1s1b: African pastoralist systems may be historically resilient, but can they become circular in a climate-changed future?

Abstract

Pastoralist agroecosystems have been described as resilient to past climate variations due to human adaptation via movement and resource sharing. Nations with significant pastoralist populations have expressed concerns that these populations may be increasingly vulnerable to climate and socio-economic drivers with increasing uncertainty in the near- and longer-term future. We use a coupled landscape/agent model to test the hypothesis that transformation of pastoral livestock systems to a more circular exemplar will enhance the sustainability and resilience at the production, landscape and community scales. We ask two critical research questions to explore this proposition: (1) What elements of pastoralism contribute to present resilience? (2) What system elements need to evolve into a more resilient and circular future?