Snakes and ladders : World development pathways’ synergies and trade-offs through the lens of the Sustainable Development Goals
Philippidis, George ; Shutes, Lindsay ; M'Barek, Robert ; Ronzon, Tévécia ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van - \ 2020
Journal of Cleaner Production 267 (2020). - ISSN 0959-6526
Bioeconomy - CGE modelling - Global foresight study - SDGs
This paper takes three global visions of world development to 2050 and quantifies their implications for sustainable progress employing the metrics of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDG outcomes are structured through the interconnectivities of the three ‘wedding cake’ layers of ‘economy’, ‘society’ and ‘biosphere’, as posited by the Stockholm Resilience Centre. The key policy contribution is to quantify the resulting SDG synergies and trade-offs, whilst also decomposing and calculating the part-worth of the market drivers which contribute to these outcomes. The paper employs a global economic simulation model that combines rational market behaviour with environmental constraints (MAGNET) and is further extended with an SDG metrics module. A ‘non-sustainable’ world reveals trade-offs between economy and biosphere SDGs, with population growth of particular concern to a safe planetary operating space in the world's poorest regions. Sustainable visions could reduce natural resource pressures and emissions and meet energy requirements at potentially limited economic cost. Notwithstanding, these futures do not address income inequalities and potentially increase food security concerns for the most vulnerable members of society. Consequently, developed region led international cooperation and in-kind income transfers to developing countries, constitutes a necessary prerequisite to help remedy the SDG trade-offs exhibited within the more sustainable global pathways.
Modelling alternative futures of global food security: Insights from FOODSECURE
Meijl, Hans van; Shutes, Lindsay ; Valin, Hugo ; Stehfest, Elke ; Dijk, Michiel van; Kuiper, Marijke ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Havlik, Petr - \ 2020
Global Food Security 25 (2020). - ISSN 2211-9124
Environment - Food security - Integrated assessment - Long run - Scenario analysis
Global economic models have been increasingly used to project food and agricultural developments for long term-time horizons, but food security aspects have often been limited to food availability projections. In this paper, we propose a broader framework to explore the future of food and nutrition security with a focus on food availability, food access, and a reasonable proxy for food utilisation. This framework is applied to a new set of stakeholder-designed scenarios of alternative future worlds that were developed for the FOODSECURE project and are structured around the two dimensions of inequality and sustainability. The framework is tested with two global models, MAGNET-IMAGE and GLOBIOM, and illustrated through an assessment of the possible trade-offs between food and nutrition security and sustainability in each of the worlds. Our results indicate that more equal worlds improve food security over a wider range of food security indicators and neglecting the sustainability dimension might revert food security gains over time. This paper concludes that there is a need for model-based scenario analysis to assess the complex and multi-dimensional characteristics of global food security.
FOODSECURE Scenario Driver Database
Dijk, Michiel van; Gramberger, M. ; Laborde, D. ; Mandryk, Maryia ; Shutes, Lindsay ; Stehfest, Elke ; Valin, H. ; Zellmer, K. - \ 2019
Wageningen University & Research
food security - scenarios - drivers - population - yield - gdp - gross domestic product - storylines
The FOODSECURE Scenario Driver Database contains projections for key drivers that, in combination with storylines, describe four scenarios for the assessment of global food security. The database provides information for 19 regions that together have global coverage for the period 2010-2050.
Transition support system approach for urban food security in the future : The case of Ghana
Dijkshoorn-Dekker, Marijke ; Linderhof, Vincent ; Pinto, Vasco ; Hennen, Wil ; Oudendag, Diti ; Kuiper, Marijke ; Shutes, Lindsay - \ 2019
Wageningen : Wageningen Economic Research (Report / Wageningen Economic Research 2019-057a) - ISBN 9789463439602 - 43
The population of the world is becoming increasingly urbanised due to a combination of natural population growth and rural–urban migration. This will pose major challenges to feed the future population and meet the Sustainable Development Goals. Meeting these complex challenges requires an integrated approach. The transition support system (TSS) approach integrates decision support tools and stakeholder analyses for these complex issues. This study has focused attention on the application of decision support tools of the TSS approach that visualises the urgency of future food security as a proof of concept. To this end, the future food security of the city of Accra, the capital of Ghana, has been taken as a case study. The use of Global-Detector and its maps illustrated a quick way to downscale data and projections from MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) and perform spatial analyses without the burden of acquiring additional data. Downscaling of macroeconomic results of future projections provides insights into future urban food security. Giventhese insights, stakeholders might urge policy or interventions. The results of the exercise are largely determined by the availability of data and maps; in particular, the more detailed information is available, the more accurate the results of our exercise will be.
Resumé on performance of EU food systems towards European FNS and SDGs. Deliverable 2.3 : WP 2 Mapping of trends in food systems and related R&I policy frameworks
Cui, David ; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Shutes, L.J. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Latka, Catharina ; Havlík, Petr ; Frank, Stefan ; Leip, Adrian - \ 2019
Addressing trade-offs and synergies between SDGs: compare EU with Non-EU
Shutes, L.J. ; Achterbosch, T.J. ; Cui, David - \ 2018
- 2 p.
Assessing sustainable food and nutrition security of the EU food system - An integrated approach
Zurek, Monika ; Hebinck, Aniek ; Leip, Adrian ; Vervoort, Joost ; Kuiper, Marijke ; Garrone, Maria ; Havlík, Petr ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Hornborg, Sara ; Ingram, John ; Kuijsten, Anneleen ; Shutes, Lindsay ; Geleijnse, Johanna M. ; Terluin, Ida ; Veer, Pieter van 't; Wijnands, Jo ; Zimmermann, Andrea ; Achterbosch, Thom - \ 2018
Sustainability 10 (2018)11. - ISSN 2071-1050
Food system assessment - Food systems - Interdisciplinarity - Metrics - Participatory approach - SUSFANS - Sustainable food and nutrition security
Steering the EU food system towards a sustainability transformation requires a vast and actionable knowledge base available to a range of public and private actors. Few have captured this complexity by assessing food systems from a multi-dimensional and multi-level perspective, which would include (1) nutrition and diet, environmental and economic outcomes together with social equity dimensions and (2) system interactions across country, EU and global scales. This paper addresses this gap in food systems research and science communication by providing an integrated analytical approach and new ways to communicate this complexity outside science. Based on a transdisciplinary science approach with continuous stakeholder input, the EU Horizon2020 project 'Metrics, Models and Foresight for European SUStainable Food And Nutrition Security' (SUSFANS) developed a five-step process: Creating a participatory space; designing a conceptual framework of the EU food system; developing food system performance metrics; designing a modelling toolbox and developing a visualization tool. The Sustainable Food and Nutrition-Visualizer, designed to communicate complex policy change-impacts and trade-off questions, enables an informed debate about trade-offs associated with options for change among food system actors as well as in the policy making arena. The discussion highlights points for further research related to indicator development, reach of assessment models, participatory processes and obstacles in science communication.
Exploring the impact of alternative population projections on prices, growth and poverty developments
Kuiper, Marijke ; Shutes, Lindsay ; Verma, Monika ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van - \ 2018
Rome : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - ISBN 9789251300961 - 51
Deliverable 9.2: Enhanced modelling of sustainable food and nutrition security: food consumption and nutrition behaviour of European households
Kuiper, M.H. ; Oudendag, D.A. ; Bartelings, H. ; Shutes, L.J. ; Tabeau, A.A. - \ 2018
SUSFANS - 99 p.
Deliverable No. 1.3: Sustainability metrics for the EU food system: a review across economic, environmental and social considerations
Zurek, Monika ; Leip, Adrian ; Kuijsten, Anneleen ; Wijnands, Jo ; Terluin, Ida ; Shutes, Lindsay ; Hebinck, Aniek ; Zimmermann, Andrea ; Götz, Christian ; Hornborg, Sara ; Zanten, Hannah van; Ziegler, Friederike ; Havlik, Petr ; Garrone, Maria ; Geleijnse, Marianne ; Kuiper, Marijke ; Turrini, Aida ; Dofkova, Marcela ; Trolle, Ellen ; Mistura, Lorenza ; Dubuisson, Carine ; Veer, Pieter van 't; Achterbosch, Thom ; Ingram, John ; Brem-Wilson, Joshua ; Franklin, Alex ; Fried, Jana ; Guzman Rodriguez, Paola ; Owen, Luke ; Saxena, Lopa ; Trenchard, Liz ; Wright, Julia - \ 2017
SUSFANS - 78
One of the main objectives of the SUSFANS project is to develop a set of concepts and tools to help policy and decision makers across Europe make sense of the outcomes and trends of the EU food system. This paper proposes a set of metrics for assessing the performance of the EU food system in delivering sustainable food and nutrition security. The performance metrics have been built up through the aggregation of a wide range of variables, which together help to monitor the achievement of four overarching policy goals for the EU food system, namely a balanced diet for EU citizens, reduced environmental impacts, competitive agri-food businesses and equitable outcomes of the food system. The project decided to take a hierarchical approach to aggregating from Individual Variables to Derived Variables to Aggregate Indicators to Performance Metrics. This approach aims at marrying the notion that decision makers want only a small but powerful set of metrics to communicate the findings of the assessment, with the need to substantiate these metrics with the best available data from a large number of sources in a transparent way. In this deliverable the current set up of the performance metrics focus on each individual policy goal. In a related report, the team explores if and how the performance metrics presented here can be quantified using available data and modelling tools, and which of the models of the SUSFANS tool box can estimate which ones of the performance metrics and how (report D1.4). In a final step the SUSFANS team will bring all performance metrics together in an integrated set that will allow a view across all four policy goals and thus across all aspects of sustainable food and nutrition security (forthcoming report D1.5). Further work is the quantification of metrics using case studies and prospective scenario analysis. In addition to their use for monitoring, the proposed metrics are geared towards quantification using selected computational modelling tools. As such, SUSFANS aims to assist in foresight on and the evaluation of transformative changes in the food system with rigour and consistency.
|Changing Diets in a Changing World: The Impact of Urbanisation on Agriculture
Shutes, L.J. ; Verma, Monika ; Kuiper, M.H. - \ 2016
Two thirds of the world’s population is projected to live in urban areas by 2050; rising from 54% in 2014 (United Nations,2014). Coupled with economic growth, the trend for increasingly wealthy urban consumers is expected to have important implications for the pattern of food demand and consequently, agricultural production. Key differences in the diets of urban consumers relative to rural consumers imply that large-scale urbanisation will have significant impacts on the agricultural sector; through lower expenditures on staple goods and higher consumption of high value products. These consumption-side effects are coupled with production-side effects as people move from rural to urban areas impacting agricultural labour markets.
We analyse the impact of projected trends in urbanisation on agriculture in China, India and Ghana for the period 2010-2030 using the MAGNET model which includes a household module based on the MyGTAP model and a nutrition module that reports the macronutrients associated with consumption.
We examine the impact of urbanisation on agriculture by comparing a baseline scenario and a high urbanisation scenario. The baseline scenario follows SSP2 (“Middle of the Road”) in which urbanisation follows current trends and developing countries follow the experiences of more developed countries. The high urbanisation scenario follows higher rates of urbanisation taken from SSP 1.
The preliminary results indicate that higher incomes in urban areas boost demand for food in all categories, with the largest increases seen in the higher value products. The decline in incomes in the rural area lead to a reduction in consumption across all food products with the largest reduction in staples and fruit, vegetables and other crops. The shifts in consumption and changes in the supply of labour arising from urbanisation lead to a contraction in the agricultural sector.
FOODSECURE Final Conference
Shutes, Lindsay - \ 2016
Inequality & Inclusiveness in Long-Term Scenarios
|Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process, storylines and quantification of drivers
Dijk, M. van; Mandryk, M. ; Gramberger, M. ; Laborde, D. ; Shutes, L.J. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Valin, H. ; Zellmer, K. - \ 2016
LEI Wageningen UR (FOODSECURE Working paper 38) - 25 p.
RED versus REDD : Biofuel policy versus forest conservation
Dixon, Peter ; Meijl, Hans van; Rimmer, Maureen ; Shutes, Lindsay ; Tabeau, Andrzej - \ 2016
Economic Modelling 52 (2016)B. - ISSN 0264-9993 - p. 366 - 374.
Computable general equilibrium - Land use changes - Land-supply function - REDD - Renewable Energy Directives
We examine the interplay between Renewable Energy Directives (RED) and the United Nations Programme to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) using a scenario approach with a recursive-dynamic global computable general equilibrium model. A methodological issue addressed in the paper is the specification of the supply of agricultural land in the face of restrictions over its availability, as arises under REDD. By giving magnitudes to the effects of REDD and RED, our simulations provide a defense against environmental skeptics who, in the absence of such estimates, can dismiss these policies as being exorbitantly expensive. Although REDD and RED are in tension with respect to land use, the paper shows that they could be implemented simultaneously without significant global problems for food supply. The paper does however pinpoint some regional problems. Implementation of RED and REDD would cause large increases in food prices in Indonesia and Southern Africa. The methodology used in this paper, if implemented at a more detailed level, could be the basis of working out compensation packages that would be needed to make pervasive RED and REDD policies politically feasible.
|Exploring different food security futures, what might be in store for the poor?
Kuiper, M.H. ; Shutes, L.J. ; Dijk, M. van - \ 2015
SSP scenarios developed by the IPCC to explore different futures (Kriegler et al. 2012; O’Neill et al. 2012) are often used in explorative studies. These scenarios, however, are geared towards climate change analysis. Stakeholders participating in the FoodSecure project (www.foodsecure.eu) felt that these SSP scenarios do not adequately account for aspects relevant to food and nutrition security (van Dijk et al., 2014). To address these concerns four scenarios focussing on food security developments up to 2050 are developed in the FoodSecure project. These scenarios coincide with quantification of the SSP scenarios where possible, while diverging where needed to capture developments deemed critical for analysing food and nutrition security.
Changing diets in a changing world: assessing the impact of urbanisation on agriculture
Shutes, L.J. ; Kuiper, M.H. ; Verma, Monika - \ 2015
- 14 p.
|Effects of changing weather patterns on the trade of major food crops
Powell, J.P. ; Shutes, K. ; Tabeau, A.A. - \ 2014
Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development 10 (2014)1. - ISSN 1556-8520 - p. 1 - 29.
The paper examines the economic effects of expected changes in temperatures and precipitation on the trade of ten major food crops. The relative effects for developing versus developed countries are emphasized. A series of econometric models using panel data and autoregressive integrated moving average models are used to estimate and forecast relationships between yields and weather data, the results of which are used as input into MAGNET, a global computerized general equilibrium modeling framework. Econometric results show that average temperatures have increased across all areas growing major food crops. Results for precipitation are ambiguous, however, there is statistical evidence of two distinct periods, a first in which, on average, precipitation fell, followed by a second in which it increased. Results for crops with statistically significant estimates show that increasing temperatures have negatively affected yields.
These results hold for both poor and rich countries, however, the degree to which yields are reduced is crop specific and sensitive to a country’s level of wealth. MAGNET results show that changes in weather are likely to have significant effects on the production, trade, and, in some cases, the consumption of major food crops.
Evaluating the impact of policy on food and nutrition security outcomes at the household level
Shutes, L.J. ; Rutten, M.M. ; Achterbosch, T.J. - \ 2014
In: The food puzzle: pathways to securing food for all / Achterbosch, T.J., van Dorp, M., Driel, W.F., Groot, J.J., van der Lee, J., Verhagen, A., Bezlepkina, I., Wageningen : Wageningen UR - ISBN 9789462571921 - p. 41 - 43.
|An economic framework for assessing the impacts of biomass production on food security
Shutes, L.J. ; Smeets, E.M.W. - \ 2014
The Hague : LEI Wageningen UR - 23 p.
|Expanding the household coverage of global simulation models: an application to Ghana
Kuiper, M.H. ; Shutes, L.J. - \ 2014
The Hague : LEI Wageningen UR (FoodSecure Working Paper ) - 37 p.