Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: Experience across IPBES assessments
Sitas, Nadia ; Harmáčková, Zuzana V. ; Anticamara, Jonathan A. ; Arneth, Almut ; Badola, Ruchi ; Biggs, Reinette ; Blanchard, Ryan ; Brotons, Lluis ; Cantele, Matthew ; Coetzer, Kaera ; Dasgupta, Rajarshi ; Belder, Eefje Den; Ghosh, Sonali ; Guisan, Antoine ; Gundimeda, Haripriya ; Hamann, Maike ; Harrison, Paula A. ; Hashimoto, Shizuka ; Hauck, Jennifer ; Klatt, Brian J. ; Kok, Kasper ; Krug, Rainer M. ; Niamir, Aidin ; O'farrell, Patrick J. ; Okayasu, Sana ; Palomo, Ignacio ; Pereira, Laura M. ; Riordan, Philip ; Santos-Martín, Fernando ; Selomane, Odirilwe ; Shin, Yunne Jai ; Valle, Mireia - \ 2019
Ecology and Society 24 (2019)3. - ISSN 1708-3087
Assessment - Biodiversity - Decision making - Ecosystem services - Futures - Nature - Regional - Scenarios

Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.

Maakt GWAS zijn belofte waar?
Eeuwijk, F.A. van - \ 2019
A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture
Mitter, Hermine ; Techen, Anja K. ; Sinabell, Franz ; Helming, Katharina ; Kok, Kasper ; Priess, Jörg A. ; Schmid, Erwin ; Bodirsky, Benjamin L. ; Holman, Ian ; Lehtonen, Heikki ; Leip, Adrian ; Mouël, Chantal Le; Mathijs, Erik ; Mehdi, Bano ; Michetti, Melania ; Mittenzwei, Klaus ; Mora, Olivier ; Øygarden, Lillian ; Reidsma, Pytrik ; Schaldach, Rüdiger ; Schönhart, Martin - \ 2019
Journal of Environmental Management 252 (2019). - ISSN 0301-4797
Climate change - Consistent storylines - Eur-Agri-SSP - Integrated assessment - Narrative - Social environmental system

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS.

Nature conservation in the Netherlands
Kok, A. ; Muscat, A. ; Olde, E.M. de; Ripoll Bosch, R. - \ 2019
Wageningen University & Research
Report on Narratives behind Directives Protecting the Environment
Olde, E.M. de; Kok, A. ; Ripoll Bosch, R. ; Boer, I.J.M. de; Giampietro, M. ; Pereira, A. - \ 2019
- 45 p.
This deliverable presents a social metabolism analysis and quality check of a narrative related to the policy domain of environmental protection. More specifically, the deliverable applies and reflects on the use of Quantitative Story Telling as an innovative approach to explore the feasibility, viability and desirability of a narrative. In this deliverable we analysed options for internalization of agricultural production and its impact on biodiversity. Four case studies (the Netherlands, France, Spain and the EU28) were used to reflect differences between countries and overall import characteristics, land use and livestock production. The FAOSTAT database of production and trade in livestock and crop products was used to identify and quantify the main import and export crop and livestock products in the four case studies. This gives an impression of the magnitude of the trade, its associated land use, the role of livestock production, the (im)possibilities of internalizing these imports, and the impact internalization could have on biodiversity. Although the four case studies are explorative, they show that the current import of crop products requires a substantial amount of land in other parts of the world and illustrate the complexity involved in internalization. Based on the results, we conclude that internalization of agricultural production based on current levels of import and export, would jeopardize commitments made to reduce biodiversity loss.
Balancing food production and biodiversity conservation
Kok, A. ; Muscat, A. - \ 2019
Modelling the consequences of an extended lactation on GHG emissions and economics in dairy cows
Kok, A. - \ 2019
Assessing biodiversity responses to changes in climate and land use
Nuñez Ramos, Sarahi - \ 2019
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): R. Leemans; R. Alkemade, co-promotor(en): K. Kok. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463950428 - 143
Archetype analysis in sustainability research: meanings, motivations, and evidence-based policy making
Oberlack, Christoph ; Sietz, Diana ; Bonanomi, Elisabeth Bürgi ; Bremond, Ariane de; Dell' Angelo, Jampel ; Eisenack, Klaus ; Ellis, Erle C. ; David, M. ; Giger, Markus ; Heinimann, Andreas ; Kimmich, Christian ; Kok, Marcel T.J. ; Navarrete, David Manuel ; Messerli, Peter ; Meyfroidt, Patrick ; Václavík, Tomás ; Villamayor-Tomas, Sergio - \ 2019
Ecology and Society 24 (2019)2. - ISSN 1708-3087
Archetype - Land systems - Social-ecological system - Sustainability - Vulnerability

Archetypes are increasingly used as a methodological approach to understand recurrent patterns in variables and processes that shape the sustainability of social-ecological systems. The rapid growth and diversification of archetype analyses has generated variations, inconsistencies, and confusion about the meanings, potential, and limitations of archetypes. Based on a systematic review, a survey, and a workshop series, we provide a consolidated perspective on the core features and diverse meanings of archetype analysis in sustainability research, the motivations behind it, and its policy relevance. We identify three core features of archetype analysis: Recurrent patterns, multiple models, and intermediate abstraction. Two gradients help to apprehend the variety of meanings of archetype analysis that sustainability researchers have developed: (1) understanding archetypes as building blocks or as case typologies and (2) using archetypes for pattern recognition, diagnosis, or scenario development. We demonstrate how archetype analysis has been used to synthesize results from case studies, bridge the gap between global narratives and local realities, foster methodological interplay, and transfer knowledge about sustainability strategies across cases. We also critically examine the potential and limitations of archetype analysis in supporting evidence-based policy making through context-sensitive generalizations with case-level empirical validity. Finally, we identify future priorities, with a view to leveraging the full potential of archetype analysis for supporting sustainable development.

Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in europe and central asia using scenario archetypes
Harrison, Paula A. ; Harmáčková, Zuzana V. ; Karabulut, Armağan Aloe ; Brotons, Lluis ; Cantele, Matthew ; Claudet, Joachim ; Dunford, Robert W. ; Guisan, Antoine ; Holman, Ian P. ; Jacobs, Sander ; Kok, Kasper ; Lobanova, Anastasia ; Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra ; Pedde, Simona ; Rixen, Christian ; Santos-Martín, Fernando ; Schlaepfer, Martin A. ; Solidoro, Cosimo ; Sonrel, Anthony ; Hauck, Jennifer - \ 2019
Ecology and Society 24 (2019)2. - ISSN 1708-3087
Biodiversity - Drivers - Ecosystem services - Exploratory scenarios - Impacts - IPBES - Models - Nature - Nature’s contributions to people (NCP)

Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): Business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature’s contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating tradeoffs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature’s contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development.

Evaluation of customized dry period management in dairy cows
Kok, A. ; Hoeij, R.J. van; Kemp, B. ; Knegsel, A.T.M. van - \ 2019
In: Book of Abstracts of the 70th Annual Meeting of the European Federation of Animal Science. - Wageningen Academic Publishers (EAAP books of abstracts ) - ISBN 9789086863396 - p. 536 - 536.
Food and biodiversity impacts of conservation scenarios on Dutch agricultural land
Oostvogels, V.J. ; Kok, A. ; Olde, E.M. de; Ripoll Bosch, R. - \ 2019
In: Book of Abstracts of the 70th Annual Meeting of the European Federation of Animal Science. - Wageningen Academic Publishers (EAAP books of abstracts ) - ISBN 9789086863396 - p. 349 - 349.
Nudging physical activity in offices
Meiden, Iris van der; Kok, Herman ; Velde, Gerben van der - \ 2019
Journal of Facilities Management (2019). - ISSN 1472-5967
Experiment - Health benefits - Nudging - Observations - Office environment - Stair use

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate whether and why nudging interventions in an office environment are effective to stimulate stair use of employees. Design/methodology/approach: This paper is based on a pre-test/post-test case study design at the headquarters of a Dutch online retailer. Observations were conducted to test the impact of two nudge interventions, being footprints and posters, on employees’ stair use in two consecutive pre-test/post-test weeks. An online survey questionnaire was used to assess employees’ overall experience with the nudging interventions after the fifth and again neutral week. Findings: A total of 14,357 observations were recorded during five weeks. This research shows that footprints as nudging intervention significantly increase stair use of employees, and after removal, significantly decrease stair use again. Moreover, footprints were more effective than posters, of which the latter did not impact stair use significantly. Results from the survey questionnaire, completed by 46.2 per cent of the employees, showed that, in terms of degree of perception, footprints (91.4 per cent) were more noticeable than posters (46.3 per cent). Originality/value: This paper contributes to the non-conclusive research regarding the effectiveness of nudging interventions on stair use in office environments. It clearly shows that perceptibility in combination with a positive attitude towards the nudge leads to a higher degree of initial behavioural change, yet not to a change of mind.

Changes in body composition during and after adjuvant or neo-adjuvant chemotherapy in women with breast cancer stage I–IIIB compared with changes over a similar timeframe in women without cancer
Berg, M.M.G.A. van den; Kok, D.E. ; Visser, M. ; Vries, J.H.M. de; Kruif, J.T.C.M. de; Vries, Y. de; Posthuma, L. ; Sommeijer, D.W. ; Timmer-Bonte, A. ; Los, M. ; Laarhoven, H.W.M. van; Kampman, E. ; Winkels, Renate M. - \ 2019
Supportive Care in Cancer (2019). - ISSN 0941-4355
Body composition - Body weight - Breast cancer - Chemotherapy

Purpose: Body weight and body composition may change during and after adjuvant or neo-adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. However, most studies did not include a comparison group of women without cancer, thus could not assess whether observed changes differed from age-related fluctuations in body weight and body composition over time. We assessed changes in body composition during and after chemotherapy in breast cancer patients compared with age-matched women not diagnosed with cancer. Methods: We recruited 181 patients with stage I–IIIb breast cancer and 180 women without cancer. In patients, we assessed body composition using a dual-energy X-ray scan before start of chemotherapy (T1), shortly after chemotherapy (T2), and 6 months after chemotherapy (T3); for the comparison group, the corresponding time points were recruitment (T1) and 6 (T2) and 12 (T3) months. Results: Fifteen percent of patients and 8% of the comparison group gained at least 5% in body weight between T1 and T3. Among the comparison group, no statistically significant changes in body weight, or body composition were observed over time. Body weight of patients significantly increased from baseline (72.1 kg ± 0.4 kg) to T2 (73.3 kg ± 0.4 kg), but decreased to 73.0 kg ± 0.4 kg after chemotherapy (T3). Lean mass of patients significantly increased from 43.1 kg ± 0.5 kg at baseline to 44.0 kg ± 0.5 kg at T2, but returned to 43.1 kg ± 0.5 kg at T3. There were no differential changes in fat mass over time between patients and the comparison group. Conclusions: Changes in body weight and body composition during and after chemotherapy for early stage breast cancer were modest, and did not differ substantially from changes in body weight and body composition among women without cancer.

WHO draft guidelines on dietary saturated and trans fatty acids: Time for a new approach?
Astrup, Arne ; Bertram, Hanne C.S. ; Bonjour, Jean Philippe ; Groot, Lisette C.P. De; Oliveira Otto, Marcia C. De; Feeney, Emma L. ; Garg, Manohar L. ; Givens, Ian ; Kok, Frans J. ; Krauss, Ronald M. ; Lamarche, Benoît ; Lecerf, Jean Michel ; Legrand, Philippe ; McKinley, Michelle ; Micha, Renata ; Michalski, Marie Caroline ; Mozaffarian, Dariush ; Soedamah-Muthu, Sabita S. - \ 2019
BMJ: British Medical Journal 366 (2019). - ISSN 0959-8146
The 2018 WHO draft guidelines on dietary saturated fatty acids and trans fatty acids recommend reducing total intake of saturated fat and replacing it with polyunsaturated and monounsaturated fatty acids. The recommendations fail to take into account considerable evidence that the health effects of saturated fat varies depending on the specific fatty acid and on the specific food source. Maintaining general advice to reduce total saturated fatty acids will work against the intentions of the guidelines and weaken their effect on chronic disease incidence and mortality. A food based translation of the recommendations for saturated fat intake would avoid unnecessary reduction or exclusion of foods that are key sources of important nutrients.
Are Ergothioneine Levels in Blood Associated with Chronic Peripheral Neuropathy in Colorectal Cancer Patients Who Underwent Chemotherapy?
Winkels, Renate M. ; Brakel, Lieve Van; Baar, Harm Van; Beelman, Robert B. ; Duijnhoven, Fränzel J.B. Van; Geijsen, Anne ; Halteren, Henk K. Van; Hansson, Bibi M.E. ; Richie, John P. ; Sun, Dongxiao ; Wesselink, Evertine ; Zutphen, Moniek Van; Kampman, Ellen ; Kok, Dieuwertje E. - \ 2019
Nutrition and Cancer (2019). - ISSN 0163-5581

Objective: Chronic Chemotherapy-Induced Peripheral Neuropathy (CIPN) is highly prevalent among colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Ergothioneine (ET)–a dietary antioxidant -protected against CIPN in experimental models, but human studies are lacking. We explored whether whole blood ET levels were associated with chronic peripheral neuropathy among CRC patients who had completed chemotherapy. Methods: At diagnosis, median ET-concentration in whole blood of 159 CRC patients was 10.2 μg/ml (7.2–15.8). Patients completed questionnaires on peripheral neuropathy 6 months after completion of chemotherapy. We calculated prevalence ratios (PR) to assess associations of ET-concentrations and prevalence of peripheral neuropathy and used linear regression to assess associations with severity of peripheral neuropathy. Results: Prevalence of total and sensory peripheral neuropathy were both 81%. Higher ET-concentrations tended to be associated with lower prevalence of total and sensory peripheral neuropathy, but not statistically significant (highest versus lowest tertile of ET: PR = 0.93(0.78, 1.11) for total neuropathy, and PR = 0.84(0.70, 1.02) for sensory neuropathy). ET-concentrations were not associated with severity of neuropathy. Conclusion: Statistically significant associations were not observed, possibly because of limited sample size. Although data may putatively suggest higher levels of ET to be associated with a lower prevalence of neuropathy, analyses should be repeated in larger populations with larger variability in ET-concentrations.

Customising dry period management: consequences for milk yield, body condition and disease incidence
Knegsel, A.T.M. van; Hoeij, R.J. van; Kemp, B. ; Kok, A. - \ 2019
In: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Production Diseases in Farm Animals. - Bern, Switserland : University of Bern - ISBN 9783906813936 - p. 147 - 147.
Advantages of shortening and omitting of the dry period are an improved energy balance and metabolic status in early lactation and potentially also an improved fertility (Van Knegsel et al., 2013). Disadvantages, however, are a reduction in milk yield in the subsequent lactation, loss of opportunity for selective dry cow therapy (DCT) and, in case of omitting of the dry period, reduction in concentration of antibodies in colostrum. Moreover, response of dairy cows to different dry period lengths was related to individual cow characteristics, like parity (Annen et al., 2004), milk yield level or SCC level (Van Hoeij et al., 2016). Therefore, it can be hypothesized that customising dry period management for individual cows could mitigate negative impacts of shortening and omitting the dry period on milk production and udder health, and at the same time retain benefits from both a dry period as well as benefits from a short or no dry period. In this study, we aimed to evaluate two decision trees to customize dry period length and selective DCT based on parity, milk production and SCC in late lactation.
Customising lactation length: impact of calving interval, parity, and lactation persistency on milk production of dairy cows
Burgers, Eline ; Kok, A. ; Goselink, R.M.A. ; Knegsel, A.T.M. van - \ 2019
In: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Production Diseases in Farm Animals. - Bern, Switserland : University of Bern - ISBN 9783906813936 - p. 148 - 148.
The transition period around calving is a critical phase for a dairy cow. Large changes in both physiology and management increase the risk for disease. In most modern dairy systems a cow faces this transition period every year, as a one-year calving interval (CI) is usually aimed for. Increasing CI reduces the relative amount of transition periods for a cow, thereby potentially reducing the risk for disease and improving fertility. Drawback of an increased CI is a possible reduction in milk yield although estimated effects of an increased CI on milk yield differ among studies. Some farmers in the Netherlands deliberately increase CI by increasing the voluntary waiting period for insemination (VWP), using various strategies to select cows that may benefit from an increased CI. This study aims to gain insight in cow characteristics that can be used to optimize CI for individual cows by assessing how CI, parity, and persistency impact milk production.
Review: Dry period length in dairy cows and consequences for metabolism and welfare and customised management strategies
Kok, A. ; Chen, Juncai ; Kemp, B. ; Knegsel, A.T.M. van - \ 2019
Animal 13 (2019)S1. - ISSN 1751-7311 - p. S42 - S51.
Shortening or omitting the dry period improves the energy balance and metabolic status of dairy cows in early lactation. Metabolic, behaviour and welfare effects throughout lactation, however, are unclear. The current paper reviews long-term metabolic and welfare consequences of short and no dry period, as well as feeding strategies and individual cow characteristics that could support in optimising management of cows with a short or no dry period. The paper will conclude with impacts of short and no dry periods at herd level and in practice. Energy balance after no or a short dry period is more positive during the complete subsequent lactation. After the initial improvement in early lactation, cows after no dry period tend to fatten and may have a too low lactation persistency to be continuously milked until the onset of the subsequent lactation. Reducing dietary energy level for cows with no dry period reduced fattening during the complete lactation but did not improve lactation persistency. Feeding a more lipogenic diet for cows with a short or no dry period did not affect the energy balance or lactation persistency during the complete lactation, although a lipogenic diet resulted in lower plasma insulin and IGF-1 concentration and greater plasma growth hormone concentration, compared with a glucogenic diet. Effects of dry period length on udder health are ambiguous, whereas short and no dry periods improved fertility in most studies. Omission of the dry period changed behaviour of cows both before and after calving, with a longer lying time and greater feed intake after calving, suggesting a better adaptation to a new lactation. Individual cow characteristics like parity, genotype, prepartum body condition score, and milk yield level determined the metabolic response of cows to a short or no dry period. In conclusion, short or no dry periods increase the energy balance in the complete lactation. Feeding strategies can be used to limit fattening of cows with no or short dry period, but the studied feeding strategies did not increase lactation persistency. Improved fertility and behavioural changes around calving suggest a better adaptation to a new lactation in case of no dry period. Customised dry period lengths for individual cows could improve metabolic status of cows at risk of a severe negative energy balance while minimising milk losses.
Regulation and safety considerations of somatic cell nuclear transfer-cloned farm animals and their offspring used for food production
Berg, Jan Pieter van der; Kleter, Gijs A. ; Kok, Esther J. - \ 2019
Theriogenology 135 (2019). - ISSN 0093-691X - p. 85 - 93.
Animal cloning - Animal husbandry - Food safety - Regulation - Risk assessment - Somatic cell nuclear transfer - Traceability

This document discusses recent developments in cloning of husbandry animals through somatic cell nuclear transfer, particularly with a view on improvements in their efficacy. Commercial developments in North and South America, Australia-New Zealand, and China are noted. The regulations and safety aspects surrounding the use of clones and their offspring for the purpose of food production are discussed. It is generally considered that foods from offspring of clones are no different than similar foods from conventional animals, yet besides safety, also ethical and animal welfare considerations come into play at the policy level. The related topic of detection and traceability of clones is discussed, which covers both molecular and documentary methods.

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