3s1: Assessment of the baseline development of the EU Biobased plastic sector: exploring business-as-usual and alternative market and recycling options


  • S. Moghayer
  • W. J. van Zeist
  • H. Bartelings


biobased plastic, economic impact, value chain analysis, baseline evaluation


In this paper a baseline scenario related to Biobased Plastic (BBP) sector in the EU is developed and evaluated. The current BBP focal issues and existing measures in place in the EU are implemented in a business as usual (BAU) baseline. To provide a more compressive assessment, these issues and measures are then analyzed in the context of assumptions regarding the future of the EU (2040) including trends on demography, innovation, productivity and economic growth, and other related EU policy measures. For this, we use the ‘Middle Road’ scenario from the IPCC-based Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). Finally, MAGNET model from WR integrated modelling toolbox is used to project a BAU evolution of the BBP sector in the EU and the expected sustainability towards 2050.






Sessions 3s1: Modelling the circular economy with sectoral and macro ...