Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    Non-Timber Forest Product Livelihood-Focused Interventions in Support of Mangrove Restoration: A Call to Action
    Debrot, Adolphe O. ; Veldhuizen, Ab ; Burg, Sander W.K. Van Den; Klapwijk, Charlotte J. ; Islam, Nazrul ; Alam, Iftakharul ; Ahsan, Mohammed Nazmul ; Ahmed, Moin U. ; Hasan, Selim R. ; Fadilah, Ratnawaty ; Noor, Yus R. ; Pribadi, Rudhi ; Rejeki, Sri ; Damastuti, Ekaningrum ; Koopmanschap, Esther ; Terwisscha Van Scheltinga, Catharien ; Reinhard, Stijn ; Verburg, Charlotte ; Poelman, Marnix - \ 2020
    Forests 11 (2020)11. - ISSN 1999-4907 - 17 p.
    Mangroves of tropical and subtropical shores and deltas contribute to ecosystem functioning and human wellbeing in numerous ways but continue to be lost or degraded worldwide at a rapid pace. Overexploitation driven by poverty is often the root cause of mangrove destruction and degradation. The negative feedback cycle between destruction and poverty can only be broken by justly valuing current or introducing new sustainable livelihood options to foster long-lasting local support for mangroves. The large array of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) that mangroves offer have rarely been developed beyond the subsistence level and remain undervalued as “products of the poor”. In light of the global trends towards sustainability and bio-economy, today they represent a major business opportunity for forest communities to produce high value-added end-user products. Even though mangrove NTFPs have been recognized to have high potential toward inclusive development and poverty alleviation and to be highly gender-equal, the development of mangrove NTFPs has continued to attract very little funding or research interest. Several ecological characteristics make commercialization of mangrove NTFPs particularly challenging. Production at economies of scale, including quality standards, as well as marketing and value chain management are all essential in order to develop these products beyond their subsistence role. To be most effective, a systems perspective on NTFP development is needed, whereby product-market development occurs in unison and based on a participative, inclusive and fair development approach. The species/product of choice for value-added product-market development in any specific community or area will depend on several factors. To address many of the typical constraints and maximize the chances of success, we suggest that the use of village or district-level cooperatives may be particularly useful. A better use of the untapped potential of mangroves for local livelihoods may form a most convincing advocate for local protection and restoration of mangrove forests. Therefore, funding agencies, governments and researchers alike are called to invest in mangrove NTFP development as a way to locally incentivize sustainable mangrove protection and restoration. View Full-Text
    Modelling food security : Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale
    Müller, Birgit ; Hoffmann, Falk ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Müller, Christoph ; Hertel, Thomas W. ; Polhill, J.G. ; Wijk, Mark van; Achterbosch, Thom ; Alexander, Peter ; Brown, Calum ; Kreuer, David ; Ewert, Frank ; Ge, Jiaqi ; Millington, James D.A. ; Seppelt, Ralf ; Verburg, Peter H. ; Webber, Heidi - \ 2020
    Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 63 (2020). - ISSN 0959-3780
    Agent-based models - Crop models - Economic equilibrium models - Food security - Land use - Model integration - Multi-scale interactions - Social-ecological feedbacks

    Achieving food and nutrition security for all in a changing and globalized world remains a critical challenge of utmost importance. The development of solutions benefits from insights derived from modelling and simulating the complex interactions of the agri-food system, which range from global to household scales and transcend disciplinary boundaries. A wide range of models based on various methodologies (from food trade equilibrium to agent-based) seek to integrate direct and indirect drivers of change in land use, environment and socio-economic conditions at different scales. However, modelling such interaction poses fundamental challenges, especially for representing non-linear dynamics and adaptive behaviours. We identify key pieces of the fragmented landscape of food security modelling, and organize achievements and gaps into different contextual domains of food security (production, trade, and consumption) at different spatial scales. Building on in-depth reflection on three core issues of food security – volatility, technology, and transformation – we identify methodological challenges and promising strategies for advancement. We emphasize particular requirements related to the multifaceted and multiscale nature of food security. They include the explicit representation of transient dynamics to allow for path dependency and irreversible consequences, and of household heterogeneity to incorporate inequality issues. To illustrate ways forward we provide good practice examples using meta-modelling techniques, non-equilibrium approaches and behavioural-based modelling endeavours. We argue that further integration of different model types is required to better account for both multi-level agency and cross-scale feedbacks within the food system.

    Chemokine CXCb1 stimulates formation of NETs in trunk kidney neutrophils of common carp
    Pijanowski, Lukasz ; Verburg van Kemenade, Lidy ; Chadzinska, Magdalena - \ 2020
    Developmental and Comparative Immunology 103 (2020). - ISSN 0145-305X
    CXC chemokines - Histone H3 - NADPH oxidase - Neutrophil elastase - Neutrophil extracellular traps

    Both in mammals and in fish, CXC chemokines activate leukocytes and regulate their migration both under normal physiological and inflammatory conditions. Moreover, in mammalian neutrophils CXC chemokines also stimulate the formation of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). Here, we investigated the effects of recombinant carp CXCL8s and CXCb1 on NET formation in neutrophils from the head (HK) and trunk (TK) kidney of carp. We found that neither recombinant CXCL8s nor CXCb1 stimulated DNA release in HK-derived neutrophils, while in TK-derived cells rcCXCb1 stimulated the release of NETs, composed of extracellular DNA co-localized with citrulline H3 histone and neutrophil elastase. Furthermore, CXCb1-induced NET release required NADPH oxidase activity, while it did not change upon treatment with CXCR inhibitors. In conclusion, we demonstrated, for the first time in fish, that CXCb1 chemokine induces formation of NETs in TK-derived neutrophils and this process is ROS-dependent. The difference between HK and TK-derived neutrophils is probably related to differences in the maturation state of these cells.

    Delta's under pressure : Workshop report
    Klapwijk, C.J. ; Koopmanschap, E.M.J. ; Verhagen, A. ; Blom-Zandstra, M. ; Creusen, R.J.M. ; Verburg, Charlotte ; Vosman, B. - \ 2019
    Wageningen : Wageningen Research
    Deltas Under Pressure - New Transition Pathways towards Resilient Food
    Terwisscha van Scheltinga, C.T.H.M. ; Reinhard, A.J. ; Verburg, Charlotte ; Blom-Zandstra, M. ; Klapwijk, C.J. ; Debrot, A.O. ; Koopmanschap, E.M.J. - \ 2019
    Wageningen : Wageningen University & Research - 2 p.
    Wageningen University and Research and various stakeholders propose new transition pathways towards resilient food systems in Deltas Under Pressure and develop tools to support these transitions. Essential elements of the food system will be integrated and combined, connecting field, farm, regional and national levels to increase future food security
    MAGIC: Moving Towards Adaptive Governance in Complexity: Informing Nexus Security : Report on EU socio-ecological systems
    Ripoll Bosch, R. ; Giampietro, M. ; Cabello, V. ; Cadillo Benalcazar, J. ; Kovacic, Z. ; Boer, I.J.M. de; Felice, L. Di; Krol, M.S. ; Matthews, K. ; Miller, D. ; Muscat, A. ; Olde, E.M. de; Renner, A. ; Serrano-Tovar, T. ; Verburg, C.C.A. ; Wardell-Johnson, D. - \ 2019
    EU - 324 p.
    The sustainability agenda builds on key components (i.e. food, water, energy, land use, climate and environment) that are inherently interconnected in a Nexus. MAGIC uses an innovative approach to test the robustness of narratives about the Nexus in Europe and focuses on the EU’ sustainable strategy. The aim of this deliverable is to operationalize and test a tool-kit to structure the quantitative analysis of the metabolic pattern of social-ecological systems in relation to their sustainability and the Nexus, at different levels of aggregation and spatial scales (EU, country or regional level). We use “quantitative story telling” as an alternative approach to use scientific information generated and better inform policy-makers. This deliverable builds on the methodological approach and the basic features of the theoretical framework of accounting called Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM). The application of the tool-kit in this deliverable has the only goal of illustrating the potentiality of the approach. In a series of chapters we i) present the theoretical background and features of the tool-kit used to characterize the state-of-the-play (diagnostic analysis) with regard to the sustainability of SES; ii) provide an overview of the results obtained in the analysis of 8 EU countries (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Romania, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom); iii) demonstrate the capability of the toolkit to perform the anlysis at diffrent scales (in this case, at a lower aggregated level -NUTS2-); and iv) highlight the methodological breakthrough provided by relational analysis and its relevance for policy making with regard to the water-energy-food-environment Nexus.
    Effects of stress and cortisol on the polarization of carp macrophages
    Maciuszek, Magdalena ; Rydz, Leszek ; Świtakowska, Iga ; Verburg-van Kemenade, Lidy ; Chadzińska, Magdalena - \ 2019
    Fish and Shellfish Immunology 94 (2019). - ISSN 1050-4648 - p. 27 - 37.
    Carp - Cortisol - Head kidney - Monocytes/macrophages - Stress - Trunk kidney

    In teleost fish, myelopoiesis is maintained both in the head (HK) and trunk kidney (TK), but only the HK holds the endocrine cells that produce the stress hormone cortisol. We now compared the effects of prolonged restraint stress (in vivo) and cortisol (in vitro) on the polarization of HK and TK-derived carp macrophages. Monocytes/macrophages from both sources were treated in vitro with cortisol, lipopolysaccharide or with both factors combined. In vivo, fish were challenged by a prolonged restraint stress. Gene expression of several markers typical for classical M1 and alternative M2 macrophage polarization, as well as glucocorticoid receptors, were measured. Cells from both sources did not differ in the constitutive gene expression of glucocorticoid receptors, whereas they significantly differed in their response to cortisol and stress. In the LPS-stimulated HK monocytes/macrophages, cortisol in vitro counteracted the action of LPS while the effects of cortisol on the activity of TK monocytes/macrophages were less explicit. In vivo, restraint stress up-regulated gene expression of M2 markers in freshly isolated HK monocytes/macrophages, while at the same time it did not affect TK monocytes/macrophages. Moreover, LPS-stimulated HK monocytes/macrophages from stressed animals showed only minor differences in the gene expression of M1 and M2 markers, compared to LPS-treated monocytes/macrophages from control fish. In contrast, stress-induced changes in TK-derived LPS-treated cells were more pronounced. However, these changes did not clearly indicate whether in TK monocytes/macrophages stress will stimulate classical or alternative polarization. Altogether, our results imply that cortisol in vitro and stress in vivo direct HK, but not TK, monocytes/macrophages to the path of alternative polarization. These findings reveal that like in mammals, also in fish the glucocorticoids form important stimulators of alternative macrophage polarization.

    A framework to estimate biodiversity loss and associated costs due to nitrogen emissions from single power plants
    Verburg, René W. ; Osseweijer, Floor - \ 2019
    Journal of Cleaner Production 239 (2019). - ISSN 0959-6526
    Biodiversity - Compensation costs - Energy production - Nitrogen emissions

    Environmental reporting by companies is becoming increasingly important for measuring sustainability performance, but biodiversity impacts are still largely unaccounted for due to the complexity of assessing such impacts. Energy production by power plants causes nitrogen emissions that may affect nature areas. To assess the impact of power plants on the biodiversity of Natura 2000 areas and to estimate compensation costs, we developed an analytical framework and applied it to four single power plants in the Netherlands. These plants differed according to production capacity and fuel source (natural gas and biomass). The plants affected between 77 and 537 km2 of Natura 2000 nature areas. To estimate cost of biodiversity loss and compensation, three approaches were applied: costs of restoration, ‘insetting’ costs incurred by creating new nature areas within the current Natura 2000 network, and offsetting costs, including land purchase of former agricultural land. Depending on the nitrogen exceedance levels of vegetation, compensation areas ranged between 6.5 and 23.6 ha. The estimated total cost per power plant varied from € 38,430 to € 1,753,261 annually. Depending on the cost method applied, biodiversity cost of energy production by single power plants ranged from 0.06 €.MWh−1 to 1.65 €.MWh−1. This cost largely depends on the type and location of the vegetation affected, which indicates that a spatial analysis is needed to measure the biodiversity footprint of business operations in environmental reporting.

    Recept voor plastic soep
    Verburg, Charlotte - \ 2019
    In: Plastic: Van zegen tot vloek / van Everdingen, Jannes, van Donk, Ellen, Poolen, Daniël, Buiter, Rob, Den Haag : Stichting Biowetenschappen en Maatschappij (Cahier Biowetenschappen en Maatschappij 2) - ISBN 9789073196957 - p. 36 - 47.
    Twintig jaar terug ontdekte de Amerikaanse oceanograaf en kapitein Charles Moore in de StilleOceaan de eerste zogenoemde ‘plastic soep’: een enorme plek met een relatief hoge concentratieronddrijvend plastic. Inmiddels is die soep een iconisch begrip bij het grote publiek. Om tebegrijpen wat er aan de plastic soep kan worden gedaan – opruimen bij de bron of de uitgang? –zul je het moeten terugvolgen naar de bron. Waar komt al dat plastic vandaan?
    A role for CXC chemokines and their receptors in stress axis regulation of common carp
    Pijanowski, Lukasz ; Verburg-van Kemenade, Lidy ; Chadzinska, Magdalena - \ 2019
    General and Comparative Endocrinology 280 (2019). - ISSN 0016-6480 - p. 194 - 199.
    Carp - CXC chemokines - CXC receptors - Stress

    Although chemokines mainly function to activate leukocytes and to direct their migration, novel evidence indicates non-immune functions for chemokines within the nervous and endocrine systems. These include development of the nervous system, neuromodulation, neuroendocrine regulation and direct neurotransmitter-like actions. In order to clarify a potential role for chemokines and their receptors in the stress response of fish, we studied changes in the expression patterns of CXC ligands and their receptors in the stress axis organs of carp, during a restraint stress procedure. We showed that stress down-regulated the gene expression of CXCL9-11 (CXCb1 and CXCb2)in stress axis organs and up-regulated expression of CXCR4 chemokine receptor in NPO and pituitary. Moreover, upon stress, reduced gene expression of CXCL12a and CXCL14 was observed in the head kidney. Our results imply that in teleost fish, CXC chemokines and their receptors are involved in neuroendocrine regulation. The active regulation of their expression in stress axis organs during periods of restraint indicates a significant role in the stress response.

    D4.3 Report on exploratory applications of the MuSIASEM Toolbox in Quantitative Story-Telling for anticipation
    Krol, M. ; Cabello, V. ; Cadillo Benalcazar, J. ; Olde, E.M. de; Felice, L. Di; Giampietro, M. ; Muscat, A. ; Renner, A. ; Ripa, M. ; Ripoll Bosch, R. ; Serrano-Tovar, T. ; Verburg, C.C.A. - \ 2018
    EU - 47 p.
    The present deliverable relates to the objective of WP4 to structure the perception and representation of the Nexus using the approach of Quantitative Story-Telling based on the MuSIASEM accounting framework. In particular, it addresses the topics of Tasks 4.4 ‘Global Drivers’, 4.5 ‘Planetary Boundaries’, and 4.6 ‘Externalization’. In a series of exploratory analyses it illustrates MuSIASEM accounting and its potential for Quantitative Story-Telling for anticipation. Rather than claiming to generate plausible predictions of the future, the analyses aim to explore the feasibility, viability and desirability of assumed radical transformations. The deliverable covers the following three anticipatory applications:
    a dramatic decarbonisation in relation to energy supply for a sample of 6 EU countries, with consequences for required assets and investments;
    a dramatic reduction in the externalization of food supply for a sample of 8 EU countries while considering water as an entangled variable, with consequences for agro-economic activities and labour requirement in an urbanizing EU;
    a dramatic change in global population and dietary patterns, in relation to regional materialisations of planetary boundaries, with consequences for meeting regional biospheric constraints to self-sufficiency and interregional dependencies.
    Food systems for sustainable development : proposals for a profound four-part transformation
    Caron, Patrick ; Ferrero y de Loma-Osorio, Gabriel ; Nabarro, David ; Hainzelin, Etienne ; Guillou, Marion ; Andersen, Inger ; Arnold, Tom ; Astralaga, Margarita ; Beukeboom, Marcel ; Bickersteth, Sam ; Bwalya, Martin ; Caballero, Paula ; Campbell, Bruce M. ; Divine, Ntiokam ; Fan, Shenggen ; Frick, Martin ; Friis, Anette ; Gallagher, Martin ; Halkin, Jean Pierre ; Hanson, Craig ; Lasbennes, Florence ; Ribera, Teresa ; Rockstrom, Johan ; Schuepbach, Marlen ; Steer, Andrew ; Tutwiler, Ann ; Verburg, Gerda - \ 2018
    Agronomy for Sustainable Development 38 (2018)4. - ISSN 1774-0746
    Agriculture - Climate change - Food systems - Koronivia - Nexus - Sustainable development - Transformation

    Evidence shows the importance of food systems for sustainable development: they are at the nexus that links food security, nutrition, and human health, the viability of ecosystems, climate change, and social justice. However, agricultural policies tend to focus on food supply, and sometimes, on mechanisms to address negative externalities. We propose an alternative. Our starting point is that agriculture and food systems’ policies should be aligned to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This calls for deep changes in comparison with the paradigms that prevailed when steering the agricultural change in the XXth century. We identify the comprehensive food systems transformation that is needed. It has four parts: first, food systems should enable all people to benefit from nutritious and healthy food. Second, they should reflect sustainable agricultural production and food value chains. Third, they should mitigate climate change and build resilience. Fourth, they should encourage a renaissance of rural territories. The implementation of the transformation relies on (i) suitable metrics to aid decision-making, (ii) synergy of policies through convergence of local and global priorities, and (iii) enhancement of development approaches that focus on territories. We build on the work of the “Milano Group,” an informal group of experts convened by the UN Secretary General in Milan in 2015. Backed by a literature review, what emerges is a strategic narrative linking climate, agriculture and food, and calling for a deep transformation of food systems at scale. This is critical for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. The narrative highlights the needed consistency between global actions for sustainable development and numerous local-level innovations. It emphasizes the challenge of designing differentiated paths for food systems transformation responding to local and national expectations. Scientific and operational challenges are associated with the alignment and arbitration of local action within the context of global priorities.

    WURKS casus Verburg
    Philipsen, A.P. - \ 2018
    Wageningen : Wageningen Livestock Research - 66 p.
    Een transitie naar natuur-inclusieve landbouw: van 'waarom' naar 'hoe'
    Dijk, Jerry van; Verburg, Rene ; Runhaar, Hens ; Hekkert, M. - \ 2018
    How can landscape ecology contribute to sustainability science?
    Opdam, Paul ; Luque, Sandra ; Nassauer, Joan ; Verburg, Peter H. ; Wu, Jianguo - \ 2018
    Landscape Ecology 33 (2018)1. - ISSN 0921-2973 - p. 1 - 7.
    A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways
    Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Verburg, Peter H. ; Popp, Alexander ; Lindner, Marcus ; Verkerk, Pieter J. ; Moiseyev, Alexander ; Schrammeijer, Elizabeth ; Helming, John ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Schulp, Catharina J.E. ; Zanden, Emma H. van der; Lavalle, Carlo ; E Silva, Filipe Batista ; Walz, Ariane ; Bodirsky, Benjamin - \ 2018
    Regional Environmental Change 18 (2018)3. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 751 - 762.
    Cross-scale interaction - Impact assessment - Integrated modelling - Land use change - Nature protection
    Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales.
    Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe
    Verkerk, Pieter J. ; Lindner, Marcus ; Pérez-Soba, Marta ; Paterson, James S. ; Helming, John ; Verburg, Peter H. ; Kuemmerle, Tobias ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Moiseyev, Alexander ; Müller, Daniel ; Popp, Alexander ; Schulp, Catharina J.E. ; Stürck, Julia ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Wolfslehner, Bernhard ; Zanden, Emma H. van der - \ 2018
    Regional Environmental Change 18 (2018)3. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 817 - 830.
    Explorative scenarios - Land use - Normative visions - Pathways

    Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such mismatches is important for identifying policies to resolve them. This paper presents an approach to link explorative projections of future land use for the European Union to normative visions of desired land-use futures. We used the results of 24 scenario projections obtained from seven linked simulation models to explore uncertainty in future land-use developments. Land-use projections were linked to statements made by stakeholders for three normative visions of desired, future land use. The visions differed in the scale of multifunctionality of land use: at European (Best Land in Europe), regional (Regional Connected) or local (Local Multifunctional) level. To identify pathways to these visions, we analysed in which cases projected land-use changes matched with the land-use changes desired in the visions. We identified five pathways to the vision Regional Connected, two pathways to the vision Best Land in Europe, but no pathway to the vision Local Multifunctional. Our results suggest that policies have the ability to change the development of land use such that it is more in line with land-use futures desired by society. We believe our approach represents an interesting avenue for foresight studies on land use, as it combines the credibility from explorative scenarios with legitimacy and saliency of normative visions.

    Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe
    Stürck, Julia ; Levers, Christian ; Zanden, Emma Henriëtta van der; Schulp, Catharina Johanna Elizabeth ; Verkerk, Pieter Johannes ; Kuemmerle, Tobias ; Helming, John ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Popp, Alexander ; Schrammeijer, Elizabeth ; Verburg, Peter - \ 2018
    Regional Environmental Change 18 (2018)3. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 733 - 749.
    Ecosystem service - Europe - Land system - Land use change - Modeling - Scenario

    Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

    Instrumentarium Kosten Natuurbeleid (IKN) : Tussenrapportage WOT-04-011-036.86
    Verburg, R.W. ; Michels, R. - \ 2017
    Wettelijke Onderzoekstaken Natuur & Milieu (WOt-interne notitie 207)
    Scoping studie kosteneffectiviteit : Tussenrapportage WOT-04-010-036.83
    Michels, R. ; Verburg, R.W. ; Blaeij, A.T. de; Linderhof, Vincent ; Terluin, I.J. - \ 2017
    Wettelijke Onderzoekstaken Natuur & Milieu (WOt-interne notitie 210)
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