Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO2 Exchange Estimates
    Bastos, A. ; O'Sullivan, M. ; Ciais, P. ; Makowski, D. ; Sitch, S. ; Friedlingstein, P. ; Chevallier, F. ; Rödenbeck, C. ; Pongratz, J. ; Luijkx, I.T. ; Patra, P.K. ; Peylin, P. ; Canadell, J.G. ; Lauerwald, R. ; Li, W. ; Smith, N.E. ; Peters, W. ; Goll, D.S. ; Jain, A.K. ; Kato, E. ; Lienert, S. ; Lombardozzi, D.L. ; Haverd, V. ; Nabel, J.E.M.S. ; Poulter, B. ; Tian, H. ; Walker, A.P. ; Zaehle, S. - \ 2020
    Global Biogeochemical Cycles 34 (2020)2. - ISSN 0886-6236
    atmospheric inversions - carbon cycle - dynamic global vegetation models - global carbon budget

    The Global Carbon Budget 2018 (GCB2018) estimated by the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, fossil fuel emissions, and modeled (bottom-up) land and ocean fluxes cannot be fully closed, leading to a “budget imbalance,” highlighting uncertainties in GCB components. However, no systematic analysis has been performed on which regions or processes contribute to this term. To obtain deeper insight on the sources of uncertainty in global and regional carbon budgets, we analyzed differences in Net Biome Productivity (NBP) for all possible combinations of bottom-up and top-down data sets in GCB2018: (i) 16 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), and (ii) 5 atmospheric inversions that match the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. We find that the global mismatch between the two ensembles matches well the GCB2018 budget imbalance, with Brazil, Southeast Asia, and Oceania as the largest contributors. Differences between DGVMs dominate global mismatches, while at regional scale differences between inversions contribute the most to uncertainty. At both global and regional scales, disagreement on NBP interannual variability between the two approaches explains a large fraction of differences. We attribute this mismatch to distinct responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability between DGVMs and inversions and to uncertainties in land use change emissions, especially in South America and Southeast Asia. We identify key needs to reduce uncertainty in carbon budgets: reducing uncertainty in atmospheric inversions (e.g., through more observations in the tropics) and in land use change fluxes, including more land use processes and evaluating land use transitions (e.g., using high-resolution remote-sensing), and, finally, improving tropical hydroecological processes and fire representation within DGVMs.

    Global 3-D Simulations of the Triple Oxygen Isotope Signature Δ17O in Atmospheric CO2
    Koren, Gerbrand ; Schneider, Linda ; Velde, Ivar R. van der; Schaik, Erik van; Gromov, Sergey S. ; Adnew, Getachew A. ; Mrozek Martino, Dorota J. ; Hofmann, Magdalena E.G. ; Liang, Mao Chang ; Mahata, Sasadhar ; Bergamaschi, Peter ; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. van der; Krol, Maarten C. ; Röckmann, Thomas ; Peters, Wouter - \ 2019
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2019). - ISSN 2169-897X
    O excess (ΔO) - carbon cycle - carbon dioxide (CO) - gross primary production (GPP) - mass-independent fractionation (MIF) - stable isotopes

    The triple oxygen isotope signature Δ17O in atmospheric CO2, also known as its “17O excess,” has been proposed as a tracer for gross primary production (the gross uptake of CO2 by vegetation through photosynthesis). We present the first global 3-D model simulations for Δ17O in atmospheric CO2 together with a detailed model description and sensitivity analyses. In our 3-D model framework we include the stratospheric source of Δ17O in CO2 and the surface sinks from vegetation, soils, ocean, biomass burning, and fossil fuel combustion. The effect of oxidation of atmospheric CO on Δ17O in CO2 is also included in our model. We estimate that the global mean Δ17O (defined as Δ17O = ln(δ17O+1)−λRL·ln(δ18O+1) with λRL = 0.5229) of CO2 in the lowest 500 m of the atmosphere is 39.6 per meg, which is ∼20 per meg lower than estimates from existing box models. We compare our model results with a measured stratospheric Δ17O in CO2 profile from Sodankylä (Finland), which shows good agreement. In addition, we compare our model results with tropospheric measurements of Δ17O in CO2 from Göttingen (Germany) and Taipei (Taiwan), which shows some agreement but we also find substantial discrepancies that are subsequently discussed. Finally, we show model results for Zotino (Russia), Mauna Loa (United States), Manaus (Brazil), and South Pole, which we propose as possible locations for future measurements of Δ17O in tropospheric CO2 that can help to further increase our understanding of the global budget of Δ17O in atmospheric CO2.

    Global atmospheric CO2 inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate
    Gaubert, Benjamin ; Stephens, Britton B. ; Basu, Sourish ; Chevallier, Frédéric ; Deng, Feng ; Kort, Eric A. ; Patra, Prabir K. ; Peters, Wouter ; Rödenbeck, Christian ; Saeki, Tazu ; Schimel, David ; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid van der; Wofsy, Steven ; Yin, Yi - \ 2019
    Biogeosciences 16 (2019)1. - ISSN 1726-4170 - p. 117 - 134.

    We have compared a suite of recent global CO2 atmospheric inversion results to independent airborne observations and to each other, to assess their dependence on differences in northern extratropical (NET) vertical transport and to identify some of the drivers of model spread. We evaluate posterior CO2 concentration profiles against observations from the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-To-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft campaigns over the mid-Pacific in 2009-2011. Although the models differ in inverse approaches, assimilated observations, prior fluxes, and transport models, their broad latitudinal separation of land fluxes has converged significantly since the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Inversion Intercomparison (TransCom 3) and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) projects, with model spread reduced by 80% since TransCom 3 and 70% since RECCAP. Most modeled CO2 fields agree reasonably well with the HIPPO observations, specifically for the annual mean vertical gradients in the Northern Hemisphere. Northern Hemisphere vertical mixing no longer appears to be a dominant driver of northern versus tropical (T) annual flux differences. Our newer suite of models still gives northern extratropical land uptake that is modest relative to previous estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013) and near-neutral tropical land uptake for 2009- 2011. Given estimates of emissions from deforestation, this implies a continued uptake in intact tropical forests that is strong relative to historical estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013). The results from these models for other time periods (2004-2014, 2001-2004, 1992-1996) and reevaluation of the TransCom 3 Level 2 and RECCAP results confirm that tropical land carbon fluxes including deforestation have been near neutral for several decades. However, models still have large disagreements on ocean-land partitioning. The fossil fuel (FF) and the atmospheric growth rate terms have been thought to be the best-known terms in the global carbon budget, but we show that they currently limit our ability to assess regional-scale terrestrial fluxes and ocean-land partitioning from the model ensemble.

    Global Carbon Budget 2017
    Quéré, Corinne Le; Andrew, Robbie M. ; Friedlingstein, Pierre ; Sitch, Stephen ; Pongratz, Julia ; Manning, Andrew C. ; Ivar Korsbakken, Jan ; Peters, Glen P. ; Canadell, Josep G. ; Jackson, Robert B. ; Boden, Thomas A. ; Tans, Pieter P. ; Andrews, Oliver D. ; Arora, Vivek K. ; Bakker, Dorothee C.E. ; Barbero, Leticia ; Becker, Meike ; Betts, Richard A. ; Bopp, Laurent ; Chevallier, Frédéric ; Chini, Louise P. ; Ciais, Philippe ; Cosca, Catherine E. ; Cross, Jessica ; Currie, Kim ; Gasser, Thomas ; Harris, Ian ; Hauck, Judith ; Haverd, Vanessa ; Houghton, Richard A. ; Hunt, Christopher W. ; Hurtt, George ; Ilyina, Tatiana ; Jain, Atul K. ; Kato, Etsushi ; Kautz, Markus ; Keeling, Ralph F. ; Klein Goldewijk, Kees ; Körtzinger, Arne ; Landschützer, Peter ; Lefèvre, Nathalie ; Lenton, Andrew ; Lienert, Sebastian ; Lima, Ivan ; Lombardozzi, Danica ; Metzl, Nicolas ; Millero, Frank ; Monteiro, Pedro M.S. ; Munro, David R. ; Nabel, Julia E.M.S. ; Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro ; Nojiri, Yukihiro ; Antonio Padin, X. ; Peregon, Anna ; Pfeil, Benjamin ; Pierrot, Denis ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Rehder, Gregor ; Reimer, Janet ; Rödenbeck, Christian ; Schwinger, Jörg ; Séférian, Roland ; Skjelvan, Ingunn ; Stocker, Benjamin D. ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tilbrook, Bronte ; Tubiello, Francesco N. ; Luijkx, Ingrid ; Werf, Guido R. Van Der; Heuven, Steven Van; Viovy, Nicolas ; Vuichard, Nicolas ; Walker, Anthony P. ; Watson, Andrew J. ; Wiltshire, Andrew J. ; Zaehle, Sönke ; Zhu, Dan - \ 2018
    University of East Anglia
    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
    Wereldwijde uitstoot CO2 neemt weer toe
    Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid van der; Peters, Wouter - \ 2018
    Global Carbon Budget 2018
    Quéré, Corinne ; Andrew, Robbie ; Friedlingstein, Pierre ; Sitch, Stephen ; Hauck, Judith ; Pongratz, Julia ; Pickers, Penelope ; Ivar Korsbakken, Jan ; Peters, Glen ; Canadell, Josep ; Arneth, Almut ; Arora, Vivek ; Barbero, Leticia ; Bastos, Ana ; Bopp, Laurent ; Ciais, Philippe ; Chini, Louise ; Ciais, Philippe ; Doney, Scott ; Gkritzalis, Thanos ; Goll, Daniel ; Harris, Ian ; Haverd, Vanessa ; Hoffman, Forrest ; Hoppema, Mario ; Houghton, Richard ; Hurtt, George ; Ilyina, Tatiana ; Jain, Atul ; Johannessen, Truls ; Jones, Chris ; Kato, Etsushi ; Keeling, Ralph ; Klein Goldewijk, Kees ; Landschützer, Peter ; Lefèvre, Nathalie ; Lienert, Sebastian ; Liu, Zhu ; Lombardozzi, Danica ; Metzl, Nicolas ; Munro, David ; Nabel, Julia ; Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro ; Neill, Craig ; Olsen, Are ; Ono, Tsueno ; Patra, Prabir ; Peregon, Anna ; Peters, Wouter ; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid Van Der - \ 2018
    Earth System Science Data 10 (2018)4. - ISSN 1866-3508 - p. 2141 - 2194.

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008-2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yrĝ'1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959-2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yrĝ'1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

    Changes in surface hydrology, soil moisture, and Gross Primary Productivity in the Amazon during the 2015/2016 El Niño
    Laan-Luijkx, I.T. van der - \ 2018
    This zip file contains XX individual NetCDF files with the data used for the publication of van Schaik et al. 2018 in the Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society. Full description of the methodology used to create these numbers is available from the publication and its Supplement.
    Changes in surface hydrology, soil moisture and gross primary production in the Amazon during the 2015/2016 El Niño
    Schaik, Erik van; Killaars, Lars ; Smith, Naomi E. ; Koren, Gerbrand ; Beek, L.P.H. van; Peters, Wouter ; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. van der - \ 2018
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. Biological sciences 373 (2018)1760. - ISSN 0962-8436 - 9 p.
    Amazon - El Niño - gross primary productivity - river discharge - soil moisture - tropical terrestrial carbon cycle

    The 2015/2016 El Niño event caused severe changes in precipitation across the tropics. This impacted surface hydrology, such as river run-off and soil moisture availability, thereby triggering reductions in gross primary production (GPP). Many biosphere models lack the detailed hydrological component required to accurately quantify anomalies in surface hydrology and GPP during droughts in tropical regions. Here, we take the novel approach of coupling the biosphere model SiBCASA with the advanced hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB to attempt such a quantification across the Amazon basin during the drought in 2015/2016. We calculate 30-40% reduced river discharge in the Amazon starting in October 2015, lagging behind the precipitation anomaly by approximately one month and in good agreement with river gauge observations. Soil moisture shows distinctly asymmetrical spatial anomalies with large reductions across the north-eastern part of the basin, which persisted into the following dry season. This added to drought stress in vegetation, already present owing to vapour pressure deficits at the leaf, resulting in a loss of GPP of 0.95 (0.69 to 1.20) PgC between October 2015 and March 2016 compared with the 2007-2014 average. Only 11% (10-12%) of the reduction in GPP was found in the (wetter) north-western part of the basin, whereas the north-eastern and southern regions were affected more strongly, with 56% (54-56%) and 33% (31-33%) of the total, respectively. Uncertainty on this anomaly mostly reflects the unknown rooting depths of vegetation.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

    Widespread reduction in sun-induced fluorescence from the Amazon during the 2015/2016 El Niño
    Koren, Gerbrand ; Schaik, Erik van; Araújo, Alessandro C. ; Boersma, K.F. ; Gärtner, Antje ; Killaars, Lars ; Kooreman, Maurits L. ; Kruijt, Bart ; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. van der; Randow, Celso von; Smith, Naomi E. ; Peters, Wouter - \ 2018
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. Biological sciences 373 (2018)1760. - ISSN 0962-8436 - 10 p.
    Amazon rainforest - drought response - El Niño-Southern Oscillation - gross primary production - sun-induced fluorescence - tropical terrestrial carbon cycle

    The tropical carbon balance dominates year-to-year variations in the CO2 exchange with the atmosphere through photosynthesis, respiration and fires. Because of its high correlation with gross primary productivity (GPP), observations of sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) are of great interest. We developed a new remotely sensed SIF product with improved signal-to-noise in the tropics, and use it here to quantify the impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño Amazon drought. We find that SIF was strongly suppressed over areas with anomalously high temperatures and decreased levels of water in the soil. SIF went below its climatological range starting from the end of the 2015 dry season (October) and returned to normal levels by February 2016 when atmospheric conditions returned to normal, but well before the end of anomalously low precipitation that persisted through June 2016. Impacts were not uniform across the Amazon basin, with the eastern part experiencing much larger (10-15%) SIF reductions than the western part of the basin (2-5%). We estimate the integrated loss of GPP relative to eight previous years to be 0.34-0.48 PgC in the three-month period October-November-December 2015.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

    CTDAS-Lagrange v1.0 : A high-resolution data assimilation system for regional carbon dioxide observations
    He, Wei ; Velde, Ivar R. van der; Andrews, Arlyn E. ; Sweeney, Colm ; Miller, John ; Tans, Pieter ; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. van der; Nehrkorn, Thomas ; Mountain, Marikate ; Ju, Weimin ; Peters, Wouter ; Chen, Huilin - \ 2018
    Geoscientific Model Development 11 (2018)8. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 3515 - 3536.

    We have implemented a regional carbon dioxide data assimilation system based on the CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS) and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model, the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model driven by the Weather Forecast and Research meteorological fields (WRF-STILT). With this system, named CTDAS-Lagrange, we simultaneously optimize terrestrial biosphere fluxes and four parameters that adjust the lateral boundary conditions (BCs) against CO2 observations from the NOAA ESRL North America tall tower and aircraft programmable flask packages (PFPs) sampling program. Least-squares optimization is performed with a time-stepping ensemble Kalman smoother, over a time window of 10 days and assimilating sequentially a time series of observations. Because the WRF-STILT footprints are pre-computed, it is computationally efficient to run the CTDAS-Lagrange system. To estimate the uncertainties in the optimized fluxes from the system, we performed sensitivity tests with various a priori biosphere fluxes (SiBCASA, SiB3, CT2013B) and BCs (optimized mole fraction fields from CT2013B and CTE2014, and an empirical dataset derived from aircraft observations), as well as with a variety of choices on the ways that fluxes are adjusted (additive or multiplicative), covariance length scales, biosphere flux covariances, BC parameter uncertainties, and model-data mismatches. In pseudo-data experiments, we show that in our implementation the additive flux adjustment method is more flexible in optimizing net ecosystem exchange (NEE) than the multiplicative flux adjustment method, and our sensitivity tests with real observations show that the CTDAS-Lagrange system has the ability to correct for the potential biases in the lateral BCs and to resolve large biases in the prior biosphere fluxes. Using real observations, we have derived a range of estimates for the optimized carbon fluxes from a series of sensitivity tests, which places the North American carbon sink for the year 2010 in a range from -0.92 to -1.26PgCyr-1. This is comparable to the TM5-based estimates of CarbonTracker (version CT2016, -0.91±1.10PgCyr-1) and CarbonTracker Europe (version CTE2016, -0.91±0.31PgCyr-1). We conclude that CTDAS-Lagrange can offer a versatile and computationally attractive alternative to these global systems for regional estimates of carbon fluxes, which can take advantage of high-resolution Lagrangian footprints that are increasingly easy to obtain.

    Increased water-use efficiency and reduced CO2 uptake by plants during droughts at a continental scale
    Peters, W. ; Velde, I.R. van der; Schaik, Erik van; Miller, John B. ; Ciais, Philippe ; Duarte, Henrique F. ; Laan-Luijkx, I.T. van der; Molen, M.K. van der; Scholze, M. ; Schaefer, Kevin ; Vidale, Pier Luigi ; Verhoef, Anne ; Wårlind, D. ; Zhu, Dan ; Tans, Pieter P. ; Vaughn, Bruce ; White, James W.C. - \ 2018
    Nature Geoscience 11 (2018). - ISSN 1752-0894 - p. 744 - 748.
    Severe droughts in the Northern Hemisphere cause a widespread decline of agricultural yield, the reduction of forest carbon uptake, and increased CO2 growth rates in the atmosphere. Plants respond to droughts by partially closing their stomata to limit their evaporative water loss, at the expense of carbon uptake by photosynthesis. This trade-off maximizes their water-use efficiency (WUE), as measured for many individual plants under laboratory conditions and field experiments. Here we analyse the 13C/12C stable isotope ratio in atmospheric CO2 to provide new observational evidence of the impact of droughts on the WUE across areas of millions of square kilometres and spanning one decade of recent climate variability. We find strong and spatially coherent increases in WUE along with widespread reductions of net carbon uptake over the Northern Hemisphere during severe droughts that affected Europe, Russia and the United States in 2001–2011. The impact of those droughts on WUE and carbon uptake by vegetation is substantially larger than simulated by the land-surface schemes of six state-of-the-art climate models. This suggests that drought-induced carbon–climate feedbacks may be too small in these models and improvements to their vegetation dynamics using stable isotope observations can help to improve their drought response.
    Global Carbon Budget 2017
    Quéré, Corinne Le; Andrew, Robbie M. ; Friedlingstein, Pierre ; Sitch, Stephen ; Pongratz, Julia ; Manning, Andrew C. ; Ivar Korsbakken, Jan ; Peters, Glen P. ; Canadell, Josep G. ; Jackson, Robert B. ; Boden, Thomas A. ; Tans, Pieter P. ; Andrews, Oliver D. ; Arora, Vivek K. ; Bakker, Dorothee C.E. ; Barbero, Leticia ; Becker, Meike ; Betts, Richard A. ; Bopp, Laurent ; Chevallier, Frédéric ; Chini, Louise P. ; Ciais, Philippe ; Cosca, Catherine E. ; Cross, Jessica ; Currie, Kim ; Gasser, Thomas ; Harris, Ian ; Hauck, Judith ; Haverd, Vanessa ; Houghton, Richard A. ; Hunt, Christopher W. ; Hurtt, George ; Ilyina, Tatiana ; Jain, Atul K. ; Kato, Etsushi ; Kautz, Markus ; Keeling, Ralph F. ; Klein Goldewijk, Kees ; Körtzinger, Arne ; Landschützer, Peter ; Lefèvre, Nathalie ; Lenton, Andrew ; Lienert, Sebastian ; Lima, Ivan ; Lombardozzi, Danica ; Metzl, Nicolas ; Millero, Frank ; Monteiro, Pedro M.S. ; Munro, David R. ; Nabel, Julia E.M.S. ; Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro ; Nojiri, Yukihiro ; Padin, X.A. ; Peregon, Anna ; Pfeil, Benjamin ; Pierrot, Denis ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Rehder, Gregor ; Reimer, Janet ; Rödenbeck, Christian ; Schwinger, Jörg ; Séférian, Roland ; Skjelvan, Ingunn ; Stocker, Benjamin D. ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tilbrook, Bronte ; Tubiello, Francesco N. ; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. van der; Werf, Guido R. van der; Heuven, Steven Van; Viovy, Nicolas ; Vuichard, Nicolas ; Walker, Anthony P. ; Watson, Andrew J. ; Wiltshire, Andrew J. ; Zaehle, Sönke ; Zhu, Dan - \ 2018
    Earth System Science Data 10 (2018)1. - ISSN 1866-3508 - p. 405 - 448.
    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1δ. For the last decade available (2007-2016), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.3±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.7±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.0±0.8 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.1±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 2.7±1.0 GtC yr-1, with a small BIM of-0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Ninõ conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8±0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of C2.0% (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
    Brazilië stelt gebied groter dan Nederland open voor goudwinning
    Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid van der - \ 2017
    The CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS) v1.0 : Implementation and global carbon balance 2001-2015
    Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. Van Der; Velde, Ivar R. Van Der; Veen, Emma Van Der; Tsuruta, Aki ; Stanislawska, Karolina ; Babenhauserheide, Arne ; Fang Zhang, Hui ; Liu, Yu ; He, Wei ; Chen, Huilin ; Masarie, Kenneth A. ; Krol, Maarten C. ; Peters, Wouter - \ 2017
    Geoscientific Model Development 10 (2017)7. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 2785 - 2800.
    Data assimilation systems are used increasingly to constrain the budgets of reactive and long-lived gases measured in the atmosphere. Each trace gas has its own lifetime, dominant sources and sinks, and observational network (from flask sampling and in situ measurements to space-based remote sensing) and therefore comes with its own optimal configuration of the data assimilation. The CarbonTracker Europe data assimilation system for CO2 estimates global carbon sources and sinks, and updates are released annually and used in carbon cycle studies. CarbonTracker Europe simulations are performed using the new modular implementation of the data assimilation system: The CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS). Here, we present and document this redesign of the data assimilation code that forms the heart of CarbonTracker, specifically meant to enable easy extension and modification of the data assimilation system. This paper also presents the setup of the latest version of CarbonTracker Europe (CTE2016), including the use of the gridded state vector, and shows the resulting carbon flux estimates. We present the distribution of the carbon sinks over the hemispheres and between the land biosphere and the oceans. We show that with equal fossil fuel emissions, 2015 has a higher atmospheric CO2 growth rate compared to 2014, due to reduced net land carbon uptake in later year. The European carbon sink is especially present in the forests, and the average average net uptake over 2001-2015 was 0:17±0:11 PgCyr-1 with reductions to zero during drought years. Finally, we also demonstrate the versatility of CTDAS by presenting an overview of the wide range of applications for which it has been used so far.
    Global methane emission estimates for 2000-2012 from CarbonTracker Europe-CH4 v1.0
    Tsuruta, Aki ; Aalto, Tuula ; Backman, Leif ; Hakkarainen, Janne ; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. Van Der; Krol, Maarten C. ; Spahni, Renato ; Houweling, Sander ; Laine, Marko ; Dlugokencky, Ed ; Gomez-Pelaez, Angel J. ; Schoot, Marcel Van Der; Langenfelds, Ray ; Ellul, Raymond ; Arduini, Jgor ; Apadula, Francesco ; Gerbig, Christoph ; Feist, D.G. ; Kivi, Rigel ; Yoshida, Yukio ; Peters, Wouter - \ 2017
    Geoscientific Model Development 10 (2017)3. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 1261 - 1289.

    We present a global distribution of surface methane (CH4) emission estimates for 2000-2012 derived using the CarbonTracker Europe-CH4 (CTE-CH4) data assimilation system. In CTE-CH4, anthropogenic and biospheric CH4 emissions are simultaneously estimated based on constraints of global atmospheric in situ CH4 observations. The system was configured to either estimate only anthropogenic or biospheric sources per region, or to estimate both categories simultaneously. The latter increased the number of optimizable parameters from 62 to 78. In addition, the differences between two numerical schemes available to perform turbulent vertical mixing in the atmospheric transport model TM5 were examined. Together, the system configurations encompass important axes of uncertainty in inversions and allow us to examine the robustness of the flux estimates. The posterior emission estimates are further evaluated by comparing simulated atmospheric CH4 to surface in situ observations, vertical profiles of CH4 made by aircraft, remotely sensed dry-air total column-averaged mole fraction (XCH4) from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and XCH4 from the Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT). The evaluation with non-assimilated observations shows that posterior XCH4 is better matched with the retrievals when the vertical mixing scheme with faster interhemispheric exchange is used. Estimated posterior mean total global emissions during 2000-2012 are 516 ± 51 Tg CH4 yr-1, with an increase of 18 Tg CH4 yr-1 from 2000-2006 to 2007-2012. The increase is mainly driven by an increase in emissions from South American temperate, Asian temperate and Asian tropical TransCom regions. In addition, the increase is hardly sensitive to different model configurations ( < 2 Tg CH4 yr-1 difference), and much smaller than suggested by EDGAR v4.2 FT2010 inventory (33 Tg CH4 yr-1), which was used for prior anthropogenic emission estimates. The result is in good agreement with other published estimates from inverse modelling studies (16-20 Tg CH4 yr-1). However, this study could not conclusively separate a small trend in biospheric emissions (-5 to +6.9 Tg CH4 yr-1) from the much larger trend in anthropogenic emissions (15-27 Tg CH4 yr-1). Finally, we find that the global and North American CH4 balance could be closed over this time period without the previously suggested need to strongly increase anthropogenic CH4 emissions in the United States. With further developments, especially on the treatment of the atmospheric CH4 sink, we expect the data assimilation system presented here will be able to contribute to the ongoing interpretation of changes in this important greenhouse gas budget.

    Wat gaat de Amazone doen? : laser, satelliet en meetlint vertellen hoe het regenwoud klimaatverandering doorstaat
    Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid van der - \ 2016

    Het is vaker droog dan voorheen in de Amazone, en dan produceert ’s werelds grootste oerwoud enorme hoeveelheden CO2. Mogelijk gaat het bos er zelfs aan onderdoor, met grote gevolgen voor het klimaat. Wageningse onderzoekers zien zowel tekenen van stress als een verrassend grote veerkracht.

    Inferring 222Rn soil fluxes from ambient 222Rn activity and eddy covariance measurements of CO2
    Laan, Sander van der; Manohar, Swagath ; Vermeulen, Alex ; Bosveld, Fred ; Meijer, Harro ; Manning, Andrew ; Molen, Michiel van der; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid van der - \ 2016
    Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 9 (2016)11. - ISSN 1867-1381 - p. 5523 - 5533.
    We present a new methodology, which we call Single Pair of Observations Technique with Eddy Covariance (SPOT-EC), to estimate regional-scale surface fluxes of 222Rn from tower-based observations of 222Rn activity concentration, CO2 mole fractions and direct CO2 flux measurements from eddy covariance. For specific events, the regional (222Rn) surface flux is calculated from short-term changes in ambient (222Rn) activity concentration scaled by the ratio of the mean CO2 surface flux for the specific event to the change in its observed mole fraction. The resulting 222Rn surface emissions are integrated in time (between the moment of observation and the last prior background levels) and space (i.e. over the footprint of the observations). The measurement uncertainty obtained is about ±15 % for diurnal events and about ±10 % for longer-term (e.g. seasonal or annual) means. The method does not provide continuous observations, but reliable daily averages can be obtained. We applied our method to in situ observations from two sites in the Netherlands: Cabauw station (CBW) and Lutjewad station (LUT). For LUT, which is an intensive agricultural site, we estimated a mean 222Rn surface flux of (0.29 ± 0.02) atoms cm−2 s−1 with values  > 0.5 atoms cm−2 s−1 to the south and south-east. For CBW we estimated a mean 222Rn surface flux of (0.63 ± 0.04) atoms cm−2 s−1. The highest values were observed to the south-west, where the soil type is mainly river clay. For both stations good agreement was found between our results and those from measurements with soil chambers and two recently published 222Rn soil flux maps for Europe. At both sites, large spatial and temporal variability of 222Rn surface fluxes were observed which would be impractical to measure with a soil chamber. SPOT-EC, therefore, offers an important new tool for estimating regional-scale 222Rn surface fluxes. Practical applications furthermore include calibration of process-based 222Rn soil flux models, validation of atmospheric transport models and performing regional-scale inversions, e.g. of greenhouse gases via the SPOT 222Rn-tracer method.
    Global Carbon Budget 2016
    Quéré, C. Le; Andrew, R.M. ; Canadell, J.G. ; Sitch, Stephen ; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar ; Peters, Glen P. ; Manning, Andrew C. ; Boden, Thomas A. ; Tans, Pieter P. ; Houghton, Richard A. ; Keeling, Ralph F. ; Alin, Simone ; Andrews, Oliver D. ; Anthoni, Peter ; Barbero, Leticia ; Bopp, Laurent ; Chevallier, Frédéric ; Chini, Louise P. ; Ciais, Philippe ; Currie, Kim ; Delire, Christine ; Doney, Scott C. ; Friedlingstein, Pierre ; Gkritzalis, Thanos ; Harris, Ian ; Hauck, Judith ; Haverd, Vanessa ; Hoppema, Mario ; Klein Goldewijk, Kees ; Jain, Atul K. ; Kato, Etsushi ; Körtzinger, Arne ; Landschützer, Peter ; Lefèvre, Nathalie ; Lenton, Andrew ; Lienert, Sebastian ; Lombardozzi, Danica ; Melton, Joe R. ; Metzl, Nicolas ; Millero, Frank ; Monteiro, Pedro M.S. ; Munro, David R. ; Nabel, Julia E.M.S. ; Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro ; O'Brien, Kevin ; Olsen, Are ; Omar, Abdirahman M. ; Ono, Tsuneo ; Pierrot, Denis ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Rödenbeck, Christian ; Salisbury, Joe ; Schuster, Ute ; Séférian, Roland ; Skjelvan, Ingunn ; Stocker, Benjamin D. ; Sutton, Adrienne J. ; Takahashi, Taro ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tilbrook, Bronte ; Laan-Luijkx, I.T. van der; Werf, Guido R. Van Der; Viovy, Nicolas ; Walker, Anthony P. ; Wiltshire, Andrew J. ; Zaehle, Sönke - \ 2016
    CDIAC
    Global Carbon Budget 2016
    Quéré, Corinne Le; Andrew, Robbie M. ; Canadell, Josep G. ; Sitch, Stephen ; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar ; Peters, Glen P. ; Manning, Andrew C. ; Boden, Thomas A. ; Tans, Pieter P. ; Houghton, Richard A. ; Keeling, Ralph F. ; Alin, Simone ; Andrews, Oliver D. ; Anthoni, Peter ; Barbero, Leticia ; Bopp, Laurent ; Chevallier, Frédéric ; Chini, Louise P. ; Ciais, Philippe ; Currie, Kim ; Delire, Christine ; Doney, Scott C. ; Friedlingstein, Pierre ; Gkritzalis, Thanos ; Harris, Ian ; Hauck, Judith ; Haverd, Vanessa ; Hoppema, Mario ; Klein Goldewijk, Kees ; Jain, Atul K. ; Kato, Etsushi ; Körtzinger, Arne ; Landschützer, Peter ; Lefèvre, Nathalie ; Lenton, Andrew ; Lienert, Sebastian ; Lombardozzi, Danica ; Melton, Joe R. ; Metzl, Nicolas ; Millero, Frank ; Monteiro, Pedro M.S. ; Munro, David R. ; Nabel, Julia E.M.S. ; Nakaoka, S. ; O'Brien, Kevin ; Olsen, Are ; Omar, Abdirahman M. ; Ono, Tsuneo ; Pierrot, Denis ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Rödenbeck, Christian ; Salisbury, Joe ; Schuster, Ute ; Schwinger, Jörg ; Séférian, Roland ; Skjelvan, Ingunn ; Stocker, Benjamin D. ; Sutton, Adrienne J. ; Takahashi, Taro ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tilbrook, Bronte ; Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. van der; Werf, Guido R. van der; Viovy, Nicolas ; Walker, Anthony P. ; Wiltshire, Andrew J. ; Zaehle, Sönke - \ 2016
    Earth System Science Data 8 (2016)2. - ISSN 1866-3508 - p. 605 - 649.
    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr−1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
    De amazone slaat minder CO2 op
    Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid van der - \ 2016
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