Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework
    Pereira, Laura M. ; Davies, Kathryn K. ; Belder, Eefje ; Ferrier, Simon ; Karlsson‐vinkhuyzen, Sylvia ; Kim, Hyejin ; Kuiper, Jan J. ; Okayasu, Sana ; Palomo, Maria G. ; Pereira, Henrique M. ; Peterson, Garry ; Sathyapalan, Jyothis ; Schoolenberg, Machteld ; Alkemade, Rob ; Carvalho Ribeiro, Sonja ; Greenaway, Alison ; Hauck, Jennifer ; King, Nicholas ; Lazarova, Tanya ; Ravera, Federica ; Chettri, Nakul ; Cheung, W.W.L. ; Hendriks, Rob J.J. ; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O. ; Leadley, Paul ; Metzger, Jean Paul ; Ninan, Karachepone N. ; Pichs, Ramon ; Popp, Alexander ; Rondinini, Carlo ; Isabel, Rosa ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Lundquist, Carolyn J. - \ 2020
    People and Nature (2020). - ISSN 2575-8314 - 24 p.
    Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals.
    As a first step towards achieving this, the researchers who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) entered into an iterative, participatory process that led to the development of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF).
    The NFF is a heuristic tool that captures diverse, positive relationships of humans with nature in the form of a triangle. It can be used both as a boundary object for continuously opening up more plural perspectives in the creation of desirable nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature scenarios across multiple scales.
    Here we describe the methods employed to develop the NFF and how it fits into a longer term process to create transformative, multiscale scenarios for nature. We argue that the contribution of the NFF is twofold: (a) its ability to hold a plurality of perspectives on what is desirable, which enables the development of joint goals and visions and recognizes the possible convergence and synergies of measures to achieve these visions and (b), its multiscale functionality for elaborating scenarios and models that can inform decision‐making at relevant levels, making it applicable across specific places and perspectives on nature.
    If humanity is to achieve its goal of a more sustainable and prosperous future rooted in a flourishing nature, it is critical to open up a space for more plural perspectives of human–nature relationships. As the global community sets out to develop new goals for biodiversity, the NFF can be used as a navigation tool helping to make diverse, desirable futures possible
    The distribution of food security impacts of biofuels, a Ghana case study
    Brinkman, Marnix ; Levin-Koopman, Jason ; Wicke, Birka ; Shutes, Lindsay ; Kuiper, Marijke ; Faaij, André ; Hilst, Floor van der - \ 2020
    Biomass and Bioenergy 141 (2020). - ISSN 0961-9534
    Biofuel mandate - CGEmodel - Developing country - Food security - Household - Nutrition

    The demand for biofuels is expected to increase significantly in the coming years. However, there are major concerns on the impact of increased biofuel production on food security. As biofuel affects food security in various ways, it is important to assess the impacts on the four pillars of food security, availability, access, utilisation and stability. The objective of this study is to ex-ante quantify impacts of biofuel production on the four pillars of food security for urban and rural households in a developing country. We illustrate this for Ghana, which proposed a 10% biodiesel and 15% ethanol mandate for 2030 and which faces food security issues. We used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model MAGNET in combination with a household and a nutrition module to quantify 13 food security indicators. The results show that the largest food security effects of the biofuel mandate are negative impacts on food prices and import dependency. However, the projected food security impacts of the biofuel mandate in 2030 are relatively small compared to the projected food security effects of economic development in Ghana towards 2030. Our approach enables ex-ante quantification of the effects of biofuel on the four pillars of food security and the differentiation of the effects between urban and rural households. Although improvements can be made, the approach means a big step forward compared to the state-of-the-art knowledge on food security impacts of biofuel production and it could contribute to identify options to minimise negative and optimise positive food security effects.

    Learning from generations of sustainability concepts
    Downing, Andrea S. ; Chang, Manqi ; Kuiper, Jan J. ; Campenni, Marco ; Haÿhä, Tiina ; Cornell, Sarah E. ; Svedin, Uno ; Mooij, Wolf M. - \ 2020
    Environmental Research Letters 15 (2020)8. - ISSN 1748-9318

    Background: For decades, scientists have attempted to provide a sustainable development framework that integrates goals of environmental protection and human development. The Planetary Boundaries concept (PBc)- A framework to guide sustainable development-juxtaposes a 'safe operating space for humanity' and 'planetary boundaries', to achieve a goal that decades of research have yet to meet. We here investigate if PBc is sufficiently different to previous sustainability concepts to have the intended impact, and map how future sustainability concept developments might make a difference. Design: We build a genealogy of the research that is cited in and informs PBc. We analyze this genealogy with the support of two seminal and a new consumer-resource models, that provide simple and analytically tractable analogies to human-environment relationships. These models bring together environmental limits, minimum requirements for populations and relationships between resource-limited and waste-limited environments. Results: PBc is based on coherent knowledge about sustainability that has been in place in scientific and policy contexts since the 1980s. PBc represents the ultimate framing of limits to the use of the environment, as limits not to single resources, but to Holocene-like Earth system dynamics. Though seldom emphasized, the crux of the limits to sustainable environmental dynamics lies in waste (mis-)management, which sets where boundary values might be. Minimum requirements for populations are under-defined: It is the distribution of resources, opportunities and waste that shape what is a safe space and for whom. Discussion: We suggest that PBc is not different or innovative enough to break 'Cassandra's dilemma' and ensure scientific research effectively guides humanity towards sustainable development. For this, key issues of equality must be addressed, un-sustainability must be framed as a problem of today, rather than projected into the future, and scientific foundations of frameworks such as PBc must be broadened and diversified.

    Using food loss reduction to reach food security and environmental objectives – A search for promising leverage points
    Kuiper, Marijke ; Cui, Hao David - \ 2020
    Food Policy (2020). - ISSN 0306-9192
    Computable General Equilibrium - Environment - Food Loss and Waste - Food Security - Nutrition

    We identify promising leverage points for food loss reductions from a food system perspective with a global economy-wide model capturing price and income feedbacks of changes at different points in the supply chain. Using new FAO food loss estimates we model loss reduction as a zero-cost productivity increase at primary and processing stages, simultaneously deriving the response of food security (national availability, accessibility and utilisation of food) and sustainability indicators (GHG emissions, agricultural land use) at global and regional levels. To help focus data collection and intervention efforts we identify interventions by region, supply chain stage and sector contributing most to improving nutrition and sustainability. While the loss rates show no clear relation to regional income, strongest impacts on food security and environment are in low income regions. Decomposing indicator responses to the exogenous loss reduction shocks we find a focus on domestic primary stages achieving strong and unambiguous positive impacts on both food security and environment. Since foreign loss reductions may harm food insecure agricultural households through import substitution, the most food insecure countries should be part of any global loss reduction efforts. Fruit and vegetables and animal products are found to have the strongest impact on both food security and environment. A marginal impact on GHG emissions remains once non-agricultural expansion following the productivity increase is accounted for, showing the importance of an economy-wide perspective.

    The 'Water, food, energy and ecosystem Nexus’ and Migration : An explorative study of key drivers of migration flows and their impacts
    Rooij, Bertram de; Tabeau, Ewa ; Agricola, Herman ; Soma, Katrine ; Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Catharien ; Kuiper, Marijke ; Verma, Monika ; Stuiver, Marian - \ 2020
    Wageningen : Wageningen Environmental Research (Wageningen Environmental Research report 2981) - ISBN 9789463952293 - 53
    Zoektocht naar alternatieven voor soja als vervanger van dierlijk eiwit
    Nieuwland, Maaike ; Klaassen, Niels ; Kuiper, Nadine ; Thijssens, Miel ; Wouters, Aaron ; Schaeffer, Jeroen - \ 2020
    Zoektocht naar vervangers dierlijk eiwit : Alternatieven voor soja
    Nieuwland, M. ; Klaassen, Niels ; Kuiper, Nadine ; Thijssens, Miel ; Wouters, Aaron ; Schaeffer, Jeroen - \ 2020
    Voedingsindustrie : vakblad 27 (2020)3. - ISSN 2213-5758 - p. 40 - 43.
    Steeds meer consumenten stappen, mede uit duurzaamheidsoverwegingen, over naar een dieet met minder vlees. De markt voor vleesvervangers groeit in volume, kwaliteit en variatie. Het overgrote deel van deze vleesalternatieven bestaat uit soja, vaak in combinatie met gluten. Maar soja als vleesvervanger is niet zaligmakend. Wat zijn goede alternatieven?
    Modelling alternative futures of global food security: Insights from FOODSECURE
    Meijl, Hans van; Shutes, Lindsay ; Valin, Hugo ; Stehfest, Elke ; Dijk, Michiel van; Kuiper, Marijke ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Havlik, Petr - \ 2020
    Global Food Security 25 (2020). - ISSN 2211-9124
    Environment - Food security - Integrated assessment - Long run - Scenario analysis

    Global economic models have been increasingly used to project food and agricultural developments for long term-time horizons, but food security aspects have often been limited to food availability projections. In this paper, we propose a broader framework to explore the future of food and nutrition security with a focus on food availability, food access, and a reasonable proxy for food utilisation. This framework is applied to a new set of stakeholder-designed scenarios of alternative future worlds that were developed for the FOODSECURE project and are structured around the two dimensions of inequality and sustainability. The framework is tested with two global models, MAGNET-IMAGE and GLOBIOM, and illustrated through an assessment of the possible trade-offs between food and nutrition security and sustainability in each of the worlds. Our results indicate that more equal worlds improve food security over a wider range of food security indicators and neglecting the sustainability dimension might revert food security gains over time. This paper concludes that there is a need for model-based scenario analysis to assess the complex and multi-dimensional characteristics of global food security.

    The role of fisheries and aquaculture in a circular food system
    Hal, O. van; Boer, I.J.M. de; Ziegler, Friederike ; Schrama, J.W. ; Kuiper, Kiki ; Zanten, H.H.E. van - \ 2020
    In: WIAS Annual Conference 2020. - WIAS - p. 46 - 46.
    Recent studies show that animals fed solely with low-opportunity-cost feeds (LCF), products currently considered unsuitable or undesired for human consumption, can contribute significantly to human nutrient supply. So far, studies on the role of animals in such a circular food system focussed on livestock, while fish can make a valuable contribution through their supply of animal-source food (ASF) rich in essential ω-3 fatty acids (ω-3EFA). Here we assessed the potential contribution of capture fisheries and aquaculture (i.e. farmed salmon and tilapia) to a circular food system, using the EU-28 as a case study. The contribution of fisheries was assessed through multiple sustainable fisheries scenarios. The contribution of aquaculture was determined by the availability of LCF and their competitive advantage in upcycling them compared to livestock. Such advantages are the supply of ω-3EFA in fish,a high feed efficiency and legality to feed processed animal proteins banned as livestock feed. Aquaculture’s contribution was assessed with an optimisation model that allocates LCF available in the EU to that combination of animals that maximises human digestible protein (HDP) supply, given that human population requirements regarding vitamin B12and ω-3EFA are met. Results show that in the proposed circular food system, fish consumption(20 g/cap/d), aquaculture production (2.8 million tonne fish meat) and food supply from EU fisheries (4.5 g/cap/d) are higher than currently in the EU. Fish provided all ω-3EFA,of which 55% through farmed salmon, which depended on fisheries for ω-3EFA containing feed. Overcoming this dependency on fisheries for ω-3EFA is essential for nutrition security.While aquaculture is essential to ω-3EFA supply and able to upcycle animal based LCF,livestock, especially dairy cattle, is more efficient at protein provision. Under the abundant protein supply in the EU, however, the ability to supply essential nutrients that can only be derived from ASF (e.g. ω-3EFA) is more valuable and should be prioritised. Fish, therefore,belongs to balanced diets with respect for our planet, which requires a combination of livestock and fish production systems, that use available LCF efficiently.
    MagnetGrid : Model description and user guide
    Diogo, Vasco ; Hennen, Wil ; Verma, Monika ; Oudendag, Diti ; Kuiper, Marijke - \ 2020
    Wageningen : Wageningen Economic Research (Wageningen Economic Research report 2020-004) - 65
    MagnetGrid is een modulair economisch landgebruiksmodel dat ruimtelijk expliciete biofysische informatie combineert met macro-economische projecties. MagnetGrid visualiseert toekomstige agrarisch landgebruikspatronen gedreven door een combinatie van klimatologische en socioeconomische ontwikkelingen. Het model kwantificeert de impact van deze trends en de mogelijke uitruil tussen verschillende doelstellingen. De ruimtelijk expliciete analyses van MagnetGrid kunnen voor een breed publiek toegankelijk gemaakt worden door kaarten die veranderingen in landgebruik laten zien op wereld-, regio-, land- en lokaal niveau.
    Putting people on the map – identifying the socio-economic contribution to spatially explicit food system assessments
    Kuiper, M.H. ; Verma, Monika - \ 2020
    Wageningen Economic Research (KB Working Paper )
    Herkennen habitatkwaliteit graslanden o.b.v. NDVI
    Visser, Tim ; Kuiper, Mark ; Melman, Dick ; Meijninger, W.M.L. ; Goedhart, P.W. - \ 2019
    Wageningen : Wageningen Environmental Research (Wageningen Environmental Research rapport 2977) - 29
    De kern van weidevogelbeheer betreft in Nederland het op orde krijgen van de habitatkwaliteit in de graslanden. Eerdere ervaringen laten zien dat NDVI-satellietbeelden een belangrijke rol kunnen spelen om hier gebiedsdekkend inzicht in te krijgen. In dit onderzoek is op een aantal onderdelen getoetst in hoeverre deze beelden inzicht geven in de feitelijke situatie en in hoeverre ze een betrouwbaar hulpmiddel kunnen zijn bij het plannen en evalueren van weidevogelbeheer. In een eerste analyse is vastgesteld in hoeverre NDVI specifiek is voor het type grasland. Daarnaast is onderzocht in hoeverre NDVI indicerend is voor zwaarte (biomassa) en structuur van de vegetatie, de kruidenrijkdom en de doorwaadbaarheid van de vegetatie (als maat voor verplaatsingsweerstand voor kuikens). Ten slotte is in beeld gebracht hoe de verspreiding van weidevogels gedurende het broed- en opgroeiseizoen samenhangt met de NDVI-waarden. Voor alle aspecten is een (vrij) sterke, vaak significante samenhang gevonden. Daarmee lijken NDVI-beelden bruikbaar om een gebiedsdekkend, realistisch beeld van de feitelijke situatie te geven.
    Food system challenges for Ethiopia
    Conijn, J.G. ; Hermelink, Marleen ; Deolu-Ajayi, Ayodeji ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Rossi Cervi, Walter - \ 2019
    Wageningen : Wageningen Research - 53 p.
    MAGNET - a team-based modular CGE approach for coherent cross-cutting policy assessments
    Kuiper, M.H. ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Tabeau, A.A. - \ 2019
    In: EU Conference on modelling for policy support In: EU Conference on modelling for policy support. - EU Science Hub - p. 103 - 105.
    Transition support system approach for urban food security in the future : The case of Ghana
    Dijkshoorn-Dekker, Marijke ; Linderhof, Vincent ; Pinto, Vasco ; Hennen, Wil ; Oudendag, Diti ; Kuiper, Marijke ; Shutes, Lindsay - \ 2019
    Wageningen : Wageningen Economic Research (Report / Wageningen Economic Research 2019-057a) - ISBN 9789463439602 - 43
    The population of the world is becoming increasingly urbanised due to a combination of natural population growth and rural–urban migration. This will pose major challenges to feed the future population and meet the Sustainable Development Goals. Meeting these complex challenges requires an integrated approach. The transition support system (TSS) approach integrates decision support tools and stakeholder analyses for these complex issues. This study has focused attention on the application of decision support tools of the TSS approach that visualises the urgency of future food security as a proof of concept. To this end, the future food security of the city of Accra, the capital of Ghana, has been taken as a case study. The use of Global-Detector and its maps illustrated a quick way to downscale data and projections from MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) and perform spatial analyses without the burden of acquiring additional data. Downscaling of macroeconomic results of future projections provides insights into future urban food security. Giventhese insights, stakeholders might urge policy or interventions. The results of the exercise are largely determined by the availability of data and maps; in particular, the more detailed information is available, the more accurate the results of our exercise will be.
    A perspective on water quality in connected systems: modelling feedback between upstream and downstream transport and local ecological processes
    Teurlincx, Sven ; Wijk, Dianneke van; Mooij, Wolf M. ; Kuiper, Jan J. ; Huttunen, Inese ; Brederveld, Robert J. ; Chang, Manqi ; Janse, Jan H. ; Woodward, Ben ; Hu, Fenjuan ; Janssen, Annette B.G. - \ 2019
    Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 40 (2019). - ISSN 1877-3435 - p. 21 - 29.

    Food production for a growing world population relies on application of fertilisers and pesticides on agricultural lands. However, these substances threaten surface water quality and thereby endanger valued ecosystem services such as drinking water supply, food production and recreational water use. Such deleterious effects do not merely arise on the local scale, but also on the regional scale through transport of substances as well as energy and biota across the catchment. Here we argue that aquatic ecosystem models can provide a process-based understanding of how these transports by water and organisms as vectors affect – and are affected by – ecosystem state and functioning in networks of connected lakes. Such a catchment scale approach is key to setting critical limits for the release of substances by agricultural practices and other human pressures on aquatic ecosystems. Thereby, water and food production and the trade-offs between them may be managed more sustainably.

    Bedreigingen en kansen van vrijkomende agrarische bebouwing
    Kuiper, Paul Peter ; Both, M. ; Gies, T.J.A. - \ 2019
    De Landeigenaar 65 (2019)2. - ISSN 0166-5839 - p. 10 - 11.
    Tot 2030 zal naar verwachting circa 40 miljoen vierkante meter gebouwen
    op agrarische erven hun functie verliezen in verband met bedrijfsbeëindiging.
    Dat brengt bedreigingen met zich mee, maar ook kansen.
    A systematic analysis of social, economic and environmental sustainability metrics for the range of activities and world views encompassed in the EU food systems : Deliverable No. D6.3
    Achterbosch, T.J. ; Verma, Monika ; Leip, Adrian ; Zurek, Monika ; Oudendag, D.A. ; Geleijnse, J.M. ; Latka, Catharina ; Havlík, Petr ; Kuijsten, A. ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Farell, David ; Anderson, Ross ; Ruto, Elias - \ 2019
    SUSFANS - 119 p.
    The strengths and limitations of the SUSFANS metrics and models for assessing sustainable food and nutrition security in Europe : Deliverable No. D9.6
    Latka, Catharina ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Havlík, Petr ; Frank, Stefan ; Dijk, M. van; Veer, P. van 't; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Hsu, S.H. - \ 2019
    SUSFANS - 33 p.
    The SUSFANS model toolbox comprises state-of-the-art foresight and newly developed diet models for a holistic sustainability and dietary assessment. The toolbox is ready to assess the food system transitions to support healthy and sustainable diets of EU citizens. A future research agenda for the modelling of food system properties is proposed regarding modelling of food supply, consumer choices, global impacts and for assessing and communicating complex model results.
    Foresight of EU sustainable food and nutrition security: the interplay between major challenges and policy responses at different spatiotemporal scales : Deliverable No. 10.4
    Frank, Stefan ; Latka, Catharina ; Havlik, P. ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Dijk, M. van; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Cui, David ; Geleijnse, J.M. ; Hebinck, Aniek ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Kuijsten, A. ; Leip, Adrian ; Oudendag, D.A. ; Verma, Monika ; Witzke, Heinz-Peter ; Zurek, Monika - \ 2019
    SUSFANS - 75 p.
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