Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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A Summary of Research Activities from the AgMIP Potato Crop Modeling Intercomparison Pilot
Fleisher, D.H. ; Condori, B. ; Quiroz, R. ; Alva, A. ; Asseng, S. ; Barreda, Carolina ; Berghuijs, H.N.C. ; Bindi, M. ; Boote, K.J. ; Craigon, J. ; Fangmeier, A. ; Ferrise, Roberto ; Franke, A.C. ; Gayler, S. ; Govindakrishnan, P.M. ; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne ; Hoogenboom, G. ; Kremer, P. ; Kroes, J. ; Naresh Kumar, S. ; Merante, Paolo ; Nendel, C. ; Olesen, J.E. ; Parker, P.S. ; Pleijel, H. ; Raes, Dirk ; Raymundo, Rubi ; Reidsma, P. ; Ruana, A. ; Silva, J.V. ; Stella, T. ; Stockle, Claudio ; Supit, I. ; Evert, F.K. van; Vandermeiren, K. ; Vanuytrecht, Eline ; Vorne, V. ; Wolf, J. ; Woli, Prem - \ 2018
Activity-1 of the potato crop model intercomparison pilot was recently completed and focused on quantifying multi-model uncertainty to climate responses when using common data sets from low-and high-input management sites. Median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicatingobserved yield across all sites. Uncertainty among models averaged 15% higher for low-versus high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41 and 23% for yield and ET respectively as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Activity-2 research is on-going and tests the capability of multiple models to mimic effects of elevated C concentration on potato yields measured at eight different locations in Europe. A subset from observed OTC and FACE data was used to initially calibrate the models. This research will also evaluate the stability of the models’ calibration with respect to changes in geographic location, as the same variety was used in all locations. This presentation will summarize the Activity-1 results and discuss the current status of Activity-2 investigations.
A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels
Fleisher, David H. ; Condori, Bruno ; Quiroz, Roberto ; Alva, Ashok ; Asseng, Senthold ; Barreda, Carolina ; Bindi, Marco ; Boote, Kenneth J. ; Ferrise, Roberto ; Franke, Angelinus C. ; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M. ; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne ; Hoogenboom, Gerrit ; Naresh Kumar, Soora ; Merante, Paolo ; Nendel, Claas ; Olesen, Jorgen E. ; Parker, Phillip S. ; Raes, Dirk ; Raymundo, Rubi ; Ruane, Alex C. ; Stockle, Claudio ; Supit, Iwan ; Vanuytrecht, Eline ; Wolf, Joost ; Woli, Prem - \ 2017
Global Change Biology 23 (2017)3. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 1258 - 1281.
A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach.
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