Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    Progress and barriers in understanding and preventing indirect land-use change
    Daioglou, Vassilis ; Woltjer, Geert ; Strengers, Bart ; Elbersen, Berien ; Barberena Ibañez, Goizeder ; Sánchez Gonzalez, David ; Gil Barno, Javier ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2020
    Biofuels Bioproducts and Biorefining (2020). - ISSN 1932-104X
    agriculture - bioenergy - biofuels - climate change mitigation - indirect land-use change - modeling

    Climate change mitigation pathways have highlighted both the critical role of land-use emissions, and the potential use of biofuels as a low-emission energy carrier. This has led to concerns about the emission mitigation potential of biofuels, particularly related to indirect land-use change (ILUC). This arises when the production of biofuels displaces the production of land-based products elsewhere, either directly or via changes in crop prices, leading to indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We review a large body of literature that has emerged on ILUC assessment and quantification, highlighting the methodologies employed, the resultant emission factors, modeled dynamics driving ILUC, and the uncertainty therein. Our review reveals that improvements in ILUC assessment methods have failed to reduce uncertainty and increase confidence in ILUC factors, instead making marginal improvements to economic models. Thus, while assessments have highlighted measures that could reduce ILUC, it is impossible to control or determine the actual ILUC resulting from biofuel production. This makes ILUC a poor guiding principle for land-use and climate policy, and does not help with the determination of the GHG performance of biofuels. Instead climate and land-use policy should focus on more integrated protection of terrestrial resources, covering all land-use-related products.

    Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
    Roelfsema, Mark ; Soest, Heleen L. van; Harmsen, Mathijs ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Bertram, Christoph ; Elzen, Michel den; Höhne, Niklas ; Iacobuta, Gabriela ; Krey, Volker ; Kriegler, Elmar ; Luderer, Gunnar ; Riahi, Keywan ; Ueckerdt, Falko ; Després, Jacques ; Drouet, Laurent ; Emmerling, Johannes ; Frank, Stefan ; Fricko, Oliver ; Gidden, Matthew ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Huppmann, Daniel ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Fragkiadakis, Kostas ; Gi, Keii ; Keramidas, Kimon ; Köberle, Alexandre C. ; Aleluia Reis, Lara ; Rochedo, Pedro ; Schaeffer, Roberto ; Oshiro, Ken ; Vrontisi, Zoi ; Chen, Wenying ; Iyer, Gokul C. ; Edmonds, Jae ; Kannavou, Maria ; Jiang, Kejun ; Mathur, Ritu ; Safonov, George ; Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma - \ 2020
    Nature Communications 11 (2020)1. - ISSN 2041-1723

    Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.

    Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs
    Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Hof, Andries F. ; Braakhekke, Maarten C. ; Gernaat, David E.H.J. ; Berg, Maarten van den; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Meijl, Hans van; Lucas, Paul L. - \ 2020
    Global Change Biology 26 (2020)3. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 1576 - 1591.
    afforestation - climate change mitigation - food security - integrated assessment - land-based mitigation - negative emissions

    Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO2/year at 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO2 cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.

    Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4
    Schipper, Aafke M. ; Hilbers, Jelle P. ; Meijer, Johan R. ; Antão, Laura H. ; Benítez-López, Ana ; Jonge, Melinda M.J. de; Leemans, Luuk H. ; Scheper, Eddy ; Alkemade, Rob ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Mylius, Sido ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Huijbregts, Mark A.J. - \ 2020
    Global Change Biology 26 (2020)2. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 760 - 771.
    anthropocene - biodiversity scenarios - global environmental change - land-use downscaling - mean species abundance

    Scenario-based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio-economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc-seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area-weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (−0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil-fuelled development scenarios (−0.06 and −0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub-Saharan Africa. In some scenario-region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.

    Integrated scenarios to support analysis of the food–energy–water nexus
    Vuuren, Detlef P. Van; Bijl, David L. ; Bogaart, Patrick ; Stehfest, Elke ; Biemans, Hester ; Dekker, Stefan C. ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Gernaat, David E.H.J. ; Harmsen, Mathijs - \ 2019
    Nature Sustainability 2 (2019)12. - ISSN 2398-9629 - p. 1132 - 1141.

    The literature emphasizes the important relationships between the consumption and production of food, energy and water, and environmental challenges such as climate change and loss of biodiversity. New tools are needed to analyse the future dynamics of this nexus. Here, we introduce a set of model-based scenarios and associated Sankey diagrams that enable analysis of the relevant relationships and dynamics, as well as the options to formulate response strategies. The scenarios show that if no new policies are adopted, food production and energy generation could further increase by around 60%, and water consumption by around 20% over the period 2015–2050, leading to further degradation of resources and increasing environmental pressure. Response strategies in terms of climate policies, higher agricultural yields, dietary change and reduction of food waste are analysed to reveal how they may contribute to reversing these trends, and possibly even lead to a reduction of land use in the future.

    Modeling forest plantations for carbon uptake with the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model
    Braakhekke, Maarten C. ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Baas, Peter ; Müller, Christoph ; Schaphoff, Sibyll ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. Van - \ 2019
    Earth System dynamics 10 (2019)4. - ISSN 2190-4979 - p. 617 - 630.

    We present an extension of the dynamic global vegetation model, Lund-Potsdam-Jena Managed Land (LPJmL), to simulate planted forests intended for carbon (C) sequestration. We implemented three functional types to simulate plantation trees in temperate, tropical, and boreal climates. The parameters of these functional types were optimized to fit target growth curves (TGCs). These curves represent the evolution of stemwood C over time in typical productive plantations and were derived by combining field observations and LPJmL estimates for equivalent natural forests. While the calibrated model underestimates stemwood C growth rates compared to the TGCs, it represents substantial improvement over using natural forests to represent afforestation. Based on a simulation experiment in which we compared global natural forest versus global forest plantation, we found that forest plantations allow for much larger C uptake rates on the timescale of 100 years, with a maximum difference of a factor of 1.9, around 54 years. In subsequent simulations for an ambitious but realistic scenario in which 650Mha (14% of global managed land, 4.5% of global land surface) are converted to forest over 85 years, we found that natural forests take up 37PgC versus 48PgC for forest plantations. Comparing these results to estimations of C sequestration required to achieve the 2°C climate target, we conclude that afforestation can offer a substantial contribution to climate mitigation. Full evaluation of afforestation as a climate change mitigation strategy requires an integrated assessment which considers all relevant aspects, including costs, biodiversity, and trade-offs with other land-use types. Our extended version of LPJmL can contribute to such an assessment by providing improved estimates of C uptake rates by forest plantations.

    Reconciling global sustainability targets and local action for food production and climate change mitigation
    Gil, Juliana D.B. ; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Ittersum, Martin van; Reidsma, Pytrik ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Middelaar, Corina E. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2019
    Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 59 (2019). - ISSN 0959-3780
    Agriculture - Cross-scale analysis - Scenario analysis - Sustainable Development Goals - Trade-offs

    The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) imply country-led implementation. Yet, their achievement depends on sustainability targets compatible across different sectors and scales. Our study examines how the GHG emission intensity of agriculture (EIA) should evolve globally, regionally (Western Europe) and nationally (The Netherlands) under different socioeconomic pathways, so that two major aims of SDGs 2 and 13 (i.e. sufficient food production and climate change mitigation) are achieved simultaneously. Results show that, by 2050, relative to 2010 values, EIA should decrease at all three levels when measured on a product basis (GHG emissions per ton dry matter) and on a land basis (GHG emissions per ha). This indicates that, globally, agriculture should be intensified per unit area, while in Western Europe and even more so in the Netherlands additional emission reductions require increased production efficiency and lower production volumes. Projected reductions in methane and nitrous oxide emissions from enteric fermentation, manure management and fertilizer application in Dutch agriculture are much higher than what would be achieved through the extrapolation of current trends. Given the high costs of increasing production efficiency further, our analysis indicates the need for significantly more ambitious policy targets and systemic changes, including reduced consumption of animal-sourced food. Besides shedding light on the interaction between climate and agricultural strategies, our analysis illustrates the application of cross-scale thinking in the operationalization of the SDG agenda and underscores the need for concerted action amongst countries.

    A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation
    Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Krey, Volker ; Riahi, Keywan ; Bertram, Christoph ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Bosetti, Valentina ; Callen, Jessica ; Després, Jacques ; Doelman, Jonathan ; Drouet, Laurent ; Emmerling, Johannes ; Frank, Stefan ; Fricko, Oliver ; Havlik, Petr ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Meijl, Hans van; Ochi, Yuki ; Popp, Alexander ; Schmitz, Andreas ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Vuuren, Detlef van - \ 2019
    Nature Sustainability 2 (2019)5. - ISSN 2398-9629 - p. 386 - 396.

    Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.

    Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways
    Berg, Nicole J. van den; Soest, Heleen L. van; Hof, Andries F. ; Elzen, Michel G.J. den; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Chen, Wenying ; Drouet, Laurent ; Emmerling, Johannes ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Höhne, Niklas ; Kõberle, Alexandre C. ; McCollum, David ; Schaeffer, Roberto ; Shekhar, Swapnil ; Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma ; Vrontisi, Zoi ; Blok, Kornelis - \ 2019
    Climatic Change (2019). - ISSN 0165-0009

    The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay. As the results critically depend on parameter settings, we used the wide authorship from a range of countries included in this paper to determine default settings and sensitivity analyses. Results show that effort-sharing approaches that (i) calculate required reduction targets in carbon budgets (relative to baseline budgets) and/or (ii) take into account historical emissions when determining carbon budgets can lead to (large) negative remaining carbon budgets for developed countries. This is the case for the equal cumulative per capita approach and especially the greenhouse development rights approach. Furthermore, for developed countries, all effort-sharing approaches except grandfathering lead to more stringent budgets than cost-optimal budgets, indicating that cost-optimal approaches do not lead to outcomes that can be regarded as fair according to most effort-sharing approaches.

    Photo-stability of a flavonoid dye in presence of aluminium ions
    Villela, Alexandre ; Vuuren, Monique S.A. van; Willemen, Hendra M. ; Derksen, Goverdina C.H. ; Beek, Teris A. van - \ 2019
    Dyes and Pigments 162 (2019). - ISSN 0143-7208 - p. 222 - 231.
    Flavonoid - Light-fastness - Luteolin - Natural dye - Reseda luteola - Weld

    The main colouring compounds of the dye plant weld (Reseda luteola L.) are the flavones luteolin (lut), lut-7-O-glucoside and lut-7,3ʹ-O-diglucoside. Alum (an aluminium salt)-premordanted wool dyed with weld leads to yellow colours that are of low resistance to light. The photo-stability of lut in aerated methanol–water 8:2 (v/v) solution upon irradiation with light above 300 nm was studied at different lut–Al3+ ratios. Experiments using extracts of weld to dye wool premordanted with increasing quantities of aluminium salts were also carried out. The photo-stability of lut in the polar protic solvent and the photo-resistance (light-fastness) of the colour of weld-dyed wool decrease with increasing concentrations of aluminium ions. Thus, the lower the [Al3+] used for mordanting the wool, the more light-fast its colour. Lowering the [Al3+] appears to have no negative influence on the wash-fastness of the colour. As the gain in light-fastness by the use of low [Al3+] to premordant the wool is not extensive, however, this does not seem to be a way to meet today's requirement of light-fastness of the colours of dyed textiles by itself. Nevertheless, it may be part of a bigger strategy to address the need for increased light-fastness of the colour of wool dyed with weld. Implementation of this approach by dyers is expected to clarify whether it results in benefits for textile dyeing practice.

    Report on the Workshop ‘Next Steps in Developing Nature Futures’ : Meeting of the expert group on Scenarios and Models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, June 2018, the Hague, the Netherlands
    Schoolenberg, Machteld ; Belder, E. den; Okayasu, Sana ; Alkemade, J.R.M. ; Lundquist, Carolyn J. ; Pereira, Henrique Miguel ; Chettri, Nakul ; Cheung, William ; Ferrier, Simon ; Hauck, Jennifer ; Hendriks, Rob J.J. ; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E. ; Kim, Hye Jin ; Kolomytsev, Grigoriy ; Kuiper, Jan ; Leadley, Paul ; Metzger, Jean Paul ; Ninan, K.N. ; Palomo, Gabriela ; Pereira, Laura ; Pichs, Ramon ; Popp, Alexander ; Ravera, Federica ; Rondinini, Carlo ; Rosa, Isabel M.D. ; Sathyapalan, Jyothis ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2018
    PBL Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL publication 3411) - 27 p.
    A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios
    Kim, Hyejin ; Rosa, Isabel M.D. ; Alkemade, Rob ; Leadley, Paul ; Hurtt, George ; Popp, Alexander ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Anthoni, Peter ; Arneth, Almut ; Baisero, Daniele ; Caton, Emma ; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca ; Chini, Louise ; Palma, Adriana De; Fulvio, Fulvio Di; Marco, Moreno Di; Espinoza, Felipe ; Ferrier, Simon ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Gonzalez, Ricardo E. ; Gueguen, Maya ; Guerra, Carlos ; Harfoot, Mike ; Harwood, Thomas D. ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Haverd, Vanessa ; Havlík, Petr ; Hellweg, Stefanie ; Hill, Samantha L.L. ; Hirata, Akiko ; Hoskins, Andrew J. ; Janse, Jan H. ; Jetz, Walter ; Johnson, Justin A. ; Krause, Andreas ; Leclère, David ; Martins, Ines S. ; Matsui, Tetsuya ; Merow, Cory ; Obersteiner, Michael ; Ohashi, Haruka ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Purvis, Andy ; Quesada, Benjamin ; Rondinini, Carlo ; Schipper, Aafke M. ; Sharp, Richard ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Thuiller, Wilfried ; Titeux, Nicolas - \ 2018
    Geoscientific Model Development 11 (2018)11. - ISSN 1991-959X - p. 4537 - 4562.

    To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

    Reconciling global sustainability targets and regional action for food security and climate change mitigation
    Reidsma, P. ; Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana ; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Ittersum, M.K. van; Vuuren, D. van - \ 2018
    Part of afternoon work session Routekaart voor een SDG-proof voedselsysteem
    Reconciling global sustainability targets and regional action for food security and climate change mitigation
    Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana ; Daioglou, V. ; Ittersum, M.K. van; Reidsma, P. ; Vuuren, D. van - \ 2018
    Reconciling global sustainability targets and regional action for food security and climate change mitigation
    Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana ; Daioglou, V. ; Ittersum, M.K. van; Reidsma, P. ; Vuuren, D. van - \ 2018
    - 1 p.
    The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) imply country-led implementation, however their success depends on the reconciliation of sustainability targets across different sectors and scales. Ensuring consistency between climate mitigation efforts and national agricultural policies is no trivial task and may involve significant trade-offs. Our study examines how the GHG emission intensity of agriculture (EIA) should evolve globally, regionally (Western Europe) and nationally (The Netherlands) under different socioeconomic pathways, so that the major aims of SDG-2 (i.e. food security) and SDG-13 (i.e. 2oC climate mitigation target) are achieved simultaneously. Results show that, by 2050, relative to 2010 values, EIA should decrease at all three levels –both when measured on a land basis (MtCO2eq/ha) and on a product basis (MtCO2eq/tonDM). Concerning the Dutch agricultural sector, the comparison of current and projected CH4 and N2O emission levels related to enteric fermentation, manure management and agricultural soils reveals the need for significantly more ambitious policy targets. Over 2010-30, assuming that food production remains constant, our model indicates that Dutch agricultural GHG emissions must decrease by 26% in absolute terms and 28% in EIA-product terms; however, the extrapolation of today’s trends may ensure a reduction of no more than 5% and 8%, respectively. Besides shedding light on the interaction between climate and agricultural strategies, our analysis illustrates the application of cross-scale thinking in the operationalization of the SDG agenda and constitutes a step forward in bridging bottom-up and top-down research
    A Global Analysis of Future Water Deficit Based On Different Allocation Mechanisms
    Bijl, David L. ; Biemans, Hester ; Bogaart, Patrick W. ; Dekker, Stefan C. ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2018
    Water Resources Research 54 (2018)8. - ISSN 0043-1397 - p. 5803 - 5824.
    integrated assessment model - irrigation - socioeconomic development - water demand - water scarcity - water-food-energy nexus

    Freshwater scarcity is already an urgent problem in some areas but may increase significantly in the future. To assess future developments, we need to understand how future population growth, agricultural production patterns, energy use, economic development, and climate change may impact the global freshwater cycle. Integrated models provide opportunities for quantitative assessment. In this paper, we further integrate models of hydrology and economics, using the models IMAGE and LPJmL, with explicit accounting for (1) electricity, industry, and municipal and irrigation water use; (2) intersectoral water allocation rules at the 0.5° × 0.5°grid scale; and (3) withdrawal, consumption, and return flows. With the integration between hydrology and economy we are able to understand competition dynamics between the different freshwater users at the basin and grid scale. We run model projections for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), more efficient water use, and no expansion of irrigated areas to understand the competition dynamics of these different allocation mechanisms. We conclude that (1) global water withdrawal is projected to increase by 12% in SSP-1, 26% in SSP-2, and 29% in SSP-3 during 2010–2050; (2) water deficits (demand minus allocated water) for nonagricultural uses are small in 2010 but become significant around 2050; (3) interannual variability of precipitation results in variability of water deficits; (4) water use efficiency improvements reduce water withdrawal but have little impact on water deficits; and (5) priority rules at the local level have a large effect on water deficits, whereas limiting the expansion of irrigation has virtually no effect.

    Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples : the ‘good practice policies’ scenario
    Roelfsema, Mark ; Fekete, Hanna ; Höhne, Niklas ; Elzen, Michel den; Forsell, Nicklas ; Kuramochi, Takeshi ; Coninck, Heleen de; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2018
    Climate Policy 18 (2018)9. - ISSN 1469-3062 - p. 1103 - 1113.
    2°C limit - Enhancing ambition - integrated assessment modelling - sector indicators - successful policies
    This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO2e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO2e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances. Key policy insightsConsiderable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.
    Pathways for agriculture and forestry to contribute to terrestrial biodiversity conservation : A global scenario-study
    Kok, Marcel T.J. ; Alkemade, Rob ; Bakkenes, Michel ; Eerdt, Martha van; Janse, Jan ; Mandryk, Maryia ; Kram, Tom ; Lazarova, Tanya ; Meijer, Johan ; Oorschot, Mark van; Westhoek, Henk ; Zagt, Roderick van der; Berg, Maurits van der; Esch, Stefan van der; Prins, Anne Gerdien ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2018
    Biological Conservation 221 (2018). - ISSN 0006-3207 - p. 137 - 150.
    Agriculture - Biodiversity conservation - Forestry - Global scenarios - Sustainable development goals (SDGs) - Sustainable use
    If the world stays on its current development path, the state of biodiversity will continue to decline. This is due to projected further increases in pressures, most prominently habitat loss and climate change. In order to reduce these pressures, biodiversity conservation and restoration, as well as sustainable resource use, needs to be an integral part of sustainable development strategies of primary production sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and energy. This paper presents a model-based analysis of three alternative pathways described as Global Technology, Decentralized Solutions and Consumption Change to conserve biodiversity. Each of these pathways pursues international biodiversity goals together with a broader set of environmental sustainability objectives, including feeding the world, universal access to modern energy, limiting climate change and controlling air pollution. We show that different combinations of bio-physical measures, ecosystem management changes and behavioural changes can globally substantially reduce biodiversity loss in the coming decades (avoided Mean Species Abundance (MSA) loss is 4.4–4.8% MSA, compared to 9.5% MSA loss in the Trend), although the types of biodiversity conserved in the pathways will be different. The agricultural and forestry sectors together have until 2010 globally caused almost 60% of the total reduction in terrestrial biodiversity in MSA terms and 55% of the expected loss up to 2050. We show that increased productivity by technological improvements, increased use of ecological methods in agriculture and forestry, and consumption changes help to avoid biodiversity loss by 3.1–3.5% MSA. In addition, combinations of pathways, taking into account specific regional contexts, might result in even larger reduction of biodiversity loss. The changes needed in the agricultural and forestry sector to achieve this go well beyond current efforts to reduce their impact on biodiversity.
    Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model : Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation
    Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van; Lassaletta, Luis ; Gernaat, David E.H.J. ; Neumann-Hermans, Kathleen ; Harmsen, Mathijs ; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Biemans, Hester ; Sluis, Sietske van der; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2018
    Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 48 (2018). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 119 - 135.
    Bioenergy - Climate change mitigation - Integrated assessment - Land-use change - REDD - Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)
    Projected increases in population, income and consumption rates are expected to lead to rising pressure on the land system. Ambitions to limit global warming to 2 °C or even 1.5 °C could also lead to additional pressures from land-based mitigation measures such as bioenergy production and afforestation. To investigate these dynamics, this paper describes five elaborations of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework to produce regional and gridded scenarios up to the year 2100. Additionally, land-based climate change mitigation is modelled aiming for long-term mitigation targets including 1.5 °C. Results show diverging global trends in agricultural land in the baseline scenarios ranging from an expansion of nearly 826 Mha in SSP3 to a decrease of more than 305 Mha in SSP1 for the period 2010–2050. Key drivers are population growth, changes in food consumption, and agricultural efficiency. The largest changes take place in Sub-Saharan Africa in SSP3 and SSP4, predominantly due to high population growth. With low increases in agricultural efficiency this leads to expansion of agricultural land and reduced food security. Land use also plays a crucial role in ambitious mitigation scenarios. First, agricultural emissions could form a substantial component of emissions that cannot be fully mitigated. Second, bioenergy and reforestation are crucial to create net negative emissions reducing emissions in SSP2 in 2050 by 8.7 Gt CO2/yr and 1.9 Gt CO2/yr, respectively (1.5 °C scenario compared to baseline). This is achieved by expansion of bioenergy area (516 Mha in 2050) and reforestation. Expansion of agriculture for food production is reduced due to REDD policy (290 Mha in 2050) affecting food security especially in Sub-Saharan Africa indicating an important trade-off of land-based mitigation. This set of SSP land-use scenarios provides a comprehensive quantification of interacting trends in the land system, both socio-economic and biophysical. By providing high resolution data, the scenario output can improve interactions between climate research and impact studies.
    Managing LUC‐induced GHG emissions and price impacts from bioenergy under different scenarios
    Levin-Koopman, Jason ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Smeets, E.M.W. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Faaij, A. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Gerssen-Gondelach, S. ; Wicke, Birka - \ 2017
    EU
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