|Scenarios thinking for the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Region
Lovecraft, A.L. ; Preston, B.L. ; Absar, S.M. ; Blair, Berill ; Cost, D. ; Ernst, K.M. ; Fresco, N. ; Hillmer-Pegram, K. ; Hum, R. ; Lee, O. ; Machavariani, G. ; Wesche, S. - \ 2017
In: Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic Oslo : - ISBN 9788279711032 - p. 217 - 238.
A number of biophysical and socio-economic drivers will have a significant influence on future vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation planning in the Bering-Chuckchi-Beaufort (BCB) region ( Chapters 4-7). The trajectories of some of those drivers are amenable to modeling, forecasting, or projection. However, the future is inherently uncertain, particularly over long time horizons. Scenarios have been used for over 50 years as a tool for exploring such uncertainty in order to identify key driving forces and critical unknowns, as well as to generate shared understanding among stakeholders regarding the potential for, and implications of, alternative futures (van Notten et al., 2003; Bishop et al., 2007; Avango et al., 2013). This chapter provides a general overview of scenarios and their value for understanding the implications of a changing climate within the broader context of global change. The chapter includes a review of how scenarios have been used previously to understand climate change vulnerability, risk, and resilience, with a particular emphasis on the Arctic. It also introduces a new series of qualitative regional and subregional socioeconomic scenarios for the BCB region, peering into the future to 2050, and discusses their implications for climate change impacts as well as adaptation planning and implementation.
Tourism and Arctic Observation Systems: exploring the relationships
Barre, Suzanne de la; Maher, Patrick ; Dawson, Jackie ; Hillmer-Pegram, Kevin ; Huijbens, Edward ; Lamers, M.A.J. ; Liggett, D. ; Müller, D. ; Pashkevich, A. ; Stewart, Emma - \ 2016
Polar Research 35 (2016). - ISSN 0800-0395 - 13 p.
The Arctic is affected by global environmental change and also by diverse interests from many economic sectors and industries. Over the last decade, various actors have attempted to explore the options for setting up integrated and comprehensive trans-boundary systems for monitoring and observing these impacts. These Arctic Observation Systems (AOS) contribute to the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of environmental change and responsible social and economic development in the Arctic. The aim of this article is to identify the two-way relationship between AOS and tourism. On the one hand, tourism activities account for diverse changes across a broad spectrum of impact fields. On the other hand, due to its multiple and diverse agents and far-reaching activities, tourism is also well-positioned to collect observational data and participate as an actor in monitoring activities. To accomplish our goals, we provide an inventory of tourism-embedded issues and concerns of interest to AOS from a range of destinations in the circumpolar Arctic region, including Alaska, Arctic Canada, Iceland, Svalbard, the mainland European Arctic and Russia. The article also draws comparisons with the situation in Antarctica. On the basis of a collective analysis provided by members of the International Polar Tourism Research Network from across the polar regions, we conclude that the potential role for tourism in the development and implementation of AOS is significant and has been overlooked.