Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Modelling carbon stock and carbon sequestration ecosystem services for policy design: a comprehensive approach using a dynamic vegetation model
Quijas, Sandra ; Boit, Alice ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillerma ; Mwampamba, Tuyeni ; Skutsch, Margaret ; Simões, Margareth ; Ascarrunz, Nataly ; Pena Claros, M. ; Jones, Laurence ; Arets, E.J.M.M. ; Jaramillo, Victor J. ; Lazos, Elena ; Toledo, Marisol ; Martorano, Lucieta G. ; Ferraz, Rodrigo ; Balvanera, Patricia - \ 2019
Ecosystems and People 15 (2019)1. - ISSN 2639-5916 - p. 42 - 60.
Ecosystem service (ES) models can only inform policy design adequately if they incorporate ecological processes. We used the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) model, to address following questions for Mexico, Bolivia and Brazilian Amazon: (i) How different are C stocks and C sequestration quantifications under standard (when soil and litter C and heterotrophic respiration are not considered) and comprehensive (including all C stock and heterotrophic respiration) approach? and (ii) How does the valuation of C stock and C sequestration differ in national payments for ES and global C funds or markets when comparing both approach? We found that up to 65% of C stocks have not been taken into account by neglecting to include C stored in soil and litter, resulting in gross underpayments (up to 500 times lower). Since emissions from heterotrophic respiration of organic material offset a large proportion of C gained through growth of living matter, we found that markets and decision-makers are inadvertently overestimating up to 100 times C sequestrated. New approaches for modelling C services relevant ecological process-based can help accounting for C in soil, litter and heterotrophic respiration and become important for the operationalization of agreements on climate change mitigation following the COP21 in 2015.
A generic pixel-to-point comparison for simulated large-scale ecosystem properties and ground-based observations : An example from the Amazon region
Rammig, Anja ; Heinke, Jens ; Hofhansl, Florian ; Verbeeck, Hans ; Baker, Timothy R. ; Christoffersen, Bradley ; Ciais, Philippe ; Deurwaerder, Hannes De; Fleischer, Katrin ; Galbraith, David ; Guimberteau, Matthieu ; Huth, Andreas ; Johnson, Michelle ; Krujit, Bart ; Langerwisch, Fanny ; Meir, Patrick ; Papastefanou, Phillip ; Sampaio, Gilvan ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Randow, Celso von; Zang, Christian ; Rödig, Edna - \ 2018
Geoscientific Model Development 11 (2018)12. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 5203 - 5215.

Comparing model output and observed data is an important step for assessing model performance and quality of simulation results. However, such comparisons are often hampered by differences in spatial scales between local point observations and large-scale simulations of grid cells or pixels. In this study, we propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison and provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty resulting from landscape variability and measurement errors in ecosystem variables. The basic concept of our approach is to determine the statistical properties of small-scale (within-pixel) variability and observational errors, and to use this information to correct for their effect when large-scale area averages (pixel) are compared to small-scale point estimates. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity (woody net primary productivity, NPP) and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest, a region with the typical problem of low data availability, potential scale mismatch and thus high model uncertainty. We find that the DGVMs under- and overestimate aboveground biomass by 25% and up to 60%, respectively. Our comparison metrics provide a quantitative measure for model-data agreement and show moderate to good agreement with the region-wide spatial biomass pattern detected by plot observations. However, all four DGVMs overestimate woody productivity and underestimate residence time of woody biomass even when accounting for the large uncertainty range of the observational data. This is because DGVMs do not represent the relation between productivity and residence time of woody biomass correctly. Thus, the DGVMs may simulate the correct large-scale patterns of biomass but for the wrong reasons. We conclude that more information about the underlying processes driving biomass distribution are necessary to improve DGVMs. Our approach provides robust statistical measures for any pixel-to-point comparison, which is applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products.

LPJmL4 model output for the publications in GMD: LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land: Part I – Model description and Part II – Model evaluation
Schaphoff, Sibyll ; Bloh, Werner von; Rammig, Anja ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Biemans, H. ; Forkel, Matthias ; Gerten, Dieter ; Heinke, Jens ; Jägermeyr, Jonas ; Knauer, Jürgen ; Langerwisch, Fanny ; Lucht, Wolfgang ; Müller, Christoph ; Rolinski, Susanne ; Waha, Katharina - \ 2018
soil carbon - vegetation carbon - global carbon balance - permafrost distribution - discharge - fractional burned area - crop yields - global dynamic vegetation model - vegetation dynamics
LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land-use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, the water and carbon cycle and on agricultural production. The LPJmL4 model combines plant physiological relations, generalized empirically established functions and plant trait parameters. The model incorporates dynamic land use at the global scale and is also able to simulate the production of woody and herbaceous short-rotation bio-energy plantations. Grid cells may contain one or several types of natural or agricultural vegetation. A comprehensive description of the model is given by Schaphoff et al. (2017a, http://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-145). The data presented here represent some standard LPJmL4 model results for the land surface described in Schaphoff et al. (2017a,). Additionally, these results are evaluated in the companion paper of Schaphoff et al. (2017b, http://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-146). The data collection includes some key output variables made with different model setups described by Schaphoff et al. (2017b). The data cover the entire globe with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and temporal coverage from 1901-2011 on an annual basis for soil, vegetation, aboveground and litter carbon as well as for vegetation distribution, crop yields, sowing dates, maximum thawing depth, and fire carbon emissions. Vegetation distribution is given for each plant functional type (PFT), crop yields, and sowing dates are given for each crop functional type (CFT), respectively. Monthly data are provided for the carbon fluxes (net primary production, gross primary production, soil respiration) and the water fluxes (transpiration, evaporation, interception, runoff, and discharge) and for absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) and albedo.
LPJmL4 Model Code
Schaphoff, Sibyll ; Bloh, Werner von; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Biemans, H. ; Forkel, Matthias ; Gerten, Dieter ; Heinke, Jens ; Jägermeyr, Jonas ; Müller, Christoph ; Rolinski, Susanne ; Waha, Katharina ; Stehfest, Elke ; Waal, Liesbeth de; Heyder, Ursula ; Gumpenberger, Marlies ; Beringer, Tim - \ 2018
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
soil carbon - vegetation carbon - global carbon balance - permafrost distribution - discharge - fractional burned area - crop yields - global dynamic vegetation model - vegetation dynamics
LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land-use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, the water and carbon cycle and on agricultural production. The LPJmL4 model combines plant physiological relations, generalized empirically established functions and plant trait parameters. The model incorporates dynamic land use at the global scale and is also able to simulate the production of woody and herbaceous short-rotation bio-energy plantations. Grid cells may contain one or several types of natural or agricultural vegetation.
Data from: Biodiversity in species, traits and structure determines carbon stocks and uptake in tropical forests
Sande, M.T. van der; Poorter, L. ; Kooistra, L. ; Balvanera, Patricia ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Thompson, Jill ; Arets, E.J.M.M. ; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli ; Jones, L. ; Mora, Francisco ; Mwampamba, T.H. ; Parr, T. ; Pena Claros, M. - \ 2018
biodiversity-ecosystem functioning - biomass dynamics - biomass growth - climate change mitigation - functional traits - species diversity - tropical forest
Impacts of climate change require that society urgently develops ways to reduce amounts of carbon in the atmosphere. Tropical forests present an important opportunity, as they take up and store large amounts of carbon. It is often suggested that forests with high biodiversity have large stocks and high rates of carbon uptake. Evidence is, however, scattered across geographic areas and scales, and it remains unclear whether biodiversity is just a co‐benefit or also a requirement for the maintenance of carbon stocks and uptake. Here, we perform a quantitative review of empirical studies that analyzed the relationships between plant biodiversity attributes and carbon stocks and carbon uptake in tropical forests. Our results show that biodiversity attributes related to species, traits or structure significantly affect carbon stocks or uptake in 64% of the evaluated relationships. Average vegetation attributes (community‐mean traits and structural attributes) are more important for carbon stocks, whereas variability in vegetation attributes (i.e., taxonomic diversity) is important for both carbon stocks and uptake. Thus, different attributes of biodiversity have complementary effects on carbon stocks and uptake. These biodiversity effects tend to be more often significant in mature forests at broad spatial scales than in disturbed forests at local spatial scales. Biodiversity effects are also more often significant when confounding variables are not included in the analyses, highlighting the importance of performing a comprehensive analysis that adequately accounts for environmental drivers. In summary, biodiversity is not only a co‐benefit, but also a requirement for short‐ and long‐term maintenance of carbon stocks and enhancement of uptake. Climate change policies should therefore include the maintenance of multiple attributes of biodiversity as an essential requirement to achieve long‐term climate change mitigation goals.
LPJmL4 - A dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 1 : Model description
Schaphoff, Sibyll ; Bloh, Werner von; Rammig, Anja ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Biemans, Hester ; Forkel, Matthias ; Gerten, Dieter ; Heinke, Jens ; Jägermeyr, Jonas ; Knauer, Jürgen ; Langerwisch, Fanny ; Lucht, Wolfgang ; Müller, Christoph ; Rolinski, Susanne ; Waha, Katharina - \ 2018
Geoscientific Model Development 11 (2018)4. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 1343 - 1375.
This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.
Modeling vegetation and carbon dynamics of managed grasslands at the global scale with LPJmL 3.6
Rolinski, Susanne ; Müller, Christoph ; Heinke, Jens ; Weindl, Isabelle ; Biewald, Anne ; Leon Bodirsky, Benjamin ; Bondeau, Alberte ; Boons-Prins, Eltje R. ; Bouwman, Alexander F. ; Leffelaar, Peter A. ; Roller, Johnny A. te; Schaphoff, Sibyll ; Thonicke, Kirsten - \ 2018
Geoscientific Model Development 11 (2018)1. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 429 - 451.
Grassland management affects the carbon fluxes of one-third of the global land area and is thus an important factor for the global carbon budget. Nonetheless, this aspect has been largely neglected or underrepresented in global carbon cycle models. We investigate four harvesting schemes for the managed grassland implementation of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) that facilitate a better representation of actual management systems globally. We describe the model implementation and analyze simulation results with respect to harvest, net primary productivity and soil carbon content and by evaluating them against reported grass yields in Europe.We demonstrate the importance of accounting for differences in grassland management by assessing potential livestock grazing densities as well as the impacts of grazing, grazing intensities and mowing systems on soil carbon stocks. Grazing leads to soil carbon losses in polar or arid regions even at moderate livestock densities ( < 0.4 livestock units per hectare-LSUha -1 ) but not in temperate regions even at much higher densities (0.4 to 1.2 LSUha -1 ). Applying LPJmL with the new grassland management options enables assessments of the global grassland production and its impact on the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles but requires a global data set on current grassland management.
Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
Frieler, Katja ; Lange, Stefan ; Piontek, Franziska ; Reyer, Christopher P.O. ; Schewe, Jacob ; Warszawski, Lila ; Zhao, Fang ; Chini, Louise ; Denvil, Sebastien ; Emanuel, Kerry ; Geiger, Tobias ; Halladay, Kate ; Hurtt, George ; Mengel, Matthias ; Murakami, Daisgbre ; Ostberg, Sebastian ; Popp, Alexander ; Riva, Riccardo ; Stevanovic, Miodrag ; SuzGBRi, Tatsuo ; Volkholz, Jan ; Burke, Eleanor ; Ciais, Philippe ; Ebi, Kristie ; Eddy, Tyler D. ; Elliott, Joshua ; Galbraith, Eric ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Hattermann, Fred ; Hickler, Thomas ; Hinkel, Jochen ; Hof, Christian ; Huber, Veronika ; Jägermeyr, Jonas ; Krysanova, Valentina ; Marcé, Rafael ; Müller Schmied, Hannes ; Mouratiadou, Ioanna ; Pierson, Don ; Tittensor, Derek P. ; Vautard, Robert ; Vliet, Michelle Van; Biber, Matthias F. ; Betts, Richard A. ; Leon Bodirsky, Benjamin ; Deryng, Delphine ; Frolking, Steve ; Jones, Chris D. ; Lotze, Heike K. ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Sahajpal, Ritvik ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Tian, Hanqin ; Yamagata, Yoshiki - \ 2017
Geoscientific Model Development 10 (2017)12. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 4321 - 4345.
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5ĝ€°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5ĝ€°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
Biodiversity in species, traits, and structure determines carbon stocks and uptake in tropical forests
Sande, Masha van der; Poorter, L. ; Kooistra, L. ; Balvanera, Patricia ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Thompson, Jill ; Arets, E.J.M.M. ; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli ; Jones, L. ; Mora, Francisco ; Mwampamba, T.H. ; Parr, T. ; Pena Claros, M. - \ 2017
Biotropica 49 (2017)5. - ISSN 0006-3606 - p. 593 - 603.
Impacts of climate change require that society urgently develops ways to reduce amounts of carbon in the atmosphere. Tropical forests present an important opportunity, as they take up and store large amounts of carbon. It is often suggested that forests with high biodiversity have large stocks and high rates of carbon uptake. Evidence is, however, scattered across geographic areas and scales, and it remains unclear whether biodiversity is just a co‐benefit or also a requirement for the maintenance of carbon stocks and uptake. Here, we perform a quantitative review of empirical studies that analyzed the relationships between plant biodiversity attributes and carbon stocks and carbon uptake in tropical forests. Our results show that biodiversity attributes related to species, traits or structure significantly affect carbon stocks or uptake in 64% of the evaluated relationships. Average vegetation attributes (community‐mean traits and structural attributes) are more important for carbon stocks, whereas variability in vegetation attributes (i.e., taxonomic diversity) is important for both carbon stocks and uptake. Thus, different attributes of biodiversity have complementary effects on carbon stocks and uptake. These biodiversity effects tend to be more often significant in mature forests at broad spatial scales than in disturbed forests at local spatial scales. Biodiversity effects are also more often significant when confounding variables are not included in the analyses, highlighting the importance of performing a comprehensive analysis that adequately accounts for environmental drivers. In summary, biodiversity is not only a co‐benefit, but also a requirement for short‐ and long‐term maintenance of carbon stocks and enhancement of uptake. Climate change policies should therefore include the maintenance of multiple attributes of biodiversity as an essential requirement to achieve long‐term climate change mitigation goals.
Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin : A multi-model analysis with a new set of land-cover change scenarios
Guimberteau, Matthieu ; Ciais, Philippe ; Pablo Boisier, Juan ; Paula Dutra Aguiar, Ana ; Biemans, Hester ; Deurwaerder, Hannes De; Galbraith, David ; Kruijt, Bart ; Langerwisch, Fanny ; Poveda, German ; Rammig, Anja ; Andres Rodriguez, Daniel ; Tejada, Graciela ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Randow, Celso Von; Randow, Rita ; Zhang, Ke ; Verbeeck, Hans - \ 2017
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 (2017)3. - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 1455 - 1475.
Deforestation in Amazon is expected to decrease evapotranspiration (ET) and to increase soil moisture and river discharge under prevailing energy-limited conditions. The magnitude and sign of the response of ET to deforestation depend both on the magnitude and regional patterns of land-cover change (LCC), as well as on climate change and CO2 levels. On the one hand, elevated CO2 decreases leaf-scale transpiration, but this effect could be offset by increased foliar area density. Using three regional LCC scenarios specifically established for the Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon, we investigate the impacts of climate change and deforestation on the surface hydrology of the Amazon Basin for this century, taking 2009 as a reference. For each LCC scenario, three land surface models (LSMs), LPJmL-DGVM, INLAND-DGVM and ORCHIDEE, are forced by bias-corrected climate simulated by three general circulation models (GCMs) of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4). On average, over the Amazon Basin with no deforestation, the GCM results indicate a temperature increase of 3.3ĝ€°C by 2100 which drives up the evaporative demand, whereby precipitation increases by 8.5 %, with a large uncertainty across GCMs. In the case of no deforestation, we found that ET and runoff increase by 5.0 and 14ĝ€%, respectively. However, in south-east Amazonia, precipitation decreases by 10ĝ€% at the end of the dry season and the three LSMs produce a 6ĝ€% decrease of ET, which is less than precipitation, so that runoff decreases by 22 %. For instance, the minimum river discharge of the Rio Tapajós is reduced by 31ĝ€% in 2100. To study the additional effect of deforestation, we prescribed to the LSMs three contrasted LCC scenarios, with a forest decline going from 7 to 34ĝ€% over this century. All three scenarios partly offset the climate-induced increase of ET, and runoff increases over the entire Amazon. In the south-east, however, deforestation amplifies the decrease of ET at the end of dry season, leading to a large increase of runoff (up to +27ĝ€% in the extreme deforestation case), offsetting the negative effect of climate change, thus balancing the decrease of low flows in the Rio Tapajós. These projections are associated with large uncertainties, which we attribute separately to the differences in LSMs, GCMs and to the uncertain range of deforestation. At the subcatchment scale, the uncertainty range on ET changes is shown to first depend on GCMs, while the uncertainty of runoff projections is predominantly induced by LSM structural differences. By contrast, we found that the uncertainty in both ET and runoff changes attributable to uncertain future deforestation is low.
The integration of empirical, remote sensing and modelling approaches enhances insight in the role of biodiversity in climate change mitigation by tropical forests
Sande, Masha T. van der; Poorter, Lourens ; Balvanera, Patricia ; Kooistra, Lammert ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Boit, Alice ; Dutrieux, Loic ; Equihua, Julian ; Gerard, France ; Herold, Martin ; Kolb, Melanie ; Simões, Margareth ; Peña-Claros, Marielos - \ 2017
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 26-27 (2017). - ISSN 1877-3435 - p. 69 - 76.
Tropical forests store and sequester high amounts of carbon and are the most diverse terrestrial ecosystem. A complete understanding of the relationship between biodiversity and carbon storage and sequestration across spatiotemporal scales relevant for climate change mitigation needs three approaches: empirical, remote sensing and ecosystem modelling. We review individual approaches and show that biodiversity has short-term and long-term benefits across spatial scales. We argue that enhanced understanding is obtained by combining approaches and, especially, integrating approaches through using ‘boundary objects’ that can be understood and measured by all approaches, such as diversity of leaf traits of the upper canopy. This will lead to better understanding of biodiversity effects on climate change mitigation, which is crucial for making sound policy decisions.
Resilience of Amazon forests emerges from plant trait diversity
Sakschewski, Boris ; Bloh, Werner Von; Boit, Alice ; Poorter, Lourens ; Peña-Claros, Marielos ; Heinke, Jens ; Joshi, Jasmin ; Thonicke, Kirsten - \ 2016
Nature Climate Change 6 (2016)11. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 1032 - 1036.

Climate change threatens ecosystems worldwide, yet their potential future resilience remains largely unquantified. In recent years many studies have shown that biodiversity, and in particular functional diversity, can enhance ecosystem resilience by providing a higher response diversity. So far these insights have been mostly neglected in large-scale projections of ecosystem responses to climate change. Here we show that plant trait diversity, as a key component of functional diversity, can have a strikingly positive effect on the Amazon forests' biomass under future climate change. Using a terrestrial biogeochemical model that simulates diverse forest communities on the basis of individual tree growth, we show that plant trait diversity may enable the Amazon forests to adjust to new climate conditions via a process of ecological sorting, protecting the Amazon's carbon sink function. Therefore, plant trait diversity, and biodiversity in general, should be considered in large-scale ecosystem projections and be included as an integral part of climate change research and policy.

Variation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of above-ground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models
Johnson, Michelle O. ; Galbraith, David ; Gloor, Manuel ; Deurwaerder, Hannes De; Guimberteau, Matthieu ; Rammig, Anja ; Thonicke, Kirsten ; Verbeeck, Hans ; Randow, Celso Von; Monteagudo, Abel ; Phillips, Oliver L. ; Brienen, Roel J.W. ; Feldpausch, Ted R. ; Lopez Gonzalez, Gabriela ; Fauset, Sophie ; Quesada, Carlos A. ; Christoffersen, Bradley ; Ciais, Philippe ; Sampaio, Gilvan ; Kruijt, Bart ; Meir, Patrick ; Moorcroft, Paul ; Zhang, Ke ; Alvarez-Davila, Esteban ; Alves De Oliveira, Atila ; Amaral, Ieda ; Andrade, Ana ; Aragao, Luiz E.O.C. ; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro ; Arets, Eric J.M.M. ; Arroyo, Luzmila ; Aymard, Gerardo A. ; Baraloto, Christopher ; Barroso, Jocely ; Bonal, Damien ; Boot, Rene ; Camargo, Jose ; Chave, Jerome ; Cogollo, Alvaro ; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando ; Lola Da Costa, Antonio C. ; Fiore, Anthony Di; Ferreira, Leandro ; Higuchi, Niro ; Honorio, Euridice N. ; Killeen, Tim J. ; Laurance, Susan G. ; Laurance, William F. ; Licona, Juan ; Lovejoy, Thomas ; Malhi, Yadvinder ; Marimon, Bia ; Marimon, Ben Hur ; Matos, Darley C.L. ; Mendoza, Casimiro ; Neill, David A. ; Pardo, Guido ; Peña-Claros, Marielos ; Pitman, Nigel C.A. ; Poorter, Lourens ; Prieto, Adriana ; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma ; Roopsind, Anand ; Rudas, Agustin ; Salomao, Rafael P. ; Silveira, Marcos ; Stropp, Juliana ; Steege, Hans Ter; Terborgh, John ; Thomas, Raquel ; Toledo, Marisol ; Torres-Lezama, Armando ; Heijden, Geertje M.F. van der; Vasquez, Rodolfo ; Guimarães Vieira, Ima Cèlia ; Vilanova, Emilio ; Vos, Vincent A. ; Baker, Timothy R. - \ 2016
Global Change Biology 22 (2016)12. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 3996 - 4013.
Understanding the processes that determine aboveground biomass (AGB) in Amazonian forests is important for predicting the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental change and for designing and evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). AGB is determined by inputs from woody productivity (woody NPP) and the rate at which carbon is lost through tree mortality. Here, we test whether two direct metrics of tree mortality (the absolute rate of woody biomass loss and the rate of stem mortality) and/or woody NPP, control variation in AGB among 167 plots in intact forest across Amazonia. We then compare these relationships and the observed variation in AGB and woody NPP with the predictions of four DGVMs. The observations show that stem mortality rates, rather than absolute rates of woody biomass loss, are the most important predictor of AGB, which is consistent with the importance of stand size-structure for determining spatial variation in AGB. The relationship between stem mortality rates and AGB varies among different regions of Amazonia, indicating that variation in wood density and height/diameter relationships also influence AGB. In contrast to previous findings, we find that woody NPP is not correlated with stem mortality rates, and is weakly positively correlated with AGB. Across the four models, basin-wide average AGB is similar to the mean of the observations. However, the models consistently overestimate woody NPP, and poorly represent the spatial patterns of both AGB and woody NPP estimated using plot data. In marked contrast to the observations, DGVMs typically show strong positive relationships between woody NPP and AGB. Resolving these differences will require incorporating forest size structure, mechanistic models of stem mortality and variation in functional composition in DGVMs
Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America
Boit, Alice ; Sakschewski, Boris ; Boysen, Lena ; Cano-Crespo, Ana ; Clement, Jan ; Garcia-alaniz, Nashieli ; Kok, Kasper ; Kolb, Melanie ; Langerwisch, Fanny ; Rammig, Anja ; Sachse, René ; Eupen, Michiel van; Bloh, Werner von; Clara Zemp, Delphine ; Thonicke, Kirsten - \ 2016
Global Change Biology 22 (2016)11. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 3689 - 3701.
Attribution - Biome shifts - Climate change - Land-use change - Latin America

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.

Public access to web-based project data products
Kolb, M. ; Thonicke, K. ; Boit, A. ; Kooistra, L. ; Dutrieux, L.P. ; Herold, M. ; Cisowska, I. ; Blyth, E. - \ 2015
Wageningen UR (Public report D4.3.2 from the EC ROBIN project )
Leaf and stem economics spectra drive diversity of functional plant traits in a dynamic global vegetation model
Sakschewski, B. ; Bloh, W. von; Boit, A. ; Rammig, A. ; Kattge, J. ; Poorter, L. ; Peñualeas, J. ; Thonicke, K. - \ 2015
Global Change Biology 21 (2015)7. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 2711 - 2725.
Functional diversity is critical for ecosystem dynamics, stability and productivity. However, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) which are increasingly used to simulate ecosystem functions under global change, condense functional diversity to plant functional types (PFTs) with constant parameters. Here, we develop an individual- and trait-based version of the DGVM LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land) called LPJmL- flexible individual traits (LPJmL-FIT) with flexible individual traits) which we apply to generate plant trait maps for the Amazon basin. LPJmL-FIT incorporates empirical ranges of five traits of tropical trees extracted from the TRY global plant trait database, namely specific leaf area (SLA), leaf longevity (LL), leaf nitrogen content (Narea), the maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco per leaf area (inline image), and wood density (WD). To scale the individual growth performance of trees, the leaf traits are linked by trade-offs based on the leaf economics spectrum, whereas wood density is linked to tree mortality. No preselection of growth strategies is taking place, because individuals with unique trait combinations are uniformly distributed at tree establishment. We validate the modeled trait distributions by empirical trait data and the modeled biomass by a remote sensing product along a climatic gradient. Including trait variability and trade-offs successfully predicts natural trait distributions and achieves a more realistic representation of functional diversity at the local to regional scale. As sites of high climatic variability, the fringes of the Amazon promote trait divergence and the coexistence of multiple tree growth strategies, while lower plant trait diversity is found in the species-rich center of the region with relatively low climatic variability. LPJmL-FIT enables to test hypotheses on the effects of functional biodiversity on ecosystem functioning and to apply the DGVM to current challenges in ecosystem management from local to global scales, that is, deforestation and climate change effects.
Report on the likely response of the Amazon basin hydrology and river discharge to land use and climate change. EU-AMAZALERT Delivery report 2.4. Grant agreement no:282664
Randow, C. von; Biemans, H. ; Guimberteau, M. ; Langerwish, F. ; Garofolo Lopez, L. ; Poveda, G. ; Rammig, A. ; Randow, R. von; Rodriguez, D. ; Mohor, G. ; Lazaro, J. ; Thonicke, K. ; Tomassella, J. ; Verbeeck, H. - \ 2014
Alterra, Wageningen-UR - 41 p.
Consequences of future dams in the Amazon for hydropower production and ecosystems
Biemans, H. ; Hout, P. van der; Langerwisch, F. ; Rammig, A. ; Thonicke, K. ; Kruijt, B. - \ 2014
Framework for multi-scale integrated impact analyses of climate change mitigation options
Perez-Soba, M. ; Parr, T. ; Roupioz, L.F.S. ; Winograd, M. ; Peña-Claros, M. ; Varela Ortega, C. ; Ascarrunz, N. ; Balvanera, P. ; Bholanath, P. ; Equihua, M. ; Guerreiro, L. ; Jones, L. ; Maass, M. ; Thonicke, K. - \ 2013
In: Proceedings of Impacts World 2013, IC on Climate Change Effects. - Potsdam, Germany : Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - p. 182 - 189.
Tropical forest ecosystems are hotspots for biodiversity and represent one of the largest terrestrial carbon stocks, making their role in climate change mitigation (CCM) programmes increasingly important (e.g. REDD+). In Latin America these ecosystems suffer from high land use pressures that have resulted in a dramatic biodiversity loss. Little is known about how CCM options may impact on biodiversity and how this in turn may affect ecosystem carbon storage. Within this context, the FP7 ROBIN (Role Of Biodiversity In climate change mitigatioN) project developed a framework for multi-scale integrated analysis of the impacts that land use change may have on the ecological and social-economic processes of these ecosystems. The framework represents a continuous feedback loop in which changes in CCM options modify land use, that results in biodiversity change, affecting ecosystem functions, leading to changes in ecosystem services that affect human outcomes and societal behaviour, and which then affect the main drivers and pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems, and so on. We have constructed an indicator framework that allows to quantify, link and assess these interactions at three spatial scales: regional (Central and South America), national (Bolivia, Brazil, Guyana and Mexico) and sub-national (study sites representing multifunctional landscapes). Indicators are selected through a demand-driven approach, by directing modelling and assessment efforts towards end-user relevant issues using stakeholder participatory processes. Indicator values are grounded on field data, statistics and model outputs. The framework provides a basis for understanding potential tipping points and unexpected consequences that may arise from the implementation of climate change mitigation policies, or management options (e.g. reducing deforestation and burning, or expansion of areas of biofuel crops in illegal areas). An illustrative example, showing how the framework helps to identify the appropriate indicators to synthesise the impacts of afforestation (one of the CCM options) across the ecological and socio-ecological processes and regions is presented
Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe
Schröter, D. ; Cramer, W. ; Leemans, R. ; Prentice, I.C. ; Araujo, M.B. ; Arnell, N.W. ; Bondeau, A. ; Brugmann, H. ; Carter, T.R. ; Gracia, C.A. ; Vega-Leinert, A.C. de la; Erhard, M. ; Ewert, F. ; Glendining, M. ; House, J.I. ; Kankaanpää, S. ; Klein, R.J.T. ; Lavorel, S. ; Lindner, M. ; Metzger, M.J. ; Meyer, J. ; Mitchell, T. ; Reginster, I. ; Rounsevell, M. ; Sabate, S. ; Stich, S. ; Smith, B. ; Smith, J. ; Smith, P. ; Sykes, M.T. ; Thonicke, K. ; Thuiller, W. ; Tuck, G. ; Zaehle, S. ; Zierl, B. - \ 2005
Science 310 (2005)5752. - ISSN 0036-8075 - p. 1333 - 1337.
climate-change - land-use - future scenarios - biodiversity
Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.
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