3s1: The future of Dutch and EU agriculture in a global context

Abstract

This study focuses on assessing, by applying the MAGNET model, the consequences of a set of core issues that will likely the determine the  future of Dutch and EU agricultural economy, in the context of the Green deal and a world moving towards achieving ambitious reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, reducing food loss and waste, diet changes, and changes in preferences to local products (partly due to  COVID-19). A core component of the study is to assess the consequences of the EU tackling these ambitious challenges unilaterally, or, in contrast, in lock-step with a global greening movement. If the EU goes greens unilaterally the impact of CO2 compensating import tariffs is considered to reduce leakage effects and maintain competitiveness of EU agriculture. The impact of the scenario’s was calculated on a wide range of indicators (GDP, value added, employment, production, bilateral trade flows, land use, GHG emissions, agricultural prices, production factor income, etc.).