Scenarios of technical and institutional change in Dutch dairy farming

Abstract

Scenario analysis was used to assess consistent sets of future circumstances in Dutch dairy farming. The fields of interest were technical and institutional change. Technical change included improvement in fodder and milk production. Institutional change included changes in environmental policy and in market and price policy. All key factors were historically analysed and forecasts were made for the year 2005 which were grouped into 4 scenarios. The scenarios were governed by environmental policy and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Moderate and severe variants were distinguished for environmental policy; and for the CAP, price support and 2-price variants were identified.