Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
Schewe, Jacob ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Reyer, Christopher ; Zhao, Fang ; Ciais, Philippe ; Elliott, Joshua ; Francois, Louis ; Huber, Veronika ; Lotze, Heike K. ; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ; Vliet, Michelle T.H. Van; Vautard, Robert ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Breuer, Lutz ; Büchner, Matthias ; Carozza, David A. ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Coll, Marta ; Deryng, Delphine ; Wit, Allard De; Eddy, Tyler D. ; Folberth, Christian ; Frieler, Katja ; Friend, Andrew D. ; Gerten, Dieter ; Gudmundsson, Lukas ; Hanasaki, Naota ; Ito, Akihiko ; Khabarov, Nikolay ; Kim, Hyungjun ; Lawrence, Peter ; Morfopoulos, Catherine ; Müller, Christoph ; Müller Schmied, Hannes ; Orth, René ; Ostberg, Sebastian ; Pokhrel, Yadu ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. ; Sakurai, Gen ; Satoh, Yusuke ; Schmid, Erwin ; Stacke, Tobias ; Steenbeek, Jeroen ; Steinkamp, Jörg ; Tang, Qiuhong ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tittensor, Derek P. ; Volkholz, Jan ; Wang, Xuhui ; Warszawski, Lila - \ 2019
Nature Communications 10 (2019). - ISSN 2041-1723
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
Genome wide association study of body weight and feed efficiency traits in a commercial broiler chicken population, a re-visitation
Mebratie, Wossenie ; Reyer, Henry ; Wimmers, Klaus ; Bovenhuis, Henk ; Jensen, Just - \ 2019
Scientific Reports 9 (2019)1. - ISSN 2045-2322

Genome wide association study was conducted using a mixed linear model (MLM) approach that accounted for family structure to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and candidate genes associated with body weight (BW) and feed efficiency (FE) traits in a broiler chicken population. The results of the MLM approach were compared with the results of a general linear model approach that does not take family structure in to account. In total, 11 quantitative trait loci (QTL) and 21 SNPs, were identified to be significantly associated with BW traits and 5 QTL and 5 SNPs were found associated with FE traits using MLM approach. Besides some overlaps between the results of the two GWAS approaches, there are considerable differences in the detected QTL. Even though the genomic inflation factor (λ) values indicate that there is no strong family structure in this population, using models that account for the existing family structure may reduce bias and increase accuracy of the estimated SNP effects in the association analysis. The SNPs and candidate genes identified in this study provide information on the genetic background of BW and FE traits in broiler chickens and might be used as prior information for genomic selection.

A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change
Yousefpour, Rasoul ; Temperli, Christian ; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl ; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark ; Meilby, Henrik ; Lexer, Manfred J. ; Lindner, Marcus ; Bugmann, Harald ; Borges, Jose G. ; Palma, João H.N. ; Ray, Duncan ; Zimmermann, Niklaus E. ; Delzon, Sylvain ; Kremer, Antoine ; Kramer, Koen ; Reyer, Christopher P.O. ; Lasch-Born, Petra ; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi ; Hanewinkel, Marc - \ 2017
Ecology and Society 22 (2017)4. - ISSN 1708-3087
Behavioral adaptation - Europe - Forest management - Knowledge management - Mathematical programming - Process-based models - Spatial planning
Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.
Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
Frieler, Katja ; Lange, Stefan ; Piontek, Franziska ; Reyer, Christopher P.O. ; Schewe, Jacob ; Warszawski, Lila ; Zhao, Fang ; Chini, Louise ; Denvil, Sebastien ; Emanuel, Kerry ; Geiger, Tobias ; Halladay, Kate ; Hurtt, George ; Mengel, Matthias ; Murakami, Daisgbre ; Ostberg, Sebastian ; Popp, Alexander ; Riva, Riccardo ; Stevanovic, Miodrag ; SuzGBRi, Tatsuo ; Volkholz, Jan ; Burke, Eleanor ; Ciais, Philippe ; Ebi, Kristie ; Eddy, Tyler D. ; Elliott, Joshua ; Galbraith, Eric ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Hattermann, Fred ; Hickler, Thomas ; Hinkel, Jochen ; Hof, Christian ; Huber, Veronika ; Jägermeyr, Jonas ; Krysanova, Valentina ; Marcé, Rafael ; Müller Schmied, Hannes ; Mouratiadou, Ioanna ; Pierson, Don ; Tittensor, Derek P. ; Vautard, Robert ; Vliet, Michelle Van; Biber, Matthias F. ; Betts, Richard A. ; Leon Bodirsky, Benjamin ; Deryng, Delphine ; Frolking, Steve ; Jones, Chris D. ; Lotze, Heike K. ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Sahajpal, Ritvik ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Tian, Hanqin ; Yamagata, Yoshiki - \ 2017
Geoscientific Model Development 10 (2017)12. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 4321 - 4345.
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5ĝ€°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5ĝ€°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?
Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver ; Bathgate, Stephan ; Blennow, K. ; Borges, J.G. ; Bugmann, Harald ; Delzon, Sylvain ; Faias, Sonia P. ; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi ; Gardiner, Barry ; Gonzalez-Olabarria, J.R. ; Gracia, Carlos ; Guerra Hernandez, Jordi ; Kellomaki, Seppo ; Kramer, K. ; Lexer, M.J. ; Lindner, Marcus ; Maaten, Ernest van der; Maroschek, M. ; Muys, Bart ; Nicoll, B. ; Palahi, M. ; Palma, J.H.N. ; Paulo, Joana A. ; Peltola, H. ; Pukkala, T. ; Rammer, W. ; Ray, D. ; Sabaté, S. ; Schelhaas, M. ; Seidl, R. ; Temperli, Christian ; Tomé, Margarida ; Yousefpour, R. ; Zimmerman, N.E. ; Hanewinkel, Marc - \ 2017
Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017)3. - ISSN 1748-9326
Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.
Models for adaptive forest management
Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver ; Bugmann, Harald ; Nabuurs, Gert Jan ; Hanewinkel, Marc - \ 2015
Regional Environmental Change 15 (2015)8. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 1483 - 1487.
Alternative forest management strategies to account for climate change-induced productivity and species suitability changes in Europe
Schelhaas, M.J. ; Nabuurs, G.J. ; Hengeveld, G.M. ; Reyer, C. ; Hanewinkel, M. ; Zimmermann, N.E. ; Cullmann, D. - \ 2015
Regional Environmental Change 15 (2015)8. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 1581 - 1594.
We present for the first time a study on alternative forest management at the European scale to account for climate change impacts. We combine insights into detailed studies at high resolution with the actual status of the forest and a realistic estimate of the current management practices at large scale. Results show that the European forest system is very inert and that it takes a long time to influence the species distribution by replacing species after final felling. By 2070, on average about 36 % of the area expected to have decreased species suitability will have changed species following business as usual management. Alternative management, consisting of shorter rotations for those species and species planting based on expected trends, will have increased this species transition to 40 %. The simulated forward-looking alternative management leads to some reduction in increment, but does not influence the amount of wood removed from the forest. Northern Europe is projected to show the highest production increases under climate change and can also adapt faster to the new (proposed) species distribution. Southwest Europe is expected to face the greatest challenge by a combination of a predicted loss of production and a slow rate of management alteration under climate change.
Forest resilience and tipping points at different spatio-temporal scales: approaches and challenges
Reyer, C.P.O. ; Brouwers, N. ; Rammig, A. ; Brook, B.W. ; Holmgren, M. ; Villela, D.M. - \ 2015
Journal of Ecology 103 (2015)1. - ISSN 0022-0477 - p. 5 - 15.
global vegetation model - climate-change impacts - amazon rain-forest - carbon-dioxide - elevated co2 - tree mortality - boreal forest - regime shifts - primary productivity - critical transitions
1. Anthropogenic global change compromises forest resilience, with profound impacts to ecosystem functions and services. This synthesis paper reflects on the current understanding of forest resilience and potential tipping points under environmental change and explores challenges to assessing responses using experiments, observations and models. 2. Forests are changing over a wide range of spatio-temporal scales, but it is often unclear whether these changes reduce resilience or represent a tipping point. Tipping points may arise from interactions across scales, as processes such as climate change, land-use change, invasive species or deforestation gradually erode resilience and increase vulnerability to extreme events. Studies covering interactions across different spatio-temporal scales are needed to further our understanding. 3. Combinations of experiments, observations and process-based models could improve our ability to project forest resilience and tipping points under global change. We discuss uncertainties in changing CO2 concentration and quantifying tree mortality as examples. 4. Synthesis. As forests change at various scales, it is increasingly important to understand whether and how such changes lead to reduced resilience and potential tipping points. Understanding the mechanisms underlying forest resilience and tipping points would help in assessing risks to ecosystems and presents opportunities for ecosystem restoration and sustainable forest management.
How fast can European forests adapt to climate change?
Nabuurs, G.J. ; Hengeveld, G.M. ; Schelhaas, M. ; Reyer, C. ; Hanewinkel, M. - \ 2014
In: Proceedings of the XXIV IUFRO World Congress: Sustaining forests, sustaining people: the role of research. - - p. 219 - 219.
The large diversity in abiotic and biotic circumstances in European forests makes it extremely diffi cult to predict what the impacts of climate change will be on the various tree species, and ecosystems at the various localities. This makes it even more diffi cult to analyze how forest management should adapt. The case studies in EU Motive-project provide, however, a basis for upscaling to the European scale. For the fi rst time we combine species changes as predicted by a climate envelop model with an incorporation of forest management responses in an empirical European forest resource model (EFISCEN). It is assumed that only then a forest owner will decide to change tree species at that site towards one that is more preferred according to the climate envelop model. The results indicate that tree species composition will change only slowly at the European scale. By 2070, 10% of the total forest area will have changed species.
Climate change and European forests: What do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?
Lindner, M. ; Fitzgerald, J.B. ; Zimmermann, N.E. ; Reyer, C. ; Delzon, S. ; Maaten, E. van der; Schelhaas, M. ; Lasch, P. ; Eggers, J. ; Maaten-Theunissen, M. van der; Suckow, F. ; Psomas, A. ; Pouler, B. ; Hanewinkel, M. - \ 2014
Journal of Environmental Management 146 (2014). - ISSN 0301-4797 - p. 69 - 83.
water-use efficiency - change impacts - elevated co2 - change risks - face sites - scots pine - drought - carbon - shift - trees
The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty - which is imperative for decision making - without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support.
How fast can European forests adapt to a changing climate?
Hengeveld, G.M. ; Schelhaas, M.J. ; Reyer, C. ; Zimmermann, N.E. ; Cullmann, D.A. ; Nabuurs, G.J. - \ 2013
In: Adapting to climate change in European forests – Results of the MOTIVE project / Fitzgerald, J., Lindner, M., Sofia : Pensoft Publishers - ISBN 9789546426901 - p. 80 - 82.
Scaling issues in forest ecosystem management and how to address them with models
Seidl, R. ; Eastaugh, C.S. ; Kramer, K. ; Maroschek, M. ; Reyer, C. ; Socha, J. ; Vacchiano, G. ; Zlatanov, T. ; Hasenauer, H. - \ 2013
European Journal of Forest Research 132 (2013)5-6. - ISSN 1612-4669 - p. 653 - 666.
individual-based models - climate-change impacts - global change - biome-bgc - biogeochemical model - adaptive capacity - carbon balance - use efficiency - landscape - scales
Scaling is widely recognized as a central issue in ecology. The associated cross-scale interactions and process transmutations make scaling (i.e. a change in spatial or temporal grain and extent) an important issue in understanding ecosystem structure and functioning. Moreover, current concepts of ecosystem stewardship, such as sustainability and resilience, are inherently scale-dependent. The importance of scale and scaling in the context of forest management is likely to further increase in the future because of the growing relevance of ecosystem services beyond timber production. As a result, a consideration of processes both below (e.g. leaf-level carbon uptake in the context of climate change mitigation) and above (e.g. managing for biodiversity conservation at the landscape scale) the traditional focus on the stand level is required in forest ecosystem management. Furthermore, climate change will affect a variety of ecosystem processes across scales, ranging from photosynthesis (tree organs) to disturbance regimes (landscape scale). Assessing potential climate change impacts on ecosystem services thus requires a multiscale perspective. However, scaling issues have received comparatively little attention in the forest management community to date. Our objectives here are thus first, to synthesize scaling issues relevant to forest management and second, to elucidate ways of dealing with complex scaling problems by highlighting examples of how they can be addressed with ecosystem models. We have focused on three current management issues of particular importance in European forestry: (1) climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, (2) multi-functional stand management for biodiversity and non-timber goods and services and (3) improving the resilience to natural disturbances. We conclude that taking into account the full spatiotemporal heterogeneity and dynamics of forest ecosystems in management decision-making is likely to make management more robust to increasing environmental and societal pressures. Models can aid this process through explicitly accounting for system dynamics and changing conditions, operationally addressing the complexity of cross-scale interactions and emerging properties. Our synthesis indicates that increased attention to scaling issues can help forest managers to integrate traditional management objectives with emerging concerns for ecosystem services and therefore deserves more attention in forestry.
Inter-specific competition in mixed forests of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica) under climate change – a model-based analysis
Reyer, C. ; Lasch, P. ; Mohren, G.M.J. ; Sterck, F.J. - \ 2010
Annals of Forest Science 67 (2010)8. - ISSN 1286-4560 - p. 805 - 805.
interspecific competition - european beech - volume growth - norway spruce - root biomass - stands - management - l. - netherlands - simulation
Mixed forests feature competitive interactions of the contributing species which influence their response to environmental change. • We analyzed climate change effects on the inter-specific competition in a managed Douglas-fir/beech mixed forest. • Therefore, we initialised the process-based forest model 4C with published fine root biomass distributions of Douglas-fir/beech stands and a stand composition originating from yield tables to simulate forest growth under regional climate change scenarios for a Dutch and a German site. • The number of days when the tree water demand exceeded the soil water supply was higher for Douglas-fir than for beech. After 45 simulation years the proportion of basal area covered by beech increased from one to seven percent. Beech’s competitive strength is mainly explained by the fine root biomass distributions and is highest under the historic climate and the driest climate change scenarios. Higher net primary production (NPP) under warmer/wetter climate but decreased NPP under warmer/drier conditions confirms Douglas-fir’s high sensitivity to limited water supply. • Simulated climate change does not substantially alter the interaction of the two species but the drought-stressed trees are more susceptible to insects or pathogens. The concept of complementary water use highlights the importance of mixed forest for climate change adaptation.
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