Risks without borders : A cultural consensus model of risks to sustainability in rapidly changing social-ecological systems
Blair, Berill ; Lovecraft, Amy L. - \ 2020
Sustainability 12 (2020)6. - ISSN 2071-1050
Arctic - Cultural consensus - Risks - Social-ecological system - Sustainability
Global sustainability goals cannot realistically be achieved without strategies that build on multiscale definitions of risks to wellbeing. Particularly in geographic contexts experiencing rapid and complex social and environmental changes, there is a growing need to empower communities to realize self-identified adaptation goals that address self-identified risks. Meeting this demand requires tools that can help assess shared understandings about the needs for, and barriers to, positive change. This study explores consensus about risks and uncertainties in adjacent boroughs grappling with rapid social-ecological transformations in northern Alaska. The Northwest Arctic and North Slope boroughs, like the rest of the Arctic, are coping with a climate that is warming twice as fast as in other regions. The boroughs are predominantly inhabited by Iñupiat people, for whom the region is ancestral grounds, whose livelihoods are still supported by subsistence activities, and whose traditional tribal governance has been weakened through multiple levels of governing bodies and institutions. Drawing on extensive workshop discussions and survey experiments conducted with residents of the two boroughs, we developed a model of the northern Alaska region's social-ecological system and its drivers of change. Using cultural consensus analysis, we gauged the extent of consensus across the boroughs about what key risks threaten the sustainability of their communities. Though both boroughs occupy vast swaths of land, each with their own resource, leadership, and management challenges, we found strong consensus around how risks that impact the sustainability of communities are evaluated and prioritized. Our results further confirmed that rapid and complex changes are creating high levels of uncertainties for community planners in both boroughs. We discuss the mobilizing potential of risk consensus toward collective adaptation action in the civic process of policy making. We note the contribution of cultural consensus analysis as a tool for cross-scale learning in areas coping with rapid environmental changes and complex social challenges.
The disaster chronotope : Spatial and temporal learning in governance of extreme events
Blair, Berill ; Lovecraft, A.L. ; Hum, R. - \ 2018
In: Governance of Risk, Hazards and Disasters / Fiorino, Giuseppe, Bonati, Sara, Calandra, Lina Maria, London : Routledge (Routledge Studies in Hazards, Disaster Risk and Climate Change ) - ISBN 9781138206823 - p. 43 - 64.
How does the type of disaster affect the learning among key stakeholder groups? This chapter provides a framework of disaster governance through examination of local and global response strategies based on the spatial and temporal attributes (or chronotope) of disaster events and related discourse. A series of case studies builds on the concept of “panarchy” in resilience and adaptation sciences to reveal the interaction between disasters and the capacity of various stakeholder groups to adjust the rules and assumptions that underlie disaster governance. With particular focus on patterns of learning, we map our findings in a matrix to reveal disasters as complex social-ecological processes at three levels: (1) the small fast-moving local system, (2) the nation-state as the intermediate level in speed and size, and (3) the global community of nation-states as the largest, slowest moving social system.
Arctic transitions and sustainability : Modeling risks and resilience across scales of governance
Blair, Berill ; Lovecraft, Amy ; Kofinas, Gary - \ 2017
- 1 p.
|Scenarios thinking for the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Region
Lovecraft, A.L. ; Preston, B.L. ; Absar, S.M. ; Blair, Berill ; Cost, D. ; Ernst, K.M. ; Fresco, N. ; Hillmer-Pegram, K. ; Hum, R. ; Lee, O. ; Machavariani, G. ; Wesche, S. - \ 2017
In: Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic Oslo : - ISBN 9788279711032 - p. 217 - 238.
A number of biophysical and socio-economic drivers will have a significant influence on future vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation planning in the Bering-Chuckchi-Beaufort (BCB) region ( Chapters 4-7). The trajectories of some of those drivers are amenable to modeling, forecasting, or projection. However, the future is inherently uncertain, particularly over long time horizons. Scenarios have been used for over 50 years as a tool for exploring such uncertainty in order to identify key driving forces and critical unknowns, as well as to generate shared understanding among stakeholders regarding the potential for, and implications of, alternative futures (van Notten et al., 2003; Bishop et al., 2007; Avango et al., 2013). This chapter provides a general overview of scenarios and their value for understanding the implications of a changing climate within the broader context of global change. The chapter includes a review of how scenarios have been used previously to understand climate change vulnerability, risk, and resilience, with a particular emphasis on the Arctic. It also introduces a new series of qualitative regional and subregional socioeconomic scenarios for the BCB region, peering into the future to 2050, and discusses their implications for climate change impacts as well as adaptation planning and implementation.