Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Increasing nitrogen export to sea: A scenario analysis for the Indus River
Wang, Mengru ; Tang, Ting ; Burek, P. ; Havlík, Petr ; Krisztin, Tamás ; Kroeze, Carolien ; Leclère, D. ; Strokal, Maryna ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Wang, Yaoping ; Langan, S. - \ 2019
Science of the Total Environment 694 (2019). - ISSN 0048-9697
Indus River - Nitrogen sources - Representative concentration pathways - River export of nitrogen (N) - Shared socio-economic pathways - Sub-basins

The Indus River Basin faces severe water quality degradation because of nutrient enrichment from human activities. Excessive nutrients in tributaries are transported to the river mouth, causing coastal eutrophication. This situation may worsen in the future because of population growth, economic development, and climate change. This study aims at a better understanding of the magnitude and sources of current (2010) and future (2050) river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) by the Indus River at the sub-basin scale. To do this, we implemented the MARINA 1.0 model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs). The model inputs for human activities (e.g., agriculture, land use) were mainly from the GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Model) models. Model inputs for hydrology were from the Community WATer Model (CWATM). For 2050, three scenarios combining Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs 1, 2 and 3) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 6.0) were selected. A novelty of this study is the sub-basin analysis of future N export by the Indus River for SSPs and RCPs. Result shows that river export of TDN by the Indus River will increase by a factor of 1.6–2 between 2010 and 2050 under the three scenarios. >90% of the dissolved N exported by the Indus River is from midstream sub-basins. Human waste is expected to be the major source, and contributes by 66–70% to river export of TDN in 2050 depending on the scenarios. Another important source is agriculture, which contributes by 21–29% to dissolved inorganic N export in 2050. Thus a combined reduction in both diffuse and point sources in the midstream sub-basins can be effective to reduce coastal water pollution by nutrients at the river mouth of Indus.

The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050
Pastor, A.V. ; Palazzo, A. ; Havlik, P. ; Biemans, H. ; Wada, Y. ; Obersteiner, M. ; Kabat, P. ; Ludwig, F. - \ 2019
Nature Sustainability 2 (2019). - ISSN 2398-9629 - p. 499 - 507.

In the face of meeting Sustainable Development Goals for the water–food–energy–ecosystems nexus, integrated assessments are a great means to measure the impact of global change on natural resources. In this study, we evaluate the impact of climate change with the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario and the impact of socioeconomics with the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 scenario on land use, water consumption and food trade under four water regulation policy scenarios (invest, exploit, environment and environment+). We used the Global Biosphere Management Model and constrained it with water availability, environmental flow requirements, and water use from agriculture, industry and households (simulated using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land model, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model and WaterGap model). Here, we show that an increase in land use by 100 Mha would be required to double food production by 2050, to meet projected food demands. International trade would need to nearly triple to meet future crop demands, with an additional 10–20% trade flow from water-abundant regions to water-scarce regions to sustain environmental flow requirements on a global scale.

The Shadow Price of Irrigation Water in Major Groundwater‐Depleting Countries
Bierkens, M.F.P. ; Reinhard, A.J. ; Bruijn, Jens A. de; Veninga, Willeke ; Wada, Yoshihide - \ 2019
Water Resources Research 55 (2019)5. - ISSN 0043-1397 - p. 4266 - 4287.
In many semiarid regions with irrigation, the depletion rate of groundwater resources has increased substantially during the last decades. A possible reason for this is that the price that users pay for their water does not reflect its scarcity and value. An alternative way to assess the perceived value of water is calculating its shadow price, which is defined here as the marginal value produced, and relates to the efficiency gain from current reallocation. Here we determine the shadow price of water used for irrigation for the most important groundwater‐depleting countries and for four staple crops and one cash crop. To quantify the shadow price, the relation between the output and the water input is represented using production functions. We use globally available panel data on country‐specific crop yields and prices together with crop‐specific water consumption, calculated with the global hydrological model PCR‐GLOBWB, to parameterize the production function by country and crop with econometric analyses.
Our results show that the variation of shadow prices for staple crops within several countries is high, indicating economically inefficient use of water resources, including nonrenewable groundwater. We also analyze the effects of reallocating irrigation water between crops, showing that changes in water
allocation could lead to either an increase in the economic efficiency of water use or large reductions in irrigation water consumption. Our study thus provides a hydroeconomic basis to stimulate sustainable use of finite groundwater resources globally.
High-Resolution Global Water Temperature Modeling
Wanders, Niko ; Vliet, Michelle T.H. van; Wada, Yoshihide ; Bierkens, Marc F.P. ; Beek, Ludovicus P.H. van - \ 2019
Water Resources Research 55 (2019)4. - ISSN 0043-1397 - p. 2760 - 2778.
global - high-resolution - modeling - water temperature

The temperature of river water plays a crucial role in many physical, chemical, and aquatic ecological processes. Despite the importance of having detailed information on this environmental variable at locally relevant scales (≤50 km), high-resolution simulations of water temperature on a large scale are currently lacking. We have developed the dynamical 1-D water energy routing model (DynWat), that solves both the energy and water balance, to simulate river temperatures for the period 1960–2014 at a nominal 10-km and 50-km resolution. The DynWat model accounts for surface water abstraction, reservoirs, riverine flooding, and formation of ice, enabling a realistic representation of the water temperature. We present a novel 10-km water temperature data set at the global scale for all major rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. Validated results against 358 stations worldwide indicate a decrease in the simulated root-mean-square error (0.2 °C) and bias (0.7 °C), going from 50- to 10-km simulations. We find an average global increase in water temperature of 0.16 °C per decade between 1960 and 2014, with more rapid warming toward 2014. Results show increasing trends for the annual daily maxima in the Northern Hemisphere (0.62 °C per decade) and the annual daily minima in the Southern Hemisphere (0.45 °C per decade) for 1960–2014. The high-resolution modeling framework not only improves the model performance, it also positively impacts the relevance of the simulations for regional-scale studies and impact assessments in a region without observations. The resulting global water temperature data set could help to improve the accuracy of decision-support systems that depend on water temperature estimates.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
Schewe, Jacob ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Reyer, Christopher ; Zhao, Fang ; Ciais, Philippe ; Elliott, Joshua ; Francois, Louis ; Huber, Veronika ; Lotze, Heike K. ; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ; Vliet, Michelle T.H. Van; Vautard, Robert ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Breuer, Lutz ; Büchner, Matthias ; Carozza, David A. ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Coll, Marta ; Deryng, Delphine ; Wit, Allard De; Eddy, Tyler D. ; Folberth, Christian ; Frieler, Katja ; Friend, Andrew D. ; Gerten, Dieter ; Gudmundsson, Lukas ; Hanasaki, Naota ; Ito, Akihiko ; Khabarov, Nikolay ; Kim, Hyungjun ; Lawrence, Peter ; Morfopoulos, Catherine ; Müller, Christoph ; Müller Schmied, Hannes ; Orth, René ; Ostberg, Sebastian ; Pokhrel, Yadu ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. ; Sakurai, Gen ; Satoh, Yusuke ; Schmid, Erwin ; Stacke, Tobias ; Steenbeek, Jeroen ; Steinkamp, Jörg ; Tang, Qiuhong ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tittensor, Derek P. ; Volkholz, Jan ; Wang, Xuhui ; Warszawski, Lila - \ 2019
Nature Communications 10 (2019). - ISSN 2041-1723
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
Model inter-comparison design for large-scale water quality models
Vliet, Michelle T.H. van; Flörke, Martina ; Harrison, John A. ; Hofstra, Nynke ; Keller, Virginie ; Ludwig, Fulco ; Spanier, J.E. ; Strokal, Maryna ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Wen, Yingrong ; Williams, Richard J. - \ 2019
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 36 (2019). - ISSN 1877-3435 - p. 59 - 67.

Several model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) have been carried out recently by the climate, hydrological, agricultural and other modelling communities to quantify modelling uncertainties and improve modelling systems. Here we focus on MIP design for large-scale water quality models. Water quality MIPs can be useful to improve our understanding of pollution problems and facilitate the development of harmonized estimates of current and future water quality. This can provide new opportunities for assessing robustness in estimates of water quality hotspots and trends, improve understanding of processes, pollution sources, water quality model uncertainties, and to identify priorities for water quality data collection and monitoring. Water quality MIP design should harmonize relevant model input datasets, use consistent spatial/temporal domains and resolutions, and similar output variables to improve understanding of water quality modelling uncertainties and provide harmonized water quality data that suit the needs of decision makers and other users.

Analysing trade-offs between SDGs related to water quality using salinity as a marker
Flörke, Martina ; Bärlund, Ilona ; Vliet, Michelle T.H. van; Bouwman, Alexander F. ; Wada, Yoshihide - \ 2019
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 36 (2019). - ISSN 1877-3435 - p. 96 - 104.

Salinisation can have different adverse impacts on water resources that are used for drinking, irrigation, or industrial purposes. In addition, salinisation in its turn is also strongly influenced by anthropogenic activities such as irrigation. This paper maps trade-offs between water quality (SDG 6.3) and other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) using salinisation as an example. Many interlinkages exist between SDG 6.3 and other SDGs as identified in the literature review part. These are however not yet fully addressed in studies applying a comprehensive systems approach or modelling frameworks. In order to find solution options for achieving a sustainable future the interlinkages between SDGs related to salinisation and its impacts need to be considered as they play a key role in mitigating impacts, prioritising measures for action and hence turning trade-offs into synergies.

Bridging global, basin and local-scale water quality modeling towards enhancing water quality management worldwide
Tang, Ting ; Strokal, Maryna ; Vliet, Michelle T.H. van; Seuntjens, Piet ; Burek, Peter ; Kroeze, Carolien ; Langan, Simon ; Wada, Yoshihide - \ 2019
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 36 (2019). - ISSN 1877-3435 - p. 39 - 48.

Global water quality (WQ) modeling is an emerging field. In this article, we identify the missing linkages between global and basin/local-scale WQ models, and discuss the possibilities to fill these gaps. We argue that WQ models need stronger linkages across spatial scales. This would help to identify effective scale-specific WQ management options and contribute to future development of global WQ models. Two directions are proposed to improve the linkages: nested multiscale WQ modeling towards enhanced water management, and development of next-generation global WQ models based-on basin/local-scale mechanistic understanding. We highlight the need for better collaboration among WQ modelers and policy-makers in order to deliver responsive water policies and management strategies across scales.

Global multi-pollutant modelling of water quality: scientific challenges and future directions
Strokal, M. ; Spanier, Emiel ; Kroeze, C. ; Koelmans, A.A. ; Florke, Martina ; Franssen, W.H.P. ; Hofstra, N. ; Langan, Simon ; Ting, Tang ; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Wada, Yoshihide ; Wang, M. ; Wijnen, Jikke van; Williams, R. - \ 2019
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 36 (2019). - ISSN 1877-3435 - p. 116 - 125.
Assessing global water quality issues requires a multi-pollutant modelling approach. We discuss scientific challenges and future directions for such modeling. Multi-pollutant river models need to integrate information on sources of pollutants such as plastic debris, nutrients, chemicals, pathogens, their effects and possible solutions. In this paper, we first explain what we consider multi-pollutant modelling. Second, we discuss scientific challenges in multi-pollutant modelling relating to consistent model inputs, modelling approaches and model evaluation. Next, we illustrate the potential of global multi-pollutant modelling for hotspot analyses. We show hotspots of river pollution with microplastics, nutrients, triclosan and Cryptosporidium in many sub-basins of Europe, North America and South Asia. Finally, we reflect on future directions for multi-pollutant modelling, and for linking model results to policy-making.
Comparison of gas chromatography/quadrupole time-of-flight and quadrupole Orbitrap mass spectrometry in anti-doping analysis : I. Detection of anabolic-androgenic steroids
Abushareeda, Wadha ; Tienstra, Marc ; Lommen, Arjen ; Blokland, Marco ; Sterk, Saskia ; Kraiem, Suhail ; Horvatovich, Peter ; Nielen, Michel ; Al-Maadheed, Muhammad ; Georgakopoulos, Costas - \ 2018
Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry 32 (2018)23. - ISSN 0951-4198 - p. 2055 - 2064.

Rationale: The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) encourages drug-testing laboratories to develop screening methods that can detect as many doping substances as possible in urine. The use of full-scan high-resolution acquisition (FS/HR) with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) for the detection of known and unknown trimethylsilyl (TMS) derivatives of anabolic-androgenic steroids (AAS) provides anti-doping testing bodies with a new analytical tool. Methods: The AAS were extracted from urine samples by generic liquid–liquid extraction, after enzymatic hydrolysis, and TMS derivatization. The extracted urine was analyzed by GC/Q-TOF and GC/Q-Orbitrap to compare the performance of the two instrument types for the detection of 46 AAS in human urine. The quantitation of endogenous anabolic steroids and the ability of the two analytical platforms to comply with the requirements for testing as part of the WADA Athlete Biological Passport (ABP) were also assessed. Results: The data presented show that the analytical performance for both instruments complies with the WADA specifications. The limits of detection (LODs) for both instruments are well below the WADA 50% Minimum Required Performance Levels. The mass errors in the current study for the GC/Q-Orbitrap platform are lower than those obtained for the GC/Q-TOF instrument. Conclusions: The data presented herein proved that both molecular profiling platforms can be used for antidoping screening. The mass accuracies are excellent in both instruments; however, the GC/Q-Orbitrap performs better as it provides higher resolution than the GC/Q-TOF platform.

Bridging global and basin scale water quality modeling towards enhancing global water quality modeling and management
Tang, Ting ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Strokal, M. ; Burek, P. ; Langan, Simon - \ 2018
Geophysical Research Abstracts 20 (2018). - ISSN 1029-7006 - 1 p.
High resolution full scan liquid chromatography mass spectrometry comprehensive screening in sports antidoping urine analysis
Abushareeda, Wadha ; Vonaparti, Ariadni ; Saad, Khadija Al ; Almansoori, Moneera ; Meloug, Mbarka ; Saleh, Amal ; Aguilera, Rodrigo ; Angelis, Yiannis ; Horvatovich, Peter L. ; Lommen, Arjen ; Alsayrafi, Mohammed ; Georgakopoulos, Costas - \ 2018
Journal of Pharmaceutical and Biomedical Analysis 151 (2018). - ISSN 0731-7085 - p. 10 - 24.
Full scan high-resolution - Human urine - Liquid chromatography - Mass spectrometry - Small molecule prohibited substances - Sulfo-conjugate steroids
The aim of this paper is to present the development and validation of a high-resolution full scan (HR-FS) electrospray ionization (ESI) liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole Orbitrap mass spectrometer (LC/Q/Orbitrap MS) platform for the screening of prohibited substances in human urine according to World Antidoping Agency (WADA) requirements. The method was also validated for quantitative analysis of six endogenous steroids (epitestosterone, testosterone, 5α-dihydrotestosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone, androsterone and etiocholanolone) in their intact sulfates form. The sample preparation comprised a combination of a hydrolyzed urine liquid–liquid extraction and the dilute & shoot addition of original urine in the extracted aliquot. The HR-FS MS acquisition mode with Polarity Switching was applied in combination of the Quadrupole-Orbitrap mass filter. The HR-FS acquisition of analytical signal, for known and unknown small molecules, allows the inclusion of all analytes detectable with LC–MS for antidoping investigations to identify the use of known or novel prohibited substances and metabolites after electronic data files’ reprocessing. The method has been validated to be fit-for-purpose for the antidoping analysis.
The shadow price of fossil groundwater
Bierkens, M.F.P. ; Reinhard, A.J. ; Bruijn, J.A. de; Wada, Yoshihide - \ 2017
Balancing food security and water demand for freshwater ecosystems
Pastor, Amandine ; Palazzo, A. ; Havlik, P. ; Obersteiner, Michael ; Biemans, Hester ; Wada, Y. ; Kabat, Pavel ; Ludwig, F. - \ 2017
Geophysical Research Abstracts 19 (2017). - ISSN 1029-7006
Quality matters for water scarcity
Vliet, Michelle T.H. van; Florke, Martina ; Wada, Yoshihide - \ 2017
Nature Geoscience 10 (2017)11. - ISSN 1752-0894 - p. 800 - 802.
Quality requirements for water differ by intended use. Sustainable management of water resources for different uses will not only need to account for demand in water quantity, but also for water temperature and salinity, nutrient levels and other pollutants.
Human-water interface in hydrological modelling : Current status and future directions
Wada, Yoshihide ; Bierkens, Marc F.P. ; Roo, Ad de; Dirmeyer, Paul A. ; Famiglietti, James S. ; Hanasaki, Naota ; Konar, Megan ; Liu, Junguo ; Schmied, Hannes Möller ; Oki, Taikan ; Pokhrel, Yadu ; Sivapalan, Murugesu ; Troy, Tara J. ; Dijk, Albert I.J.M. Van; Emmerik, Tim Van; Huijgevoort, Marjolein H.J. Van; Lanen, Henny A.J. van; Vörösmarty, Charles J. ; Wanders, Niko ; Wheater, Howard - \ 2017
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 (2017)8. - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 4169 - 4193.

Over recent decades, the global population has been rapidly increasing and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes to an unprecedented extent. The phenomenal growth of the human footprint has significantly modified hydrological processes in various ways (e.g. irrigation, artificial dams, and water diversion) and at various scales (from a watershed to the globe). During the early 1990s, awareness of the potential for increased water scarcity led to the first detailed global water resource assessments. Shortly thereafter, in order to analyse the human perturbation on terrestrial water resources, the first generation of largescale hydrological models (LHMs) was produced. However, at this early stage few models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities, including water use and reservoir regulation, and even fewer models distinguished water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Since the early 2000s, a growing number of LHMs have incorporated human impacts on the hydrological cycle, yet the representation of human activities in hydrological models remains challenging. In this paper we provide a synthesis of progress in the development and application of human impact modelling in LHMs. We highlight a number of key challenges and discuss possible improvements in order to better represent the human-water interface in hydrological models.

Gas chromatographic quadrupole time-of-flight full scan high resolution mass spectrometric screening of human urine in antidoping analysis
Abushareeda, Wadha ; Lyris, Emmanouil ; Kraiem, Suhail ; Wahaibi, Aisha Al ; Alyazidi, Sameera ; Dbes, Najib ; Lommen, Arjen ; Nielen, Michel ; Horvatovich, Peter L. ; Alsayrafi, Mohammed ; Georgakopoulos, Costas - \ 2017
Journal of Chromatography. B, Analytical technologies in the biomedical and life sciences 1063 (2017). - ISSN 1570-0232 - p. 74 - 83.
Anabolic steroids - Full scan high resolution - Gas chromatography - Human urine - Mass spectrometry

This paper presents the development and validation of a high-resolution full scan (FS) electron impact ionization (EI) gas chromatography coupled to quadrupole Time-of-Flight mass spectrometry (GC/QTOF) platform for screening anabolic androgenic steroids (AAS) in human urine samples. The World Antidoping Agency (WADA) enlists AAS as prohibited doping agents in sports, and our method has been developed to comply with the qualitative specifications of WADA to be applied for the detection of sports antidoping prohibited substances, mainly for AAS. The method also comprises of the quantitative analysis of the WADA's Athlete Biological Passport (ABP) endogenous steroidal parameters. The applied preparation of urine samples includes enzymatic hydrolysis for the cleavage of the Phase II glucuronide conjugates, generic liquid–liquid extraction and trimethylsilyl (TMS) derivatization steps. Tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) acquisition was applied on few selected ions to enhance the specificity and sensitivity of GC/TOF signal of few compounds. The full scan high resolution acquisition of analytical signal, for known and unknown TMS derivatives of AAS provides the antidoping system with a new analytical tool for the detection designer drugs and novel metabolites, which prolongs the AAS detection, after electronic data files’ reprocessing. The current method is complementary to the respective liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (LC/MS) methodology widely used to detect prohibited molecules in sport, which cannot be efficiently ionized with atmospheric pressure ionization interface.

The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models
Zhao, Fang ; Veldkamp, Ted I.E. ; Frieler, Katja ; Schewe, Jacob ; Ostberg, Sebastian ; Willner, Sven ; Schauberger, Bernhard ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Schmied, Hannes Müller ; Portmann, Felix T. ; Leng, Guoyong ; Huang, Maoyi ; Liu, Xingcai ; Tang, Qiuhong ; Hanasaki, Naota ; Biemans, Hester ; Gerten, Dieter ; Satoh, Yusuke ; Pokhrel, Yadu ; Stacke, Tobias ; Ciais, Philippe ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Ducharne, Agnes ; Guimberteau, Matthieu ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Kim, Hyungjun ; Yamazaki, Dai - \ 2017
Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017)7. - ISSN 1748-9318
daily runoff - flood - global hydrological models - GRDC - ISIMIP - peak river discharge - river routing
Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge - which is crucial in flood simulations - has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971-2010) within the ISIMIP2a project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about 2/3 of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.
Intercomparison of global river discharge simulations focusing on dam operation - Multiple models analysis in two case-study river basins, Missouri-Mississippi and Green-Colorado
Masaki, Yoshimitsu ; Hanasaki, Naota ; Biemans, Hester ; Müller Schmied, Hannes ; Tang, Qiuhong ; Wada, Yoshihide ; Gosling, Simon N. ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Hijioka, Yasuaki - \ 2017
Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017)5. - ISSN 1748-9318
flood control - flow regimes - reservoir - river discharge

We performed an intercomparison of river discharge regulated by dams under four meteorological forcings among five global hydrological models for a historical period by simulation. This is the first global multimodel intercomparison study on dam-regulated river flow. Although the simulations were conducted globally, the Missouri-Mississippi and Green-Colorado Rivers were chosen as case-study sites in this study. The hydrological models incorporate generic schemes of dam operation, not specific to a certain dam. We examined river discharge on a longitudinal section of river channels to investigate the effects of dams on simulated discharge, especially at the seasonal time scale. We found that the magnitude of dam regulation differed considerably among the hydrological models. The difference was attributable not only to dam operation schemes but also to the magnitude of simulated river discharge flowing into dams. That is, although a similar algorithm of dam operation schemes was incorporated in different hydrological models, the magnitude of dam regulation substantially differed among the models. Intermodel discrepancies tended to decrease toward the lower reaches of these river basins, which means model dependence is less significant toward lower reaches. These case-study results imply that, intermodel comparisons of river discharge should be made at different locations along the river's course to critically examine the performance of hydrological models because the performance can vary with the locations.

Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change
Vliet, M.T.H. van; Beek, L.P.H. van; Eisner, S. ; Flörke, M. ; Wada, Y. ; Bierkens, M.F.P. - \ 2016
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 40 (2016). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 156 - 170.
Climate change - Cooling water - Global hydrological models - Hydropower - Water resources - Water temperature

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971–2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18–33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11–14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41–51% (RCP8.5–SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

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