Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Key determinants of global land-use projections
Stehfest, Elke ; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Valin, Hugo ; Havlik, Petr ; Popp, Alexander ; Kyle, Page ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Bodirsky, Benjamin L. ; Calvin, Katherine ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Meijl, Hans van; Wiebe, Keith - \ 2019
Nature Communications 10 (2019). - ISSN 2041-1723 - 10 p.

Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
Schewe, Jacob ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Reyer, Christopher ; Zhao, Fang ; Ciais, Philippe ; Elliott, Joshua ; Francois, Louis ; Huber, Veronika ; Lotze, Heike K. ; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ; Vliet, Michelle T.H. Van; Vautard, Robert ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Breuer, Lutz ; Büchner, Matthias ; Carozza, David A. ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Coll, Marta ; Deryng, Delphine ; Wit, Allard De; Eddy, Tyler D. ; Folberth, Christian ; Frieler, Katja ; Friend, Andrew D. ; Gerten, Dieter ; Gudmundsson, Lukas ; Hanasaki, Naota ; Ito, Akihiko ; Khabarov, Nikolay ; Kim, Hyungjun ; Lawrence, Peter ; Morfopoulos, Catherine ; Müller, Christoph ; Müller Schmied, Hannes ; Orth, René ; Ostberg, Sebastian ; Pokhrel, Yadu ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. ; Sakurai, Gen ; Satoh, Yusuke ; Schmid, Erwin ; Stacke, Tobias ; Steenbeek, Jeroen ; Steinkamp, Jörg ; Tang, Qiuhong ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tittensor, Derek P. ; Volkholz, Jan ; Wang, Xuhui ; Warszawski, Lila - \ 2019
Nature Communications 10 (2019). - ISSN 2041-1723
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
Protocol-based storylines for integrated assessments of future European agriculture
Mitter, H. ; Schönhart, M. ; Sinabell, Franz ; Techen, A.K. ; Helming, K. ; Bodirsky, B. ; Holman, I. ; Kok, K. ; Lehtonen, H. ; Leip, A. ; Lotze-Campen, H. ; Mathijs, E. ; Mehdi, B. ; Michetti, M. ; Mittenzwei, K. ; Oygarden, Lilian ; Priess, J. ; Reidsma, P. ; Schaldach, R. ; Schmid, E. ; Webber, H. - \ 2018
In: Methoden für eine evidenzbasierte Agrarpolitik - Erfahrungen, Bedarf und Entwicklungen Methods for an evidence-based agricultural policy - Experiences, demand and new developments. - ÖGA - p. 121 - 122.
Integrated assessments in agriculture often necessitate storylines to define socio-economic framework assumptions. They are available at global to continental scales but their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for sectoral studies in agriculture at national to regional scales. We therefore aim at developing protocol-based storylines for European agriculture by extending and enriching global storylines. Consistency across spatial scales and sectors related to agriculture are maintained by following a nested approach. Stakeholders contribute to the research process in order to ensure usefulness and usability of the results. We present the innovative research design to generate storylines for European agriculture and give examples of storyline elements. The shared protocol increases transparency of how storyline elements are identified, prioritized and combined, improving comparability and consistency of integrated assessments within and across scales.
Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy
Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Havlík, Petr ; Valin, Hugo ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Kyle, Page ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Ochi, Yuki ; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio ; Stehfest, Elke ; Sulser, Timothy B. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Takakura, J. ; Meijl, Hans van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Wiebe, Keith ; Witzke, Peter - \ 2018
Nature Climate Change 8 (2018)8. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 699 - 703.

Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop-production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions1–3. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities4–6. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and the population at risk of hunger. A robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change. The negative impacts would be most prevalent in vulnerable, low-income regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where food security problems are already acute.

Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
Meijl, Hans van; Havlik, Petr ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Stehfest, Elke ; Witzke, Peter ; Domínguez, Ignacio P. ; Bodirsky, Benjamin L. ; Dijk, Michiel van; Doelman, Jonathan ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Müller, Christoph ; Popp, Alexander ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Valin, Hugo ; Zeist, Willem J. van - \ 2018
Environmental Research Letters 13 (2018)6. - ISSN 1748-9318
adaptation - agriculture - climate change - economic models - mitigation - shared socioeconomic pathways

Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways
Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Verburg, Peter H. ; Popp, Alexander ; Lindner, Marcus ; Verkerk, Pieter J. ; Moiseyev, Alexander ; Schrammeijer, Elizabeth ; Helming, John ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Schulp, Catharina J.E. ; Zanden, Emma H. van der; Lavalle, Carlo ; E Silva, Filipe Batista ; Walz, Ariane ; Bodirsky, Benjamin - \ 2018
Regional Environmental Change 18 (2018)3. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 751 - 762.
Cross-scale interaction - Impact assessment - Integrated modelling - Land use change - Nature protection
Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales.
Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe
Verkerk, Pieter J. ; Lindner, Marcus ; Pérez-Soba, Marta ; Paterson, James S. ; Helming, John ; Verburg, Peter H. ; Kuemmerle, Tobias ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Moiseyev, Alexander ; Müller, Daniel ; Popp, Alexander ; Schulp, Catharina J.E. ; Stürck, Julia ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Wolfslehner, Bernhard ; Zanden, Emma H. van der - \ 2018
Regional Environmental Change 18 (2018)3. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 817 - 830.
Explorative scenarios - Land use - Normative visions - Pathways

Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such mismatches is important for identifying policies to resolve them. This paper presents an approach to link explorative projections of future land use for the European Union to normative visions of desired land-use futures. We used the results of 24 scenario projections obtained from seven linked simulation models to explore uncertainty in future land-use developments. Land-use projections were linked to statements made by stakeholders for three normative visions of desired, future land use. The visions differed in the scale of multifunctionality of land use: at European (Best Land in Europe), regional (Regional Connected) or local (Local Multifunctional) level. To identify pathways to these visions, we analysed in which cases projected land-use changes matched with the land-use changes desired in the visions. We identified five pathways to the vision Regional Connected, two pathways to the vision Best Land in Europe, but no pathway to the vision Local Multifunctional. Our results suggest that policies have the ability to change the development of land use such that it is more in line with land-use futures desired by society. We believe our approach represents an interesting avenue for foresight studies on land use, as it combines the credibility from explorative scenarios with legitimacy and saliency of normative visions.

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe
Stürck, Julia ; Levers, Christian ; Zanden, Emma Henriëtta van der; Schulp, Catharina Johanna Elizabeth ; Verkerk, Pieter Johannes ; Kuemmerle, Tobias ; Helming, John ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Popp, Alexander ; Schrammeijer, Elizabeth ; Verburg, Peter - \ 2018
Regional Environmental Change 18 (2018)3. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 733 - 749.
Ecosystem service - Europe - Land system - Land use change - Modeling - Scenario

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 : AgCLIM50
Meijl, J.C.M. van; Havlík, Petr ; Lotze-Campen, H. ; Stehfest, E. ; Witzke, P. ; Pérez Domínguez, I. ; Bodirsky, B. ; Dijk, M. van; Doelman, J.C. ; Fellmann, T. ; Humpenoeder, F. ; Levin-Koopman, Jason ; Mueller, C. ; Popp, A. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Valin, Hugo - \ 2017
JRC (JRC science for policy report ) - 70 p.
Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
Frieler, Katja ; Lange, Stefan ; Piontek, Franziska ; Reyer, Christopher P.O. ; Schewe, Jacob ; Warszawski, Lila ; Zhao, Fang ; Chini, Louise ; Denvil, Sebastien ; Emanuel, Kerry ; Geiger, Tobias ; Halladay, Kate ; Hurtt, George ; Mengel, Matthias ; Murakami, Daisgbre ; Ostberg, Sebastian ; Popp, Alexander ; Riva, Riccardo ; Stevanovic, Miodrag ; SuzGBRi, Tatsuo ; Volkholz, Jan ; Burke, Eleanor ; Ciais, Philippe ; Ebi, Kristie ; Eddy, Tyler D. ; Elliott, Joshua ; Galbraith, Eric ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Hattermann, Fred ; Hickler, Thomas ; Hinkel, Jochen ; Hof, Christian ; Huber, Veronika ; Jägermeyr, Jonas ; Krysanova, Valentina ; Marcé, Rafael ; Müller Schmied, Hannes ; Mouratiadou, Ioanna ; Pierson, Don ; Tittensor, Derek P. ; Vautard, Robert ; Vliet, Michelle Van; Biber, Matthias F. ; Betts, Richard A. ; Leon Bodirsky, Benjamin ; Deryng, Delphine ; Frolking, Steve ; Jones, Chris D. ; Lotze, Heike K. ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Sahajpal, Ritvik ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Tian, Hanqin ; Yamagata, Yoshiki - \ 2017
Geoscientific Model Development 10 (2017)12. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 4321 - 4345.
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5ĝ€°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5ĝ€°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
Riahi, Keywan ; Vuuren, Detlef P. Van; Kriegler, Elmar ; Edmonds, Jae ; O’neill, Brian C. ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Bauer, Nico ; Calvin, Katherine ; Dellink, Rob ; Fricko, Oliver ; Lutz, Wolfgang ; Popp, Alexander ; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo ; KC, Samir ; Leimbach, Marian ; Jiang, Leiwen ; Kram, Tom ; Rao, Shilpa ; Emmerling, Johannes ; Ebi, Kristie ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Havlik, Petr ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Silva, Lara Aleluia Da; Smith, Steve ; Stehfest, Elke ; Bosetti, Valentina ; Eom, Jiyong ; Gernaat, David ; Masui, Toshihiko ; Rogelj, Joeri ; Strefler, Jessica ; Drouet, Laurent ; Krey, Volker ; Luderer, Gunnar ; Harmsen, Mathijs ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Baumstark, Lavinia ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Kainuma, Mikiko ; Klimont, Zbigniew ; Marangoni, Giacomo ; Lotze-campen, Hermann ; Obersteiner, Michael ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Tavoni, Massimo - \ 2016
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 42 (2016). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 153 - 168.
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).
The role of international trade under a changing climate : insights from global economic modelling
Ahammad, H. ; Heyhoe, E. ; Nelson, G. ; Sands, R. ; Fujimori, S. ; Hasegawa, T. ; Mensbrugghe, D. van der; Blanc, E. ; Havlik, P. ; Valin, H. ; Kyle, P. ; Mason-D’Croz, D. ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Schmitz, C. ; Lotze-Campen, H. ; Lampe, M. von; Tabeau, A.A. - \ 2015
In: Climate change and food systems / Elbehri, Aziz, FAO - ISBN 9789251086995 - p. 293 - 312.
Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios
Wiebe, Keith ; Lotze-Campen, H. ; Sands, R. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Meijl, J.C.M. van - \ 2015
Environmental Research Letters 10 (2015). - ISSN 1748-9326
Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.
Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
Nelson, G.C. ; Valin, H. ; Sands, R.D. ; Havlik, P. ; Ahammad, H. ; Deryng, D. ; Elliott, J. ; Fujimori, S. ; Hasegawa, T. ; Heyhoe, E. ; Kyle, P. ; Lampe, M. von; Lotze-Campen, H. ; Croz, D.M. d'; Meijl, H. van; Mensbrugghe, D. van der; Muller, C. ; Popp, A. ; Robertson, R. ; Robinson, S. ; Schmid, E. ; Schmitz, C. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Willenbockel, D. - \ 2014
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111 (2014)9. - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. 3274 - 3279.
international-trade - land-use - impact - cmip5
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, crop-land area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.
Identification of pathways to consolidated visions of future land use in Europe
Verkerk, H. ; Lindner, M. ; Helming, J.F.M. ; Kuemmerle, T. ; Lotze-Campen, H. ; Müller, D. ; Paterson, J. ; Perez-Soba, M. ; Verburg, P. ; Wolfslehner, B. ; Erb, K. ; Levers, C. ; Moiseyev, A. ; Stürck, Julia ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Varis, S. ; Zudin, S. ; Zudina, E. - \ 2014
Brussel : European Commission / VOLANTE (Deliverable 11.3)
A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies
Lotze-Campen, H. ; Verburg, P. ; Popp, A. ; Lindner, M. ; Verkerk, H. ; Moiseyev, A. ; Schrammeijer, E. ; Helming, J.F.M. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Schulp, N. ; Zanden, E. van der; Lavelle, C. ; Batista e Silva, F. ; Eitelberg, D. ; Walz, A. - \ 2014
Brussel : European Commission (Deliverable 7.4)
Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison
Lotze-Campen, H. ; Lampe, M. von; Kyle, P. ; Fujimori, S. ; Havlik, P. ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Hasegawa, T. ; Popp, A. ; Schmitz, C. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Valin, H. ; Willenbockel, D. ; Wise, M. - \ 2014
Agricultural Economics 45 (2014)1. - ISSN 0169-5150 - p. 103 - 116.
greenhouse-gas emissions - land-use - energy - productivity - scenarios - policies - capture - storage - system
Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.
Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree
Nelson, G.C. ; Mensbrugghe, D. van der; Ahammad, H. ; Blanc, E. ; Calvin, K. ; Hasegawa, T. ; Havlik, P. ; Heyhoe, E. ; Kyle, P. ; Lotze-Campen, H. ; Lampe, M. von; Mason d'Croz, D. ; Meijl, H. van; Müller, C. ; Reilly, J. ; Robertson, R. ; Sands, R.D. ; Schmitz, C. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Takahashi, K. ; Valin, H. ; Willenbockel, D. - \ 2014
Agricultural Economics 45 (2014)1. - ISSN 0169-5150 - p. 85 - 101.
system model - demand - cmip5
Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.
Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison
Lampe, M. von; Willenbockel, D. ; Ahammad, H. ; Blanc, E. ; Cai, Y. ; Calvin, K. ; Fujimori, S. ; Hasegawa, T. ; Havlik, P. ; Heyhoe, E. ; Kyle, P. ; Lotze-Campen, H. ; Mason d'Croz, D. ; Nelson, G. ; Sands, R.D. ; Schmitz, C. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Valin, H. ; Mensbrugghe, D. van der; Meijl, J.C.M. van - \ 2014
Agricultural Economics 45 (2014)1. - ISSN 0169-5150 - p. 3 - 20.
food demand - productivity - land
Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of “real world commodity prices” differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between -0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.
Report documenting the assessment results for the scenarios stored in the database
Verburg, Peter ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Popp, Alexander ; Lindner, Marcus ; Verkerk, Hans ; Kakkonen, Emmi ; Schrammeijer, Elizabeth ; Helming, J.F.M. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Schulp, Nynke ; Zanden, Emma van der; Lavalle, Carlo ; Batista e Silva, Filipe ; Eitelberg, David - \ 2013
VOLANTE - 124 p.
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