip, Adrian ; Zimmermann, A. ; Soler, L.G. ; Irz, Xavier ; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo ; Hlouskova, Jaroslava ; Obersteiner, Michael - \ 2017
SUSFANS - 83
D9.1 Modelling Sustainability and Nutrition in Long Run Analyses of the EU Agri-Food system: Work plan for the SUSFANS Toolbox
Rutten, M.M. ; Zimmermann, A. ; Havlik, P. ; Leip, A. ; Heckelei, T. ; Achterbosch, T.J. - \ 2016
EU - 57 p.
The SUSFANS toolbox for assessing EU Sustainable food and nutrition security : Deliverable No. 9.5
Kuiper, M.H. ; Kalter, Joeri ; Mertens, E. ; Latka, C. ; Heckelei, T. ; Leip, A. ; Kanellopoulos, A. ; Achterbosch, T.J. - \ 2015
SUSFANS - 38 p.
Index funds' financial speculation with agricultural commodities: Functioning. Effects.
Glauben, T. ; Prehn, S. ; Pies, I. ; Will, M.G. ; Loy, J.P. ; Balmann, A. ; Brümmer, B. ; Heckelei, T. ; Hockmann, H. ; Kirschke, D. ; Koester, U. ; Langhammer, R. ; Salhofer, K. ; Schmitz, P.M. ; Tangermann, S. ; Witzke, H. von; Wesseler, J.H.H. - \ 2014
Halle (Saale) : IAMO
For quite some time long-only index funds have been suspected of being responsible for price increases in agricultural futures markets. This suspicion has prompted demands to drastically limit long-only index funds' scope of activity. Such demands and their underlying diagnoses, however, contradict the current state of scientific knowledge. To date, the empirically oriented literature has not provided conclusive evidence that long-only index funds with their futures transactions significantly have increased the level or volatility of agricultural commodity prices. Indeed, recent theoretical works suggest that long-only index funds, pursuant to their investment strategy, rather stabilize agricultural commodity prices and fulfill an important collateralization and competition function in agricultural futures markets. The commitment to these funds reduces risk premiums and thus enables food producers to hedge against price fluctuations at lower costs. Mitigated risk premiums motivate farmers to put larger parts of their harvests into storage, which counteracts seasonal price fluctuations. To safeguard sustainable global food supply, long-only index funds should not be subjected to stricter market entry regulations.
Agrarspekulation mit Indexfonds: Wie sie funktioniert. Was sie bewirkt.
Glauben, T. ; Prehm, Sören ; Pies, I. ; Will, M.G. ; Loy, J.P. ; Balmann, A. ; Brümmer, B. ; Heckelei, T. ; Hockmann, H. ; Kirschke, D. ; Köster, Ulrich ; Langhammer, R. ; Salhofer, K. ; Schmitz, Peter Michael ; Tangermann, S. ; Witzke, H. von; Wesseler, J.H.H. - \ 2013
Halle : Leibniz-Insitut fuer Agrarentwicklung in Mitten- und Osteuropa (IAMO) (IAMO Policy Brief 12)
The policy-relevancy of impact assessment tools: Evaluating nine years of European research funding
Podhora, A. ; Helming, K. ; Adenauer, L. ; Heckelei, T. ; Kautto, P. ; Reidsma, P. ; Rennings, K. ; Turnpenny, J. ; Jansen, J.M.L. - \ 2013
Environmental Science & Policy 31 (2013). - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 85 - 95.
affecting land-use - of-the-art - integrated assessment - sustainable development - agricultural systems - analytical framework - union - part
Since 2002, the European Commission has employed the instrument of ex-ante impact assessments (IA) to help focus its policy-making process on implementing sustainable development. Scientific tools should play an essential role of providing the evidence base to assess the impacts of alternative policy options. To identify the contribution of research funding for IA tool development, this paper analysed the variety of IA tools designed in projects funded by European Framework Programmes (FPs) 6 and 7. The paper is based on project information available on the European Cordis website, individual project websites and a verification of the results by the project coordinators. We analysed the projects from the interests of IA practitioners as tool users (European policy and impact areas addressed by the tools, jurisdictional application levels and tool categories). Out of the 7.781 projects funded in FP6 and FP7, 203 could be identified that designed tools for the IA process. Nearly half of them applied to environmental, agricultural and transport policy areas. Within these areas, the tools primarily addressed environmental impact areas, less economic and least social impact areas. The IA tools focused on European policies. Models represented the largest tool category, whereas approximately half of the tools could not be clearly categorized. Concerning our analysis criteria, the tool descriptions available on the internet were often unclear and thus may limit the application potential of the tools because of a mismatch of technical terms and categorisation criteria between tool providers and tool users. Future IA tools require a joint political and scientific typology and a narrowing of the gaps, e.g., with view to multi-jurisdictional application and a clear reference to the steps of the IA process.
|Tools assessing trade impacts - a state of the art in European research for impact assessment
Podhora, A. ; Helming, K. ; Heckelei, T. ; Kautto, P. ; Reidsma, P. ; Rennings, K. ; Turnpenny, J. ; Jansen, J. ; Adenauer, L. - \ 2012
Tools for Integrated Assessment in Agriculture. State of the Art and Challenges
Britz, W. ; Ittersum, M.K. van; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. ; Heckelei, T. - \ 2012
Bio-based and Applied Economics 1 (2012)2. - ISSN 2280-6180 - p. 125 - 150.
The increased interest in Integrated Assessment (IA) of agricultural systems reflects the growing complexity of policy objectives and corresponding impacts related to this sector. The paper contemplates on the status of quantitative tools for IA in agriculture, drawing on recent European experiences from the development and application of large-scale integrated modelling systems which are both multi-dimensional/disciplinary and covering multiple spatial scales. Specific challenges arise from the numerous roles of agriculture with societal relevance, the heterogeneity of farms and farming systems across a geographical region and the multitude of environmental impacts of interest associated with agricultural production. Conceptual differences between typical bio-physical and economic models as well as deficiencies regarding validation and uncertainty analysis require continued efforts to improve the tools.
Assessing the adaptive capacity of agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios (AgriAdapt project).
Wolf, J. ; Reidsma, P. ; Schaap, B.F. ; Mandryk, M. ; Kanellopoulos, A. ; Ewert, F. ; Oort, P.A.J. van; Angulo, C. ; Rumbaur, C. ; Lock, R. ; Enders, A. ; Adenauer, M. ; Heckelei, T. ; Rötter, R.P. ; Fronzek, S. ; Carter, T.R. ; Verhagen, A. ; Ittersum, M.K. van - \ 2012
Wageningen : Climate changes Spatial Planning (KvR 059/12 ) - ISBN 9789088150517 - 73
klimaatverandering - klimaatadaptatie - akkerbouw - bedrijfssystemen - marktanalyse - structurele verandering - gewasproductie - modelleren - landbouwbeleid - nederland - flevoland - europese unie - climatic change - climate adaptation - arable farming - farming systems - market analysis - structural change - crop production - modeling - agricultural policy - netherlands - flevoland - european union
The AgriAdapt project has developed methodologies that enable (a) the assessment of impacts, risks and resiliencies for agriculture under changes in climatic conditions but also under changes of other drivers (market, technology, policy, etc.) and (b) the evaluation of adaptation strategies at farm type and regional scale. The methodologies are applied to arable farming over Europe and in a more integrated way, to that in Flevoland, the Netherlands as the key case. The methodologies at European level include (a) Crop modelling and (b) Market modelling. The methodologies at regional level cover the following main areas: (a) Integrated sustainability assessment, (b) Development of scenarios of farm structural change towards 2050, (c) Calculation of crop yields for different scenarios in 2050 inclusive agro-climate calendars, and (d) Partial and fully integrated analysis of farming systems in 2050, inclusive the aggregation to the regional level. Results from the application of the different methodologies are presented here. For example, exploring future farming systems shows that the most important driving factors towards 2050 within the A1-W scenario with a globalized economy, are (a) the yield increase due to climate change, (b) the expected product price change and (c) the degree of innovation in crop productivity. The effects of climate change are projected to have a positive economic effect on arable farming.
Scenario development and assessment of the potential impacts of climate and market changes on crops in Europe : Assessing the adaptive capacity of agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios (AgriAdapt project)
Ewert, F. ; Angulo, C. ; Rumbaur, C. ; Lock, R. ; Enders, A. ; Adenauer, M. ; Heckelei, T. ; Ittersum, M.K. van; Wolf, J. ; Rötter, R. - \ 2011
Climate changes Spatial Planning - 49
klimaatverandering - gewasproductie - gewasgroeimodellen - west-europa - climatic change - crop production - crop growth models - western europe
The Netherlands are an important producer and exporter of agricultural products. Changes in climate, markets and policies may have a large impact on the agricultural sector and farmers will need to adapt to these changes. Sector and policy documents have, so far, insufficiently considered the impacts of climate change and increased climate variability on the sector.