Adaptation of the AFRC wheat phenology model for Dutch conditions.

Abstract

The AFRC model describes the phenology of the wheat plant in relation to its environment in terms of the effect of temp., vernalization and photoperiod on development. In 1976-79 four sowing date experiments were carried out in which the developmental stages were scored at regular time intervals. Two of these experiments, containing 35 sowings of 1 cv. over 2 seasons, were used to evaluate and improve the model. Variation in prediction of anthesis was used as a measure of the 'success' of the model. The unchanged AFRC model predicted anthesis with a coeff. of variation of 5.0%. After several parameter changes this was reduced to 2.8%. When the adapted model was used to predict all developmental stages scored in all 4 experiments, it gave good results for anthesis and maturity. Coeff. of variation were high for stages before stem elongation. Exclusion of extreme sowing dates improved the results of the model. (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)