Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation
    Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Havlík, Petr ; Valin, Hugo ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Kyle, Page ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Müller, Christoph ; Ochi, Yuki ; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio ; Stehfest, Elke ; Sulser, Timothy B. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Takakura, Junya ; Meijl, Hans van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Wiebe, Keith ; Witzke, Peter - \ 2020
    Nature Climate Change 10 (2020)5. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 420 - 421.
    Modelling alternative futures of global food security: Insights from FOODSECURE
    Meijl, Hans van; Shutes, Lindsay ; Valin, Hugo ; Stehfest, Elke ; Dijk, Michiel van; Kuiper, Marijke ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Havlik, Petr - \ 2020
    Global Food Security 25 (2020). - ISSN 2211-9124
    Environment - Food security - Integrated assessment - Long run - Scenario analysis

    Global economic models have been increasingly used to project food and agricultural developments for long term-time horizons, but food security aspects have often been limited to food availability projections. In this paper, we propose a broader framework to explore the future of food and nutrition security with a focus on food availability, food access, and a reasonable proxy for food utilisation. This framework is applied to a new set of stakeholder-designed scenarios of alternative future worlds that were developed for the FOODSECURE project and are structured around the two dimensions of inequality and sustainability. The framework is tested with two global models, MAGNET-IMAGE and GLOBIOM, and illustrated through an assessment of the possible trade-offs between food and nutrition security and sustainability in each of the worlds. Our results indicate that more equal worlds improve food security over a wider range of food security indicators and neglecting the sustainability dimension might revert food security gains over time. This paper concludes that there is a need for model-based scenario analysis to assess the complex and multi-dimensional characteristics of global food security.

    Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs
    Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Hof, Andries F. ; Braakhekke, Maarten C. ; Gernaat, David E.H.J. ; Berg, Maarten van den; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Meijl, Hans van; Lucas, Paul L. - \ 2020
    Global Change Biology 26 (2020)3. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 1576 - 1591.
    afforestation - climate change mitigation - food security - integrated assessment - land-based mitigation - negative emissions

    Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO2/year at 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO2 cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.

    Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4
    Schipper, Aafke M. ; Hilbers, Jelle P. ; Meijer, Johan R. ; Antão, Laura H. ; Benítez-López, Ana ; Jonge, Melinda M.J. de; Leemans, Luuk H. ; Scheper, Eddy ; Alkemade, Rob ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Mylius, Sido ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Huijbregts, Mark A.J. - \ 2020
    Global Change Biology 26 (2020)2. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 760 - 771.
    anthropocene - biodiversity scenarios - global environmental change - land-use downscaling - mean species abundance

    Scenario-based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio-economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc-seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area-weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (−0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil-fuelled development scenarios (−0.06 and −0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub-Saharan Africa. In some scenario-region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.

    Integrated scenarios to support analysis of the food–energy–water nexus
    Vuuren, Detlef P. Van; Bijl, David L. ; Bogaart, Patrick ; Stehfest, Elke ; Biemans, Hester ; Dekker, Stefan C. ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Gernaat, David E.H.J. ; Harmsen, Mathijs - \ 2019
    Nature Sustainability 2 (2019)12. - ISSN 2398-9629 - p. 1132 - 1141.

    The literature emphasizes the important relationships between the consumption and production of food, energy and water, and environmental challenges such as climate change and loss of biodiversity. New tools are needed to analyse the future dynamics of this nexus. Here, we introduce a set of model-based scenarios and associated Sankey diagrams that enable analysis of the relevant relationships and dynamics, as well as the options to formulate response strategies. The scenarios show that if no new policies are adopted, food production and energy generation could further increase by around 60%, and water consumption by around 20% over the period 2015–2050, leading to further degradation of resources and increasing environmental pressure. Response strategies in terms of climate policies, higher agricultural yields, dietary change and reduction of food waste are analysed to reveal how they may contribute to reversing these trends, and possibly even lead to a reduction of land use in the future.

    FOODSECURE Scenario Driver Database
    Dijk, Michiel van; Gramberger, M. ; Laborde, D. ; Mandryk, Maryia ; Shutes, Lindsay ; Stehfest, Elke ; Valin, H. ; Zellmer, K. - \ 2019
    Wageningen University & Research
    food security - scenarios - drivers - population - yield - gdp - gross domestic product - storylines
    The FOODSECURE Scenario Driver Database contains projections for key drivers that, in combination with storylines, describe four scenarios for the assessment of global food security. The database provides information for 19 regions that together have global coverage for the period 2010-2050.
    Modeling forest plantations for carbon uptake with the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model
    Braakhekke, Maarten C. ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Baas, Peter ; Müller, Christoph ; Schaphoff, Sibyll ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. Van - \ 2019
    Earth System dynamics 10 (2019)4. - ISSN 2190-4979 - p. 617 - 630.

    We present an extension of the dynamic global vegetation model, Lund-Potsdam-Jena Managed Land (LPJmL), to simulate planted forests intended for carbon (C) sequestration. We implemented three functional types to simulate plantation trees in temperate, tropical, and boreal climates. The parameters of these functional types were optimized to fit target growth curves (TGCs). These curves represent the evolution of stemwood C over time in typical productive plantations and were derived by combining field observations and LPJmL estimates for equivalent natural forests. While the calibrated model underestimates stemwood C growth rates compared to the TGCs, it represents substantial improvement over using natural forests to represent afforestation. Based on a simulation experiment in which we compared global natural forest versus global forest plantation, we found that forest plantations allow for much larger C uptake rates on the timescale of 100 years, with a maximum difference of a factor of 1.9, around 54 years. In subsequent simulations for an ambitious but realistic scenario in which 650Mha (14% of global managed land, 4.5% of global land surface) are converted to forest over 85 years, we found that natural forests take up 37PgC versus 48PgC for forest plantations. Comparing these results to estimations of C sequestration required to achieve the 2°C climate target, we conclude that afforestation can offer a substantial contribution to climate mitigation. Full evaluation of afforestation as a climate change mitigation strategy requires an integrated assessment which considers all relevant aspects, including costs, biodiversity, and trade-offs with other land-use types. Our extended version of LPJmL can contribute to such an assessment by providing improved estimates of C uptake rates by forest plantations.

    Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world
    Roe, Stephanie ; Streck, Charlotte ; Obersteiner, Michael ; Frank, Stefan ; Griscom, Bronson ; Drouet, Laurent ; Fricko, Oliver ; Gusti, Mykola ; Harris, Nancy ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Hausfather, Zeke ; Havlík, Petr ; House, Jo ; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan ; Popp, Alexander ; Sánchez, María José Sanz ; Sanderman, Jonathan ; Smith, Pete ; Stehfest, Elke ; Lawrence, Deborah - \ 2019
    Nature Climate Change 9 (2019). - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 817 - 828.
    The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here we combine a review of modelled pathways and literature on mitigation strategies, and develop a land-sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector and deploying measures in agriculture, forestry, wetlands and bioenergy could feasibly and sustainably contribute about 30%, or 15 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) per year, of the global mitigation needed in 2050 to deliver on the 1.5 °C target, but it will require substantially more effort than the 2 °C target. Risks and barriers must be addressed and incentives will be necessary to scale up mitigation while maximizing sustainable development, food security and environmental co-benefits.
    Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target
    Frank, Stefan ; Havlík, Petr ; Stehfest, Elke ; Meijl, Hans van; Witzke, Peter ; Pérez-Domínguez, Ignacio ; Dijk, Michiel van; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Valin, Hugo - \ 2019
    Nature Climate Change 9 (2019)1. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 66 - 72.

    Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10–12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 °C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 °C target and decompose the mitigation potential by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism. The results show that the livestock sector will be vital to achieve emission reductions consistent with the 1.5 °C target mainly through emission-reducing technologies or structural changes. Agriculture may contribute emission reductions of 0.8–1.4 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) yr−1 at just US$20 per tCO2e in 2050. Combined with dietary changes, emission reductions can be increased to 1.7–1.8 GtCO2e yr−1. At carbon prices compatible with the 1.5 °C target, agriculture could even provide average emission savings of 3.9 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2050, which represents around 8% of current GHG emissions.

    The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
    Fitton, N. ; Alexander, P. ; Arnell, N. ; Bajzelj, B. ; Calvin, K. ; Doelman, J. ; Gerber, J.S. ; Havlik, P. ; Hasegawa, T. ; Herrero, M. ; Krisztin, T. ; Meijl, H. van; Powell, T. ; Sands, R. ; Stehfest, E. ; West, P.C. ; Smith, P. - \ 2019
    Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 58 (2019). - ISSN 0959-3780
    Food security - Land use - Shared socio-economic pathways - Water availability

    Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

    Key determinants of global land-use projections
    Stehfest, Elke ; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Valin, Hugo ; Havlik, Petr ; Popp, Alexander ; Kyle, Page ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Bodirsky, Benjamin L. ; Calvin, Katherine ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Meijl, Hans van; Wiebe, Keith - \ 2019
    Nature Communications 10 (2019). - ISSN 2041-1723 - 10 p.

    Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

    Making the Paris agreement climate targets consistent with food security objectives
    Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van - \ 2019
    Global Food Security 23 (2019). - ISSN 2211-9124 - p. 93 - 103.
    Agricultural intensification - Climate change - Diet change - Food security - Land-based mitigation

    Climate change mitigation is crucial to limit detrimental impacts of climate change on food production. However, cost-optimal mitigation pathways consistent with the Paris agreement project large-scale land-based mitigation for bio-energy and afforestation to achieve stringent climate targets. Land demand from land-based mitigation leads to competition with food production, raising concerns that climate policy (SDG13 – climate action) conflicts with food security objectives (SDG2 – zero hunger). In this study we use the computable general equilibrium model MAGNET and the IMAGE integrated assessment model to quantify the food security effects of large-scale land-based mitigation. Subsequently, we implement two measures to prevent reduced food security: increased agricultural intensification and reduced meat consumption. We show that large-scale land-based mitigation (∼600 Mha in 2050) leads to increased food prices (11%), reduced food availability (230 kcal/cap/day) and substantially more people at risk of hunger (230 million) compared to the baseline scenario in 2050, most notably in developing regions. Land-based mitigation also leads to yield increases (9%) and intensified ruminant production (11%). Additional crop yield improvement (9%) and intensification in ruminant production (3%) could prevent the negative effect of mitigation on food security. Introducing a reduction in meat consumption in high- and middle-income regions reduces required crop yield improvement (7%) and ruminant intensification (2%). Our study highlights the importance of transparency about food security effects in climate change mitigation scenarios. In addition, it provides an example of explicitly including measures to limit negative trade-offs in mitigation scenarios. In this way, we show how the Paris agreement can be made consistent with food security objectives and how multiple Sustainable Development Goals can be achieved.

    Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
    Lassaletta, Luis ; Estellés, Fernando ; Beusen, Arthur H.W. ; Bouwman, Lex ; Calvet, Salvador ; Grinsven, Hans J.M. Van; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Uwizeye, Aimable ; Westhoek, Henk - \ 2019
    Science of the Total Environment 665 (2019). - ISSN 0048-9697 - p. 739 - 751.
    Global pork production has increased fourfold over the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing during the next three decades. This may have considerable implications for feed use, land requirements, and nitrogen
    emissions. To analyze the development of the pig production sector at the scale of world regions, we developed the IMAGE-Pig model to describe changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen excretion for backyard, intermediate and intensive systems during the past fewdecades as a basis to explore future scenarios. For each region and production system, total production, productive characteristics and dietary compositions were defined for the 1970–2005 period. The results showthat due to the growing pork production total feed demand has increased by a factor of two (from 229 to 471Tg DM). This is despite the improvement of FCRs during the 1970–2005 period, which has reduced the feed use per kg of product. The increase of nitrogen use efficiency was slower than the improvement of FCRs due to increasing protein content in the feed rations. As a result, total N excretion increased bymore than a factor of two in the 1970–2005 period
    (from 4.6 to 11.1 Tg N/year). For the period up to 2050, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) provide information on levels of human consumption, technical development and environmental awareness. The sustainability of pig production systems for the coming decades will be based not only on the expected efficiency
    LPJmL4 Model Code
    Schaphoff, Sibyll ; Bloh, Werner von; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Biemans, H. ; Forkel, Matthias ; Gerten, Dieter ; Heinke, Jens ; Jägermeyr, Jonas ; Müller, Christoph ; Rolinski, Susanne ; Waha, Katharina ; Stehfest, Elke ; Waal, Liesbeth de; Heyder, Ursula ; Gumpenberger, Marlies ; Beringer, Tim - \ 2018
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
    soil carbon - vegetation carbon - global carbon balance - permafrost distribution - discharge - fractional burned area - crop yields - global dynamic vegetation model - vegetation dynamics
    LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land-use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, the water and carbon cycle and on agricultural production. The LPJmL4 model combines plant physiological relations, generalized empirically established functions and plant trait parameters. The model incorporates dynamic land use at the global scale and is also able to simulate the production of woody and herbaceous short-rotation bio-energy plantations. Grid cells may contain one or several types of natural or agricultural vegetation.
    A Global Analysis of Future Water Deficit Based On Different Allocation Mechanisms
    Bijl, David L. ; Biemans, Hester ; Bogaart, Patrick W. ; Dekker, Stefan C. ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2018
    Water Resources Research 54 (2018)8. - ISSN 0043-1397 - p. 5803 - 5824.
    integrated assessment model - irrigation - socioeconomic development - water demand - water scarcity - water-food-energy nexus

    Freshwater scarcity is already an urgent problem in some areas but may increase significantly in the future. To assess future developments, we need to understand how future population growth, agricultural production patterns, energy use, economic development, and climate change may impact the global freshwater cycle. Integrated models provide opportunities for quantitative assessment. In this paper, we further integrate models of hydrology and economics, using the models IMAGE and LPJmL, with explicit accounting for (1) electricity, industry, and municipal and irrigation water use; (2) intersectoral water allocation rules at the 0.5° × 0.5°grid scale; and (3) withdrawal, consumption, and return flows. With the integration between hydrology and economy we are able to understand competition dynamics between the different freshwater users at the basin and grid scale. We run model projections for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), more efficient water use, and no expansion of irrigated areas to understand the competition dynamics of these different allocation mechanisms. We conclude that (1) global water withdrawal is projected to increase by 12% in SSP-1, 26% in SSP-2, and 29% in SSP-3 during 2010–2050; (2) water deficits (demand minus allocated water) for nonagricultural uses are small in 2010 but become significant around 2050; (3) interannual variability of precipitation results in variability of water deficits; (4) water use efficiency improvements reduce water withdrawal but have little impact on water deficits; and (5) priority rules at the local level have a large effect on water deficits, whereas limiting the expansion of irrigation has virtually no effect.

    Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy
    Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Havlík, Petr ; Valin, Hugo ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Kyle, Page ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Ochi, Yuki ; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio ; Stehfest, Elke ; Sulser, Timothy B. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Takakura, J. ; Meijl, Hans van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Wiebe, Keith ; Witzke, Peter - \ 2018
    Nature Climate Change 8 (2018)8. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 699 - 703.

    Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop-production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions1–3. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities4–6. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and the population at risk of hunger. A robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change. The negative impacts would be most prevalent in vulnerable, low-income regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where food security problems are already acute.

    Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
    Meijl, Hans van; Havlik, Petr ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Stehfest, Elke ; Witzke, Peter ; Domínguez, Ignacio P. ; Bodirsky, Benjamin L. ; Dijk, Michiel van; Doelman, Jonathan ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Müller, Christoph ; Popp, Alexander ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Valin, Hugo ; Zeist, Willem J. van - \ 2018
    Environmental Research Letters 13 (2018)6. - ISSN 1748-9318
    adaptation - agriculture - climate change - economic models - mitigation - shared socioeconomic pathways

    Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

    Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model : Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation
    Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van; Lassaletta, Luis ; Gernaat, David E.H.J. ; Neumann-Hermans, Kathleen ; Harmsen, Mathijs ; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Biemans, Hester ; Sluis, Sietske van der; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2018
    Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 48 (2018). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 119 - 135.
    Bioenergy - Climate change mitigation - Integrated assessment - Land-use change - REDD - Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)
    Projected increases in population, income and consumption rates are expected to lead to rising pressure on the land system. Ambitions to limit global warming to 2 °C or even 1.5 °C could also lead to additional pressures from land-based mitigation measures such as bioenergy production and afforestation. To investigate these dynamics, this paper describes five elaborations of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework to produce regional and gridded scenarios up to the year 2100. Additionally, land-based climate change mitigation is modelled aiming for long-term mitigation targets including 1.5 °C. Results show diverging global trends in agricultural land in the baseline scenarios ranging from an expansion of nearly 826 Mha in SSP3 to a decrease of more than 305 Mha in SSP1 for the period 2010–2050. Key drivers are population growth, changes in food consumption, and agricultural efficiency. The largest changes take place in Sub-Saharan Africa in SSP3 and SSP4, predominantly due to high population growth. With low increases in agricultural efficiency this leads to expansion of agricultural land and reduced food security. Land use also plays a crucial role in ambitious mitigation scenarios. First, agricultural emissions could form a substantial component of emissions that cannot be fully mitigated. Second, bioenergy and reforestation are crucial to create net negative emissions reducing emissions in SSP2 in 2050 by 8.7 Gt CO2/yr and 1.9 Gt CO2/yr, respectively (1.5 °C scenario compared to baseline). This is achieved by expansion of bioenergy area (516 Mha in 2050) and reforestation. Expansion of agriculture for food production is reduced due to REDD policy (290 Mha in 2050) affecting food security especially in Sub-Saharan Africa indicating an important trade-off of land-based mitigation. This set of SSP land-use scenarios provides a comprehensive quantification of interacting trends in the land system, both socio-economic and biophysical. By providing high resolution data, the scenario output can improve interactions between climate research and impact studies.
    Managing LUC‐induced GHG emissions and price impacts from bioenergy under different scenarios
    Levin-Koopman, Jason ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Smeets, E.M.W. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Faaij, A. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Gerssen-Gondelach, S. ; Wicke, Birka - \ 2017
    EU
    Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 : AgCLIM50
    Meijl, J.C.M. van; Havlík, Petr ; Lotze-Campen, H. ; Stehfest, E. ; Witzke, P. ; Pérez Domínguez, I. ; Bodirsky, B. ; Dijk, M. van; Doelman, J.C. ; Fellmann, T. ; Humpenoeder, F. ; Levin-Koopman, Jason ; Mueller, C. ; Popp, A. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Valin, Hugo - \ 2017
    JRC (JRC science for policy report ) - 70 p.
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