- Philippe A. Ker Rault (1)
- Vicenc Acuna (1)
- Ebun Akinsete (1)
- Jochen Froebrick (1)
- Verena Huber García (1)
- Verena Huber-Garcia (1)
- Eleni Kalogianni (1)
- Kasper Kok (2)
- Phoebe Koundouri (1)
- Ralf Ludwig (2)
- Joke Luttik (1)
- Swen Meyer (1)
- Nikolaos Skoulikidis (1)
- Stella Tsani (1)
- Peter Verweij (1)
Down scaling of climate change scenarii to river basin level : A transdisciplinary methodology applied to Evrotas river basin, Greece
Ker Rault, Philippe A. ; Koundouri, Phoebe ; Akinsete, Ebun ; Ludwig, Ralf ; Huber-Garcia, Verena ; Tsani, Stella ; Acuna, Vicenc ; Kalogianni, Eleni ; Luttik, Joke ; Kok, Kasper ; Skoulikidis, Nikolaos ; Froebrick, Jochen - \ 2019
Science of the Total Environment 660 (2019). - ISSN 0048-9697 - p. 1623 - 1632.
Climate-change - Ecosystem-services - Land-use - Transdisciplinary - Water management
The Mediterranean region is anticipated to be (or, already is) one of the hot spots for climate change, where freshwater ecosystems are under threat from the effects of multiple stressors. Climate change is impacting natural resources and on the functioning of Ecosystem Services. The challenges about modelling climate change impact on water cycle in general and specifically on socio-economic dynamics of the society leads to an exponential amount of results that restrain interpretation and added value of forecasting at local level. One of the main challenges when dealing with climate change projections is the quantification of uncertainties. Modellers might have limited information or understanding from local river catchment management practices and from other disciplines with relevant insights on socio-economic and environmental complex relationship between biosphere and human based activities. Current General Circulation Models cannot fulfil the requirements of high spatial detail required for water management policy. This article reports an innovative transdisciplinary methodology to down scale Climate Change scenarii to river basin level with a special focus on the development of climate change narrative under SSP5-RCP8.5 combination called Myopic scenario and SSP1-RCP4.5 combination called Sustainable scenario. Local Stakeholder participative workshop in the Evrotas river basin provide perception of expected changes on water demand under to two developed scenario narratives.
Deriving spatially explicit water uses from land use change modelling results in four river basins across Europe
Huber García, Verena ; Meyer, Swen ; Kok, Kasper ; Verweij, Peter ; Ludwig, Ralf - \ 2018
Science of the Total Environment 628-629 (2018). - ISSN 0048-9697 - p. 1079 - 1097.
change detection - iCLUE model - irrigation - land use model - River Basin Management Plan - water scarcity
The objective of this study is to provide spatially distributed water use maps at a high spatial and thematic resolution as detailed input data for further modelling purposes. The maps were derived on the basis of official water statistics and land use maps to represent the current conditions in four European river basins affected by water scarcity (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava) and allow setting up reference scenarios. The present land use distribution was modelled based on CORINE data with the land use change model iCLUE. Modelling the land use allows to create dynamic land and water use maps adapted to the needs of eventual scenario analyses compared to using only observed land use maps. The availability of several CORINE datasets allowed calibrating and validating the results of the iCLUE model carrying out a three map comparison. Sectoral water uses were attributed to different land use classes and by this means located in space. Both the location and the magnitude of urban and agricultural water uses can be derived from the final maps. The created maps together with the corresponding land use data provide a coherent set of information crucial to most environmental modelling activities and often missing at this spatial and thematic resolution. This work also aims at visualizing and validating the water use statistics provided by official institutions such as the River Basin Management Plans. The results show that in some cases they are not consistent and underline the importance of harmonised data collection regarding water statistics, as otherwise comparisons within one study area and with others are hampered. This study is embedded in the EU-FP7 GLOBAQUA project which analyses the effects of stressors, such as changes of land and water use, on aquatic ecosystems in areas suffering water scarcity.